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2019 Box Office tracking

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Welcome to the Box Office tracking thread for 2019!

Here you'll find the domestic box office information for all the Disney released moves. This year I'm also keeping an eye on the Fox releases as well. This first post contains the general Top lists and the upcoming movie schedule. The post below contains a more detailed breakdown of the Disney and Fox releases plus their combined domestic box office.

Please feel free to chime in with your box office predictions!



Last Updated: July 15th
Numbers: July 14th estimates


Domestic Top 10 Studios:
  1. Disney - 2168.0m
  2. Warner Bros. - 893.0m
  3. Universal - 839.6m
  4. Sony - 610.0m
  5. Lionsgate - 390.4m
  6. Paramount - 316.8m
  7. Fox - 243.5m
  8. STX - 168.1m
  9. United Artists - 102.0m
  10. Focus - 61.3m
Domestic Top 10 Movies:
  1. Avengers: Endgame - 854.2m
  2. Captain Marvel - 426.8m closed
  3. Aladdin - 331.4m
  4. Toy Story 4 - 346.3m
  5. Us - 175.0m
  6. John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum - 167.5m
  7. How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World - 160.7m closed
  8. The Secret Life of Pets 2 - 147.1m
  9. Detective Pikachu - 143.2m
  10. Shazam - 140.2m
Upcoming Wide Releases:
  • July 19th: The Lion King
  • July 26th: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
  • Aug 2nd: Hobbs & Shaw
  • Aug 9th: The Art of Racing in the Rain, Dora and the Lost City of Gold, The Kitchen, Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
  • Aug 14th (Wed): The Angry Birds Movie 2, Blinded By the Light
  • Aug 16th: 47 Meters Down: Uncaged, Good Boys, The Informer, Where'd You Go, Bernadette
  • Aug 21st (Wed): Ready or Not
  • Aug 23rd: Angel has Fallen, My Spy, Overcomer
  • Aug 30th: PLAYMOBIL: The Movie
 
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WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Advertisement
Last Updated: July 15th
Numbers: July 14th estimates


Disney Breakdown

Domestic hold overs:
  • The Nutcracker and the Four Realms - 317.1k (54.8m total) closed
  • Ralph Breaks the Internet - 23.4m (201.0m total) closed
  • Mary Poppins Returns - 66.0m (171.9m total) closed
2019 Releases:
  • Captain Marvel - 426.8m closed
  • Dumbo - 114.6m
  • Penguins - 7.6m closed
  • Avengers: Endgame - 851.2m
  • Aladdin - 331.4m
  • Tony Story 4 - 346.3
Disney Total: 2168.0m


Release Schedule:
  • The Lion King, July 19th
  • Maleficent: Mistress of Evil, Oct 18th
  • Frozen 2, Nov 22nd
  • Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Dec 20th
Fox Breakdown

Domestic hold overs:
  • The Hate U Give - 49.4k (29.7m total) closed
  • Bohemian Rhapsody - 26.4m (216.2m total)
  • Widows - 498.4k (42.4m total) closed
  • Once Upon a Deadpool - 78.4k (6.1m total) closed
2019 Releases:
  • The Kid Who Would be King - 16.7m closed
  • Alita: Battle Angel - 85.7m closed
  • Breakthrough - 40.7m
  • Dark Phoenix - 65.0m
  • Stuber - 8.0m
Fox Total: 243.5m


Release Schedule:
  • The Art of Racing in the Rain, Aug 9th
  • Ad Astra, Sept 20th
  • The Woman in the Window, Oct 4th
  • Ford v. Ferrari, Nov 15th
  • Spies in Disguise, Dec 25th
Disney + Fox Total: 2411.6m
 
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WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Looking forward to 2019, even with the potential juggernauts they have in the wings, Disney might still have an uphill climb to top their 2018 numbers with just their own in-company releases. With Fox they can but with uncertainty of how/when/IF the combined box office with be calculated we'll have to exclude them for the time being.

As of now they have 10 releases scheduled, while that's the same number they had in 2018, they're starting the year with less potential in hold overs banking on Mary Poppins Returns when in year's past they've had a Star Wars movie to boost their front end. There are no releases until March.

