Box Office Pro projecting 120 million after Friday numbers. Box Office Mojo projecting 130 million after Friday Numbers.
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2019 Box Office tracking
- Thread starter WhatJaneSays
- Start date
Disney Analyst
Well-Known Member
another success. I remember thinking Frozen 2 would flop many eons ago, after all the Frozen burnout. Honestly this film took just long enough that the burnout has faded away and people are ready to dive into that world again.
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The film is now scheduled just a week after Marvel's The Eternals. Yikes.
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The film is now scheduled just a week after Marvel's The Eternals. Yikes.
The last Kong movie made a very small profit. And the last Godzilla movie lost money.
Are we heading towards another a writers strike?
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After Frozen 2's opening weekend Disney is just under 10m away from it's final domestic from 2018. With the majority of Frozen 2's run ahead and the entirety of Episode IX's 2019 numbers ahead of us they could be rolling for a 3.6-3.7billion dollar year.
While I don't expect Frozen 2 to preform quite as highly as the original but it could be reasonable for it to be at 400m by year end. Even with a shorter window and low expectations Episode IX pulling 425m in 2019 is also very likely. BUT ... we're coming into the holiday stretch pretty hot off a cooler than expected box office, there might be some unpredictable bounces and holds. While there are still some buzzed about moves remaining this year, beyond Jumanji (and maybe Cats on an outside chance?) there are no other potential big box office takers. It's within the math that even without Fox, Disney could slide their way to a 4 billion year ... a very low chance but within the margin of error.
While I don't expect Frozen 2 to preform quite as highly as the original but it could be reasonable for it to be at 400m by year end. Even with a shorter window and low expectations Episode IX pulling 425m in 2019 is also very likely. BUT ... we're coming into the holiday stretch pretty hot off a cooler than expected box office, there might be some unpredictable bounces and holds. While there are still some buzzed about moves remaining this year, beyond Jumanji (and maybe Cats on an outside chance?) there are no other potential big box office takers. It's within the math that even without Fox, Disney could slide their way to a 4 billion year ... a very low chance but within the margin of error.
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Frozen 2 appears to have held pretty well for the Thanksgiving/Black Friday duo. It's expected to be between 280-290m after the 5-day holiday weekend. Peeking ahead, looking at a few key national theaters that already have Frozen 2 listings for the December 6-8 weekend, there seem to be a fair number of sold seats or at least more than average for the case. That on it's own means little, but advance tickets for a movie on it's 3rd weekend can be an indicator of a re-watch cycle. The original Frozen benefited greatly from re-watchers with a great spike over the week of Christmas. This one could be poised to for a similar trajectory.
Worldwide Disney is just about at 9.8 billion. Frozen 2 will be another billion dollar box office hit and with Star Wars will make 7, or 8 if you give Marvel Studios credit for Spiderman. It's a shame Artemus Fowl got moved back till next year because they could have made it to 12 billion.
Frozen 2 is on it's way to the top of the charts, so lets take a look and see what came before and compare.
While the sequel is off like a shot the original Frozen was more of a study of 'slow and steady win the race'. While it did have a a great opening weekend, it was boosted by early buzz screenings and a 5 day Thanksgiving weekend. It's real strength came in the many weeks after, claiming 10m+ weeks until early February. Frozen 2 likely won't repeat that but doesn't need to. Currently this one is about a month ahead of the original's box office; sure the sequel will likely follow the patterns of a faster drop off but it's enough ahead that it won't matter as much. However Frozen 2 might have a long tail as well. Even it's pure Fri-Sun take was only a 34% drop off from opening weekend, a feat few manage even with holiday help. It will be hard to judge what the trend will be until after the 3rd & 4th weekends.
While the sequel is off like a shot the original Frozen was more of a study of 'slow and steady win the race'. While it did have a a great opening weekend, it was boosted by early buzz screenings and a 5 day Thanksgiving weekend. It's real strength came in the many weeks after, claiming 10m+ weeks until early February. Frozen 2 likely won't repeat that but doesn't need to. Currently this one is about a month ahead of the original's box office; sure the sequel will likely follow the patterns of a faster drop off but it's enough ahead that it won't matter as much. However Frozen 2 might have a long tail as well. Even it's pure Fri-Sun take was only a 34% drop off from opening weekend, a feat few manage even with holiday help. It will be hard to judge what the trend will be until after the 3rd & 4th weekends.
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jt04
Well-Known Member
Do you have domestic numbers for 2019 pre episode 9?
Disney is at 3.2 billion domestically.
Both Toy Story 4 and The Lion King closed out their domestic release this past week, their 24th and 20th weeks respectively.
Toy Story 4 brought in 434.0m domestically, and 1073.3m world wide. Overall it did a bit under Toy Story 3 in the international markets, but made up the difference on the domestic side.
The Lion King brought in 543.6m domestically, and 1656.3m world wide. It over shot previous "live action remake" reigning champ Beauty and the Beast by a hefty margin, over 392m world wide. To put that in perspective if you took Lion King out and made it it's own studio that would've ranked #7 on our list so far.
