Looking forward to 2019, even with the potential juggernauts they have in the wings, Disney might still have an uphill climb to top their 2018 numbers with just their own in-company releases. With Fox they can but with uncertainty of how/when/IF the combined box office with be calculated we'll have to exclude them for the time being.
As of now they have 10 releases scheduled, while that's the same number they had in 2018, they're starting the year with less potential in hold overs banking on Mary Poppins Returns when in year's past they've had a Star Wars movie to boost their front end. There are no releases until March.
- Captain Marvel (3/8) - while she's a beloved character it's unlikely she'll have the sway Black Panther did. Even with a good fan embrace it will rank in around Guardians numbers.
- Dumbo (3/29) - of the THREE "live action" re-tellings this year this is the one that feels most poised to fail to me. Burton is not the draw he used to be and while Dumbo is popular among the classics lovers it doesn't hold that high a place in pop culture that other classics do.
- Penguins (4/17) - it's the latest of the Disney Nature documentary, they barely make 10-15m
- Avengers: Endgame (4/26) - being moved up into April like Infinity War is likely a great play. There's really no telling how big this will go until it's over.
- Aladdin (5/24) - the second of the re-tellings, will probably be more well received that Dunbo. But if there is any off feelings from Dumbo this movie could suffer slightly from it.
- Toy Story 4 (6/21) - our Pixar movie of the year. Hard to tell how it will go, many were expecting the series to be over with 3, but just as many are excited to see it continue.
- The Lion King (7/19) - they're betting a lot on this movie. It appears to be in good hands and it's one of the most beloved of the modern classics so I expect of the three in this category this year this one will do the best .
- Artemis Fowl (8/9) - guess this is still a thing? It's been in some kind of development since the first book came out in 2001. Honestly this is likely to go the way of Nutcracker.
- Frozen 2 (11/22) - no one knows which side to come down on this one with. 400m domestic is a tall order to repeat on for even the best franchises. Did people's love thaw? With so little to go in it's to soon to tell
- Star Wars: Episode IX (12/20) - rounding out the year with Star Wars has been a great boot. How much of it's take will come in 2019 is the question.
Are we looking at another 3 Billion dollar domestic year? Maybe? It's not a sure thing.
Between Endgame and Episode IX that's likely worth a Billion on it's own at least. The Dumbo/Aladdin/Lion King trifecta could do the same even with only one break out hit. The remaining slate of Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4, Artemis Fowl, and Frozen 2 (with Penguins for padding) seems reasonably likely as well for combined Billion.
I think it's more likely than not Disney will hit the 3 Billion mark, and if so overtake their 2018 record just on their own movies. IF the Fox box office starts counting for Disney ... it could be a 4 BILLION year. At that point there's no catching up for other studios for at least a year or two.
I long have been a proponent that 2019 is
the year for Disney box office records. Totally ignoring the slate that is now Fox/Disney. This was Iger's retirement year, everything from the studio presence (arguably a sequel for every studios biggest franchise in one year) to the bicoastal Galaxies Edge Projects. Then of course Fox happened and the rest is history.
What 2018 did though was absolutely shock us out of the gate. Black Panther re-wrote Q1 box office performance and likely is something we won't see from a major studio again anytime soon. That near 900million holdover/Black Panther/Wrinkle combo was shocking. Even if all the leg work was Black Panther.
2018 continued to roll on successfully into Q2 with stellar performances by Avengers and Incredibles 2. Solo being the first underperformance that perhaps gave 2019 a comeback chance.
Q3/4 honestly were not great. 78% of Disney's record setting 2018 was driven by movies released BEFORE Q3. This is the window that 2019 will overtake.
Q1 is always strongly going to be in 2018's favour. The ultimate question is how much of a Captain Marvel v.s. Black Panther deficit will 2019 be battling back for. Long range tracking is now calling the opening weekend for Captain Marvel 140-180million. I do NOT think it is a 700 million dollar movie, that's a total aberration. But we are seemingly looking at something that is going to do very well.
(Dumbo/Wrinkle being a wash, I don't see Dumbo so spectacularly performing i.e. >300 million or so spectacularly failing i.e. <<100million that it sways the year).
Q2 is the start of 2019's ability to keep pace. Avengers is going to hit similar numbers and be a wash. Extreme variability would call +/- 200million. Aladdin (while my personal favourite renaissance film has an uphill battle). But it only really has to live up to Solo. I can't see one of the big renaissance film remakes doing less than 200 million. But we couldn't have seen Star Wars barely cracking 200. I think the negativity surrounding the latter was far worse at this point in time. Incredibles 2 performed wildly well. Toy Story 4 still seems like a solid 400million domestic performer. Especially with the run Pixar has been on with their sequels in this summertime slot.
Q3 is the catch-up deficit period. The Lion King is making 300 million dollars more than Ant Man even if it's terrible, terrible garbage. Lion King is probably going to walk away with the summer box office. This is
the renaissance movie. If Jon Favreau turned Jungle Book into a 300 million performer... Woof.
Q4 is how 2019 pulls ahead. I liked Ralph, I liked Poppins a lot. But Disney really left 2018 with a whimper. Regardless of the drama, the blow back, the fatigue... Frozen 2 and Episode 9 are still going to be front loaded and bring big box office dollars to cap off the year.
I think how high the year goes all hinges on how some of the more dubious movies perform. Can Captain Marvel claw closer to Black Panther? Will Aladdin escape doldrums and start to pull closer to Beauty and the Beast? Then will Frozen/Episode 9 overcome or submit to fatigue. Are people obligatorily going to Toy Story 4 or will they embrace it? Dumbo and Artemis don't matter and nor do I expect them to. Lion King is not dubious, it's more a question of will it be the biggest movie of the summer or the biggest movie of the year.
And welcome to the forum!