2019 Box Office tracking

[seascape]

Endgame's Domestic Box Office receipts are falling faster than most people thought. Even if it makes 70 million this weekend it will only be at 730 million domestically. There is just no way I see it beaking Avatar's record.

Now for the good news, it looks like Disney broke 4 billion yesterday on their worldwide boxoffice. Unfortunately, for my prediction of the worldwide record of 6.71 billion being broken during Artemis Fowl's release that wont h ar ppen now since it was pushed back to next year. I still think that after Aladdin and Lion King are done Disney will be over 6 billion in worldwide boxoffice but I think they will still be short of the record by the end of the Summer.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Endgame's Domestic Box Office receipts are falling faster than most people thought. Even if it makes 70 million this weekend it will only be at 730 million domestically. There is just no way I see it beaking Avatar's record.

You lack faith.

Colleges are getting out this week and ElHi next month. Engdame will be in theaters all Summer long.

It will easily surpass Avatar.

 

[Ripken10]

You lack faith.

Colleges are getting out this week and ElHi next month. Engdame will be in theaters all Summer long.

It will easily surpass Avatar.

I agree about Worldwide and foreign passing Avatar. It looks like very unlikely it will pass Force domestic, it is just a tough hill to climb there (hoping I am wrong, but I just can't seem to see a way it does it)

 

[seascape]

You lack faith.

Colleges are getting out this week and ElHi next month. Engdame will be in theaters all Summer long.

It will easily surpass Avatar.

It may play well into the Summer but do you really believe it will be playing in the thousands of screens it currently has? Disney has Aladdin coming soon and then Lion King. Of couse look at the number od screens Tolkien is plying in. Disney's power will result in the Fox releases getting more screens snd some will come from other Disney movies. I also am looking forward to saying good by to the Fox Xmen and think that will help Dark Phoenix at the expense of Endgame and there is also Spiderman.

Ad for the international numbers, they are dropping too. China is almost done and they have over 1/3 of the total international revenue. There are lots of new and good movies from the US and local competition as well.

I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it.

 

[Ripken10]

It may play well into the Summer but do you really believe it will be playing in the thousands of screens it currently has? Disney has Aladdin coming soon and then Lion King. Of couse look at the number od screens Tolkien is plying in. Disney's power will result in the Fox releases getting more screens snd some will come from other Disney movies. I also am looking forward to saying good by to the Fox Xmen and think that will help Dark Phoenix at the expense of Endgame and there is also Spiderman.

Ad for the international numbers, they are dropping too. China is almost done and they have over 1/3 of the total international revenue. There are lots of new and good movies from the US and local competition as well.

I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it.

I still don't understand why you think it has such little chance. As of today it only needed less than 460 million to break the international record. It has at least 150 million left domestic (I would say more likely 200 million). So low balling it needs 310 million internationally with that low ball domestic number. It has made over 360 million in the last 7 days internationally without all numbers in yet. Infinite War made 300 million internationally after its second weekend in each country (not 2nd weekend overall, the cumulative of all countries second weekends).

If you were talking domestic, I could see where you are coming from, but I think signs are pointing to worldwide it falling.

 

[Disney Analyst]

It may play well into the Summer but do you really believe it will be playing in the thousands of screens it currently has? Disney has Aladdin coming soon and then Lion King. Of couse look at the number od screens Tolkien is plying in. Disney's power will result in the Fox releases getting more screens snd some will come from other Disney movies. I also am looking forward to saying good by to the Fox Xmen and think that will help Dark Phoenix at the expense of Endgame and there is also Spiderman.

Ad for the international numbers, they are dropping too. China is almost done and they have over 1/3 of the total international revenue. There are lots of new and good movies from the US and local competition as well.

I hope I am wrong but I just don't see it.

Meh. Domestic doesn’t matter as much. Just need that global win.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Boy was that a release calendar drop/shake-up. While Disney let loose with dates for releases out as far as 2027 (guess we'll see in 8 1/2 years how accurate that is), many of the former Fox moves have been shuffled around.

• Ad Astara was moved away from Aladdin's release to 9/20 - likely a wise move for both moves
• Spies in Disguise was moved into a holiday release on 12/25 - counter programming themselves for Star Wars?
• The Art of Racing in the Rain was moved earlier to 8/9 - not sure on this one
• New Mutants was moved to early 2020 - 2 years after its original release date, will it ever come out?
• The Call of the Wild was also moved from its holiday release to early 2020 - presumably to make room for Spies in Disguise

 

[winstongator]

You lack faith.

Colleges are getting out this week and ElHi next month. Engdame will be in theaters all Summer long.

