2019 Box Office tracking

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member
We'll see. As cinematic universes become the norm they won't have as much creative license during the filming stage. The process will function more like an Imagineering project than film school.

What you are looking for will exist more on streaming services and less on big budget theatrical releases. Too risky for investors.

PS- I have no financial ties to Disney direct or otherwise. Never have received any compensation either. Not that I'm critical of those that do.
I think you’re vastly underestimating the creativity, hard work, and effort requires to make films, even blockbusters that follow a multi film road map.

To say that, with creative universes, there isn’t much news for directors and actors does a massive disservice to the works that Favreau, Gunn, Taika Waititi and co have done.

I don’t think you realize how much work goes into filmmaking, even cynical corporate cash grabs.

You simply cannot make a movie on a computer with a specific creative vision. That’s not how it works.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Because certain actors are the reasons people see these films. The actors themselves are there not just for the performance, but also to market the film.

If an actor’s salary is $15 million, and data estimates show that specific person brought in $20 million on his or name recognition and likability alone, that is a profitable endeavor that the studio will always make.



An arbitrary line in the sand with no specific reason as to why should never be implemented.



Keep the liberal bashing nonsense on the sidelines. We are talking about actors with star power. They’re outside of the living wage discussion.



Again, because they’re presumably a strong draw for marketing and giving the film additional exposure.



Not that simple.

There are only a finite number of showings in a single day, and a small window within a span of weeks where a film is widely and readily available to be shown.

With the majority of the first two weeks’ proceeds going back to the studio, and with Disney charging a ridiculously high licensing fee to show their films, there has become a line where there aren’t enough additional showings for theatres to exhibit (in a profitable manner) that would make up for the lower ticket prices.

For example, let’s say AMC lowered its base adult ticket price from $15 to $10, and tried to make up the difference by adding an early morning and late evening showing each day, both at times that are usually low traffic hours. Those additional viewings require theatres to schedule and staff employees, have concessions of all kinds ready that may it may not be sold, projectionists ready to go, utilities and power being used an additional 6 hours in the day......and then both showings are 1/4 full, creating a significant net loss for the theatre.

Theatres have the ability to foresee this based on past trends, so they know that’s likely a losing endeavor for them.

Everyone wants lower prices for everything. It’s much more complex than saying it simply will increase exposure.
Theater's have shown that lower ticket prices bring in more people and actually make more money. The reason Tuesday is the best day during the week is the $5.00 tickets. Anyway, if it were not for nepotism in the industry, actors would be paid less. It is very hard to break in if you don't know someone. That is why people like Harvey Weinstein stayed in power so long. It is also why he was able to hire a certain Presidential daughter, Hollywood politics and corruption. The entire industry needs to be investigated for corruption and sexual abuse. Even Disney and its family values are not exempt. It is one of the reasons I was opposed to allowing Disney to buy Fox. I kept saying me need more smaller studios not bigger ones. Disney now controls the box office. They have the ability to demand 60 to 65 percent of the box office receipts, they also have the ability to demand actors and actresses to work for less money. The problem is they are only doing one of those 2 and the wrong one at that.

People go to Marvel movies to see Marvel Characters not the actor playing them. The masses went to see Black Panther, 700 million dollars of tickets and it was not to see a specific actor. The story was very good. Race didn't matter either in the US like it did in Asia. I saw it 3 times. I know what I will get when I see a Marvel Movie. I know whar I will get when I see a Disney Movie. I go to see the movie, not who is in it. I really believe when Disney recasts and of their superheroes, people will still go and they will make millions, even with a new Ironman.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
I think actors are grossly overpaid. Why should any actor get paid multimillions for one movie? They should be capped at 1 million a movie.
So let me ask you a question, do you take home your entire gross yearly salary? No of course you don't, well neither do actors (and I lump actresses into the actor term who on average actually make less than their male counterparts).

