2019 Box Office tracking

[Indy_UK]

So Boxoffice Mojo are estimating its finished the weekend on $2,188,689.

It's now passed Force Awkens total gross of $2,086,233

Its passed Titanics $2,187,463


Avatar is sitting at $2,787,965 and I think for the first time feel Avengers could comfortably pass this by the end of its run?

 

[Disney Analyst]

So Boxoffice Mojo are estimating its finished the weekend on $2,188,689.

It's now passed Force Awkens total gross of $2,086,233

Its passed Titanics $2,187,463


Avatar is sitting at $2,787,965 and I think for the first time feel Avengers could comfortably pass this by the end of its run?

I don’t see how it couldn’t? It’s only two weeks in. It has to surpass avatar.

 

[seascape]

I don’t see how it couldn’t? It’s only two weeks in. It has to surpass avatar.

The think to remember is unlike most movies. there is only one market letf to open, Russia. Do I think it can pass Avatar? Yes but China is almost done and passing the domestic box office of TLJ isn't a sure thing. Now, I expect Endgame to be close, between 2.7 to maybe 2.8 billion. If everything goes right it has a very slight chance of 3 billion but I don't expect it.

 

[jt04]

Disney now has 6 of the top 10 spots all time. Let that sink in.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

International markets are always hard to predict. The release windows vary so much from country to country and from studio to studio it's hard to know how consistent the sales will be after the opening weekend. And also the reporting form many international markets can be days to even a week behind, and those numbers often doesn't settle until the movie closes in that country. For a case like Endgame that can be 10s of millions under reported until all the markets catch up.

Looks like we're getting a reasonable weekend out of China, Europe, plus a few outliers like South Korea. But many other weekend #s won't officially roll in for a few days, that rest of the world bump can catch you up faster that you'd expect.

From this coming weekend on it's going to be down to domestic holds and some key international market extensions. We should know for sure if Endgame is going to break anymore records after next weekends #s. Right now a good sneeze either way could make or break it.

 

[seascape]

There is only 1 studio to ever break 7 billion in yearly worldwide box office and that is Disney. They will pass the 4 billion worldwide box office receipts this week. I believe their current yearly record is 7.61 billion. The question for this year is when will that record will be broken. They have 3 more big movies before the end of July, Aladdin, Toy Story 4 and Lion King. I expect those 3 along with what is left from Endgame to put them over the 7 billion dollar worldwide box office total and close to the record. That means IMO that sometime during Artemis Fowl Disney will break the worldwide box office record. Anything less than 10 billion worldwide from just the Disney movies would be a major disaster and I expect Disney to break 12 billion. Frozen II and Star Wars 9 should easily combine for over 2 billion and that still leaves Maleficent to fill in any missing money.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Slight bit of news: there is a rumor out that the box office being reported out of China is a bit off. Apparently one of the main reporting sources has been having issues syncing theater receipts since May 1st or 2nd. It's unknown if the estimation given is accurate or if it's purely a guess.

 

[seascape]

Slight bit of news: there is a rumor out that the box office being reported out of China is a bit off. Apparently one of the main reporting sources has been having issues syncing theater receipts since May 1st or 2nd. It's unknown if the estimation given is accurate or if it's purely a guess.

The same thing happened a couple of years ago. Back then I believe the box office was over estimated to make China more important. I may be wront but this time I think they may be underestimated and thus paying the foreign studios less.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

The same thing happened a couple of years ago. Back then I believe the box office was over estimated to make China more important. I may be wront but this time I think they may be underestimated and thus paying the foreign studios less.

Yeah ... China is a bit infamous for skimming 5% off the top. There have been some cases of outright fraud both to bolster local films and lessen imports. So far in this case the errors don't seem to be on purpose, but rather a "our database did a weird thing" situation. (I wouldn't be surprised if the re-synced numbers come in higher and they just 'forget' to fix it though.)

 

[WhatJaneSays]

A few slight adjustments now that the weekend actuals are fully in. Endgame did adjusted up ... still 1.8m short to take The Force Awakens' 2nd weekend record. But competing with a Christmas weekend was always likely to fail.

Internationally, of the 50 markets that both Infinity War and Endgame released in, 19 are already over their Infinity War totals. Some it's just a few 100k, but for about half it's a million or more, and then there is China that has raked in 216m over. For most international markets there is at least another weekend before the long slow trickle of sales sets in.

 

[seascape]

A few slight adjustments now that the weekend actuals are fully in. Endgame did adjusted up ... still 1.8m short to take The Force Awakens' 2nd weekend record. But competing with a Christmas weekend was always likely to fail.

Internationally, of the 50 markets that both Infinity War and Endgame released in, 19 are already over their Infinity War totals. Some it's just a few 100k, but for about half it's a million or more, and then there is China that has raked in 216m over. For most international markets there is at least another weekend before the long slow trickle of sales sets in.

