2021 Box Office Tracking

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Here is what Deadline had to say about the opening day totals of Encanto and House of Gucci:

"Encanto opened to $7.5M on Wednesday, which isn’t the best of starts from one of the studio’s animated movies over Thanksgiving, it’s even under its low-grossing titles Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur which saw a $9.76M Wednesday for a $39.1M opening weekend, $55.4M 5-day. The industry outlook here for Encanto is $26.1M over 3-days, and $38.6M over 5 days. Pic’s opening day includes yesterday’s previews.

What will change these estimates? Or that matter any of this weekend’s estimates during the pandemic? If Thanksgiving, which is typically a down-day at the box office, performs better than expected, and if Black Friday, a vibrant day for moviegoing, soars. Industry estimates figure that the 5-day holiday will ring up $140.1M, -46% from 2019’s 5-day Thanksgiving of $258.5M, when Disney’s Frozen 2 ruled the Earth.

...

In third, UAR and MGM’s House of Gucci is posting a solid result for an adult-driven movie with a long running time during the pandemic with a $4.2M opening day. Note that Ridley Scott’s previous movie, The Last Duel, which ran 2 hours and 32 minutes (to Gucci’s 2 hours and 37 minutes) posted an opening weekend of $4.75M and stopped making money at $10.8M. House of Gucci‘s opening frame will beat the entire gross of the filmmaker’s previous title with a projected $14.3M 3-day, $21.7M 5-day. All of this is great news as the movie begins its ascent during awards season. Moviegoers seem to enjoy the Lady Gaga, Al Pacino, Jared Leto and Adam Driver drama thriller better than the critics with a B+ CinemaScore and 88% Rotten Tomatoes audience score. The brow wrinkles as to why the critics embraced Last Duel more over House of Gucci: The former was the portrayal of a rape from three different standpoints, two of them being men and it really put off awards season voters. Critics gave Last Duel 85% certified fresh, while they’ve been harder on House of Gucci at 62% fresh. Nonetheless, there’s a divide between critics and audiences, and it appears moviegoers are winning."



I think most audience goers see the critics as jokes at this point. Their views with audiences rarely seem to align.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
I think most audience goers see the critics as jokes at this point. Their views with audiences rarely seem to align.

They never did.

But now there's much more hype and publicity surrounding reviews themselves, and the barrier for who RT counts as one of the critics has been lowered to include everyone from traditional trades to random bloggers.
 

MarvelCharacterNerd

Well-Known Member
The problem with waiting for things to show up on Disney+ also is forgetting to watch once they're finally on there.

I keep forgetting Jungle Cruise is on my watchlist though I do mean to get around to it.

I will try Encanto and will watch Eternals though for sure once they hit streaming.

Still not sure what I'm going to do about No Way Home. Where have the other Spidey movies wound up streaming?
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
The problem with waiting for things to show up on Disney+ also is forgetting to watch once they're finally on there.

I keep forgetting Jungle Cruise is on my watchlist though I do mean to get around to it.

I will try Encanto and will watch Eternals though for sure once they hit streaming.

Still not sure what I'm going to do about No Way Home. Where have the other Spidey movies wound up streaming?
No word on any streaming for NWH. I don't think it is scheduled to be on any streaming. Definitely not in the beginning. And being what it is (a MONSTER hit), it will likely not be out for home until the spring. There's no deal with D+ yet. This will probably be the movie I get on 4k blu ray when it comes out. I haven't seen a Spidey flick in the theaters since Spidey 3 in 2007. Love me some spidey, but it just didn't work out.

But the box office for NWH is going to absolutely crush it! I expect somewhere around Rogue One or Rise of Skywalker numbers. For a pandemic and compared to the other spidey flicks, that is out of this world. Holland and his group bring a lot of fun, joy, laughter, and light-heartedness to the franchise and make for a really fun time. Add Strange to it and you can't go wrong!
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Where have the other Spidey movies wound up streaming?
Usually, the Spider-Man movies go to Starz for a limited time. As of right now, the three Maguire movies and TASM are on the service. Far From Home was on the service for about a year, but they took it off this past summer.

Disney did make a deal with Sony to bring their titles to Disney+/Hulu after their theatrical and Netflix run for 2022-2026 releases back in April. Disney also got the streaming rights to all Spider-Man movies (as well as Jumanji, Hotel Transylvania, etc.), and Variety said that those and other Sony titles could make their way to platform as early as June. Obviously, that did not happen. However, they could still be coming!


