2019 Box Office tracking

[WhatJaneSays]

You know it's a uneventful time when the biggest box office news is Box Office Mojo's redesign! (yikes)

Maleficent 2 just barely squeakd out a #1 weekend over Joker, but it's likely that focus will fall off quickly. It might keep the tiniest of coasting off of Halloween but that's likely it.

Sony finally joined the billion dollar club with Zombieland 2 and new release Black and Blue.

Looking ahead to November it's a pretty varied field with a potentially good installment of Terminator, an unexpected but intriguing sequel with Doctor Sleep, already award seeking Ford v. Ferrari, and ... of course Frozen II. Plus a ton of other awaited movies.

 

[seascape]

You know it's a uneventful time when the biggest box office news is Box Office Mojo's redesign! (yikes)

Maleficent 2 just barely squeakd out a #1 weekend over Joker, but it's likely that focus will fall off quickly. It might keep the tiniest of coasting off of Halloween but that's likely it.

Sony finally joined the billion dollar club with Zombieland 2 and new release Black and Blue.

Looking ahead to November it's a pretty varied field with a potentially good installment of Terminator, an unexpected but intriguing sequel with Doctor Sleep, already award seeking Ford v. Ferrari, and ... of course Frozen II. Plus a ton of other awaited movies.

Worldwide Disney is now at 8.8 billion. With Frozen 2 and SW9 to come it looks like 11 billion is just about guaranteed. In any case the 9 billion estimate from the media in June was grossly incorrect, off 20% or more.

Getting back to Boxofficemojo, I hate what they have done. All the good numbers are now behind the $150 a year paywall.

 

[MisterPenguin]

All the good numbers are now behind the $150 a year paywall.

What numbers were you looking for?

 

[seascape]

What numbers were you looking for?

All the different box office numbers and categories. I especially liked the worldwide numbers. I could just go to the worldwide box office and sort for just the different studios. I know the worldwide numbers are there but now I have to manually add them and it now takes more time.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Worldwide Disney is now at 8.8 billion. With Frozen 2 and SW9 to come it looks like 11 billion is just about guaranteed. In any case the 9 billion estimate from the media in June was grossly incorrect, off 20% or more.

Getting back to Boxofficemojo, I hate what they have done. All the good numbers are now behind the $150 a year paywall.

Yeah ... I feel like BOM kind of over corrected. The site had been in need of a reworking for years now and they need to incentivize people to actually pay for their aggregating services.

On the purely design side it's a okay enough improvement. But they fell into my most hated design sin: making the click path longer. If I could get to nearly any page before in 4 clicks or less and the re-design can take 10 clicks or more ... that is not a good redesign. Its a bulk data driven site, the pathing and wayfinding is not great.

As for the data that's public facing or paywalled now, I'm not an expert. I wasn't a particularly heavy user of BOM (I have access to a professional service that I get reports from). Most of the basic stuff I browsed for I was eventually able to find, however most of the unusual lists they kept seem to be gone, unfindable, or paywalled; primarily studio, genre, and cast/crew based data.

The price really seems to be the big balking point. $20 a month or $150 seems reasonable as a business expense, however their primary user base are not businesses. Most businesses that would directly use that data would not be using BOM/IMDB for this either but rather a service like Comscore. Their users are almost exclusively random nerds like me that like numbers as a hobby (or reporters) and they didn't price accordingly. If they had a $3-5/month service they could make a good chunk of change.

 

[seascape]

Yeah ... I feel like BOM kind of over corrected. The site had been in need of a reworking for years now and they need to incentivize people to actually pay for their aggregating services.

On the purely design side it's a okay enough improvement. But they fell into my most hated design sin: making the click path longer. If I could get to nearly any page before in 4 clicks or less and the re-design can take 10 clicks or more ... that is not a good redesign. Its a bulk data driven site, the pathing and wayfinding is not great.

As for the data that's public facing or paywalled now, I'm not an expert. I wasn't a particularly heavy user of BOM (I have access to a professional service that I get reports from). Most of the basic stuff I browsed for I was eventually able to find, however most of the unusual lists they kept seem to be gone, unfindable, or paywalled; primarily studio, genre, and cast/crew based data.

The price really seems to be the big balking point. $20 a month or $150 seems reasonable as a business expense, however their primary user base are not businesses. Most businesses that would directly use that data would not be using BOM/IMDB for this either but rather a service like Comscore. Their users are almost exclusively random nerds like me that like numbers as a hobby (or reporters) and they didn't price accordingly. If they had a $3-5/month service they could make a good chunk of change.

I emailed them and suggested a $50.00 a year membership for the box office numbers would be reasonable for an individual.

 

[Ripken10]

Yeah ... I feel like BOM kind of over corrected. The site had been in need of a reworking for years now and they need to incentivize people to actually pay for their aggregating services.

On the purely design side it's a okay enough improvement. But they fell into my most hated design sin: making the click path longer. If I could get to nearly any page before in 4 clicks or less and the re-design can take 10 clicks or more ... that is not a good redesign. Its a bulk data driven site, the pathing and wayfinding is not great.