  • Captain Marvel (3/8) - while she's a beloved character it's unlikely she'll have the sway Black Panther did. Even with a good fan embrace it will rank in around Guardians numbers.
  • Dumbo (3/29) - of the THREE "live action" re-tellings this year this is the one that feels most poised to fail to me. Burton is not the draw he used to be and while Dumbo is popular among the classics lovers it doesn't hold that high a place in pop culture that other classics do.
  • Penguins (4/17) - it's the latest of the Disney Nature documentary, they barely make 10-15m
  • Avengers: Endgame (4/26) - being moved up into April like Infinity War is likely a great play. There's really no telling how big this will go until it's over.
  • Aladdin (5/24) - the second of the re-tellings, will probably be more well received that Dunbo. But if there is any off feelings from Dumbo this movie could suffer slightly from it.
  • Toy Story 4 (6/21) - our Pixar movie of the year. Hard to tell how it will go, many were expecting the series to be over with 3, but just as many are excited to see it continue.
  • The Lion King (7/19) - they're betting a lot on this movie. It appears to be in good hands and it's one of the most beloved of the modern classics so I expect of the three in this category this year this one will do the best .
  • Artemis Fowl (8/9) - guess this is still a thing? It's been in some kind of development since the first book came out in 2001. Honestly this is likely to go the way of Nutcracker.
  • Frozen 2 (11/22) - no one knows which side to come down on this one with. 400m domestic is a tall order to repeat on for even the best franchises. Did people's love thaw? With so little to go in it's to soon to tell
  • Star Wars: Episode IX (12/20) - rounding out the year with Star Wars has been a great boot. How much of it's take will come in 2019 is the question.
Are we looking at another 3 Billion dollar domestic year? Maybe? It's not a sure thing.

Between Endgame and Episode IX that's likely worth a Billion on it's own at least. The Dumbo/Aladdin/Lion King trifecta could do the same even with only one break out hit. The remaining slate of Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4, Artemis Fowl, and Frozen 2 (with Penguins for padding) seems reasonably likely as well for combined Billion.

I think it's more likely than not Disney will hit the 3 Billion mark, and if so overtake their 2018 record just on their own movies. IF the Fox box office starts counting for Disney ... it could be a 4 BILLION year. At that point there's no catching up for other studios for at least a year or two.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Looking forward to 2019, even with the potential juggernauts they have in the wings, Disney might still have an uphill climb to top their 2018 numbers with just their own in-company releases. With Fox they can but with uncertainty of how/when/IF the combined box office with be calculated we'll have to exclude them for the time being.

As of now they have 10 releases scheduled, while that's the same number they had in 2018, they're starting the year with less potential in hold overs banking on Mary Poppins Returns when in year's past they've had a Star Wars movie to boost their front end. There are no releases until March.

  • Captain Marvel (3/8) - while she's a beloved character it's unlikely she'll have the sway Black Panther did. Even with a good fan embrace it will rank in around Guardians numbers.
  • Dumbo (3/29) - of the THREE "live action" re-tellings this year this is the one that feels most poised to fail to me. Burton is not the draw he used to be and while Dumbo is popular among the classics lovers it doesn't hold that high a place in pop culture that other classics do.
  • Penguins (4/17) - it's the latest of the Disney Nature documentary, they barely make 10-15m
  • Avengers: Endgame (4/26) - being moved up into April like Infinity War is likely a great play. There's really no telling how big this will go until it's over.
  • Aladdin (5/24) - the second of the re-tellings, will probably be more well received that Dunbo. But if there is any off feelings from Dumbo this movie could suffer slightly from it.
  • Toy Story 4 (6/21) - our Pixar movie of the year. Hard to tell how it will go, many were expecting the series to be over with 3, but just as many are excited to see it continue.
  • The Lion King (7/19) - they're betting a lot on this movie. It appears to be in good hands and it's one of the most beloved of the modern classics so I expect of the three in this category this year this one will do the best .
  • Artemis Fowl (8/9) - guess this is still a thing? It's been in some kind of development since the first book came out in 2001. Honestly this is likely to go the way of Nutcracker.
  • Frozen 2 (11/22) - no one knows which side to come down on this one with. 400m domestic is a tall order to repeat on for even the best franchises. Did people's love thaw? With so little to go in it's to soon to tell
  • Star Wars: Episode IX (12/20) - rounding out the year with Star Wars has been a great boot. How much of it's take will come in 2019 is the question.
Are we looking at another 3 Billion dollar domestic year? Maybe? It's not a sure thing.

