2021 Box Office Tracking

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Well would you look at that! Spider-Man: No Way Home had a $253M opening weekend. This makes it the third-highest domestic opening, and the best opening of 2021. The global debut is also the third-highest debut with $587.2M. This is a huge win for the movie industry and shows that studios can still make some money. Although, it seems to be only Marvel films. With a $200M budget and another $200M for advertising, the film still has some ways to go before actually turning a solid profit. Will any other movie be able to open this big? Well, maybe not soon and to this level, but Doctor Strange 2 seems to be a likely contender to open high if the rumors about the movie are true. Heck, maybe even fellow multiverse film The Flash can pull in some high numbers due to the return of Michael Keaton and Ben Affleck.

Not everyone was a winner, though. Nightmare Alley, fellow Disney-owned movie, was only able to rack up $2.9M this weekend. The Disney distribution team has fumbled again for the second weekend in a row. Hopefully this and West Side Story, which fell 68%, can find an audience after Christmas.

As for the rest of the week, there will FIVE wide releases and TWO expansions. This Wednesday, The Matrix: Resurrections, Sing 2, and The King's Man all open in wide release while The Tender Bar goes wide. Then on Friday, Licorice Pizza will go wide. Lastly, on Christmas Day, A Journal for Jordan and American Underdog open in wide release.

Non-Top 10 Disney Numbers
  • The French Dispatch - $129,000 (-48%)
    • Domestic Total: $15.8M
  • Ron’s Gone Wrong - $21,000 (-51%)
    • Domestic Total: $23M

1.) Spider-Man: No Way Home (Sony) 4,336 theaters, Fri $121.85M/Sat $73.8M/Sun $57.3M/3-day $253M/Wk 1

2.) Encanto (Dis) 3,525 (-225) theaters, Fri $1.65M (-28%)/Sat $2.65M/Sun $2.2M/3-day $6.5M (-34%), Total $81.5M/Wk 4

3.) West Side Story (20th/Dis) 2,820 theaters, Fri $1.06M (-74%)/Sat $1.4M/Sun $956K/3-day $3.416M (-68%)/Total $17.98M/Wk 2

4.) Ghostbusters: Afterlife (Sony) 3,282 (-533) theaters, Fri $945K /Sat $1.4M/Sun $1M/3-day $3.4M (-52%) Total: $117.2M/Wk 5

5.) Nightmare Alley (Sea) 2,145 theaters, Fri $1.19M/Sat $938K/Sun $828K/3-day: $2.958M, Wk 1

6.)House of Gucci (UAR/MGM) 1,907 (-1,500) theaters, /Fri $579K (-54%)/Sat $773K/Sun $502K/3-day $1.85M (-55%)/Total: $44.88M/Wk 4

7.) Eternals (Dis) 1,900 (-1,130) theaters, Fri $337K (-58%)/Sat $473K/Sun $382K/ 3-day $1.19M (-62%)/Total $163.6M/Wk 7

8.) Pushpa: The Rise (Hamsini) 400 theaters, Fri $437,6K/Sat $399K/Sun $292K/3-day $1.13M/Wk 1

9.) Clifford the Big Red Dog (Par) 2,840 (-421) theaters, Fri $105K (-61%)/Sat $165K/Sun $130K/ 3-day $400K (-69%)/Total $48.5M/Wk 6

10.) Resident Evil: Raccoon City (Sony) 719 (-1,853) theaters, Fri $85K (-81%)/Sat $115K/Sun $80K/3-day $280K (-83%) Total $16.7M/Wk 4

11.) Dune (WB) 315 (-633) theaters, Fri $66k/Sat $97K/Sun $72K/3-day: $235K (-73%), Total $106.8M/Wk 9

12.) Venom: Let There Be Carnage (Sony) 450 (-553) theaters, Fri $65K (-66%)/Sat $90K/Sun $65K/3-day: $220K (-71%)/Total $212.4M/Wk 12



 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Thanks Nate!

The actuals will end up higher for NWH. Here are the following drops for the biggest Decembers from 1st Saturday to 1st Sunday:
Force Awakens: 13%
Last Jedi: 19.8%
Rogue One: 18.6%
Rise of Skywalker: 15.7%
Aquaman: 12%
Return of the King: 15%

None were under 20%. The closest was Last Jedi which had VERY bad audience word of mouth. None, including Force Awakens (that I know of) had an A+ cinemascore. I am thinking the Sunday drop will be closer to 15%.

The original estimate for Force awakens had about a 30% drop until it was adjusted to 13% a day later. So closer to $258 million will probably be where NWH settles (right around Infinity War give or take a million or so).
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Breaking News! Spider-Man: No Way Home has officially beat Avengers: Infinity War and becomes the second highest domestic opening weekend. The official opening weekend total is $260M.

Darnit Nate! You ALWAYS beat me to it LOLOLOL.

But yeah-This is Spidey's world (multiple worlds). We're just living in it (them).

Domestic will end up anywhere between $730-$770 million I am guessing.
Worldwide it will probably be between $1.5-$1.7 billion. Not sure how or if China will factor in.

The only think preventing the above numbers will be total shutdowns due to omicron.
 
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tcool123

Well-Known Member
Merely what I saw today but at the cinema to see Kings Man and saw that EVERY showing for Spiderman was sold out. That’s 24 showtimes spread throughout IMAX, Dolby and regular theaters. Both English and Spanish audios, and english and Spanish subtitles included in being all sold out.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Projections for the rest of the week!

