Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

On. I’m hoping for maskless July 4th fireworks as the overly optimistic date and maskless Oct 1 50th anniversary as the middle ground.

I'll just settle for outdoor maskless. Indoors or in line I'll suffer through

 

[havoc315]

Israel’s drop was while people were getting vaccinated not 4-6 weeks after everyone who wants a shot has gone. We were talking about keeping covid mitigations after everyone is vaccinated, not removing them now.

?? I don't understand your statement. Almost nobody is getting vaccinated in Israel on a daily basis now, they are doing very few daily injections. But despite very few additional people getting vaccinated, the numbers are STILL dropping. In fact, most of the drop occurred AFTER everyone who wanted a shot got one. And they kept the mitigation in place through passports.

Numbers from Israel:
In the last 2 weeks, vaccinations: (per Bloomberg, different sources give slightly different numbers): Vaccinations have gone from 55.6% of the population to 56.9% -- So only 1.3% of the population has been vaccinated in the last 2 weeks. But cases have fallen from 332 average to 174 average in those 2 weeks. So an additional 1.3% of the population vaccinated.. and a 48% reduction in Covid cases.

[Israel hit the coverage level of 50% on March 10, 2021 -- Since March 10th, their cases have fallen by 94%. So they continued to have extremely steep drop AFTER the 50% coverage mark]

Keeping what Covid mitigation? Removing them now?? They have already been removed! We have almost no Covid mitigation right now, compared to most first world nations.
Proper mitigation + adequate vaccines for around another 6 weeks, eradicates Covid.
We aren't doing sufficient mitigation, and remains to be seen whether we will do adequate vaccination.

If we are doing sufficient mitigation and sufficient vaccination, then the proof will be in the pudding -- cases will be down to under 5,000 per day in 6-8 weeks. (potentially WELL UNDER 5,000) If we don't get cases down that low in 6-8 weeks, then it means we didn't do sufficient vaccination and sufficient mitigation.

This isn't really a matter of opinion. It's simply a matter of where the numbers go.

 

[DisneyCane]

How come they use a different size? Genuinely curious.

Also what I've been wondering, are both doses identical? Or are they physically different in some way?

They ran out of the smaller diameter needles. The doses are identical as far as I know.

 

[DisneyCane]

Mask wearing and social distancing is not hard to do and is far from significant.

Social distancing is hard to do and significant if you operate a restaurant or a business that has people seated in an auditorium or arena. Have you worked out in a mask? I had to while on vacation (well, I guess I could have skipped exercising) and doing cardio exercises felt like somebody was trying to smother me with a T-shirt. I got through it but it was far from pleasant. After 4/22 when I'm two weeks past shot #2, I will never do that again, mandate or not.

 

[dreday3]

I'll just settle for outdoor maskless. Indoors or in line I'll suffer through

100%. If we can be outside in the parks/hotel grounds maskless in October, I'll be thrilled to only wear them indoors!

 

[ABQ]

It is for WDW. If we keep social distancing until cases go to near zero that means park capacity can’t expand, most shows can’t come back, fireworks and night entertainment can’t come back. In addition the vast majority of guests and CMs will be vaccinated so will continue to wear a mask when not really necessary. It’s not a huge deal for me to wear a mask into Walmart or the grocery store for a few minutes to an hour but wearing one for hours or all day in the hot sun in FL is a lot more significant.

Saw they are filling every row on Big Thunder now, assume it's the same for similar ride vehicles, Slinky Dog, RnR. One way to keep the queue lines going from unreasonable to ludicrous.

 

[Kevin_W]

They ran out of the smaller diameter needles. The doses are identical as far as I know.

I'm used to the 16-gauge needles the Red Cross uses for blood donation, so flu shot/covid shot needles seem tiny.

 

[GoofGoof]

?? I don't understand your statement. Almost nobody is getting vaccinated in Israel on a daily basis now, they are doing very few daily injections. But despite very few additional people getting vaccinated, the numbers are STILL dropping. In fact, most of the drop occurred AFTER everyone who wanted a shot got one. And they kept the mitigation in place through passports.