Between Endgame and Episode IX that's likely worth a Billion on it's own at least. The Dumbo/Aladdin/Lion King trifecta could do the same even with only one break out hit. The remaining slate of Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4, Artemis Fowl, and Frozen 2 (with Penguins for padding) seems reasonably likely as well for combined Billion.

I think it's more likely than not Disney will hit the 3 Billion mark, and if so overtake their 2018 record just on their own movies. IF the Fox box office starts counting for Disney ... it could be a 4 BILLION year. At that point there's no catching up for other studios for at least a year or two.
Disney/Fox should easily break 5 billion combined in North America.
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Looking forward to 2019, even with the potential juggernauts they have in the wings, Disney might still have an uphill climb to top their 2018 numbers with just their own in-company releases. With Fox they can but with uncertainty of how/when/IF the combined box office with be calculated we'll have to exclude them for the time being.

As of now they have 10 releases scheduled, while that's the same number they had in 2018, they're starting the year with less potential in hold overs banking on Mary Poppins Returns when in year's past they've had a Star Wars movie to boost their front end. There are no releases until March.

  • Captain Marvel (3/8) - while she's a beloved character it's unlikely she'll have the sway Black Panther did. Even with a good fan embrace it will rank in around Guardians numbers.
  • Dumbo (3/29) - of the THREE "live action" re-tellings this year this is the one that feels most poised to fail to me. Burton is not the draw he used to be and while Dumbo is popular among the classics lovers it doesn't hold that high a place in pop culture that other classics do.
  • Penguins (4/17) - it's the latest of the Disney Nature documentary, they barely make 10-15m
  • Avengers: Endgame (4/26) - being moved up into April like Infinity War is likely a great play. There's really no telling how big this will go until it's over.
  • Aladdin (5/24) - the second of the re-tellings, will probably be more well received that Dunbo. But if there is any off feelings from Dumbo this movie could suffer slightly from it.
  • Toy Story 4 (6/21) - our Pixar movie of the year. Hard to tell how it will go, many were expecting the series to be over with 3, but just as many are excited to see it continue.
  • The Lion King (7/19) - they're betting a lot on this movie. It appears to be in good hands and it's one of the most beloved of the modern classics so I expect of the three in this category this year this one will do the best .
  • Artemis Fowl (8/9) - guess this is still a thing? It's been in some kind of development since the first book came out in 2001. Honestly this is likely to go the way of Nutcracker.
  • Frozen 2 (11/22) - no one knows which side to come down on this one with. 400m domestic is a tall order to repeat on for even the best franchises. Did people's love thaw? With so little to go in it's to soon to tell
  • Star Wars: Episode IX (12/20) - rounding out the year with Star Wars has been a great boot. How much of it's take will come in 2019 is the question.
Are we looking at another 3 Billion dollar domestic year? Maybe? It's not a sure thing.

Between Endgame and Episode IX that's likely worth a Billion on it's own at least. The Dumbo/Aladdin/Lion King trifecta could do the same even with only one break out hit. The remaining slate of Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4, Artemis Fowl, and Frozen 2 (with Penguins for padding) seems reasonably likely as well for combined Billion.

I think it's more likely than not Disney will hit the 3 Billion mark, and if so overtake their 2018 record just on their own movies. IF the Fox box office starts counting for Disney ... it could be a 4 BILLION year. At that point there's no catching up for other studios for at least a year or two.
While I agree Captain Marvel won't make Black Panther numbers, I also think it will make more money then you think. I believe it will be closer to Black Panther than Guardians (550 to 600 million). I just get the feeling from sites, friends and people following trailers that people are very excited for this movie.

I agree about Dumbo and Aladdin to a sense. I think many will call Aladdin a big disappointment mainly because Robin Williams made that animated movie. You just can't replace him. But personally I think what Aladdin may lack I think Dumbo may make up on. It is not Beauty and the Beast, but I think this will have many really excited (personal anecdotes mean little, but of my friends and family, Dumbo is the one they talk about most). I do think Lion King will be huge, making at least those two movies combined, and closer to what Beauty and the Beast made.

I am excited for Toy Story 4, but also really nervous. I want it really bad to be great, but I also can't see how it can be on the same level as the first 3. Maybe there will be enough people that feel the same way that will make it do pretty well.

And Frozen 2 - if you can get over not comparing to the first one, I think this will do very well. But when you compare it to the first one, I don't think it will.