Spider-Man: No Way Home (4-day weekend total) - $143M
The Matrix Resurrections (6-day total) - $40M-$60M
Sing 2 (6-day total) - $40M-$50M
The King’s Man (6-day total) - $19M-$20M
A Journal for Jordan and American Underdog (both open Christmas Day) will be in the single-digit-millions range

 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Projections for the rest of the week!

Spider-Man: No Way Home (4-day weekend total) - $143M
The Matrix Resurrections (6-day total) - $40M-$60M
Sing 2 (6-day total) - $40M-$50M
The King’s Man (6-day total) - $19M-$20M
A Journal for Jordan and American Underdog (both open Christmas Day) will be in the single-digit-millions range

Feels like we went from 0 to 60 pretty quick there. I am thinking there will be some disappointments this weekend. To go from 1 major wide releases each weekend to having 3 along with the second weekend of one of the biggest movies openings of all time. I just don't think there is enough of a market (yet). All these movies could be great and worthy of those projections, but I just imagine we will see at least 1, more likely 2, or even 3 not hitting those marks (and people automatically calling them bombs as a result).

I will be interested to see what happens. Would be great for the business to see them all hit those targets, but I am just not seeing it.

Do we have a sense of what the premium screens are doing? How much is Spider-man losing of those? Who is getting the most? (by the way, does anybody know the official percentage from last weekend of how many of the screens Spider-man had total, I imagine it was close to record breaking. The theaters in my area were almost all exclusively showing Spider-man with very few other offerings)

A part of me thinks Spider-man will show some muscle this weekend. On paper the drop won't look as impressive as it actually is. They will be losing a higher percentage of premium screens and showtimes (I would imagine) than most mega blockbusters do in second weekends only because of how many screens they had last weekend. I would imagine they will have a rather impressive per theater average this weekend for a second weekend (do they track second weekend per theater average drops?)
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Projections for the rest of the week!

Spider-Man: No Way Home (4-day weekend total) - $143M
The Matrix Resurrections (6-day total) - $40M-$60M
Sing 2 (6-day total) - $40M-$50M
The King’s Man (6-day total) - $19M-$20M
A Journal for Jordan and American Underdog (both open Christmas Day) will be in the single-digit-millions range

BoxOfficePro had similar numbers, but I thought a good writeup as well - https://www.boxofficepro.com/weeken...matrix-resurrections-for-top-christmas-debut/

Spider-Man: No Way Home
2nd Weekend Range: $90 – 120 million

The King’s Man

Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $8 – 13 million
Opening 5-Day Weekend Range: $13 – 21 million

The Matrix Resurrections

Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $22 – 32 million
Opening 5-Day Weekend Range: $37 – 55 million

Sing 2

Opening 3-Day Weekend Range: $30 – 45 million
Opening 5-Day Weekend Range: $45 – 69 million

American Underdog

Opening 2-Day Weekend Range: $5 – 10 million

A Journal for Jordan

Opening 2-Day Weekend Range: $1 – 3 million
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
I'd narrow Spidey's weekend range to $90-$110 million. But we'll see. Not far off from BOP.

Monday it brought in $37 million which is outstanding (2nd biggest non-holiday Monday). It pulled in $32 million yesterday according to results (actuals not in yet). Not quite the hold Force Awakens had on its first Tuesday and still a tiny bit bigger drop than even End Game. But so many factors. Omicron WILL make an impact one way or another. And many theaters in Canada are either locked up or having strict restrictions (can't keep up with the changing rules). So inevitably there will be an impact of a couple of million.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Wednesday estimates:
  • Spider-Man: No Way Home - $27.8M
  • Sing 2 - $8M
    • Deadline: $42M-$50M 5-day total
    • Forbes: $40M-$52M 5-day total
    • Variety: $40M+ 5-day total
    • Box Office Pro: $40M-$55M 5-day total
  • Matrix Resurrections - $6.4M
    • Deadline: Did not give updated projected
    • Forbes: $32M 5-day total
    • Variety: $40M-$50M 5-day total
    • Box Office Pro: $24M-$35M 5-day total
  • The King’s Man - $2.3M
    • Deadline: $10M 5-day total
    • Forbes: $10M 5-day total
    • Variety: $10M-$12M 5-day total
    • Box Office Pro: $8.5M-$17M 5-day total
The Hollywood Reporter states that "It’s too early to predict where these four films will land by Sunday."

Deadline states that we should "give all these new movies some time to breath as business typically picks up on Christmas and beyond."





 
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MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
I'm going to save you all some trouble. Don't watch Matrix Resurrection - don't do it.
At least the audience and critics are in sync!

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NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I am out of town for the holidays so here are the links for the usual chart and numbers! It was not the most exciting numbers besides No Way Home, but they are not totally dreadful.


 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Spider-Man: No Way Home has become Sony's highest grossing film to date and has unseated The Rise of Skywalker's domestic total. No Way Home is currently at #21 on the all-time worldwide list and #14 on the all-time domestic list. If the $1.5B projections come to fruition, then No Way Home will earn a spot in the all-time worldwide top ten.

 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Spider-Man: No Way Home has become Sony's highest grossing film to date and has unseated The Rise of Skywalker's domestic total. No Way Home is currently at #21 on the all-time worldwide list and #14 on the all-time domestic list. If the $1.5B projections come to fruition, then No Way Home will earn a spot in the all-time worldwide top ten.

Guess this was that one "killer app" that everyone was waiting for before returning to theaters. Makes you wonder if new movies after the new year will start bringing in normal numbers or if this was a one-off and the rest will continue to be soft.
 

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