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2019 Box Office tracking
- Thread starter WhatJaneSays
- Start date
It was a rather boring week for Disney. Toy Story 4 is still moving up the list and will break a billion dollars this week, bringing Disney's total movies for the year breaking that majic number to 5, with Frozen 2 and Rise of Skywalker still to come. Disney is just about to 2.75 billion domestically and a little shy of 8.2 billion worldwide. The questions left for the Summer is will Lion King reach 1.5 billion and is it an animated movie, which I believe, or a live action remake, that Disney claims it is.
As for where Disney will wind up for the year, I am still predicting 11 billion worldwide with 7 billion dollar movies. I just can't understand how Wall Street ever thought this year would only be 9 billion.
As for where Disney will wind up for the year, I am still predicting 11 billion worldwide with 7 billion dollar movies. I just can't understand how Wall Street ever thought this year would only be 9 billion.
Box Office Mojo also confirms TS4 is a billionaire.
Disney has also passed their through October record from last year. It looks like last years record yearly box office will go down shortly after Malisifant 2 comes out.
JohnyKaz2078
Well-Known Member
It's really impressive how the top 6 highest-grossing movies of 2019 worldwide are disney movies. I'm predicting 2 more disney movies grossing 1 billion US$ this year (Frozen 2 and Rise of the Skywalker).
I was expecting Hobbs and Shaw to break the billion dollar mark and be one of the top grossing movies of the year. The amazing fact is that other than the 5 Disney movies and the 6th made by Marvel but distributed by Sony there have been no movies that broke 200 million domestically. That is a very bad sign and horrible for Hollywood and the theater industry.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Or its a sign that Disney takes all the air out of the room when it comes to other Studios and what movie goers will see. Its why Disney is playing big into the nostalgia factor right now with all the live action remakes. Tie the next generation to Disney and keep that money train (underrated movie btw) rolling in.
Hey, for the billionaire club, shouldn't we be counting Endgame twice?
jt04
Well-Known Member
Hey, for the billionaire club, shouldn't we be counting Endgame twice?
Wait a little longer on DVD sales and you can count it 3 times.
JohnyKaz2078
Well-Known Member
Yeah I know but it seems that not many people are interested in the movie. I don't think it will gross higher than $600 million.
I agree. I consider the movie a failure. Given the drop rate the domestic box office will only make it to the 150's millions. That is absolutely horrible for a Fast and Furious movie. Universal has to be worried about that.
The Rock fatigue?
jt04
Well-Known Member
No, F&F fatigue.
that too. Definitely.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I want to highlight what way back in the 2012 era many were foretelling as the complete collapse of the tentpoles as a strategy. This was the mantra against the way Iger was taking the studio.
Fast forward to today - everyone else's tentpoles have collapsed.
We've talked a lot about profitability, but a movie that is maybe-technically profitable, fails to highlight some movie that completely missed their studios expectations
-Like Secret life of Pets 2, albeit with Illuminations super tight production budgets, they actually still spend WDAS/Pixar level on marketing, so it's a bit beyond a formula.
The column highlights rough totals of comparable movies that the studio was probably aiming for. More obvious when a Marvel movie had a direct tie in.
Green are movies that generally beat (or at the very least met if the studio was being ridiculous and it was super overinflated) expectations.
Black is the movie kind of meeting or slightly missing expectations.
Orange is if a movie shed 25% of its potential - or the studio likely expected it to make 1.5x as much.
Red is if a movie shed 50% of its potential - or the studio likely expected it to make 2x as much.
*I realize Hobbs and Shaw is the only movie that can still work its way up a colour category
In the end I am making an argument that no 'tent pole' film met studio expectations outside of Marvel/Disney. Most actually did abysmally. The only successes for another studio this year were decidedly small-small medium films that over index (Us/John Wick).
HTTYD being maybe the only exception.
Bonkers year.
Fast forward to today - everyone else's tentpoles have collapsed.
We've talked a lot about profitability, but a movie that is maybe-technically profitable, fails to highlight some movie that completely missed their studios expectations
-Like Secret life of Pets 2, albeit with Illuminations super tight production budgets, they actually still spend WDAS/Pixar level on marketing, so it's a bit beyond a formula.
The column highlights rough totals of comparable movies that the studio was probably aiming for. More obvious when a Marvel movie had a direct tie in.
Green are movies that generally beat (or at the very least met if the studio was being ridiculous and it was super overinflated) expectations.