Personally, I think this will end up being more than last year, but mainly because of their top two releases (even with Star Wars so late). I think End Game will have a really good chance of beating the top two movies from 2018, and I still have faith that the last Star Wars, even with what happened last movie with some fans, will challenge as one of the higher making movies as well. But only time will tell. I may be reaching the most with Star Wars, but...maybe the opening of the two lands will have a significant impact on the box office too.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Disney/Fox should easily break 5 billion combined in North America.
They have the slate to break 5 Billion, but both Disney and Fox have been swinging and missing enough to make me question the ability to get that number. With a combined 23 movies that breaks out to an average take of 217.4m per 2019 movie to top 5 Billion. There are just not that many movies that can do a high enough level of business to compensate for what a typical movie makes. For every single sub 100m movie there has to be a 335m or better movie to balance that. Even the expected giant takes from the likes of Endgame or Star Wars can only spread so far.

Don't get me wrong, it's 100% possible for a 5 Billion year, and if there was ever a stacked slate of potential over preforming movies ... 2019 is the year for it.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
They have the slate to break 5 Billion, but both Disney and Fox have been swinging and missing enough to make me question the ability to get that number. With a combined 23 movies that breaks out to an average take of 217.4m per 2019 movie to top 5 Billion. There are just not that many movies that can do a high enough level of business to compensate for what a typical movie makes. For every single sub 100m movie there has to be a 335m or better movie to balance that. Even the expected giant takes from the likes of Endgame or Star Wars can only spread so far.

Don't get me wrong, it's 100% possible for a 5 Billion year, and if there was ever a stacked slate of potential over preforming movies ... 2019 is the year for it.
Time will tell. You may be right because the public only has so much money and they may be cannibalizing their own box office numbers. And they could blow it like they did with Wrinkle in Time and Nutcracker. If they had done a good job with them and Solo they could have made it to 4 billion in 2018.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It's far enough out to do some wild mass guessing for the Disney's stale! For this round I'll stick to the 'Spring' movies of Captain Marvel, Dumbo, and Penguins.


Captain Marvel (March 8th) - I'll preface this by saying that I am a massive Captain Marvel fan stretching back into her Ms. Marvel days (and Warbird ... and Binary) however I am still nervous about this movie. Carol has a weird arc even by comic standards, and has no where near the amount of cultural cachet that a character like Black Panther (or Wonder Woman) has. Marvel Studios has a good track record of taking B or C team popularity characters and making them stars, all of the ones that have broken out have something unique on the side but that's not been a guarantee of success. Early sellouts of fan events and Thursday preview shows are tempered by reasonable availability for Friday to Sunday shows ... which is in turn tempered by the record early availability of tickets. Stand alone movies (bar Black Panther) have topped out at about the 400m mark, first outing movies fair lower, but this is the direct lead into Endgame and that's a valuable boost.

As things stand currently I'm expecting on the low end a 350m take (for reference that's better than the Guardians 1 and Homecoming), anything less than that would seem to be unlikely. If the movie proves to be a re-watch fest with low preforming competition I could see it trending into the 500m range. Box Office Pro is calling for a 465m run with a 160m OW; I don't know if I would give it quite that high of a run yet but with new developments maybe, especially as there is little direct competition until Shazam on April 5th.


Dumbo (March 29th) - This one might be the wild card of the year. Disney's track record with their 're-imagining' movies are firmly sink or swim. Recent ones like Beauty and the Beast and The Jungle Book have been amazing over performers, while Alice Through the Looking Glass and Nutcracker and the Four Realms utterly tanked. I fear that with it's whimsical nature, few school breaks near release, and middle of the road buzz it's likely to land on the lower side. It may have a long tail starting so early in Spring and word of mouth on good photo-realistic effects can boost it.

On a bad low end it could be sub 100m, but with the names attached it should break that. Realistically I don't see it doing better than something like Maleficent at 240m with the info I have currently.


Penguins (April 17th) - It's a Disney Nature documentary ... if it cracks 25m I'd be shocked.
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
Watched the Marvel Day at Sea show online and saw people lost their spit when Captain Marvel ziplined in.

You would think that Captain Marvel would be in the Ant-Man or Doctor Strange level of MCU, but, she's going to do for girls and women what Black Panther did for Blacks and Africans. I think there are more potential female movie-goers than Black ones. Not to mention that's the movie that prequels Endgame like Black Panther did for Infinity War. I can't imagine anyone who's going to see Endgame will skip CM.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Watched the Marvel Day at Sea show online and saw people lost their spit when Captain Marvel ziplined in.

