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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Just like Israel's and UK's Delta waves, right?
aliceismad
Well-Known Member
MayoClinic has forecasts for the states, but they are limited to a 14-day outlook, I believe. There should be a toggle switch if you scroll through the article where you can "turn on" the forecast.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) - Symptoms and causes
www.mayoclinic.org
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I believe this is the most recent projection:
Go back a few pages someone actually posted one that projects a peak this week. Who knows if that’s accurate.
TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
I didn’t know asking a question would invalidate everything I said in the future.
Is there a reason your can’t wear a mask on a train? Or you just don’t want to?
Gringrinngghost
Well-Known Member
That's debatable and an absolute inverse when outdoors. Right now with the heat is getting more and more people indoors in cooler environments with lower humidity values is the perfect mixture to spread the virus.
Dreday3, I will share here with you a comment I made on reddit about this very such thing from May of 2020 so a brief warning, I have not seen any new papers, so there is a likely chance that the numbers can be off and or are incorrect. I have also amended this as well to replace the context of which it was posted, where I was rebutting someone from Scripps Institution of Oceanography.
Beyond coastal areas and into to generally breezy areas such as valleys, Katabatic winds (downslope) are usually warm dry air whereas onshore breezes are also warm but have a higher absolute humidity. However, if we were to look at the geographic nature of California, the Santa Ana winds (which are Katabatic winds) as long as they are over 9.2mph (15 km/h) and opposing the direction of the ocean, then the onshore breeze is not likely to develop and you would then have an offshore wind with lower humidity.
Onshore winds is that it does increase the landmass' humidity (areas like Central Florida see this as they are a natural convergence zone when the breezes of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico meet which causes a sea breeze front that triggers the thunderstorms and rain daily). There is so far to my knowledge a hand full of studies that have been done that looks at the relationship of Weather and COVID-19.
The first one based out of Boston, MA that looks at the relationship of COVID-19 and absolute humidity. While preliminary, they have concluded "that changes in weather alone (i.e., increase of temperature and humidity as spring and summer months arrive in the North Hemisphere) will not necessarily lead to declines in case counts without the implementation of extensive public health interventions." Basically, that they can't rule out anything proper as they found no significant difference in transmission rates between cold and dry areas vs that of tropical ones.
The Second one is based out of China and was posted the day after also looks at the meteorological conditions and prediction of epidemic trends of COVID-19. The study found that " the suitable temperature range for 2019-nCoV survival is (13- 24 °C), among which 19°C lasting about 60 days is conducive to the spread between the vector and humans; the humidity range is 50%-80%, of which about 75% humidity is conducive to the survival of the coronavirus; the suitable precipitation range is below 30 mm/ month." Basically in this study, the optimum temperature of 66°F (20°C) and an relative humidity of 75% and less than of 1.18in of monthly rain. This study would show that one of the most impacted areas would be in the latitudinal position of Vancouver, BC since they only average 1.37in (35mm) of rain with temperature range of 68 °F and 73 °F ( 20 °C and 23 °C ) in July, whereas an area like Jacksonville, Florida would be most impacted in December/January .
A third one, which is also based out of China, also looks at High Temperature and High Humidity Reduce the Transmission of COVID-19. The paper found that "Rough observations of outbreaks of COVID-19 outside China show a noteworthy phenomenon. In the early dates of the outbreak, countries with relatively lower air temperature and lower humidity (e.g. Korea, Japan and Iran) see severe outbreaks than warmer and more humid countries (e.g. Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand) do." The study believes that an increase of just one degree Celsius and 1% relative humidity increase substantially lower the virus’ transmission, and that's based off models that look at the influenza and how it spreads yearly as they have found that the flu surges in the winter based off of two major reasons. The first is that the flu is more stable in cold, dry environments with lesser sunlight. Second, people spend more time together indoors, which facilitates viral spread.
--- Updated Amendment ---
Since the time of that publishing, its become more concise that "warmer temperatures (above 20° Celsius), increased humidity, and higher levels of UV radiation were moderately associated with a lower reproductive number" So While it may seem that Florida is in the worst of it now, wait until the winter months when you have the lower temperatures, decrease humidity and lower levels of UV light. It's going to be the perfect storm, that is if there is a new mutation out there, and a sharp decline in natural immunity. As I pointed out above, with the metrics from Yale, Jacksonville would be the prime spot come December/January based off climate characteristics.
Only time well tell and people for the love of get, get your jab.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Not until early 2022 when it's safe as the virus would be slow down by then as mask mandate expires in January 18th 2022.
That's five more months for mask mandate for trains, planes and buses until January 2022.
Here's the UK Delta Wave...
You stated you don't want to wear a mask, posting numerous times of being fearful so you may be waiting a while for mask mandated to go away.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
The number of cases don’t change the efficacy of the vaccine. The sheer number of breakthrough cases may increase but they remain a small number of cases. That isn’t just coincidence.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
January 2022 is mask mandate will go away as virus will be slow down by then. February 2022 is perfect to return trip to NYC when it's safe than this year.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
No one knows when it’ll be safe. There’s nothing magical at this point that will make February any safer then January.
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DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
The virus may slow down as the cases will go low enough before February (the wave will go down from September to December/January)
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
I hope that happens for you
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Thanks. Also by February 2022 when I will visit NYC with no more mask mandate anymore. The virus will be UNDER control by then.
Travel mask mandate to be extended into January for planes, trains, buses as COVID cases rise
Travelers on airplanes, trains, buses and in airports and train stations should be prepared to continue to wear masks for holiday travel.
www.usatoday.com
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matt9112
Well-Known Member
Than why are cases up in places with overwelmingly vaxed populations? Like Massachusetts for example.
Bob Harlem
Well-Known Member
Yes, this University of Florida Biostatistics study has some https://epi.ufl.edu/media/epiufledu/covid19-models/Delta_Report___Aug_14__2021c.pdf
Timmay
Well-Known Member
I’ll take mine in non sequential 20’s, please.
matt9112
Well-Known Member
Or you could just let people make there own oersonal decisions about there bodies and stop penalizing them for it. They know the risks. (Or should) ps you sound like alot of fun at parties.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
I really don't like talking about vloggers but if anyone has been paying attention to what's going on with Michael Kay, it's pretty cringe.
He went on the Disney cruise last week, filming and showing himself taking the test at the port saying that everyone had to do it (that's only required for those not vaccinated). People began calling him out and questioning if he was not vaccinated and he's been deleting comments along with the first 8 minutes of the video initially uploaded showing the testing.
Even worse, while Disney had no inside masks for those vaccinated, he had filmed and posted many videos being maskless indoors. Really frustrating someone with a decent following like that would be spreading misinformation about the cruise process, and then try to cover and hide the fact that he was blatantly ignoring Disney's rules in other areas. I truly hate the honor system while cases are as high as they are and have no desire for Disney to return to it anytime soon.
He went on the Disney cruise last week, filming and showing himself taking the test at the port saying that everyone had to do it (that's only required for those not vaccinated). People began calling him out and questioning if he was not vaccinated and he's been deleting comments along with the first 8 minutes of the video initially uploaded showing the testing.
Even worse, while Disney had no inside masks for those vaccinated, he had filmed and posted many videos being maskless indoors. Really frustrating someone with a decent following like that would be spreading misinformation about the cruise process, and then try to cover and hide the fact that he was blatantly ignoring Disney's rules in other areas. I truly hate the honor system while cases are as high as they are and have no desire for Disney to return to it anytime soon.
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