As for the data that's public facing or paywalled now, I'm not an expert. I wasn't a particularly heavy user of BOM (I have access to a professional service that I get reports from). Most of the basic stuff I browsed for I was eventually able to find, however most of the unusual lists they kept seem to be gone, unfindable, or paywalled; primarily studio, genre, and cast/crew based data.

The price really seems to be the big balking point. $20 a month or $150 seems reasonable as a business expense, however their primary user base are not businesses. Most businesses that would directly use that data would not be using BOM/IMDB for this either but rather a service like Comscore. Their users are almost exclusively random nerds like me that like numbers as a hobby (or reporters) and they didn't price accordingly. If they had a $3-5/month service they could make a good chunk of change.

For me personally, a number junkie, box office mojo was great to find some neat stats any day when I needed it quick. A lot of that is not obtainable, or like you said, takes way too many clicks to get to. A lot of the more interesting numbers you can't get to any more. They also limited their lists more than they used to. For example, not a big one, but their adjusted for inflation list used to be 300, but now you can only see the top 200. Some list used to have thousands, but now are also limited a great deal. Just a lot less compelling to see and review.

 

[jt04]

I emailed them and suggested a $50.00 a year membership for the box office numbers would be reasonable for an individual.

Seems like an opportunity for someone to start a new BOM. It was once a rather small 1 or 2 person operation.

Was interesting tracking Disney numbers this year vs the field. Doubt we will see another year like 2019.

 

[seascape]

Seems like an opportunity for someone to start a new BOM. It was once a rather small 1 or 2 person operation.

Was interesting tracking Disney numbers this year vs the field. Doubt we will see another year like 2019.

Yes, 2019 was an amazing year for Disney's box office. Including Fox they are over 10.5 billion wotldwide already. Disney also did everything they could to maximize their movie slate to help build demand for Disney Plus. However, in the future I expect the Fox Division to have better numbers and as a result the combinef international numbers to continue well over 10 billion a year worldwide.

The next step worldwide is to build up their production in India and expand in China. Asia has well over 3 billion people and a middleclass population double the entire US population and the Fox assets give them a major headstart over Netflix, Comcast and AT&T.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Seems like an opportunity for someone to start a new BOM. It was once a rather small 1 or 2 person operation.

Was interesting tracking Disney numbers this year vs the field. Doubt we will see another year like 2019.

The Numbers has been stepping up with a lot of information and new pages/lists with info that BOM had either paywalled or stopped tracking. They seem to be to listening to the community and have been very upfront with what their site could be. The box office tracking groups I regular seem to be happy with them so far.


This has been a fascinating year (few years really) of Disney box office. Next year is going to be an entirely different beast with entirely new products, first solo outings, no sequels/reboots/remakes, and Fox under them.

 

[Darkprime]

Joker hit 900M. What an incredible run. 1 billion is possible. Nice to see a studio that's not Disney do well lol.

Box Office Bonanza: ‘Joker’ Crosses $900M Worldwide

Fall blockbuster 'Joker' racked up another milestone on Saturday as it crossed the $900 million mark in worldwide ticket sales.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[MisterPenguin]

Joker hit 900M. What an incredible run. 1 billion is possible. Nice to see a studio that's not Disney do well lol.

Box Office Bonanza: ‘Joker’ Crosses $900M Worldwide

Fall blockbuster 'Joker' racked up another milestone on Saturday as it crossed the $900 million mark in worldwide ticket sales.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Yeah, if they made billion dollar movies, too, it wouldn't seem like Disney has a monopoly on the market.

 

[MisterPenguin]

All the different box office numbers and categories. I especially liked the worldwide numbers. I could just go to the worldwide box office and sort for just the different studios. I know the worldwide numbers are there but now I have to manually add them and it now takes more time.

So... something like this?...

Movie Report

A movie report based on the following criteria: Min Release Year: 2019, Max Release Year: 2019

www.the-numbers.com

It's easy enough to cut and paste into a spreadsheet and sort on distributor.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Looking at the standings now and judging where the box office is heading for the rest of the year ... it's definitely going to be a domestic Billion dollar club of only 4 this year. #5 Lionsgate and #6 Paramount are to far behind to catch up.

There probably won't be another member at the 2 Billion table either. While #2 Warner Bros is poised to cross 1.5 Billion soon their remaining slate is unlikely to put them over. #3 Universal is in a similar state nearing 1.2 Billion, but unlikely to have any surprises (unless Cats catches us all off guard). #4 Sony at just over a Billion currently is the most poised for the biggest jump with the 3rd/2nd Jumanji movie, 2017's outing massively over preformed and stayed strong. Maybe not enough to get Sony to 1.5 Billion by the end of the year on it's own but with the rest of their releases it might.

Even sitting at 2.9 Billion with the cold reception Maleficent 2 had Disney won't reach that 3 Billion until opening weekend for Frozen 2. After that ... it's all money until the year's end it's just a matter of how much. The original Frozen made 263m up to year end and that was off a prety mild-ish 93m holiday week opening (well 10 days because Frozen had a pre-run of 5 days at the El Capitan). There are projections anywhere from 110-150m just for opening weekend. On the Star Wars front even the worst tracking has it at 180m opening weekend (which would still put it around in the top 10 opening weekends of all time) up to in the 220-230m range. Provided nothing goes catastrophically off Disney is sitting on a 3.5+ Billion dollar egg.