Black is the movie kind of meeting or slightly missing expectations.
Orange is if a movie shed 25% of its potential - or the studio likely expected it to make 1.5x as much.
Red is if a movie shed 50% of its potential - or the studio likely expected it to make 2x as much.
*I realize Hobbs and Shaw is the only movie that can still work its way up a colour category
1 | Avengers: Endgame | Infinity War | BV | 2,000 | $2,795.6 |
2 | The Lion King (2019) | B&TB | BV | 1,000-1,250 | $1,351.2 |
3 | Captain Marvel | Strange - GOTG | BV | 600-800 | $1,128.3 |
4 | Spider-Man: Far from Home | Homecoming | Sony | 850 | $1,100.8 |
5 | Aladdin (2019) | Maleficent+ | BV | 750-1000 | $1,035.4 |
6 | Toy Story 4 | TS3 | BV | 800-1000 | $1,002.7 |
7 | The Wandering Earth | N/A | CMC | N/A | $699.8 |
8 | How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World | HTTYD2 | Uni. | 620 | $519.8 |
9 | Pokemon Detective Pikachu | Moderate Range | WB | 500-600 | $431.5 |
10 | Alita: Battle Angel | Moderate Range | Fox | 500-600 | $404.9 |
11 | Godzilla: King of the Monsters | Godzilla 2014 | WB | 500-600 | $385.8 |
12 | The Secret Life of Pets 2 | SLOP 1 | Uni. | 800 | $379.0 |
13 | Shazam! | Ant Man | WB (NL) | 500-600 | $364.5 |
14 | Dumbo (2019) | Mod Range | BV | 500-600 | $353.0 |
15 | Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & Shaw* | 75% FF6-8 | Uni. | 600-800 | $346.8 |
16 | John Wick: Chapter 3 - Parabellum | John Wick | LG/S | 150-200 | $321.2 |
17 | Us | Get Out | Uni. | 150-200 | $254.7 |
18 | Men in Black International | MIB2+ Mod Range | Sony | 500-600 | $252.6 |
19 | Dark Phoenix | Apocalypse Mod | Fox | 500-600 | $252.4 |
20 | Glass | Split | Uni. | 250-300 | $247.0 |
21 | Annabelle Comes Home | Annabelle Series | WB (NL) | 250-300 | $220.5 |
22 | The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part | Lego Movie 1 | WB | 400 | $191.3 |
In the end I am making an argument that no 'tent pole' film met studio expectations outside of Marvel/Disney. Most actually did abysmally. The only successes for another studio this year were decidedly small-small medium films that over index (Us/John Wick).
HTTYD being maybe the only exception.
Bonkers year.
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Many thanks have to go out to Universal for proving Comedies are not dead, even R rated ones. The Good Boys will be number 1 at the box office this weekend with what is now predicted 21 million. This is great news for the industry which has had a bad year, or at least everyone except Disney. It may not be Mavel size but given a 20 million production cost, the profit percentage will be up there near the top.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Some IPs aren't good choices for turning into franchises. Studios often overplay the ones that are. Disney knows how to avoid these pitfalls which is why it looks easy.
Your not alone, many were. The Rock + Statham + Fast and Furious seemed like a solid combination. But it seems like everything not Disney this year is underperforming. I think its a sign of how other studios have failed to build brand trust with their audience while Disney has built brand trust over years by producing quality films.
I disagree. I think Its more likely unnecessary spin-off fatigue. I think audiences got their Hobbs and Shaw fix already. Fate of The Furious did 1.2 billion. I'm expecting Fast 9 to do much better. However I could be wrong and Fast 9 does even worse than Hobbs and Shaw. if that happens then we can start saying the sky is falling cause something then would definitely be wrong. Other studios like WB think they can just slap a popular brand on a film like DC and it guarantees success. Hobbs and Shaw really should have been a standalone film outside fast and furious but Universal wanted the Fast and Furious brand attached to it because it is a trusted brand just not something to the level of a Marvel or Pixar film.
Sorry for the lack of more regular updates and the occasional insight.
It's been convention crunch time for the last bit. Trying to duel prep for my folks going to D23 Expo and for my own group going to Dragon Con at the same time has been ... interesting. Thankfully this has been a quite enough time of year to no have to make updates everyday.
It's been convention crunch time for the last bit. Trying to duel prep for my folks going to D23 Expo and for my own group going to Dragon Con at the same time has been ... interesting. Thankfully this has been a quite enough time of year to no have to make updates everyday.