 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
The Starz deal ends in 2022, leaving Lionsgate (which owns Starz) as the only big studio feeding that streamer/cable channel with new and exclusive content. This is pretty much the death knell for Starz and its execs have been openly hinting they're more than ready to be purchased by a bigger player in the streaming field.

Which is pretty much what is happening with Epix that lost their Paramount deal (which is now feeding CBS/Paramount+) and only had MGM left (which has a deep library, but few new titles). It is being bought out by Amazon, which currently doesn't have a big established studio providing it with content (it buys from smaller independent studios).

I'm surprise Apple+ isn't circling Starz, since it, too, doesn't have a big studio feeding its library nor new titles. Apple+ thought it could survive by producing high-tier content and not dealing with licensing rights of older content as a library. They've learned that such a strategy doesn't produce enough new content to keep people interested.

Sony used to send their Live Action flix to Starz and their Animation to Netflix. Now, all of Sony (live and animated) gets the first pay window after the theatrical window on Netflix. Disney/Hulu gets the second pay window after Netflix (which is supposed to start in 2022, but some titles have been released earlier... I think).

Meanwhile, Netflix lost Universal as an exclusive feeder since it will start to exclusive feed Peacock (NBC/Universal/Comcast).

20th Century used to feed HBO/HBOmax, but, now, of course, feeds D+/Hulu. HBO also lost their Lionsgate/Summit feed to Starz, and is left only with Warner Bros and Discovery as their big 'feeders.'
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Projections have been raised after Thanksgiving Day totals for both Encanto and House of Gucci.

Encanto:
Thursday Projections: 3-day of $26.1M and 5-day of $38.6M
Friday Projections: 3-day of $32.9M and 5-day of $46.6M

House of Gucci:
Thursday Projections: 3-day of $14.3M and 5-day of $21.7M
Friday Projections: 3-day of $15.4M and 5-day of $23M

Deadline expects today, Black Friday, to be a big day for moviegoing.

 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Projections have been raised after Thanksgiving Day totals for both Encanto and House of Gucci.

Encanto:
Thursday Projections: 3-day of $26.1M and 5-day of $38.6M
Friday Projections: 3-day of $32.9M and 5-day of $46.6M

House of Gucci:
Thursday Projections: 3-day of $14.3M and 5-day of $21.7M
Friday Projections: 3-day of $15.4M and 5-day of $23M

Deadline expects today, Black Friday, to be a big day for moviegoing.


A really good showing for Gucci - 23M 5 day. The biggest adult drama in the Covid era, all but annihilating others that have come out. Gaga is a box office draw, no question.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Looks like Black Friday was a big moviegoing weekend. However, projections were lowered for both Encanto and House of Gucci. Keep in mind that, according to Deadline, "it’s always been a challenge for box office analysts to crunch five-day projections; they’re either too low or too high, and the real story begins to happen on a day like yesterday and certainly today with family matinees." With that said, these totals are never final.

Encanto:
Thursday Projections: 3-day of $26.1M and 5-day of $38.6M
Friday Projections: 3-day of $32.9M and 5-day of $46.6M
Saturday Projections: 3-day of $28.7M and 5-day between $39M-$42M

House of Gucci:
Thursday Projections: 3-day of $14.3M and 5-day of $21.7M
Friday Projections: 3-day of $15.4M and 5-day of $23M
Saturday Projections: 3-day of $14.9M and 5-day of $22.5M

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The final estimations are in! It looks like both Encanto and House of Gucci were still able to stay in their projections and make a solid amount of cash.

Encanto has earned a $40.3M 5-day gross ($27M 3-day) domestically and a $70 million global start. This total is a decent start for the new film. Plus, with no major new movies coming out next week, it gives room for families who missed it this weekend to see it this coming weekend. Who missed it this weekend? There are two groups. The first are the people waiting to see it on Disney+ this Christmas Eve, so that crowd will most likely not help next weekend. Then, there is the group that Deadline is saying the main problem. A large majority of the Thanksgiving crowd went to see Ghostbusters: Afterlife. The 4th installment in the growing franchise earned a $35.3M 5-day gross ($24.5M 3-day). It is very clear that these two family flicks split their audience. Deadline is saying that these totals should be even closer when the final totals come out tomorrow so stay tuned for that.

Switching gears to House of Gucci, it is did very well! Deadline is reporting that the film had "the best opening for a drama in the last two years at the box office with $14.2M over 3-days and $21.8M over 5, the last being Sony’s Little Women over Christmas 2019 ($16.7M 3-day, $29.2M 5-day)." It looks like the star power worked after all, and Gaga should move to the top of the list for many studios.