It will easily surpass Avatar.

I inflation adjusted Avatar to $3.25B. I think that will be a lot tougher to beat than Avatar's unadjusted numbers. I might need to revisit the math and post how I came to it.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

So ... in the process of putting the weekend forecasts for Endgame into my calculations a very interesting (to me) result came out.

The main trend line puts Endgame's final domestic in a range of 905m to 930m, falling below the current record. The similar math for the international market puts it at a range of 1.85b to 2.05b, also mostly below the current record. However most combonations of those numbers puts it over the world wide record.

A little bit of math later and I discovered there is a gap of about 175m in box office combinations that Endgame could hit and miss both the domestic and international records, yet still capture the the world wide record.

 

[Indy_UK]

Estimated to end on $2,485,499 by the end of Sunday.

Another $300 million to reach Avatar.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

On Saturday Endgame passed Black Panther to become the highest domestic box office of any Marvel Studio movie. It's now #2 and 213m off the domestic record. With it's current trend it seems like it will miss that mark, but that can always change dramatically.

While Endgame did drop to #2 on the daily chart for Friday, it rebounded back on Saturday and Sunday to take the weekend over it's first major competition Detective Pikachu.

On the international side it's 265m away from the record, and 302m for the word wide (both held my Avatar). Of the 50 markets both Infinity War and Endgame have released 39 Endgame markets have passed the Infinity War numbers. As the 3rd weekend/week numbers come in we'll have a better idea what the global drop offs will be. While many markets have releases in the 6-10 week mark, the vast majority greatly reduce on the 3rd week unless the demand is extremely high.

 

[seascape]

After a much slower start of the year, Disney now only needs 330 million more in Domestic Box office receipts for the rest of May to catch up to last year. With what is left from Endgame in 19 days and Aladdin for the first week 330 million is a reasonable expectation.

 

[Indy_UK]

$4 million Monday finish for Endgame. Even if it stayed steady at say $30 million a week, 10 weeks of that to beat Avatar may be asking too much

 

[seascape]

$4 million Monday finish for Endgame. Even if it stayed steady at say $30 million a week, 10 weeks of that to beat Avatar may be asking too much

It won't stay even. It should do 30 plus million this week domestically but continue to drop off. Same thing internationally but drop off faster. I just don't see it passing Avatar internationally but it should domestically and end up number 2 just like it will worldwide. Is this disappointing? Yes but only because it blew every opening number away. Ending at 2.7 billion is a great number and something that everyone a month ago would have thought was amazing.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It won't stay even. It should do 30 plus million this week domestically but continue to drop off. Same thing internationally but drop off faster. I just don't see it passing Avatar internationally but it should domestically and end up number 2 just like it will worldwide. Is this disappointing? Yes but only because it blew every opening number away. Ending at 2.7 billion is a great number and something that everyone a month ago would have thought was amazing.

It will easily pass $3B.

It's math.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

With the estimation of Endgame total reaching 770-772m by the end of the weekend, that officially drops the trend line just bellow 900m for it's domestic run. The expected range still spans 875-915m, so it's not unlikely, just less likely now.

This weekend they are likely to lose the rest of their premium screens to John Wick 3. While many showings of Endgame are still making good sales, the number of screens per theater are going to lower.

 

[Indy_UK]

If it has a good weekend and end up at $2.6 billion then another $170 million may happen.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Current tracking is estimating a just below a 2.6B world wide after this weekend. Unfortunately if that's the case, unless there is a fairly high hold over that would put the final estimate at between 2.70B and 2.78B ... for as little as 8 million under Avatar's record.

HOWEVER looking at the bump that Captain Marvel got in the 2 weeks before Endgame came out domestically and the low drops internationally with more that a few bumps ... it could be reasonable to expect a bit of that for Endgame in the run-up to Spider-Man: Far From Home.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I mean it's only 257 million off right now.... It can happen. Who knows what they have planned to try and boost it.

 

[Ripken10]

Current tracking is estimating a just below a 2.6B world wide after this weekend. Unfortunately if that's the case, unless there is a fairly high hold over that would put the final estimate at between 2.70B and 2.78B ... for as little as 8 million under Avatar's record.

HOWEVER looking at the bump that Captain Marvel got in the 2 weeks before Endgame came out domestically and the low drops internationally with more that a few bumps ... it could be reasonable to expect a bit of that for Endgame in the run-up to Spider-Man: Far From Home.

Well let's think about that. If (assumption here), they were only 8 million off...no way in the world Disney will let it miss. In fact, I am sure that they are already planning to find ways to get everything they can to make sure it ends up #1 worldwide.