After taxes, SAG fees, lawyers, managers, agents, publicists, and accountants (and a few others I probably forgot) all get their money an actor only takes home on average 25-45% of their pay.

So that 1 Million cap that you think an actor should get paid would really only end up being between $250k-450k. And while it may seem like every "Star" you see is getting bank from each movie, there are over 160k members of SAG that aren't getting close to that. Its really a small percentage of the Hollywood actors that get large scale contracts.

So do you really think that someone like Robert Downey Jr only deserves $250k for his work in Endgame, the #1 movie in the world now at $2.792B.....
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Lion King down 72% Friday to Friday.
And if you take out the massive Thursday previews (which is more comparing apples to applies...as close can be) it is only down 60%. Very similar to Aladdin's 55% drop of Friday sales to Friday sales (without Thursday previews). Given the hype for the movie, this is pretty typical to see a huge blockbuster to have a large decline on the second Friday.
 

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member
Theater's have shown that lower ticket prices bring in more people and actually make more money.

Gonna need a source on that one. Because there is no way a theatre makes more money on a Tuesday that a weekend day with a new release.

The reason Tuesday is the best day during the week is the $5.00 tickets.

They’re $5.00 because Tuesdays are historically the slowest days for theatres. This is a marketing campaign. Best, as you believe, is your personal preference. It doesn’t mean highest profits.

Anyway, if it were not for nepotism in the industry, actors would be paid less.

You clearly are using the Smith family to validate a very incorrect generalization.

It is very hard to break in if you don't know someone. That is why people like Harvey Weinstein stayed in power so long. It is also why he was able to hire a certain Presidential daughter, Hollywood politics and corruption.

Irrelevant pivot from the primary point of the conversation.

People go to Marvel movies to see Marvel Characters not the actor playing them. The masses went to see Black Panther, 700 million dollars of tickets and it was not to see a specific actor.

Absolutely, 100% incorrect. The came back for the characters and the stories because the actors were wonderfully casted and did a great job. If Iron Man bombed due to a bad lead, the franchise is dead. That includes The Avengers.

Race didn't matter either in the US like it did in Asia. I saw it 3 times. I know what I will get when I see a Marvel Movie. I know whar I will get when I see a Disney Movie. I go to see the movie, not who is in it. I really believe when Disney recasts and of their superheroes, people will still go and they will make millions, even with a new Ironman.

Your opinions of why you go see a movie are anecdotal and largely irrelevant. I’m more interested in trends.
 

Tony Perkis

Well-Known Member
And if you take out the massive Thursday previews (which is more comparing apples to applies...as close can be) it is only down 60%. Very similar to Aladdin's 55% drop of Friday sales to Friday sales (without Thursday previews). Given the hype for the movie, this is pretty typical to see a huge blockbuster to have a large decline on the second Friday.
Why would I take out Thursday night previews when every major film has Thursday night previews? That’s basically grading the film on a curve.
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Why would I take out Thursday night previews when every major film has Thursday night previews? That’s basically grading the film on a curve.
BecAsue it is comparing like to like. Lion kings drop on Friday was not as bad as you tried to make it sound. The Thursday night previews was larger than most movies but the drop on Friday was not as big but very similar to other like movies. That’s why.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
TLK projected at around $75 million for the weekend. That's a 61% drop which is quite a bit higher than the drops for Aladdin (53,2%), TS4 (50.6%), BatB (48.3%), Jungle Book (40.4%), Alice in Wonderland (46%), Cinderella (48.5%), and Maleficent (50.6%).

Granted TLK opened quite a bit bigger than the others. So the question is whether the substantially bigger drop was due to the higher opening or something else. Because it doesn't have any direct competition (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is not competition). It will be interesting to see what happens next weekend. $75 million is not a great 2nd weekend off of a $192 million OW though.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
TLK projected at around $75 million for the weekend. That's a 61% drop which is quite a bit higher than the drops for Aladdin (53,2%), TS4 (50.6%), BatB (48.3%), Jungle Book (40.4%), Alice in Wonderland (46%), Cinderella (48.5%), and Maleficent (50.6%).