Thanks for the updates. Through Sunday Endgame is now $594,224,128 behind Avatar. Will it make it? I believe the key is this week. There may be 50 million more from China If it can do 300 million more in the domestic market I still don't know if there is 250 million more in the rest of the wotld.

Anything is possible and an argument can be made that gives Endgame 400 million domestically. If that happens it will pass Avatar, but I don't see that much left in the tank. Of course if China's box office is adjusted up 5% or more on error, it could also make it.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Thanks for the updates. Through Sunday Endgame is now $594,224,128 behind Avatar. Will it make it? I believe the key is this week. There may be 50 million more from China If it can do 300 million more in the domestic market I still don't know if there is 250 million more in the rest of the wotld.

Anything is possible and an argument can be made that gives Endgame 400 million domestically. If that happens it will pass Avatar, but I don't see that much left in the tank. Of course if China's box office is adjusted up 5% or more on error, it could also make it.

Personally I don't think it quite has the push to do it. I think China has 625m, maybe 650m. 300-325m out of the rest of Asia/South Asia
400-425m out of Europe. Between Mexico and South America 225m. Everywhere else from Australia to Russia ... 250m?

If domestic matches The Force Awakens it would just barely make it.

It CAN happen, but it can also fall short (or rather not over-preform) in any few markets and miss.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It's tracking the 50% week by week drop off like most movies.

So, we're still looking at $3.5B.

 

[seascape]

It's tracking the 50% week by week drop off like most movies.

So, we're still looking at $3.5B.

The difference you are missing is the Endgame opened in every country except Russia. China is almost over with maybe 50 million more. Rissia even optimistically may be 25 million. Then there most likely is only 300 million left in North America. that totals 375 million and you expect to get 825 million more? Where will it come from? I can see the possibility of just passing Avatar but 3.5 billion is beyond my wildest expectation.

 

[Indy_UK]

I'm going to see it again today for the 2nd time. All helps bump the total

 

[Disney Analyst]

The difference you are missing is the Endgame opened in every country except Russia. China is almost over with maybe 50 million more. Rissia even optimistically may be 25 million. Then there most likely is only 300 million left in North America. that totals 375 million and you expect to get 825 million more? Where will it come from? I can see the possibility of just passing Avatar but 3.5 billion is beyond my wildest expectation.

The real test is this 3rd week I think. If it has strong legs then it will continue. No one thought Avatar would have the legs it had... Many many people have not seen this film yet, I know so many who have waited for it to die down.

 

[Ripken10]

The difference you are missing is the Endgame opened in every country except Russia. China is almost over with maybe 50 million more. Rissia even optimistically may be 25 million. Then there most likely is only 300 million left in North America. that totals 375 million and you expect to get 825 million more? Where will it come from? I can see the possibility of just passing Avatar but 3.5 billion is beyond my wildest expectation.

While I really can't see it getting to 3.5 billion, MisterPenguin may be on to more than you think. Comparing Infinity War, from day 4 to 10 worldwide it made 75% of what it did on opening weekend. Endgame, despite a HUGE opening weekend, it still made 14% more in days 4 to 10 worldwide then it did on opening weekend. That's huge. If it followed more closely to Infinite War (which seems to low ball it), it would easily break the Avatar record and get over 2.8 billion. But it isn't tracking like Infinite War, it is still exceeding those numbers (worldwide), so one could wonder how much longer it can sustain that. It seems worldwide 3 billion is in the cards if it just stays just slightly better than Infinity War, and how much higher is really crazy to think about. I think it will calm down, certainly, but I also don't think it will slow down more than Infinity War did because of how big this event is. I myself think it will settle in the 3 to 3.1 billion.

 

[Disney Analyst]

While I really can't see it getting to 3.5 billion, MisterPenguin may be on to more than you think. Comparing Infinity War, from day 4 to 10 worldwide it made 75% of what it did on opening weekend. Endgame, despite a HUGE opening weekend, it still made 14% more in days 4 to 10 worldwide then it did on opening weekend. That's huge. If it followed more closely to Infinite War (which seems to low ball it), it would easily break the Avatar record and get over 2.8 billion. But it isn't tracking like Infinite War, it is still exceeding those numbers (worldwide), so one could wonder how much longer it can sustain that. It seems worldwide 3 billion is in the cards if it just stays just slightly better than Infinity War, and how much higher is really crazy to think about. I think it will calm down, certainly, but I also don't think it will slow down more than Infinity War did because of how big this event is. I myself think it will settle in the 3 to 3.1 billion.

I mean, it did 10 mil + for Monday this week... all the theatres around me are super full to almost sold out for cheap Tuesday...

 

[Indy_UK]

My cheap Tuesday showing at 4:30pm had about 30 people in there. With a showing every 30-60 minutes, I guess it adds up

 

[Ripken10]

Curious question I thought when I saw Disney's next move release schedule that included Fox (if anyone actually knows the answer not just guessing), do we know yet when they will start including the fox movies into the domestic numbers for Disney? For instance, I know boxofficemojo still has there releases separated. I am curious when it will become official. It feels like Disney is now officially the distributor...