Numbers from Israel:
In the last 2 weeks, vaccinations: (per Bloomberg, different sources give slightly different numbers): Vaccinations have gone from 55.6% of the population to 56.9% -- So only 1.3% of the population has been vaccinated in the last 2 weeks. But cases have fallen from 332 average to 174 average in those 2 weeks. So an additional 1.3% of the population vaccinated.. and a 48% reduction in Covid cases.

Keeping what Covid mitigation? Removing them now?? They have already been removed! We have almost no Covid mitigation right now, compared to most first world nations.
Proper mitigation + adequate vaccines for around another 6 weeks, eradicates Covid.
We aren't doing sufficient mitigation, and remains to be seen whether we will do adequate vaccination.

If we are doing sufficient mitigation and sufficient vaccination, then the proof will be in the pudding -- cases will be down to under 5,000 per day in 6-8 weeks. (potentially WELL UNDER 5,000) If we don't get cases down that low in 6-8 weeks, then it means we didn't do sufficient vaccination and sufficient mitigation.

This isn't really a matter of opinion. It's simply a matter of where the numbers go.

The cases started dropping long before they hit the current percent vaccinated. Been going down for over a month

 

[zurj]

There are a lot of caveats here. IF we used the UK level of restrictions, Israel vaccine passports, and achieved the same level of vaccination (80%+ of adults in Israel, 90%+ in UK), then yes.... cases will go to near zero. Which is what you're seeing in Israel right now.

Israel's average peak was 8,295 cases.... they are now averaging 174 cases: a 98% reduction in cases.

USA peak was 255,000 cases. 98% reduction would be a mere 5,000 cases per day.

But critically --- cases are still falling in Israel. They haven't stabilized at 174 per day.

Israel's 7-day average over the last 6 weeks:

March 1: 3565
March 8: 3519
March 15: 2332
March 22: 1121
March 30: 421
April 7: 302
April 15: 174

So really, from March 8 to April 15th, Israel had a drop of 95% -- A drop of 95% in just 5 weeks! And it's still dropping! In just the last 2 weeks, it dropped 60%!!!

If the US can drop 95% in the next 5 weeks, of the current average of 72,000 cases: 3,600 cases per day.
You're the one saying we are 4-6 weeks behind Israel. If that's true -- if we follow the same trajectory as Israel: down to 3,600 per day in 5 weeks. Following the trend, potentially down to 1,000-2,000 per day in 6-8 weeks.

And that's what Dr. Gottlieb was talking about: With different societal decisions, we could eradicate Covid, within the next 2 months. Israel will likely be under 100 cases per day within the next 1-2 weeks.
If we don't reach the same level of vaccination as Israel, if we don't use a similar level of mitigation, we are unlikely to get there, unlikely to reach herd immunity.

[... and today, thus far, Israel is reporting 34 new cases of Covid. 34! On April 9th, they reported 188. That means, as of tomorrow... the 7-day average in Israel will be down to 152! Israel is well on a path to <100 cases per day by next week]

This really is a great idea! If the United States of America would just become another country across the ocean, give up the pesky American freedoms and individual liberty that allow them to make their own choices, become a totally different nation with a totally different set of laws, then America could be great at ridding themselves of this deadly virus! Americans are so annoying with their "individual freedoms" that put people like me and my loved ones at risk from this debilitating disease. They should know that true freedom isn't about being free to do what they choose, but it is freedom to do what experts choose. Otherwise, why would we even have experts? I think the rules need to be rewritten from people having God given inalienable rights, to having havoc315 given inalienable rights*. He clearly knows what is best for the collective. If you aren't willing to take place in the largest vaccine trial program in history, do you even deserve freedom?

*May include loss of personal liberty because it's safer that way

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 92 new reported deaths, along with 1 Non-Florida Resident death.

 

[GhostHost1000]

And what's the level you're willing to call normal?

