Lightning Lane at Walt Disney World

[SteveAZee]

What they will get is millions of dollars in added revenue.

Not sure if this math is correct, but if there are 20M guests a year and only 10% opt for Genie+, that's 2M people at $15 a pop, or $30M a year. I'm curious if they have either target revenue or target acceptance that they'll be massaging over the next few months as people move into the system.

 

[peter11435]

Not sure if this math is correct, but if there are 20M guests a year and only 10% opt for Genie+, that's 2M people at $15 a pop, or $30M a year. I'm curious if they have either target revenue or target acceptance that they'll be massaging over the next few months as people move into the system.

I expect opt in to be higher than 10%. And MK alone would account for roughly 20M a year.

…. and then think about the individual attraction purchase option.

 

[pdude81]

I expect opt in to be higher than 10%. And MK alone would account for roughly 20M a year.

…. and then think about the individual attraction purchase option.

I also assume the number would be quite a bit higher, but I think we can all agree that 30 million could be referred to as "millions"

 

[DisneyDodo]

If there are problems, I do not think Disney saying no one forced you pay for the service is going to work as an excuse.

There is an expectation that something you pay for will work. Lets see what happens...

I think Disney will be very lenient about refunds until they get all the kinks worked out. Even if they end up refunding every single G+ purchase for the first month of operation (they won’t go that far), this is a brand new revenue stream with minimal incremental costs that they will tap into for decades to come.

Would be kinda sad for the people who don’t but G+ though if a bunch of other people are cutting them in line ultimately for free.

 

[Parker in NYC]

If there are problems, I do not think Disney saying no one forced you pay for the service is going to work as an excuse.

There is an expectation that something you pay for will work. Lets see what happens...

Don’t get it twisted. People will defend it.
Plenty of people have said they paid to go to a theme park to ride ROTR only to be told that no one forced them to do it.

 

[Missing20K]

I expect opt in to be higher than 10%. And MK alone would account for roughly 20M a year.

…. and then think about the individual attraction purchase option.

I don’t think I’ll care for G+ whatsoever, but buying more DIS shares seems like a good idea.

 

[Jeff4272]

Not sure if this math is correct, but if there are 20M guests a year and only 10% opt for Genie+, that's 2M people at $15 a pop, or $30M a year. I'm curious if they have either target revenue or target acceptance that they'll be massaging over the next few months as people move into the system.

WDW averages about 60mm guests per year (MK is about 20mm of that 60mm)..........so 20% would be 12mm x $15 = $180mm in revenue and that would be just for Genie+, not including Paid LL passes

 

[Jeff4272]

Not sure if this math is correct, but if there are 20M guests a year and only 10% opt for Genie+, that's 2M people at $15 a pop, or $30M a year. I'm curious if they have either target revenue or target acceptance that they'll be massaging over the next few months as people move into the system.

The Halloween and Christmas parties are another revenue source that they have created recently.........MK averages 57k people per day..............Lets say the parties sell 25% of that average in order to keep the lines low, so about 15,000 tickets per event............There are 28 dates for the Christmas party this year alone (14 in Nov 2021 and 14 in Dec 2021) at an average cost of approximately $189 per person (range is $169 to $249)

Heres that math:

15,000 people x 28 events = 420,000 people total for Christmas party alone....multiply that by $189 (ave cost per person) and thats $80mm for the Christmas party

The halloween party is less expensive but yields about another $60mm

So WDW has taken away hours from regular day guests tickets and replaced it with these "after hours" events and they generate about $140mm in additional revenue per year

 

[Jeff4272]

The Halloween and Christmas parties are another revenue source that they have created recently.........MK averages 57k people per day..............Lets say the parties sell 25% of that average in order to keep the lines low, so about 15,000 tickets per event............There are 28 dates for the Christmas party this year alone (14 in Nov 2021 and 14 in Dec 2021) at an average cost of approximately $189 per person (range is $169 to $249)

Heres that math:

15,000 people x 28 events = 420,000 people total for Christmas party alone....multiply that by $189 (ave cost per person) and thats $80mm for the Christmas party

The halloween party is less expensive but yields about another $60mm

So WDW has taken away hours from regular day guests tickets and replaced it with these "after hours" events and they generate about $140mm in additional revenue per year

Except this year so far since nobody is buying the Christmas Party tickets.....Looks like WDW might have finally priced something too high

Not 1 Christmas party has sold out yet

 

[Disstevefan1]

Don’t get it twisted. People will defend it.
Plenty of people have said they paid to go to a theme park to ride ROTR only to be told that no one forced them to do it.

I know there will be folks who will defend Disney no matter what.

I also remember the line for Guest Services winding down main street when they cancelled one of two parades during the Christmas party to get their money they paid for the party back.

