From what I have seen it is coming in the range of most forecast, just on the lower end of that range. So it's not doing awful.
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
2019 Box Office tracking
- Thread starter WhatJaneSays
- Start date
It's been a busy week already!
- Avengers: Endgame broke all the things (including websites)
- Captain Marvel crossed the Billion WW mark
- Disney crossed 500 Million domestic, they're at 630m with Fox
- They had a good showing at CinemaCon, confirming most of the Fox stuff
- No footage or news on Star Wars: Episode IX (which is not surprising with Star Wars Celebration right around the corner)
- Dumbo is doing about middle of the road on the lower side
Also, Dumbo won't finish opening up in international markets until April 19.
Dumbo's real problem is how expensive it was to make: $170M. You need to make a little over half a billion just to break even (using ballpark calculations).
Dumbo's real problem is how expensive it was to make: $170M. You need to make a little over half a billion just to break even (using ballpark calculations).
I wouldn't count on that. Remakes and franchises have been almost the only types of movies that have been making money (during their theatrical release), or, at least breaking even.
Original screenplays and new book adaptations have thrown huge deficits. See...
There is also huge value in the synergy. It's not just the box office take, it is getting other generations into the franchise or movie. It's little things and big things. More dumbo stuffed animals will be sold. Heck, people will go out and buy the original Dumbo now. It keeps, in this case, Dumbo relevant.I wouldn't count on that. Remakes and franchises have been almost the only types of movies that have been making money (during their theatrical release), or, at least breaking even.
Original screenplays and new book adaptations have thrown huge deficits. See...
I agree that Disney's in a unique position to benefit from the post-theatrical window with cable, TV, streaming, DVD, merch, and theme park synergy. This can make a marginal movie into a financial success. We've already seen how by keeping an IP alive in the parks can change a movie that lost a lot of money in the theatrical window a financial success when they re-released the movie to theaters over and over again. And the same is true with modern media distribution.
This can make a marginal Dumbo remake or a Mary Poppins sequel profitable. However, it won't help for The Finest Hours or Million Dollar Arm. That's why the franchisable family-friendly movies get made and they lean on the already-known and loved properties.
Not a lot movement in the ranks lately. So far this year has put some gaps between the studios. Disney just on it's own has a reasonable lead of 31m on #2 Universal but even with Fox's smaller numbers that lead jumps to 160m.
So far Universal's had good showings with Us and Glass earlier, with perhaps a smaller than expected take on How to Train Your Dragon 3. Their earnings will likely slow after Us not picking up again mid/late May.
Even beyond the top pair #3 Warner Bros is lagging nearly 95m behind. That's likely to change with Shazam pulling a 53m+ opening weekend. They should be able to catch up a bit after the slower than expected Lego Movie 2. Personally I was expecting a bigger OW for Shazam after the buzz of the early showings but I guess DC is still has a few more wary people to win over.
From here down there is a big gap; #4 Sony has done less than half of #3. Not that surprising as their early year releases have been smaller films with shorter release windows. Last year's Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse got a well deserved boost after is Oscar win, bringing in an extra 82m and was still playing in around 200 theaters as of April 4th.
Paramount and Lionsgate, #5 and #6, have both edged out #7 Fox's separate box office by 50m-30m
So far Universal's had good showings with Us and Glass earlier, with perhaps a smaller than expected take on How to Train Your Dragon 3. Their earnings will likely slow after Us not picking up again mid/late May.
Even beyond the top pair #3 Warner Bros is lagging nearly 95m behind. That's likely to change with Shazam pulling a 53m+ opening weekend. They should be able to catch up a bit after the slower than expected Lego Movie 2. Personally I was expecting a bigger OW for Shazam after the buzz of the early showings but I guess DC is still has a few more wary people to win over.
From here down there is a big gap; #4 Sony has done less than half of #3. Not that surprising as their early year releases have been smaller films with shorter release windows. Last year's Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse got a well deserved boost after is Oscar win, bringing in an extra 82m and was still playing in around 200 theaters as of April 4th.
Paramount and Lionsgate, #5 and #6, have both edged out #7 Fox's separate box office by 50m-30m
Just a little disclaimer: I'm not going to have much chance to update for the next week or so as I'm getting ready to head off to Star Wars Celebration in Chicago!
(If anyone happens to be attending - feel free to say hello, grab some swag, and talk box office or Star Wars stuffs!)
(If anyone happens to be attending - feel free to say hello, grab some swag, and talk box office or Star Wars stuffs!)
I'm back from Star Wars Celebration! (And am I reminded why I chose to stay in Florida instead of moving back north.) All around it was a pretty amazing time. Getting to be in a stadium with 7000 of your fellow fans to see the the first glimpses of one of the most anticipated movies of not just the year but maybe of all time is a surreal experience. It showed me again why I enjoy movies, and fandoms, and the excitement of that communal experience.