The other winner of the weekend was Paul Thomas Anderson’s teen comedy Licorice Pizza. The film's specialty opening of $335K allowed the film to have a stellar $83.8K average from just four screens in New York and LA. The film goes wide this Christmas.

Non-Top 10 Disney numbers (only for the 3-day totals; will update with 5-day totals later today):
  • The French Dispatch: $622,000 (-38%)
    • Domestic Total: $14.4M
  • Ron’s Gone Wrong: $182,000 (-81%)
    • Domestic Total: $22.7M
    • Harsh fall due to announcement of Disney+/HBOMax release date and two new family movies being in play
  • Antlers $57,000 (-85%)
    • Domestic Total: $10.5M
  • The Last Duel: $18,000 (-58%)
    • Domestic Total: $10.8M
  • Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings: $14,000 (-71%)
    • Domestic Total: $224.5M
  • Free Guy: $12,000 (-33%)
    • Domestic Total: $121.6M

1.) Encanto (Dis) 3,980 theaters, Wed $7.5M/Thurs $5.8M/Fri $11M/Sat $9.7M/Sun $6.3M/ 3-day $27M, 5-day $40.3M/Wk 1

2.) Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) 4,315 theaters, Wed $5.4M (+16% from Tuesday)/Thurs $5.3M/Fri $9.75M/Sat $9.36M/Sun $5.8M/3-day: $24.5M (-44%)/5-day $35.25M/Total: $87.8M/Wk 2

3.) House of Gucci (UAR/MGM) 3,441 theaters, Wed. $4.2M/Thurs $3.39M/Fri $5.7M/Sat $5.3M/Sun $3.1M/3-day $14.2M, 5-day $21.8M/Wk 1

4.) Eternals (Dis) 3,165 (-890) theaters, Wed $1.9M (+12%)/Thurs $1.6M/Fri $3.1M/Sat $3.1M/Sun $1.7M/ 3-day $7.9M (-30%), 5-day $11.4M/Total $150.6M/Wk 4

5.)Resident Evil: Raccoon City (Sony) 2,803 theaters, Wed. $2.5M/Thurs $1M/Fri $2M/Sat $2.1M/Sun $1.16M/3-day $5.275M, 5-day $8.8M/Wk 1

6.) Clifford the Big Red Dog (Par) 3,331 (-297) theaters, Wed $1.3M (0%)/Thurs $725K/Fri $1.96M/Sat $1.875M/Sun $1M/ 3-day $4.875M (-40%)/5-day $6.9M/Total $42.8M/Wk 3

7.)King Richard (WB) 3,302 theaters, Wed $639K (-7%)/Thurs $805K/Fri $1.3M/3-day $3.3M (-33%)/5-day$4.8M/Total $11.45M/Wk 2

8.) Dune (WB/Leg) 1,312 (-1,155) theaters, Wed $493K (+3%)/Thurs $400K/Fri $800K/3-day $2.165M (-32%), 5-day $3M/ Total $102.2M/Wk 6

9.) No Time to Die (UAR) 1,342 (-1,065) theaters, Wed $366K (-13%)/Thurs $427K/Fri $708K/Sat $653K/Sun $392K/ 3-day $1.75M (-37%), 5-day: $2.546M/Total $158.1M/Wk 8

10.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 1,537 (-693) theaters, Wed $335K (+2%), Thurs $285K/Fri $615K/Sat $645K/Sun $305K/ 3-day $1.57M (-46%), 5-day: $2.2M/ Total $209.5M/Wk 9

11.) Belfast (Foc) 1,128 (+544) theaters, Wed $170K (+36%),Thurs $150K/ Fri $380K/Sat $350K/Sun $240k/3-day $970K (+3%), 5-day: $1.3M/Total $4.99M/Wk 3

Notable:

Licorice Pizza (UAR) 4 screens, Fri $142K/Sat $105K/Sun $89K/ 3-day $335K/Wk 1
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Not good for Encanto at all. Box Office Pro had predicted a $39 million 3-day and $56 million 5-day. But we know the circumstances, so what is and isn't good these days?

Tomorrow will be a VERY interesting day with Spidey Monday!
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
There really is not much to discuss these week as no major releases opened, and the already released movies did not do anything outstanding. Encanto fell 53%, which is not that bad, but it is not great either. However, the film crossed $100M worldwide. The film is about a 50/50 split with domestic and international numbers. House of Gucci did similar numbers as it also fell 53% and has a 50/50 split between its domestic and international numbers. As for older movies, Dune and Ghostbusters: Afterlife have both crossed $100M domestically. Like every outlet is saying, things will start to pick up this week with West Side Story, and then it will dominate in 2 weeks when Spider-Man: No Way Home opens.