You would think that Captain Marvel would be in the Ant-Man or Doctor Strange level of MCU, but, she's going to do for girls and women what Black Panther did for Blacks and Africans. I think there are more potential female movie-goers than Black ones. Not to mention that's the movie that prequels Endgame like Black Panther did for Infinity War. I can't imagine anyone who's going to see Endgame will skip CM.
I saw the Tim Tracker cruise video that had showed the Marvel show and people did have a great response! That pleased me greatly because I do want this movie to do as well as possible. She will do a good percent above the ranks of Ant-Man and Strange fairly easily (provided nothing catastrophic happens).

While on numbers alone there are more potential female movie-goers than potential black movie-goers, its not just matter of getting a raw number of butts in seats but getting repeat butts in seats, plus new butts in seats. Black Panther was serving both an undeserved market and created a new market that generated a significant repeat business. Captain Marvel isn't going to bring as many first timers to the MCU and likely won't have as high an average of views-per-person.

A little inside baseball here: I deal with special events a lot, and that sometimes intersects with movies. The number of Black Panther related things we dealt with was unprecedented in the movie realm outside of Star Wars Episode releases. Captain Marvel is ranking about that of a good/average Disney release. The stuff I deal with doesn't correlate 1:1 with how they do at the box office but it's in the ballpark enough to make an ok enough guess. It is to early to tell for Captain Marvel, but at this point out from Black Panther we had nearly 2x as much related going on with it and the tickets hadn't gone on sale yet.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Question. How is the box office for Glass going to be tracked? Universal is handling North America but Disney has the international. It is great that the two companies worked this out and showed they can work together.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Looking forward to 2019, even with the potential juggernauts they have in the wings, Disney might still have an uphill climb to top their 2018 numbers with just their own in-company releases. With Fox they can but with uncertainty of how/when/IF the combined box office with be calculated we'll have to exclude them for the time being.

As of now they have 10 releases scheduled, while that's the same number they had in 2018, they're starting the year with less potential in hold overs banking on Mary Poppins Returns when in year's past they've had a Star Wars movie to boost their front end. There are no releases until March.

  • Captain Marvel (3/8) - while she's a beloved character it's unlikely she'll have the sway Black Panther did. Even with a good fan embrace it will rank in around Guardians numbers.
  • Dumbo (3/29) - of the THREE "live action" re-tellings this year this is the one that feels most poised to fail to me. Burton is not the draw he used to be and while Dumbo is popular among the classics lovers it doesn't hold that high a place in pop culture that other classics do.
  • Penguins (4/17) - it's the latest of the Disney Nature documentary, they barely make 10-15m
  • Avengers: Endgame (4/26) - being moved up into April like Infinity War is likely a great play. There's really no telling how big this will go until it's over.
  • Aladdin (5/24) - the second of the re-tellings, will probably be more well received that Dunbo. But if there is any off feelings from Dumbo this movie could suffer slightly from it.
  • Toy Story 4 (6/21) - our Pixar movie of the year. Hard to tell how it will go, many were expecting the series to be over with 3, but just as many are excited to see it continue.
  • The Lion King (7/19) - they're betting a lot on this movie. It appears to be in good hands and it's one of the most beloved of the modern classics so I expect of the three in this category this year this one will do the best .
  • Artemis Fowl (8/9) - guess this is still a thing? It's been in some kind of development since the first book came out in 2001. Honestly this is likely to go the way of Nutcracker.
  • Frozen 2 (11/22) - no one knows which side to come down on this one with. 400m domestic is a tall order to repeat on for even the best franchises. Did people's love thaw? With so little to go in it's to soon to tell
  • Star Wars: Episode IX (12/20) - rounding out the year with Star Wars has been a great boot. How much of it's take will come in 2019 is the question.
Are we looking at another 3 Billion dollar domestic year? Maybe? It's not a sure thing.

Between Endgame and Episode IX that's likely worth a Billion on it's own at least. The Dumbo/Aladdin/Lion King trifecta could do the same even with only one break out hit. The remaining slate of Captain Marvel, Toy Story 4, Artemis Fowl, and Frozen 2 (with Penguins for padding) seems reasonably likely as well for combined Billion.

I think it's more likely than not Disney will hit the 3 Billion mark, and if so overtake their 2018 record just on their own movies. IF the Fox box office starts counting for Disney ... it could be a 4 BILLION year. At that point there's no catching up for other studios for at least a year or two.

