Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So here’s how I view Superman (2025):

1) In one sense, it’s a nice palate cleanser start to the DCU. It is one of Gunn’s lower films in terms of critical acclaim, and did *well enough* I guess out of the gate. WBD and DCU lives on for now. It seems to be well received for the most part by fans,* and I think it does a great job world building and establishing some great parts of the DCU. Please, more Mr. Terrific.

2) But. In another sense, as some have pointed out, it may not eke out a profit. That may not be a problem for WBD, which is operating less like a studio and seemingly more like a money laundering operation. Superman also barely clear the domestic opening weekend numbers for Man of Steel (unadjusted for inflation, and over a decade ago). That film’s performance was also well received but WB didn’t feel like it did as well as it should, hence the “break glass in case of emergency” move to shoehorn Batman in the sequel and build out a nascent film universe.

3) I think WOM will be good enough to get repeat visitors and hold an audience. But FF is on the horizon in a few weeks and that’ll substantially eat into its legs.

*Some Snyderverse holdouts will never let it go.

Totally agree…

 

[Serpico Jones]

It’s not “a flop”…but has almost zero chance to turn a profit at the box office

I’m talking about the overseas business only.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m talking about the overseas business only.

Not sure how to rate overseas performance

They tend to watch absolute crap the like Jurassic parks and fast and the furious

 

[Disney Irish]

The point was…that was crap. And it Bebe for a minute could even reasonably claim to pass the commons sense test.

Which is how things can and should be.

In a way…it’s reassuring. Doubling down on disaster should NEVER be a possibility…and it says a lot that Disney has made that “possible” in such matters

At this point honestly why do we even care, she’s leaving and they aren’t moving forward with Rian. So this seems like a win for anyone who has been crying/yelling for both to happen.

All I’m saying is that in common Hollywood speak there are ways for both stories to be true.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

At this point honestly why do we even care, she’s leaving and they aren’t moving forward with Rian. So this seems like a win for anyone who has been crying/yelling for both to happen.

All I’m saying is that in common Hollywood speak there are ways for both stories to be true.

Let’s just assume that some don’t want Star Wars to be completely dead and Disney correcting course is an important longterm requirement for that?

That’s all.

Green lighting manboys script alone and releasing it was beyond ludicrous on about 50 levels as is…letting him ever set foot in the building Again amounts to self destruction. It’s a good thing today.

It’s Star Wars…it was NEVER just another movies franchise (as apologists claim when mistakes are made) and it has its own rules and requirements. That is the takeaway with this…stock up

 

[Disney Irish]

Let’s just assume that some don’t want Star Wars to be completely dead and Disney correcting course is an important longterm requirement for that?

That’s all.

Green lighting manboys script alone and releasing it was beyond ludicrous on about 50 levels as is…letting him ever set foot in the building Again amounts to self destruction. It’s a good thing today.

It’s Star Wars…it was NEVER just another movies franchise (as apologists claim when mistakes are made) and it has its own rules and requirements. That is the takeaway with this…stock up

So we agree? I’m not sure I understand your point here. Whether there really was a consideration for a new trilogy with him or they were just giving him the brush off doesn’t really matter at this point. It ain’t happening, so in the end who cares what one article said over the other.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So we agree? I’m not sure I understand your point here. Whether there really was a consideration for a new trilogy with him or they were just giving him the brush off doesn’t really matter at this point. It ain’t happening, so in the end who cares what one article said over the other.

We might agree a little here

But there was a lot of excuses made for a long time when it was fairly obvious when the credits rolled on that debacle.

Star Wars fans are toxic…in many ways…because they have always been invested. But they’re not stupid.

I think I went about a year of rounds with the penguin about how that movie was “just like empire strikes back” because of box office charts

It was stupid then…it’s 10x that now. Star Wars fans are not stupid…even if they go overboard.

Now back to forward. Interested to see how Supe does now with what i think is an underperforming opening…
And how marvels latest crack at the fringes goes later this month?

 

[easyrowrdw]

Its opening weekend overseas is on par with Captain America 4. Call it what you will but that’s the kind of revenue it is generating.

Domestically outshined Cap 4 by $40M over the OW

'Superman' Launches New Chapter for DC With $217 Million Global Box Office Opening

"Superman" is off to a solid start at the box office with $217 million worldwide on opening weekend, in line wiht projections.

www.thewrap.com

The one disappointing aspect of the film’s weekend is its overseas performance, where the film earned $95 million from 78 markets. The lower international opening compared to the U.S. is likely attributable to the strong competition from Universal’s “Jurassic World Rebirth,” which earned $68 million overseas and $40 million domestic in its second weekend and now has a global total of $529 million.

 

[FrontierSpirit]

Just saw Superman, wasn’t a fan but loved the Dog. Way too silly. I put this in the league of Superman 3 with Richard Pryor. Not close to Superman 1/2.
Felt like a tv show.
kids were split. Both loved the dog one thiught Jurassic film was better other thought this film was better then Jurassic.

 

[BrianLo]

3 weeks ago - It sat at 772.6M and had earned 161.8 implying 1.096B
2 weeks ago it sat at 858.4M and earned 85.8M implying 1.003B
This week it sits at 910.3M and earned 51.9M implying 1.014B

946M and earned 35.7M implying 1.017B

972.7M earning 26.7 implying 1.026B

The holiday helped, it should get pass a billion in two weeks I’d say now. Big fun question will be if Jurassic is able to eventually overtake.

Well that was a good hold for Stitch!

994.3M earning 21.6 implying 1.0375B.

Obviously now a foregone conclusion this week.

 

[BrianLo]

Variety is claiming Superman had a marketing budget of $100 million. I don't believe it, but that's what they wrote. If true, you're looking at a $325-350 break even.

You are now indirectly claiming that The Little Mermaid 2023 made a lot of money. It's a very similarly budgeted and marketed production.

Let's not rip off that old bandaid. Though I like that all it takes is one external Disney film and my modelling seems to be the pessimistic one.

 

[Disney Irish]

We might agree a little here

But there was a lot of excuses made for a long time when it was fairly obvious when the credits rolled on that debacle.

Star Wars fans are toxic…in many ways…because they have always been invested. But they’re not stupid.

I think I went about a year of rounds with the penguin about how that movie was “just like empire strikes back” because of box office charts

It was stupid then…it’s 10x that now. Star Wars fans are not stupid…even if they go overboard.

So still about past arguments and grievances from the past decade with you? Time to let that go and move on, its not good to hold onto that.

And it might have been obvious to you, but it clearly wasn't obvious to everyone which is why the fandom broke into two main factions (and more later on) and became toxic. Many camps on this one, no matter what ultimately happened with Rian.

Also fans are human are they not? Humans are inherently stupid, one just needs to look at the state of the world right now and you can see this. So don't try to put the fandom into some higher state of being devoid of stupidity just because of some past grievance.

Now back to forward. Interested to see how Supe does now with what i think is an underperforming opening…
And how marvels latest crack at the fringes goes later this month?

Second weekend drops for Superman will be interesting. Is this weekend just a pop because its new or is it a starting trend for the weeks to come?

F4 will also be interesting as it will indicate where things are with the MCU. I also still disagree with your assessment that F4 are fringe, the public is familiar with these characters by now (after 3 previous movies), so whether or not they were originally is irrelevant.

 

[TP2000]

Okay, gang, I just pulled in an hour ago after a long day's drive across the scorching Desert Southwest to San Diego, with a mandatory pit stop at Caesars' Bacchanal Buffet (best buffet name ever!) and the Shell station on Tropicana. My semi-melted tires are still smoking out in the garage, so let's do weekend Box Office with the bottle of chilled Sauvignon Blanc I left in the fridge at the beach house for just this purpose back on the last day of Easter vacation! (Sometimes my planning skills even impress me!)

Elio aint got no word of mouth. No one cares. It's dying fast. And it's box office bomb status will leave a mark.

Lilo & Stitch is the box office boffo story of the year, owing to that ridiculously low $100 Million production budget. Bravo!

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

David Corenswet is terrific as Superman, the best since Christopher Reeves. He makes him such a kind, lovable and good-hearted person. Rachel Brosnahan is also pitch-perfect as Lois Lane.

He is certainly easy on the eyes, that's for sure. I do see a lot of similarities with Christopher Reeve.