Needless to say Episode IX is going to be big at the box office, even without them playing up how this is going to complete a story. As many records at Avengers: Endgame is poised to break they may be short lived. There is a LONG 8 months between now and this movie but they could have put tickets on sale now and it would have sold out opening night and into the weekend by now.
____
Now on the box office things that have happened in the last week. This past weekend was very soft compared with the past few years. Even with 4 new wide releases Shazam!'s 2nd weekend out preformed them all by 9m. Next weekend looks to be about the same with only 1 new wide release, and the 2 having started on the 17th are more niche (Nature documentary and Faith based). This could be a sign of just a quirk or people having already focused on Endgame.
While I'm seeing a few places calling for a 300m+ opening weekend for Endgame ... I just don't think that's in the cards. That's 42m over what Infinity War did. To make that up they would have to sell 4.5m more tickets and I have a hard time believing that there could be that many seats available for a movie that's nearly 30 min longer. It is mathematically doable but requires a good number of people to be willing to go to movies starting between 2 and 7 AM.
Needless to say Episode IX is going to be big at the box office, even without them playing up how this is going to complete a story. As many records at Avengers: Endgame is poised to break they may be short lived. There is a LONG 8 months between now and this movie but they could have put tickets on sale now and it would have sold out opening night and into the weekend by now.
____
Now on the box office things that have happened in the last week. This past weekend was very soft compared with the past few years. Even with 4 new wide releases Shazam!'s 2nd weekend out preformed them all by 9m. Next weekend looks to be about the same with only 1 new wide release, and the 2 having started on the 17th are more niche (Nature documentary and Faith based). This could be a sign of just a quirk or people having already focused on Endgame.
While I'm seeing a few places calling for a 300m+ opening weekend for Endgame ... I just don't think that's in the cards. That's 42m over what Infinity War did. To make that up they would have to sell 4.5m more tickets and I have a hard time believing that there could be that many seats available for a movie that's nearly 30 min longer. It is mathematically doable but requires a good number of people to be willing to go to movies starting between 2 and 7 AM.
We're in the Endgame now.
The weekend estimates are in and the Avengers: Endgame predictions are rolling out. Captain Marvel had a significant bump, gaining 5.7% over the previous weekend bringing her total to 400m domestic. That trend is likely to keep during the week and into the next weekend as people are trying to catch it before seeing Endgame.
As for Endgame itself; Box Office Pro is calling for a 270m-300m or MORE opening weekend and Exhibitor Relations is calling it's shot at 282m opening weekend. Honestly I think even 282m could be a slight over shoot, but my calculation of 275m-280m could be short if more theaters do decide to run 24 hour showings.
The weekend estimates are in and the Avengers: Endgame predictions are rolling out. Captain Marvel had a significant bump, gaining 5.7% over the previous weekend bringing her total to 400m domestic. That trend is likely to keep during the week and into the next weekend as people are trying to catch it before seeing Endgame.
As for Endgame itself; Box Office Pro is calling for a 270m-300m or MORE opening weekend and Exhibitor Relations is calling it's shot at 282m opening weekend. Honestly I think even 282m could be a slight over shoot, but my calculation of 275m-280m could be short if more theaters do decide to run 24 hour showings.
After this coming weekend Disney should be over 900 million, so 1 billion is possible through April 30. In any case they 2019 will be the second fastest to 1 billion in North America. And look at all the other movies still to come,
Bact to Endgame. Will it be the become the highest grossing movie of all time in North America and become the first 1 billion dollar grossing movie in North America? Will it pass Titanic and become the second highest grossing movie of all time? Does it have a chance at passing Avatar? There is no doubt it will become the highest grossing opening weekend movie of all time. It is likely to be at 900 million worldwide through Sunday and 1 billion is possible. Shocking! This movie has a chance to set all sorts of records. They key to determining how high the gross goes is North America and China. Personally I believe Endgame will pass Titanic and come close to Avatar but still wind up a little short.
Bact to Endgame. Will it be the become the highest grossing movie of all time in North America and become the first 1 billion dollar grossing movie in North America? Will it pass Titanic and become the second highest grossing movie of all time? Does it have a chance at passing Avatar? There is no doubt it will become the highest grossing opening weekend movie of all time. It is likely to be at 900 million worldwide through Sunday and 1 billion is possible. Shocking! This movie has a chance to set all sorts of records. They key to determining how high the gross goes is North America and China. Personally I believe Endgame will pass Titanic and come close to Avatar but still wind up a little short.
Endgame is going to have the first crack of the next few years to get that Billion domestic number. But ... boy that is a such an statistical anomaly I have to think the odds are fairly slim, like less than 1% slim. I could give it the 300m opening weekend odds but even with that kind of OW, low weekly drops, and over-performance on it's weekdays every single week ... the max run they could expect tops out at 975m. That does get them to #1 domestic but still 25m short. That's 30% (295m+) over what Infinity War did.