Non-Top 10 Disney Numbers:
  • The French Dispatch: $401,000 (-36%)
    • Domestic Total: $15.1M
  • Ron’s Gone Wrong: $101,000 (-50%)
    • Domestic Total: $22.8M
  • Antlers: $50,000 (-14%)
    • Domestic Total: $10.5M
  • Free Guy is done with its theatrical run!
    • Domestic Total: $121.6M
    • Worldwide Total: $331.4M
This Friday, Disney opens West Side Story in theaters. Netflix and Amazon also release 2 of their titles in some theaters around the nation: Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos.

1.) Encanto (Dis) 3,980 theaters, Fri $3M (-73%)/Sat $5.79M/Sun $3.9M/ 3-day $12.7M (-53%), Total $57.9M/Wk 2

2.) Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) 4,059 (-256) theaters, Fri $2.7M (-72%)/Sat $4.75M/Sun $2.9M/3-day: $10.35M (-57%)/Total: $102.2M/Wk 3

3.) House of Gucci (UAR/MGM) 3,477 theaters, /Fri $2.18M (-62%)/Sat $2.866M/Sun $1.7M/3-day $6.77M (-53%)/Total: $33.6M/Wk 2

4.) Christmas With the Chosen (FTM) 1,642 theaters Fri $1.2M/Sat $1.5M/Sun $1.4M/3-day $4.1M/Total $9M/Wk 1

5.) Eternals (Dis) 3,165 (-890) theaters, Fri $1M (-65%)/Sat $1.8M/Sun $1M/3-day $3.9M (-51%)/Total $156.5M/Wk 5

6.)Resident Evil: Raccoon City (Sony) 2,803 theaters, Fri $765K /Sat $1.16M/Sun $730K/ 3-day $2.65M (-50%) Total $13.1M/Wk 2

7.)Dune (WB/Leg) 1,217 (-49) theaters, Fri $515K/Sat$785K/Sun$510K/ 3-day $1.81M(-13%)/ Total $104.6M/Wk 7

8.) Clifford the Big Red Dog (Par) 3,261 (-31) theaters, Fri $425K (-78%)/Sat $860K/Sun $515K/ 3-day $1.8M (-64%)/Total $45.7M/Wk 4

9.)King Richard (WB) 2,654 (-648) theaters, /Fri $365K (-73%)/Sat $525K/Sun $315K/ 3-day $1.2M (-63%)/Total $13.4M/Wk 3

10.) Sword Art Online Progressive (FUN) 840 theaters, Fri $471K, 3-day $1.05M/Wk 1

11.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 1,243 (-303) theaters, Fri $250K/Sat $500K/Sun $285K/3-day: $1.035M (-34%)/Total $210.9M/Wk 10



 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Dune is now sitting at $382 million worldwide and I still expect it to cross $400 million when all is said and done.

Eternals is at $384 million so far, compared with Shang-Chi's $432 million (approx) final gross. There's not going to be a significant difference in performance when it finishes its run.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
West Side Story is predicted to have a $22M-$31M global debut
  • $12M-$17M domestic
  • $10M-$14M international
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Surprised WSS would be so low, especially domestic. I would have pegged it at least making $30 million OW domestic. Just shows how much I know, eh? :(😆
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Looks like West Side Story is not off to a great start. The film had a disappointing $800k Thursday night total and an even worse Friday total of $4.1M. The opening weekend is now projected to be $10.2M. This is lower than In The Heights, the other movie musical this year, which made $11.5M. Don't fret. This film could pull a The Great Showman-type situation and have an enormously long run due to the awards season. The Greatest Showman ran for half a year in theaters! However, Deadline states that West Side Story may not be the next Greatest Showman due to the soundtrack not having any radio hits. Yes, the soundtrack does have a reimagined version of "America" by Kali Uchis, but it is not doing the levels of "This is Me" or the other songs on TGS soundtrack. Only time will tell if West Side Story will be a large success in the coming months.

In other news, Spider-Man: No Way Home is set to open at $150M, maybe even more...