I long have been a proponent that 2019 is the year for Disney box office records. Totally ignoring the slate that is now Fox/Disney. This was Iger's retirement year, everything from the studio presence (arguably a sequel for every studios biggest franchise in one year) to the bicoastal Galaxies Edge Projects. Then of course Fox happened and the rest is history.

What 2018 did though was absolutely shock us out of the gate. Black Panther re-wrote Q1 box office performance and likely is something we won't see from a major studio again anytime soon. That near 900million holdover/Black Panther/Wrinkle combo was shocking. Even if all the leg work was Black Panther.

2018 continued to roll on successfully into Q2 with stellar performances by Avengers and Incredibles 2. Solo being the first underperformance that perhaps gave 2019 a comeback chance.

Q3/4 honestly were not great. 78% of Disney's record setting 2018 was driven by movies released BEFORE Q3. This is the window that 2019 will overtake.


Q1 is always strongly going to be in 2018's favour. The ultimate question is how much of a Captain Marvel v.s. Black Panther deficit will 2019 be battling back for. Long range tracking is now calling the opening weekend for Captain Marvel 140-180million. I do NOT think it is a 700 million dollar movie, that's a total aberration. But we are seemingly looking at something that is going to do very well.
(Dumbo/Wrinkle being a wash, I don't see Dumbo so spectacularly performing i.e. >300 million or so spectacularly failing i.e. <<100million that it sways the year).

Q2 is the start of 2019's ability to keep pace. Avengers is going to hit similar numbers and be a wash. Extreme variability would call +/- 200million. Aladdin (while my personal favourite renaissance film has an uphill battle). But it only really has to live up to Solo. I can't see one of the big renaissance film remakes doing less than 200 million. But we couldn't have seen Star Wars barely cracking 200. I think the negativity surrounding the latter was far worse at this point in time. Incredibles 2 performed wildly well. Toy Story 4 still seems like a solid 400million domestic performer. Especially with the run Pixar has been on with their sequels in this summertime slot.

Q3 is the catch-up deficit period. The Lion King is making 300 million dollars more than Ant Man even if it's terrible, terrible garbage. Lion King is probably going to walk away with the summer box office. This is the renaissance movie. If Jon Favreau turned Jungle Book into a 300 million performer... Woof.

Q4 is how 2019 pulls ahead. I liked Ralph, I liked Poppins a lot. But Disney really left 2018 with a whimper. Regardless of the drama, the blow back, the fatigue... Frozen 2 and Episode 9 are still going to be front loaded and bring big box office dollars to cap off the year.

I think how high the year goes all hinges on how some of the more dubious movies perform. Can Captain Marvel claw closer to Black Panther? Will Aladdin escape doldrums and start to pull closer to Beauty and the Beast? Then will Frozen/Episode 9 overcome or submit to fatigue. Are people obligatorily going to Toy Story 4 or will they embrace it? Dumbo and Artemis don't matter and nor do I expect them to. Lion King is not dubious, it's more a question of will it be the biggest movie of the summer or the biggest movie of the year.
 
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WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
A few release schedule modifications, nothing of note for our main interests but fun to note how things move around.
  • Warner Bros removed an untitled event film from Aug 8th
  • Warner Bros moved Doctor Sleep up to Nov 8th (originally Jan 24th, 2020)
  • Sony moved Greyhound to May 8th 2020 (originally Mar 22nd)
  • Sony moved Grudge to Jan 3 2020 (originally June 21st)
  • Sony added Black and Blue on Sept 20th
  • Sony moved A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood to Nov 22nd (originally Oct 18th)
  • Paramount moved Rhythm Section to Nov 22nd (originally Feb 22nd)
  • Paramount added Crawl on Aug 23rd
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Time start going over our "Summer" Rock Block of movies lets start with ...

Avengers: Endgame (April 26th) - I guess the Summer movie season officially starts at the end of April now. There's no question on if this movie will do well, it's more of will it lean higher or lower than Infinity War. It's a part 2 without being a part 2, it's the end of a series that's still in progress with no end in sight, and it's likely to be the sign-off for many characters that became cinematic goldmines. This could be one of only a handful of movies in history that could release no further information, trailers, or press ... and still land in the top 5 opening weekends of all time. There's not much tracking on it yet but with Infinity War clearing 678.8m it's reasonable to guesstimate a similar range. Most will predict an as-good or better showing than the prior, and that's probably accurate with a 2 week buffer on either side for direct competition. Shazam! on April 5th and Hellboy on April 12th will be on the downswing and there is little following competition, maybe a slight one by Detective Pikachu on May 10th but by the time John Wick 3 is out on May 17th that will be their 4th weekend.