It should (provided it's good and no real world snap) be able to pull the same numbers Black Panther did, 700m, on an middle average run. I'd also say erroring higher to 720m-740m is reasonable. If they manage the 300m opening, 750m-780m.
I'm calling it to fall short of Avatar's total 760.5m, but over Avatar's original domestic run of 749.7m.
winstongator
Well-Known Member
Inflation adjusted avatar is about $3.25B, over 50% more than infinity war.
Today is the day. The last update before Avengers: Endgame throws all calculations to the wind and we can only look back at the year we've had so far.
The big players of the year to date have been varied.
Horror and Thrillers have proven themselves to be money makers on small budget. The recent Curse of La Llorona has already brought in x3.75 is budget domestically, the remake of Pet Sematary is near 100m world wide, and Jordan Peele knocked it out again with Us that's over 171m domestic and 247m world wide.
Kid fare has been a bit lighter this year. The 3rd How to Train Your Dragon leads the pack, but may have under-performed; the 2nd LEGO movie definitely did under-perform; and even a remake like Dumbo didn't seem to break out.
Superheroes came into 2019 strong; both Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse and Aquaman made a reasonable about of money. And they stayed strong with Captain Marvel, that's crossed over the 400m domestic number and 1b world wide. Even Shazam! has done well for a DC movie-verse that's trending better.
________
In our next update the mad titan of the box office will have arrived. Will anything this year be able stand against it? (Probably not in this one or 14,000,605 other timelines.)
The big players of the year to date have been varied.
Horror and Thrillers have proven themselves to be money makers on small budget. The recent Curse of La Llorona has already brought in x3.75 is budget domestically, the remake of Pet Sematary is near 100m world wide, and Jordan Peele knocked it out again with Us that's over 171m domestic and 247m world wide.
Kid fare has been a bit lighter this year. The 3rd How to Train Your Dragon leads the pack, but may have under-performed; the 2nd LEGO movie definitely did under-perform; and even a remake like Dumbo didn't seem to break out.
Superheroes came into 2019 strong; both Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse and Aquaman made a reasonable about of money. And they stayed strong with Captain Marvel, that's crossed over the 400m domestic number and 1b world wide. Even Shazam! has done well for a DC movie-verse that's trending better.
________
In our next update the mad titan of the box office will have arrived. Will anything this year be able stand against it? (Probably not in this one or 14,000,605 other timelines.)
$350 million for Endgame domestically this weekend, $1.2 billion worldwide. With nothing really challenging it for a month, I'd say Avatar is keeping the seat warm at this point.
The stars Infinity Stones aligned and Endgame is estimating a 350m opening weekend. So many crazy factors went into making that happen, from earlier previews, to 24 hour showings, to the largest theater count in history (by 130+), to highest per-theater average for a wide release (by $15,000), to more than 5,000 added shows just at AMCs for opening weekend.
The early reported actual opening weekend is clocking in at 356m, and I think that might even be under by a few million as there are still receipts coming in from late night Sunday shows and many of them were still sold out or nearly so. It it turns into a 360m opening I wouldn't be surprised.
It's broken to many records world wide there's already a Wikipedia page for it. With 1.2+ billion world wide it's already #18 of all time with less than a week in. It's sitting on a 96% critic score at Rotten Tomatos, and an A+ CinemaScore.
Endgame has it's eyes on those world wide Avatar and domestic The Force Awakens records. Time will tell, but signs point to a firm ... could be!
The early reported actual opening weekend is clocking in at 356m, and I think that might even be under by a few million as there are still receipts coming in from late night Sunday shows and many of them were still sold out or nearly so. It it turns into a 360m opening I wouldn't be surprised.
It's broken to many records world wide there's already a Wikipedia page for it. With 1.2+ billion world wide it's already #18 of all time with less than a week in. It's sitting on a 96% critic score at Rotten Tomatos, and an A+ CinemaScore.
Endgame has it's eyes on those world wide Avatar and domestic The Force Awakens records. Time will tell, but signs point to a firm ... could be!
And remember, the A+ CinemaScore typically indicates a movie will do close to five times its opening weekend.
!!!
Also, $1.1B was what Endgame needed to break even because of its record budget. So, from here on out, Disney gets roughly half of any new tickets sold as pure profit.
!!!
Also, $1.1B was what Endgame needed to break even because of its record budget. So, from here on out, Disney gets roughly half of any new tickets sold as pure profit.
Boxoffice Mojo's final Domestic number for Endgame was 357,115,007 and Worldwide 1,223,641,414. All 4 Disney movies were underestimated. Endgame by 7,115,007. Captain Marvel by 261,751. Dumbo by 254,282 and Penguins by 91,500. The underestimated total of 7,722,540. Therefore, Disney's total for the weekend was 370,063,540. YTD Disney is at 973.2 million. only 27 million to go to reach a billion today.
Last edited: