Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Rachel Brosnahan nailed it as Louis Lane. She is pretty, smart and willing to stand toe to toe with Superman and Lex. Great casting for all the principles.

And was the audience proxy for how ridiculous Guy Gardner looks.

 

[Willmark]

I wasn’t able to get to SM, but Mrs Willmark and Willmark Jr did and they enjoyed it very much.

Plan currently is we are going to see FF first then go back with them to see SM.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Either. You are using a 1.45X breakeven. You are making quite a number of films that we all have agreed weren’t profitable in the last three years profitable.

Like I said, I appreciate the counter point and disagree. But you’ll have to take it up with peers who staunchly want to double that.

You know that eventually these companies post writedowns on the movies…after the dust settles. They are public and there are advantages to that as well…

So they’re not “under the radar making money”…they’re losing.

The optimistic side of that is it’s the cost of doing business in the big game. You stay in the conscious and score in other ways…

But it’s also why they keep floating that “YUGE money is gonna come from streaming”…which some parrot so often you’d think they want a cracker?…
Because that’s an ambiguous soup that you can’t untangle from a money perspective… and you get a new narrative

“Well Snow White bombed…so we’ll just say that we’re smart anyway because people kept their Hulu to watch the bear and we can claim victory and say it was really for Snow White”

The money really ain’t there yet…but I get their strategy with that

 

[Disney Irish]

You know that eventually these companies post writedowns on the movies…after the dust settles. They are public and there are advantages to that as well…

So they’re not “under the radar making money”…they’re losing.

The optimistic side of that is it’s the cost of doing business in the big game. You stay in the conscious and score in other ways…

But it’s also why they keep floating that “YUGE money is gonna come from streaming”…which some parrot so often you’d think they want a cracker?…
Because that’s an ambiguous soup that you can’t untangle from a money perspective… and you get a new narrative

“Well Snow White bombed…so we’ll just say that we’re smart anyway because people kept their Hulu to watch the bear and we can claim victory and say it was really for Snow White”

The money really ain’t there yet…but I get their strategy with that

We'll see what happens with the recent set of movies deemed "bombs" here, such as Snow White, as we're a bit of time still away from any indication on those. But forgetting 2025 movies at the moment, of the movies that you've listed over the last few years as "bombs" which of them were actually written down by Disney? Please provide a list and the financial statement where they were shown to be written down. Because unless I missed it, and I'll happily be corrected on it, there haven't been many (if any at all) that were actually written down in the last few years. As I said I'm prepared to be corrected for that, but would need to see the proof of that not just your "word" that it happened. In fact I'll venture to guess that Snow White maybe the first in quite a long while, but again we'll have to wait and see in the upcoming quarters to see if that happens.

The point is that, as pointed out previously, the box office will continue to be less of a factor in terms of a movies earnings. And that they can and do make up for that shortfall elsewhere without having to actually write down the movie.

 

[Disney Irish]

There is nothing “past grievances” about the current state of Disneys Star Wars…they have lost…and will continue to lose billions in ancillary sales until they get some non diehards back into the room with some fist pumping in front of the screen…be that a silver one or a LED one on a wall.

The supporters of this disjointed nonsense from the KK regime have been proven wrong and will continue to be. It doesn’t matter if I say it…or you admit it…the die is cast. They best do better. Here Endeth the lesson.

We'll see professor. As time tends to favor these type of things. I have a feeling that as time goes on the ST will be looked at more favorably then it has been, similar to the PT. You can sort of already see it if you take off the disdain filled glasses.

Now back to superheroes

I actually think Superman will see the least drop off of a second week of any major release this year…but that’s just a hunch

And fantastic four is still heading for troubled waters…but again…just a hunch

Let’s see it play?

Dunno, I think Superman will have a similar drop to The Batman from a couple years ago, 50-60%. But I think it'll come under it in terms of total box office, in the $500-600ish range.

F4 I think will start strong, similar to Superman, but also have similar drops. But can't guess total box office until I see opening weekend.

 

[Disney Irish]

Rachel Brosnahan nailed it as Louis Lane. She is pretty, smart and willing to stand toe to toe with Superman and Lex. Great casting for all the principles.

Spoiler: Question on your comment here

Wait, did I miss a scene, when did Lois (correct spelling by the way ) even have a scene with Lex in this movie?

 

[Phroobar]

Spoiler: Question on your comment here

Wait, did I miss a scene, when did Lois (correct spelling by the way ) even have a scene with Lex in this movie?

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Either. You are using a 1.45X breakeven. You are making quite a number of films that we all have agreed weren’t profitable in the last three years profitable.

Only if they are getting similar opening weekend splits from the theater operators.

 

[Disney Irish]

Only if they are getting similar opening weekend splits from the theater operators.

I think you're missing the point.

I've asked a couple times now. Can you please provide where you've gotten this calculation you're insisting be used? As I think a few of us would like to verify its validity. And if it holds up to scrutiny we can certainly use it. I don't mind having a more progressive calculation be used, it certainly would make a lot of Disney movies look a lot better. And would probably provide an explanation for many here why movies can now get covered by post-theatrical better these days.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We'll see what happens with the recent set of movies deemed "bombs" here, such as Snow White, as we're a bit of time still away from any indication on those. But forgetting 2025 movies at the moment, of the movies that you've listed over the last few years as "bombs" which of them were actually written down by Disney? Please provide a list and the financial statement where they were shown to be written down. Because unless I missed it, and I'll happily be corrected on it, there haven't been many (if any at all) that were actually written down in the last few years. As I said I'm prepared to be corrected for that, but would need to see the proof of that not just your "word" that it happened. In fact I'll venture to guess that Snow White maybe the first in quite a long while, but again we'll have to wait and see in the upcoming quarters to see if that happens.

The point is that, as pointed out previously, the box office will continue to be less of a factor in terms of a movies earnings. And that they can and do make up for that shortfall elsewhere without having to actually write down the movie.

I can help you out with this…
Snow White was a bomb

The two marvel movies this year were disappointments

Stitch hit huge


There’s a very easy metric we can apply - that still applies and has for a long time…

That being the ability to generate buzz, cross-sell product, and set up more material to start that cycle again.

In one of the variety articles this weekend…it was noted that the stitch merch machine is roaring…I’m not sure where they’re getting that?…but I bet it’s true and we will hear bits of confirmation very soon.

Look at it from the ambiguity angle: even if the box office closes in 5 years and every suburban home in the world builds its own “stream theater” with a snack bar…the cycle I’m giving you will still be the same…that’s still the goal: the ability to sell in more places.

So Snow White is still a bomb under that scenario and stitch is still a hit

 

[Disney Irish]

I can help you out with this…
Snow White was a bomb

The two marvel movies this year were disappointments

Stitch hit huge


There’s a very easy metric we can apply - that still applies and has for a long time…

That being the ability to generate buzz, cross-sell product, and set up more material to start that cycle again.

In one of the variety articles this weekend…it was noted that the stitch mech machine is roaring…I’m not sure where they’re getting that?…but I bet it’s true and we will hear bits of confirmation very soon.

Look at it from the ambiguity angle: even if the box office closes in 5 years and every suburban home in the world builds its own “stream theater” with a snack bar…the cycle I’m giving you will still be the same…that’s still the goal: the ability to sell in more places.

So Snow White is still a bomb under that scenario and stitch is still a hit

"Buzz" aside, you said write down which has a financial and legal impact and requirement. So just because something doesn't generate "buzz" doesn't mean it requires a write down.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Seeing some chatter that pirates 6 may have “jack sparrow” back in the fold

Now would they recast? Or was depp knocked down enough pegs where he will have to behave for once?

Wouldn’t think anyone would try a recast there…but you never know with a company that once…on Second thought…nevermind

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

"Buzz" aside, you said write down which has a financial and legal impact and requirement. So just because something doesn't generate "buzz" doesn't mean it requires a write down.

And as we discussed waaaayyyy upthread a few months ago…the actual write down numbers for “2023: year of the uranium movies” were higher than we believed them to be at that time.

But it was definitely in late 2024 or early 2025 where it got play

There’s a reason you want to “bury” the corpse…not set it up in a lawn chair in the backyard next to the grill

 

[Disney Irish]

And as we discussed waaaayyyy upthread a few months ago…the actual write down numbers for “2023: year of the uranium movies” were higher than we believed them to be at that time.

But it was definitely in late 2024 or early 2025 where it got play

There’s a reason you want to “bury” the corpse…not set it up in a lawn chair in the backyard next to the grill

I'm not trying to bury anything. I'm also not trying to go back to 2023, but we can if you want, please provide that list of actual write downs in 2023 and the financial statements that back that up.

What I want to know though is what if any they actually wrote down in the last 18 months, because that is the time period we're in, and I don't recall any happening. But you are claiming they did. So please go back to the beginning of 2024, what movies have they actually written down from Jan 2024 to July 2025?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not trying to bury anything. I'm also not trying to go back to 2023, but we can if you want, please provide that list of actual write downs in 2023 and the financial statements that back that up.

What I want to know though is what if any they actually wrote down in the last 18 months, because that is the time period we're in, and I don't recall any happening. But you are claiming they did. So please go back to the beginning of 2024, what movies have they actually written down from Jan 2024 to July 2025?

Of you course I’m not saying you did it…it’s just your opinions anyway here and accuracy “varies”

I’ll search for it…there were some doozies

We’re talking Indiana jones, the marvels, haunted mansion…ring a bell? You think there's a paper trail that somehow D+ subs bailed them out?
It’s more likely I can build a warp drive in my garage tonight

But it would be enough to just admit that things that can’t mathematically not be flops - even with tax credits and wizardry - were flops. But it never goes that way.

And that 2024 trick was not AT all clever. It’s like amateur hour or something? 2023 would do nicely…since it was what I said

 

[Chi84]

Of you course I’m not saying you did it…it’s just your opinions anyway here and accuracy “varies”

I’ll search for it…there were some doozies

We’re talking Indiana jones, the marvels, haunted mansion…ring a bell? You think there's a paper trail that somehow D+ subs bailed them out?
It’s more likely I can build a warp drive in my garage tonight

But it would be enough to just admit that things that can’t mathematically not be flops - even with tax credits and wizardry - were flops. But it never goes that way.

And that 2024 trick was not AT all clever. It’s like amateur hour or something? 2023 would do nicely…since it was what I said

So no facts or evidence to back up what you’re saying?

I’d love to know whether there are facts to back up anything you’re saying in these threads.

Saying generally that people lie, employ wizardry, group unrelated businesses in one filing to obfuscate matters, create an ambiguous soup that can’t be untangled etc. doesn’t mean anything without support.

Unless there’s some evidence that Disney is employing substandard business practices, maybe the confusion isn’t attributable to them but rather to insufficient knowledge to understand the subject matter.

 

[Disney Irish]

Of you course I’m not saying you did it…it’s just your opinions anyway here and accuracy “varies”

I’ll search for it…there were some doozies

We’re talking Indiana jones, the marvels, haunted mansion…ring a bell? You think there's a paper trail that somehow D+ subs bailed them out?
It’s more likely I can build a warp drive in my garage tonight

But it would be enough to just admit that things that can’t mathematically not be flops - even with tax credits and wizardry - were flops. But it never goes that way.

And that 2024 trick was not AT all clever. It’s like amateur hour or something? 2023 would do nicely…since it was what I said

Actually I do think there is a paper trail that tracks subs to a particular piece of content, we just don't have access to it. Just like I do think there is a paper trail if they actually wrote something down, given the legal requirements regarding write downs, and we do actually have access to that. So I'd like to see that if you have it.

I also have no issue calling a flop a flop, if it is indeed a flop, ie it'll have lost more money than it can earn during its entire lifetime. But what you have a hard time admitting is that something that under performs during theatrical can and does end up turning a profit down the line, ie that theatrical is not the end all be all for a movies earnings, that its only part of the equation not the whole equation as you like to portray.

 

[BrianLo]

I can help you out with this…
Snow White was a bomb

The two marvel movies this year were disappointments

Stitch hit huge

As per your fear of trying to make up excuses in the back end, I just commented that its debut on streaming was sub par a few days ago. Snow is done and dusted. We’ll see the full loss in a year from Deadline, but it will be large.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

I think you're missing the point.

I've asked a couple times now. Can you please provide where you've gotten this calculation you're insisting be used?

I think the word "insisting" is doing a lot of work in your question. As far as I know, I never cited any calculation formula ... and I certainly didn't insist anyone use it. This may shock everyone, but I don't really care what anyone thinks in this thread. Feel free to use any calculation you feel like. LMAO.

But I'm not even sure what you're asking ...

Are you asking why I believe tentpole films often make far more than 50% of the gross receipts on opening week?

Or are you asking me why I believe Superman Legacy is a tentpole film?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So no facts or evidence to back up what you’re saying?

I’d love to know whether there are facts to back up anything you’re saying in these threads.

Saying generally that people lie, employ wizardry, group unrelated businesses in one filing to obfuscate matters, create an ambiguous soup that can’t be untangled etc. doesn’t mean anything without support.

Unless there’s some evidence that Disney is employing substandard business practices, maybe the confusion isn’t attributable to them but rather to insufficient knowledge to understand the subject matter.

Hold on…I’m actually finding some good articles from late 2023 on the situation of that year…and does a pretty good job of explaining the complicated system to make moves in the UK. It’s fascinating and worth a read:

The 4 Flops Of 2023 That Cost Disney $1 Billion

Disney has revealed that it spent $965 million on four of its most high-profile streaming and film flops this year.

www.forbes.com

And I’m sure that was posted prior…but we have forgotten. But I’ll keep looking for the more recent references…

Now I gotta ask…why are you jumping in and “picking a side”?

First…there are no sides here. Disney cares not for anyone’s opinion and we don’t affect their performance. We have opinions.

But math is math…still…and the obsession with trying to redefine/reassign math is getting weird.

Now i have grown tired of the contradictions…for sure…and if I just ignore it…anyone else who wonders into this minefield will be contradicted constantly as well. Plenty of evidence upthread of that ( so no “what do you mean?” Warranted)

Now…did you see Superman? What do you think about a new pirates?

There’s more than just holding court in the king of streamings self proclaimed kingdom