Toy Story 4 brought in 434.0m domestically, and 1073.3m world wide. Overall it did a bit under Toy Story 3 in the international markets, but made up the difference on the domestic side.
The Lion King brought in 543.6m domestically, and 1656.3m world wide. It over shot previous "live action remake" reigning champ Beauty and the Beast by a hefty margin, over 392m world wide. To put that in perspective if you took Lion King out and made it it's own studio that would've ranked #7 on our list so far.
Frozen 2 hit it's expected post-holiday dip bringing in about 35m this past weekend. This bigger drop puts it on track after last weekends small drop. It's just a hair under 340m by Monday's domestic numbers, 45 days ahead of the original Frozen's take. Even on moderately average drops Frozen 2 should overtake the 400.7m of it's predecessor near the end of the year or very early January. With a Christmas boost that is likely to arrive sooner.
We're just over a week out from Star Wars Episode IX; there are a lot of fluctuation in predictions, lots of media push, and a tone of warming and cooling fans. From my own tracking Episode IX is selling about 8% more than IIX, not anything to really go on as pre-sales across the board is up about 3% from 2 years ago, and for 'event' movies 5-6%, so this is well within expectations.
We're just over a week out from Star Wars Episode IX; there are a lot of fluctuation in predictions, lots of media push, and a tone of warming and cooling fans. From my own tracking Episode IX is selling about 8% more than IIX, not anything to really go on as pre-sales across the board is up about 3% from 2 years ago, and for 'event' movies 5-6%, so this is well within expectations.
So Frozen 2 gets it's first blow from Jumanji: The Next Level which is expected to land in the 51m-55m range. The estimations have been a bit all over even in the last week or so; some calling for as low as 35m, Box Office Pro was pegging it at around 42m just 2 days ago thought they adjusted that number up now. I'd considered some of those low-balls considering the popularity of the previous Jumanji movie. I'd personalty expected a 57m-60m opening weekend, but it seems to be a bit short of that.
I think most of the over/underestimations on this particular movie come from the unusualness of the 2017 release; premiering on a Wednesday, opening weekend including Christmas Eve, Christmas on a Monday. There are a lot of different ways to split what it's "opening weekend" should be. If you look at just it's actual opening weekend it only made 36.1m, but it had made 52.7m up to that point, and would make 71.9m in one more day for Christmas. Then it continued to make more money on the weekdays right after Christmas than it had on it's opening weekend days! It got off to a very odd start and kept good legs under itself to the ultimate tune of 404.5m domestic.
Time will tell if this one can repeat.
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As a digression from what I normally post about ... I spent the last hour combing over the system I use to pull box office numbers/ticket sales/theater info because of the Playmobil movie and the results it was spitting out. I had ZERO IDEA that movie had tanked so hard. I was convinced that something was off with my formatting ... when a 30 second google would have told me the truth.
I think most of the over/underestimations on this particular movie come from the unusualness of the 2017 release; premiering on a Wednesday, opening weekend including Christmas Eve, Christmas on a Monday. There are a lot of different ways to split what it's "opening weekend" should be. If you look at just it's actual opening weekend it only made 36.1m, but it had made 52.7m up to that point, and would make 71.9m in one more day for Christmas. Then it continued to make more money on the weekdays right after Christmas than it had on it's opening weekend days! It got off to a very odd start and kept good legs under itself to the ultimate tune of 404.5m domestic.
Time will tell if this one can repeat.
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As a digression from what I normally post about ... I spent the last hour combing over the system I use to pull box office numbers/ticket sales/theater info because of the Playmobil movie and the results it was spitting out. I had ZERO IDEA that movie had tanked so hard. I was convinced that something was off with my formatting ... when a 30 second google would have told me the truth.
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Over the weekend Frozen 2 crossed the billion dollar mark, making it the 8th movie this year and the 6th for Disney. It's currently 34.3m short of Frozen's final domestic box office, which it's likely to reach with a holiday boost by the end of the year. There are already plans in motion for a sing along release in as early as January. On the international side it's a bit behind by a bit over 200m, and while there are some markets that Frozen 2 has yet to release in there are not many so I don't expect it close that gap there.
Okay folks we're officially in Star Wars season. So this is a quick reminder that this topic is for talking about box office only. Please be kind and take spoiler talk, opinions, or other discussions to their appropriate place. You've all been great and we've had lots of fun in this thread all year so don't blow it now.
I guess I am not really surprised how wide the range of predictions are for this. The two main ones I read the most are usually very close, but they differ in their prediction by over 30 million. That's probably the biggest difference the two sites I have ever seen have. I tend to think that with where the Holiday lands this year it will lead to a lower box office for the opening 3 days (and lead to a lot of people calling it a failure whether it is or not). We will see
It's a case of "yes and no" as far as how modern critics may be out of touch with what the general audience reacts to and how that influences the box office long term. Particularly 'event' movies are a hard thing to judge on the kinds of criteria critics tend to report on. I've often noted that an unexpectedly good or bad critical rating can boost or doom a movie, but rarely does a middle of the road critic result on a movie that was already going to be received that way have an effect.