Granted TLK opened quite a bit bigger than the others. So the question is whether the substantially bigger drop was due to the higher opening or something else. Because it doesn't have any direct competition (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is not competition). It will be interesting to see what happens next weekend. $75 million is not a great 2nd weekend off of a $192 million OW though.

You really can't reach too many conclusions since Disney almost always underestimates weekends.

The doomsayers also were wrong about Aladdin and TS4 after the second weekend. Second weekends are probably the worst barometer.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
So far it looks like I was wrong on my prediction Disney would reach the 2.59 billion dollar mark through Sunday. According to boxofficemojo.com they are currently at 2,587,829,271' however as JT04 said above, Disney has a habit of underestimating so it is still possible.

Now on the worldwide gross on the 6 worldwide releases for the year they have Disney at $7,164.5 billion. Adding the carryover from last years movies and the international box office from Glass and of course the Domestic results from Penguins I am confident they broke the old worldwide box office record of 7.61 billion.



 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
You really can't reach too many conclusions since Disney almost always underestimates weekends.

The doomsayers also were wrong about Aladdin and TS4 after the second weekend. Second weekends are probably the worst barometer.
Well this is true. The $75.5 million weekend would mean that it dipped 25% from Saturday (didn't realize that until I did my simple math lol). That's a steep blow but a 20% drop may be more accurate. 15% drop would reflect more of what TS4 did on its 2nd Sunday. Still, a logical adjustment based on Disney's usual low estimates MIGHT give TLK a $78 million weekend. Still not wonderful but, as we said, we'll know more with the 3rd weekend. That's when things started leveling off for Aladdin and TS4. The 4th weekend is where both TS4 and Aladdin started taking excellent low drops. And to TLK's aid, that's when some schools are getting ready to begin so the mid-week numbers will decrease, being replaced by stronger weekends relatively speaking.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Disney announced they broke the worldwide record with 7.67 billion. The question that remains is how high will they go. I start my estimate with the realistical estimate that Frozen 2 and Star Wars will do at least 2 billion by December 31. That brings the total to 9.67. Add to that 700 million from Malisifant and 500 million more from Lion King' Aladdin and Toy Story and they total 10.87. That is my minimum estimate. The question is can they get more and if so how much. Getting to 11 billion would only need 130 million more. That is very possible. As for reaching 12 billion, it is unlikely but still possible. To reach it they would need to reach 9 billion before Malisifant comes out. That is 1.33 billion more. Then Malisifant will need to do better that expected. The first one did 750 million. For the life of me I can't figure out why anyone would still be talking about 9 billion. That would be a disaster. I really expect between 11 billion and 12 billion.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
My predictions for the rest of the year:
Lion King: $580 million domestic (that is down after this weekend), $1.65 billion WW
Maleficent 2: $120 million domestic, $350 million WW
Frozen 2: $480 million domestic, $1.35 billion WW
TROS: $630 million domestic, $1.30 billion WW
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
The final weekend numbers are in. Disney underestimated the domestic box office by just over 2 million. So they still fell short of last years through July 31 number but they are ahead of last years to date number by a fraction of a percent. On the worldwide number they underestimated a total of 8.3 million. They still have a long way to go and no one knows what the final number will be but when facing reality and adding in Fox's numbers the combined box office is hundreds of millions behind last year.

Fox's slate is pathetic this year but I believe by the end of the year the combined Disney Fox domestic box office will top the combined total of 4.32 billion from 2018.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
TLK is one of those films that will do VERY well and make tons of money but when you look at it compared to what many expected and look at its drops it will probably take, it won't look THAT impressive. Sometimes there are films that do well but seem to leave $100 million or more on the table domestically due to a few things that could have been corrected. TLK will end up as one of those films. Most people on other boards predicted $650-$700 million domestically (or more). It will probably end up between $560-$580 million.
 

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom