Rumor 40% Capacity Soon? What if I Told You That We’re Already There

[ParentsOf4]

You do realize wait times are always inflated... if you're in line waiting for a ride they are losing money from you.

The historically inflated Standby times have much to do with Guest satisfaction, an important metric for corporate Disney. After all, a happy customer tends to spend more.

Essentially, a Guest is more happy if they wait in line for less than the posted Standby time; more unhappy if they wait in line for longer than the posted Standby time.

There also is manipulation of the Standby time towards the end of the evening. Disney wants to close up and needs to discourage Guests from entering lines at closing.

The original FastPass was (among other things) intended to result in increased Guest spending (what Disney refers to as Per Capita Guest Spending). The idea was that you'd spend money elsewhere while you were waiting for your Return Time. The reality was that most Guests got one Return Time and simply jumped into a second Standby line, largely negating Disney's dreams of higher revenue.

So yes, inflated wait times in prior years were largely about money, although Disney also was genuinely trying to make you happier too.

Post COVID, the sometimes grossly inflated Standby times have much to do with Disney's inability to accurately collect data and model socially distanced lines that snake far beyond the pre-COVID end of the line.

You know you have a problem when the line for Slinky Dog Dash runs all the way to Animation Courtyard.

 

[IMDREW]

I do have a question, me being unable to visit this time bc of border closures. I know the lines are freakishly long (space-wise) at the moment, but does this mean that it does keep on moving? I hate standing in lines where the line almost doesn't move. I'd rather stay in a longer line that keeps moving.

 

[Tuvalu]

I do have a question, me being unable to visit this time bc of border closures. I know the lines are freakishly long (space-wise) at the moment, but does this mean that it does keep on moving? I hate standing in lines where the line almost doesn't move. I'd rather stay in a longer line that keeps moving.

The line is always moving unless the attraction vehicles are being sanitized, which causes a 7-10 minute delay.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The line is always moving unless the attraction vehicles are being sanitized, which causes a 7-10 minute delay.

Or the line stops when the person in front of you stops to send a long text message.

 

[marni1971]

Or the line stops when the person in front of you stops to send a long text message.

I find a polite cough from behind gets them moving. Especially in these times.

 

[DISR]

I do have a question, me being unable to visit this time bc of border closures. I know the lines are freakishly long (space-wise) at the moment, but does this mean that it does keep on moving? I hate standing in lines where the line almost doesn't move. I'd rather stay in a longer line that keeps moving.

The only plus to the extended lines is the feeling of almost constant progress. Until you get close to the ride, you almost do no stand still...you are moving. The line for Frozen was back into the China pavilion, so my family got in line and I went to grab a beer for my wife and I to share. By the time I got back, we had to chug it to finish before entering the building. There are also also long lines for food and entry into retail spaces at times. Progress on those lines is less predictable.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

You can't have half a person... lol

Pretty sure your numbers are way off as well.

Well, lets see. Max at MK is ~90k, EPCOT 110k, DAK and DHS 60k each. So that checks out. There are approx 35,000 hotel rooms on Disney property so that checks out.

Average occupancy I've read is over 3 and under 4 so as an approximate that checks out. To put it another way - If you own a hotel that has 2 rooms - and next week you rent out one room to a party of 4, and the other room to a party of 3 - What would be the average occupancy per room of your hotel for that week?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Just a random musing. Can anyone here envision a day where the only way you'll be able to get into a park is if you stay on-property? Seems to me 35,000 room nights at an average of 3.5/per room equates to 122k Guests. The 4 parks max out at about 320k. Which would work out to ~ 38% (assuming 100% occupancy)

But why would they want only 38% capacity?
Or are you saying to do this to reduce capacity during COVID restrictions?

Forcing folks to pay for a room plus a ticket to get into the park would do two things; 1 make more money, 2 reduce capacity.

Maybe the room key becomes the ONLY ticket media!!! You want in, pay for a room! Money, Money, Money for Disney

Post COVID I do have a feeling we will see big changes in WDW APs:
Maybe all APs will require a reservation.
Mabe all APs will have blackouts.

Only time will tell. We are in the time of the big reset....

 

[wdwmagic]

. Some restaurants have you packed in tighter than the pre-COVID era and it's genuinely dangerous.

Any that you can name for us?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Yesterday (January 4) at Disney's Hollywood Studios was its usual crowded self, but even more so. Based on other recent trips, the increase from 35% to 40% is believable.

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Mickey Mouse is more powerful than the COVID pandemic..