There will be folks who will demand their Genie + and/or Lightning Lane money back.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think Disney will be very lenient about refunds until they get all the kinks worked out. Even if they end up refunding every single G+ purchase for the first month of operation (they won’t go that far), this is a brand new revenue stream with minimal incremental costs that they will tap into for decades to come.

Would be kinda sad for the people who don’t but G+ though if a bunch of other people are cutting them in line ultimately for free.

Lets hope they are lenient and let's hope that the system is perhaps smart enough to credit your account for G+ and LL mishaps. I know, I know, that is far too optimistic...

 

[SteveAZee]

I expect opt in to be higher than 10%. And MK alone would account for roughly 20M a year.

…. and then think about the individual attraction purchase option.

Yes, I was sort of looking for a baseline revenue.

 

[mikejs78]

I know there will be folks who will defend Disney no matter what.

I also remember the line for Guest Services winding down main street when they cancelled one of two parades during the Christmas party to get their money they paid for the party back.

There will be folks who will demand their Genie + and/or Lightning Lane money back.

I see it more on the individual attraction selections than Genie+. Genie+ will never guarantee any attraction - much like MaxPass at DL. That's a very different thing than if you buy RotR but then you can't ride it because it's down. Disney probably has provisions to automatically offer you a different time or refund in that case...

 

[SteveAZee]

WDW averages about 60mm guests per year (MK is about 20mm of that 60mm)..........so 20% would be 12mm x $15 = $180mm in revenue and that would be just for Genie+, not including Paid LL passes

I'm not clear about 'gate clicks' vs people visiting overall. I would think that if there are 20M people going to MK, then there are 20M people setting foot on property to enter a park (since most people who visit stop at MK at least once on average). With park hopping, it seems like one person could count for two clicks on a given day. I was just looking for a guess at minimum revenue from this thing.

 

[DisneyDodo]

Lets hope they are lenient and let's hope that the system is perhaps smart enough to credit your account for G+ and LL mishaps. I know, I know, that is far too optimistic...

IAS is simpler because you paid for a specific ride — if it goes down, you get your money back. With G+, there are infinite outcomes - what if you buy G+ and then the app goes down for 2 hours during the day? Do you get your full $15 back? 2 free any-time any-ride LLs?

 

[SteveAZee]

I see it more on the individual attraction selections than Genie+. Genie+ will never guarantee any attraction - much like MaxPass at DL. That's a very different thing than if you buy RotR but then you can't ride it because it's down. Disney probably has provisions to automatically offer you a different time or refund in that case...

Yes, that's possible... more revenue from IAS than Genie+ for those wanting to hit the headliners.

 

[ThistleMae]

So what benefit do I have for staying on property at this point? Seriously. Is there even a single benefit to staying on property? Aren't you still able to book your dining 60 days out even if you stay off property? What does staying on property give you with Genie+ or IAS? Do people staying on property get the book these things sooner than anyone else off property? I'm seriously considering canceling this trip and booking a hotel off property and saving $1,500.

I think there is only one thing that makes staying onsite worthwhile and that is being in the bubble. The other small token, and it is very small, moderate/value onsite have EMH 1/2 hour before park opening. I just love being onsite and I have a modest budget. I always stay at value resorts because I love the way it makes me feel. There will be those that don't measure value by $ alone.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Out of curiosity what's the guess on what the surge pricing is going to max out at? I'm talking Christmas/New Years for something like Splash, EE, Soarin. You think we'll see $25pp?

Also, what happens if you pay, and a significant part of the ride (Animatronics, Sound, or Ride Vehicles) malfunctions. Assuming this is purchased on an "as-is" basis.

 

[G00fyDad]

I think there is only one thing that makes staying onsite worthwhile and that is being in the bubble. The other small token, and it is very small, moderate/value onsite have EMH 1/2 hour before park opening. I just love being onsite and I have a modest budget. I always stay at value resorts because I love the way it makes me feel. There will be those that don't measure value by $ alone.

I know what you feel like. We only stay at values as well. We don't spend much time at the resort anyway. But that half hour in the mornings is not going to be beneficial for us. It won't be beneficial for anybody. I don't care what people say it can sometimes take 30 minutes just to get through the gate and get in the park. The only way this could possibly be worthwhile is if they let people into the parking lot an hour or more before the park opens and then allow people staying on property to scan through the turnstiles almost an hour early and then stand at a rope until that 30 minute mark. Even still, it's just not worth it for us. I'm in a holding pattern for right now waiting to see how everybody handles this coming November with the new Genie system and everything else before I pull the trigger and cancel our trip to rebook off site.

 

[G00fyDad]

Not sure if this math is correct, but if there are 20M guests a year and only 10% opt for Genie+, that's 2M people at $15 a pop, or $30M a year. I'm curious if they have either target revenue or target acceptance that they'll be massaging over the next few months as people move into the system.

Eww.