I can only imagine the knife-edged jawline young Mr. Reeve would've had in '78 if he'd had access to all those jaw exercise contraptions the young guys use now. I wonder which one young Mr. Corenswet is using? Whatever it is, it's working!

 

[TP2000]

Superman going to have to do a lot of heavy lifting domestically to get it profitable just from box office alone

At $225 Million for production, and another $100 Million for marketing, it would require roughly the following global box office to break even ;

TP2000 Imperial System (assuming, for now, a perfectly even domestic/foreign box office split of $650 Million globally):

Superman: $225 Production, $100 Marketing, $195 Domestic, $130 Foreign = $0 Profit, Break Even

Ahhh… not really… people want to say movies are 3.x the budget for Disney…. Brave New World had a 180 budget… many said it’s break even was 420… but the all Disney movies fail crowd said it needed more… granted those figures usually come from one poster who does not even care for movies later then 70’s not named Barbie…. But some here want to quote those numbers to support their own biases

That's me.

I use the assumption that a major global movie gets 60% of its box office take from domestic theaters, and 40% of its box office take from overseas theaters. Add that to the reporting from reputable industry sources (Variety, The Hollywood Reporter, Los Angeles Times, etc.) on its production budget and marketing budget, and you get the break even point and any profit or loss. It's mathy, but it's not rocket science.

There's also the Metric System which is a less nuanced formula, and pulls forward many potential future earnings from streaming or Disney+ subscriptions gained or retained by dividing the final number by two. Simply 2.5X the production budget in total global box office, divided by two, to break even. But for many Disney movies that often overperform domestically compared to overseas, it can inflate or deflate the stats relative to the actual box office reality at the time.

You can use the Metric System, if you'd like. Some of my dearest friends, online and in real life, use the Metric System!

 

[Phroobar]

Just my opinion but I had a great time at Stitch, HTTYD, JW and Superman. These were fun popcorn summer movies. I'll probably end up purchasing HTYYD and Superman for my bluray collection. F4 has me worried. It feels very MCU which might not be a good thing. I don't think it is one I'll purchase but I will see it in the theater.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

You are now indirectly claiming that The Little Mermaid 2023 made a lot of money. It's a very similarly budgeted and marketed production.

Let's not rip off that old bandaid. Though I like that all it takes is one external Disney film and my modelling seems to be the pessimistic one.

Before or after the UK gave them $65 million in reimbursements?

 

[AdventureHasAName]

I'm going to ask a Superman spoilers question because it's been bothering me for several days and I'm not sure where else to ask it ...

SPOILERS

Spoiler: Superman Question

How the hell did Lex Luthor think that "drowning" Superman by filling his lungs with nanobytes so he couldn't breathe was going to kill Superman ... when Superman routinely flies into outer space and clearly does not require breathing or oxygen (at least for extensive periods of time, if at all)?

 

[TP2000]

I'm going to ask a Superman spoilers question because it's been bothering me for several days and I'm not sure where else to ask it ...

SPOILERS

Spoiler: Superman Question

How the hell did Lex Luthor think that "drowning" Superman by filling his lungs with nanobytes so he couldn't breathe was going to kill Superman ... when Superman routinely flies into outer space and clearly does not require breathing or oxygen (at least for extensive periods of time, if at all)?

Interesting.

I would file that conundrum along with others from the 1978 Superman, which was a classic tale of American immigration.

I remember being eternally bugged by the concept of Lex Luthor making California fall into the sea by setting off an atomic bomb on the San Andreas Fault. Nevermind the terribly clever new place names he gave to his desert, suddenly coastal, properties like "Marina Del Lex". I could not for the life of me think how 500 miles of coastline would simply fall into the sea and disappear. The San Andreas is a Strike-Slip Fault for Godsakes, it's not even close to a Reverse Thrust Fault!

Anyone who watched PBS West Coast stations in the 1970's knew the San Andreas was a Strike-Slip Fault.

 

[Disney Irish]

Before or after the UK gave them $65 million in reimbursements?

And what are the tax rebates for Ohio and Georgia where Superman was filmed? I'll answer that for you, approximately 30% respectively for each. So that is potentially a ~60% tax rebate for a movie like Superman.

Tax rebates are 100% part of the industry no matter the filming locations used around the world, and is not the talking point that some of you all think it is.