Several posters have replied with numbers between 100,000 and 30,000 yearly deaths, roughly 270 to 100 daily deaths. Still a far drop from where we are today even for the larger value.

That's that answer to the question. We're back to normal when we're down to level we collectively decide is low enough. Pick number or we'll all just assume 250,000, 700 daily IS your normal. We're there. It's normal today.

you don’t get what I’m saying it’s not up to us to come up with a return to normal number it’s for the experts who can’t give us an answer which concerns me

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[havoc315]

The cases started dropping long before they hit the current percent vaccinated. Been going down for over a month

Correct. That's my point. The drop STARTED as they increased vaccination -- And then the drop CONTINUED.... to the point where the disease is eradicated. That's herd immunity in action.

 

[Jrb1979]

you don’t get what I’m saying it’s not up to us to come up with a return to normal number it’s for the experts who can’t give us an answer which concerns me

Its cause it changes daily with new information.

 

[havoc315]

This really is a great idea! If the United States of America would just become another country across the ocean, give up the pesky American freedoms and individual liberty that allow them to make their own choices, become a totally different nation with a totally different set of laws, then America could be great at ridding themselves of this deadly virus! Americans are so annoying with their "individual freedoms" that put people like me and my loved ones at risk from this debilitating disease. They should know that true freedom isn't about being free to do what they choose, but it is freedom to do what experts choose. Otherwise, why would we even have experts? I think the rules need to be rewritten from people having God given inalienable rights, to having havoc315 given inalienable rights*. He clearly knows what is best for the collective. If you aren't willing to take place in the largest vaccine trial program in history, do you even deserve freedom?

*May include loss of personal liberty because it's safer that way

Perfect example.... not being able to distinguish the true freedoms enshrined in our Constitutions and values from, "I have to wear a mask for a few weeks!?!?! That's fascism!"

 

[sullyinMT]

you don’t get what I’m saying it’s not up to us to come up with a return to normal number it’s for the experts who can’t give us an answer which concerns me

I wouldn't worry about that too much. They don't make policy, and public pressure will mount when cases have reached whatever the collective threshold is. Neither the pandemic nor current policy is going to last forever, or even close to it.

We have much to be positive about, so getting bogged down in depressing "what about this trend or that" day to day is perhaps fascinating but admittedly unhealthy.

 

[sullyinMT]

Correct. That's my point. The drop STARTED as they increased vaccination -- And then the drop CONTINUED.... to the point where the disease is eradicated. That's herd immunity in action.

Exactly. And we're at roughly the point as a percentage of population where their drop began. So, while our current status of mitigations may not allow for such a steep decline, why is there no reason to believe that the US shouldn't begin to see similar drops? In fact, the best mirror to Israel may be CA. They were still under relatively strict "lockdowns" when they started vaccinating en force, and looking at their trendline now it's pretty good.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Last I knew the doses were identical. And this should confirm that (didn't read it so let me know if I'm wrong) https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/v...-two/275-456bdc78-f476-4c25-9dac-eb26a1aaf447

I think it's a safe bet to say they are identical. The county site where my wife and I got our shots had us stand in the same line and people getting their first doses when we got our second and the tables set up for vaccinations didn't have separate stacks of needles labeled for first or second shots.

 

[DisneyCane]

Current Florida vaccine report -

View attachment 549446View attachment 549447

I probably won't run these numbers again until sometime next week but here is the breakdown of percentage of each age group that has at least one shot as well as the increase from the prior report.

Age	% Vaccinated	Increase 4/15-4/16
16-24	13.7%​	18205​
25-34	19.6%​	20918​
35-44	28.8%​	21527​
45-54	37.3%​	23465​
55-64	54.2%​	25401​
65-74	82.8%​	9028​
75-84	82.6%​	4046​
85+	69.1%​	1394​
Total	36.3%​	123984​

For 65+, 80.9% have had at least one shot so far. The percentage is really a little higher for 16-24 because my population number is 15-24.