 

[MisterPenguin]

Mickey Mouse is more powerful than the COVID pandemic..

Rodents facilitating plagues, again.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

But why would they want only 38% capacity?
Or are you saying to do this to reduce capacity during COVID restrictions?

Forcing folks to pay for a room plus a ticket to get into the park would do two things; 1 make more money, 2 reduce capacity.

Maybe the room key becomes the ONLY ticket media!!! You want in, pay for a room! Money, Money, Money for Disney

Post COVID I do have a feeling we will see big changes in WDW APs:
Maybe all APs will require a reservation.
Mabe all APs will have blackouts.

Only time will tell. We are in the time of the big reset....

Yeah, mainly due to restricted capacity. Just a thought. Not saying they are thinking of it or would even entertain it. From my perspective I would hate to see something like that happen. Disney would have too much control and be able to bury things into almost an all inclusive type product that would guarantee minimum spend - they'd also have a very captive audience. As an example:

Family of 4 currently (say value resort for 7 days on the cheap):

Room $150 x 7 = $1050
Tickets $550 x 4 = $2200
Meals and snacks for 4 (basic QS) - $200 x 7 = $1400
So total of - $4450 for a basic no frills trip.

IMO Disney could easily switch and price the value resort at say $699 per night which would include the room, tickets (with guaranteed admission), and low tier DDP. Alcohol, activities and merchandise would be additional. So in that scenario you have a guaranteed spend of $4893. Plus revenue from any additional alcoholic beverages, activities, and merchandise purchases. If you are paying for that type of package, your propensity to visit Uni or SeaWorld during your trip also diminishes.

 

[networkpro]

Space shortage at Studios is a short term issue, not a long term one. Disney needs to increase capacity in the park without increasing the number of people allowed in.

That's pretty difficult unless they bring back or institute more shows and dining as they already have the physical infrastructure built. Something to take care of all those bodies that are just standing in lines. I realize its still a matter of per capita revenue vs labor cost.

 

[lentesta]

While that was true today, it was not true Sunday through Tuesday, except for Soarin.

I dunno, man. Here are the graphs from Sunday through Tuesday for BTMRR and EE, along with the ratio of actual waits to posteds.

Big Thunder's actuals for Sunday through Tuesday were 44%, 48%, and 52% of the posteds.

Big Thunder Mountain on Monday.

Big Thunder on Tuesday.

Here's Everest for the same three days. Actual wait times were 44%, 79%, and 48% of posted. Note the significant downtime on the 4th, with the 79% ratio.

 

[_caleb]

I don't think WDW knows how to accurately predict wait times absent FP+.

They certainly aren't handing out the Red Tracker chits anymore.

Maybe they should! We always loved getting picked to carry a Red Tag (though I’m not sure why). They were certainly accurate, and not fooled by distanced queue lengths (as one posted suggested) and don’t require MagicBands, smartphones, etc.

I always thought this would have been a key application of the shoe-cam tracking tech they registered a few years ago:

Disney Wants to Track Park Visitors By Secretly Photographing Their Shoes Like a Creep

With millions of tourists visiting its theme parks around the world each year, it makes sense that Disney would want to track how visitors move about its

gizmodo.com

 

[dreday3]

I don't know where to ask this - a new survey went out about Animal Kingdom specifically.

How have they been doing crowd-wise? Are there any rumors/rumblings about reducing hrs/days/attractions in the future for AK?

 

[Texas84]

Any that you can name for us?

Pecos Bill had the blocked tables but no one was distancing walking around. Felt crowded to me.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The parks were far busier last week than I'd seen in a while. The most staggering thing to me during my visit, though, was how little Disney is nudging their operating participants at Disney Springs and elsewhere to follow their own health & safety model. Some restaurants have you packed in tighter than the pre-COVID era and it's genuinely dangerous.

Packed just like the “outdoor” dining in NYC, it’s about 6:25 in .. See here

 

[Miss Bella]

Packed just like the “outdoor” dining in NYC, it’s about 6:25 in .. See here

Lol. I don’t think I’d feel safe eating in the street in NYC.

 

[UNCgolf]

Disney can never get the wait times right. It’s great to see a 45 min posted wait time was only 14 min! It seems Disney intentionally over states wait times which is good! You have a less than expected wait and folks who look at the posted wait may also decide to not get in the queue, also good!

If Disney isn't/hasn't been inflating the wait times for a long time, they're being foolish for this exact reason. I'm very sure they have, though.

There's almost no downside for them to say wait times are longer than they actually are, and plenty of upside. Doing so should create an overall increase in guest satisfaction.