 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Looks like West Side Story is not off to a great start. The film had a disappointing $800k Thursday night total and an even worse Friday total of $4.1M. The opening weekend is now projected to be $10.2M. This is lower than In The Heights, the other movie musical this year, which made $11.5M. Don't fret. This film could pull a The Great Showman-type situation and have an enormously long run due to the awards season. The Greatest Showman ran for half a year in theaters! However, Deadline states that West Side Story may not be the next Greatest Showman due to the soundtrack not having any radio hits. Yes, the soundtrack does have a reimagined version of "America" by Kali Uchis, but it is not doing the levels of "This is Me" or the other songs on TGS soundtrack. Only time will tell if West Side Story will be a large success in the coming months.

In other news, Spider-Man: No Way Home is set to open at $150M, maybe even more...


The Greatest Showman was also an original movie musical. It was something new that people hadn't seen before.

West Side Story is a remake of a movie released 60 years ago that's broadly considered one of the all time greats, musical or not.

Also, older audiences who are more familiar with the source material may not be as keen to see a movie in a theater right now. We've seen how movies that skew towards older demographics doing consistently worse than expected this year (minus the one with Lady Gaga).
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Even though West Side Story is opening at #1, its $10.5M total is nothing to brag about. To make it even worse, the global start is $14.9M. That is $10M less than what Disney predicted. The Hollywood Reporter states that the Omicron variant is the problem as it hurting the international markets. Like discussed yesterday, West Side Story could be a sleeper hit just like The Greatest Showman. Yet, with two major blockbusters coming out back to back, word of mouth is the only thing that could save this film. There will be 7 wide releases up to Christmas so that will sure also hurt West Side Story and its screen count.

With the older demographic not heading out, No Way Home and The Matrix 4 coming out 5 days apart, and a large family movie all coming out in the span of one week, it will be hard for West Side Story to fight with this competition. Plus with 4 other older-focused movies releasing soon, it is not going to help its chances.

It looks like Netflix and Amazon both struggled as well as both Don't Look Up and Being the Ricardos have some soft numbers. Don't Look Up opened with $700K and Being the Ricardos opened with $450K. These numbers are surprisingly low as Army of the Dead (another Netflix film) opened with $750k back in May. No offense to Dave Bautista, but he is no JLaw or Leonardo Dicap.

As for this Friday, the movie everyone has been waiting for...Nightmare Alley! Oh, and Spider-Man: No Way Home as well.

Non-Top 10 Disney Numbers:
  • The French Dispatch - $234,000 (-37%)
    • Domestic Total: $15.5M
  • Ron’s Gone Wrong - $40,000 (-62%)
    • Domestic Total: $22.9M
    • Hits Disney+ and HBOMax this Wednesday
  • Antlers - $19,000 (-56%)
    • Domestic Total: $10.6M

1.) West Side Story (20th/Dis) 2,820 theaters, Fri $4.1M/Saturday $3.8M/ Sunday $2.6M/3-day $10.5M/Wk 1

2.) Encanto (Dis) 3,750 (-230) theaters, Fri $2.2M (-28%)/ Saturday $4.4M/Sunday $2.82M/3-day $9.42M (-28%), Total $71.3M/Wk 3

3.) Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) 3,815 (-244) theaters, Fri $1.7M (-37%)/Sat $3.38M/Sun $2M/3-day $7.1M (-38%) Total: $112M/Wk 4

4.) House of Gucci (UAR/MGM) 3,407 (-70) theaters, /Fri $1.27M (-42%)/Sat $1.69M/Sun $1.099M/3-day $4.06M (-42%)/Total: $41M/Wk 3

5.) Eternals (Dis) 3,030 (-200) theaters, Fri $800K (-27%)/Saturday $1.4M/Sun $900K/ 3-day $3.1M (-26%)/Total $161.2M/Wk 6

6.)Resident Evil: Raccoon City (Sony) 2,572 (-231) theaters, Fri $455K (-40%)/ Sat $735K/Sun $460K/ 3-day $1.65M (-39%) Total $15.85M/Wk 3

7.) Clifford the Big Red Dog (Par) 2,840 (-421) theaters, Fri $265K (-38%)/Sat $630K/Sun $430K/3-day $1.325M (-30%)/Total $47.7M/Wk 5

8.) Christmas With the Chosen… (Fath) 1,600 (-100) theaters, Fri $465K /Sat $425K/Sun $392K/3-day $1.28M (-62%)/Total $13.8M /Wk 2

9.)Dune (WB/Leg) 948 (-269) theaters, Fri $220K/Sat $375K/Sun $262K/3-day $857K (-54%)/ Total $106.2M/Wk 8

10.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 1,003 (-231) theaters, Fri $215K/Sat $375K/Sun $260K/ 3-day: $850K (-15%)/Total $212.05M/Wk 11



 

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