Barring any real world snappening anything less than 670m would be unexpected. It could reasonably out pace Black Panther's 700m to take the #3 all time domestic spot, but overtaking Avatar's 760m is somewhat unlikely. The #1 opening weekend record for Infinity War is 257m, something similar for Endgame is very likely, even a 260m+ is reasonable.
 

khlaylav

Member
I think I'm a bit more bullish on Captain Marvel than you just because I think there's a rather large cultural cachet with her (like the Carol Corps and Kamala Corps). I dunno exactly where I saw it but apparently the presale tickets are doing really well which is a good sign. It'll really be about staying power, and while I don't think it'll hit Black Panther numbers, it'll do quite well because of the fact that people have been waiting for a female-led, female directed Marvel movie for a long time.

As for Aladdin, I think it really depends on how Will Smith looks as Genie. I don't think we've actually seen any footage of him and the reaction to that will say a lot.

Finally, on Avengers, you may have hit the nail on the head with Detective Pikachu. I have a gut feeling that's going to be a bigger threat than we think thanks to it being Pokémon.

Again these are all really uninformed, off the cuff takes and I'm glad you have a thread like this to speculate!
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I think I'm a bit more bullish on Captain Marvel than you just because I think there's a rather large cultural cachet with her (like the Carol Corps and Kamala Corps). I dunno exactly where I saw it but apparently the presale tickets are doing really well which is a good sign. It'll really be about staying power, and while I don't think it'll hit Black Panther numbers, it'll do quite well because of the fact that people have been waiting for a female-led, female directed Marvel movie for a long time.

As for Aladdin, I think it really depends on how Will Smith looks as Genie. I don't think we've actually seen any footage of him and the reaction to that will say a lot.

Finally, on Avengers, you may have hit the nail on the head with Detective Pikachu. I have a gut feeling that's going to be a bigger threat than we think thanks to it being Pokémon.

Again these are all really uninformed, off the cuff takes and I'm glad you have a thread like this to speculate!
I am fairly optimistic for Captain Marvel, especially with this being the big lead for Endgame. That's a good boost on it's own separate from Carol's own fanbase. Presales are doing about as okay as expected at this point with many "Fan Events" sold out or with very limited tickets, Thursday shows had a big surge when the tickets went on sale and then slowed. That's a fairly normal trend to see those events and Thursday preform this way for these types of movies. I do sometimes track how my local theaters sell so it may be fun to see how Captain Marvel does!

It looks like the general feelings after the Aladdin teaser are mainly neutral to negative, to early to tell how that will actually effect the movie with 3+ months to go. I still think there will be some residual feelings based on how Dumbo preforms.

🎆 And welcome to the forum! 🎆
 

khlaylav

Member
I am fairly optimistic for Captain Marvel, especially with this being the big lead for Endgame. That's a good boost on it's own separate from Carol's own fanbase. Presales are doing about as okay as expected at this point with many "Fan Events" sold out or with very limited tickets, Thursday shows had a big surge when the tickets went on sale and then slowed. That's a fairly normal trend to see those events and Thursday preform this way for these types of movies. I do sometimes track how my local theaters sell so it may be fun to see how Captain Marvel does!

It looks like the general feelings after the Aladdin teaser are mainly neutral to negative, to early to tell how that will actually effect the movie with 3+ months to go. I still think there will be some residual feelings based on how Dumbo preforms.

🎆 And welcome to the forum! 🎆
Hey, thanks! I've been a long-time lurker so I'm glad I finally bit the bullet and joined.

I haven't even seen the Aladdin teaser but from still shots and general reaction, it's more Beauty and the Beast than Jungle Book in terms of live-action remakes. I saw a screenshot of Will Smith as Genie and, yipe. That being said, Dumbo looks a hair better than I thought so maybe that'll do better.

I think Star Wars 9 will do fine based on it being the final one of the trilogy, no matter how much people complain. Even if it it's Han Solo I feel like Solo was riskier than they thought, so call me an optimist but I think you'll still see 9 do very well.
 
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