 

[seascape]

Looking at the standings now and judging where the box office is heading for the rest of the year ... it's definitely going to be a domestic Billion dollar club of only 4 this year. #5 Lionsgate and #6 Paramount are to far behind to catch up.

There probably won't be another member at the 2 Billion table either. While #2 Warner Bros is poised to cross 1.5 Billion soon their remaining slate is unlikely to put them over. #3 Universal is in a similar state nearing 1.2 Billion, but unlikely to have any surprises (unless Cats catches us all off guard). #4 Sony at just over a Billion currently is the most poised for the biggest jump with the 3rd/2nd Jumanji movie, 2017's outing massively over preformed and stayed strong. Maybe not enough to get Sony to 1.5 Billion by the end of the year on it's own but with the rest of their releases it might.

Even sitting at 2.9 Billion with the cold reception Maleficent 2 had Disney won't reach that 3 Billion until opening weekend for Frozen 2. After that ... it's all money until the year's end it's just a matter of how much. The original Frozen made 263m up to year end and that was off a prety mild-ish 93m holiday week opening (well 10 days because Frozen had a pre-run of 5 days at the El Capitan). There are projections anywhere from 110-150m just for opening weekend. On the Star Wars front even the worst tracking has it at 180m opening weekend (which would still put it around in the top 10 opening weekends of all time) up to in the 220-230m range. Provided nothing goes catastrophically off Disney is sitting on a 3.5+ Billion dollar egg.

Looking at the worldwide boxoffice, Disney is now at 8.9 billion. Based on that it is certain that they will pass 11 billion. I don't think they will make 12 but it is not totally impossible. just that even if Frozen 2 and SW kills it. the calendar prevents them from making it by 12/31.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Ooopp ... I forgot to mention that Aladdin ended it's run at 355.5m domestic and just over a Billion world wide.

At a run of 22 weeks it had some of the craziest holds I've seen in a while. It has the best legs of Disney's year so far, at a x3.9 opening weekend to finals.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

Three days to Frozen 2 and it looks like Elsa iced the weekend box office. Besides Ford v Ferrari bringing in 31.4m, just about what the expectation was, the 2 other wide openers didn't do so hot. The 2nd weekends held just as badly as projected. There has been a wide range of high expectation flops and under performers the last few months. Really only Joker has over performed, to the point of joining the billion dollar club.

Looking that the limited slates for the rest of the year it's going to be mostly Disney likely dominating the box office with a healthy splash of Jumanji on the side.

Frozen 2 is looking at a pretty easy 100m+ opening weekend, most are forecasting in the 115-125m range but some are purring the trend lines up as high as 140m. Even predictions on the weekday and 2nd weekend are high, attributed mostly to schools being out for the Thanksgiving break.

 

[Ripken10]

Three days to Frozen 2 and it looks like Elsa iced the weekend box office. Besides Ford v Ferrari bringing in 31.4m, just about what the expectation was, the 2 other wide openers didn't do so hot. The 2nd weekends held just as badly as projected. There has been a wide range of high expectation flops and under performers the last few months. Really only Joker has over performed, to the point of joining the billion dollar club.

Looking that the limited slates for the rest of the year it's going to be mostly Disney likely dominating the box office with a healthy splash of Jumanji on the side.

Frozen 2 is looking at a pretty easy 100m+ opening weekend, most are forecasting in the 115-125m range but some are purring the trend lines up as high as 140m. Even predictions on the weekday and 2nd weekend are high, attributed mostly to schools being out for the Thanksgiving break.

Most say that Ford V Ferrari over performed. Industry expectations were 21 to 30 million which it exceeded. BoxofficePro was more optimistic (which they said was more so than what the industry was expecting) at 32 million and BoxOfficeMojo predicted 22 million. Box office pro called it a "breakout performance".

 

[seascape]

Disney is closing in on 9 billion worldwide. With Frozen 2 predicted at over a billion, 11 billion looks very likely. On the domestic front, Frozen looks like 400 million or more so that would bring Disney's domestic numbers to 3.3 billion. So, my prediction for the year is 3.8 billion domestic and 11 billion worldwide.

 

[WhatJaneSays]

With Frozen 2 bringing in 41.8m between the Thurs previews and Friday that's put the Disney releases just 20m shy of 3 billion domestic. Today they'll cross the 3 billion mark again. Last year's final stood at 3.092 billion; odds are they'll blow by that before next weekend.

Some estimations for Frozen 2's opening weekend have adjusted to 110-115m, but I think some are underestimating the potential Friday to Saturday market ratio. There were no Fan Events and relativity few late night shows on Thursday, both of which tend to inflate the Friday take. They smartly chose to do the Fan Events on Saturday morning instead, that plus kids actually being off school all day is likely going to give a bigger than typical bump.