According to CDC Covid-19 data tracker, the US has now crossed over 200 million doses administered and over 80 million fully vaccinated -
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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You nailed me there, havoc315. You saw quickly not only my mask comment, but also my fascism comment. This is why I nominate you to be in charge of all Americans decision making... You see all the things no one else can see. Brilliant!
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
An interesting observation is that based on the hesitancy map somebody posted the other day, New Hampshire had a lot more hesitancy than Vermont but according to this tracker, New Hampshire has vaccinated 12% more of the population with at least one dose than Vermont (NH at 57.5%). Hopefully things like this indicate that the hesitancy polls don't play out in reality.
Correct -- We should see very significant decline.
But here is what is getting lost: The difference between case REDUCTION vs herd immunity (ERADICATION).
There seems to be an attitude that they are the same thing.... that if we can get cases down significantly, where we have ongoing 10,000-20,000 cases per day, "that's good enough." There seems to be a wide belief that eradication just won't be possible, so let's not try.
Israel is a demonstration of what happens if you don't stop at the 5 yard line. If you actually do the hard work of those extra 5 yards.... You actually have the potential to virtually eradicate the disease. Israel is nearly at the point where they have zero community spread -- just a handful of cases from international travel.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I thought I had read it in trial info too. The article did confirm it when I finally went back to read.
Off.Got it. So maskless Christmas party [ON] off ?
Chi84
Premium Member
I suppose it depends on when Disney starts celebrating Christmas. I don't think anyone will be wearing masks outside in October - inside, they may still want people to wear them. At that point, everyone who wants a vaccine will have had one, so my best guess is they may be recommended but not required.Got it. So maskless Christmas party [ON] off ?
Dranth
Well-Known Member
True but let's be honest, a large chunk of the US population has done little research into the people, discussions, papers, books, articles etc. published/written by the very people who put it all together. The "I can do what I want cause freedom" is a more modern take and not altogether accurate to the original vision.
Not saying you are doing this at all but just in general it's something that has really come to the forefront during the last year. Maybe I'm way off and it is just a vocal minority but it really seems like that group just gets larger as time goes. The loss of nuance just makes me kind of sad.
People follow whatever cult they subscribe to, especially in the modern age where every voice has an immediate platform via social media. The loudest cults are usually the... loudest. There's really no way around it. Oh, and there's money to be made...
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DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
If eradication requires mitigation past where everybody who wants to be vaccinated has been or requires mandatory vaccination then it's not going to happen. Very few States will have mandated mitigation past that point. Possibly some will keep the mask mandates to make sure you know who is in charge.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Because Britain and Israel are know as oppressive regimes with no personal freedoms? C'mon.
You keep asking, when a return to normal. That's not any of the medical experts calls. None of them can answer that. They can tell you what the impact of doing XYZ is to current spread and impacts. That's not a "when" though. The "when" is a policy decision. A policy that's dependent on defining a level of impact that we can consider "normal". The best the experts an do is estimate (guess) at when we'll get to to that normal target, assuming actions we're taking today stay consistent. They can add in predictions with changing actions, but they'll just get less and less accurate estimates. Because they're all just guessing, and nobody is defining what level of impact is normal, you'll never get a hard answer. If you did, it would be wrong anyway.
Before you can define the "when" you have to define the goal.
I get it just fine. I don't know the "when", but I've shared (and others have) what they think the target should be. After that, it's just watching the data to see how we're moving towards the target or not. We'll get there when we get there. Generally speaking, we're moving in the correct direction.
For some, their targets look like they'll take all of 2020. For others, we're there already, it's over, target reached. Most are in between.
If you cannot say what done means you, nobody can tell you when we'll get there.
The tone coming through is that you want to be done NOW. So, either the current levels are fine with you, or you've got a problem that your when and your target aren't in agreement.
To be clear, this is mostly new information about the actions we've taken and how the impacts of those actions is playing out. Vaccinate a record number of people, we'll get lower faster, arrive at a low target faster. Throw a raging club party over spring break with no mitigations, we'll create more spread, take longer to get to a lower target. Figure out how to use an extra dose from an existing vial, faster. Halt distribution of a vaccine, slower.
With so many moving parts, there's no way for an estimate today based on "things continue as-is" to ever be right. Assuming we've all even agreed on the target.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It’s not really totally up to the experts either. It’s up to politicians and business owners (or management in the case of large public companies like Disney). Both politicians and business owners take public health expert’s opinions into consideration but most are swayed more by public opinion than medical experts. We have a lot of say in how long mitigations stick around. We as in the collective population, not we as in each individual. So while some people have felt all along that mitigations were unnecessary or overreaches, the majority of Americans supported them and so they were an easy call for politicians and business owners. As majority opinion changes we will see those leaders change too. So even if Fauci or the CDC are saying don’t have WDW open without masks or distancing its up to state and local government (not going to restrict them) and Disney management who aren’t as likely to hold on to restrictions opposed by the majority of their customers.
The best mitigation is a vaccine passport. Do anything you want, as long as you’re vaccinated. If you’re not vaccinated, stay away from gathering places.
But as Dr. Gottlieb implied, we aren’t willing to do that as a society.
Alternatively, have a lockdown for 4 weeks. But our society isn’t willing to do that either.
So, our societal impatience might lead to Covid sticking around, when quite reasonable actions would have eradicated it.
Anyone who still expects reasonable actions from the alarmingly irrational should send me what they're having.
willtravel
Well-Known Member
Coffee or Tea brewed with unicorn tears. It'll let you believe all kinds of wonderful things. Don't over brew, to bitter and you'll only belive the bad things.
willtravel
Well-Known Member
This will never be eradicated. It will always be here in some form. JMO
SEMANTICS. The rest of us knew what havoc315 meant.
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