correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Last I knew the doses were identical. And this should confirm that (didn't read it so let me know if I'm wrong) https://www.wcnc.com/article/news/v...-two/275-456bdc78-f476-4c25-9dac-eb26a1aaf447
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Mask wearing and social distancing is not hard to do and is far from significant.
Incomudro
Well-Known Member
Well rights of the individual are an important component of The Constitution.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
It is for WDW. If we keep social distancing until cases go to near zero that means park capacity can’t expand, most shows can’t come back, fireworks and night entertainment can’t come back. In addition the vast majority of guests and CMs will be vaccinated so will continue to wear a mask when not really necessary. It’s not a huge deal for me to wear a mask into Walmart or the grocery store for a few minutes to an hour but wearing one for hours or all day in the hot sun in FL is a lot more significant.
Chi84
Premium Member
And it's getting farther from significant each day as the number of people who are vaccinated increases.
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
That may be the case but IMO it should be either keep wearing masks and social distancing til cases get low or vaccine passports become the norm at places with high amounts of people. The Buffalo Bills are requiring it in the fall.
Bill in Atlanta
Well-Known Member
Anything new this week on the mask front? With the new “taking a pic” relaxation, anyone have a hint on the next step? How about a wild guess of seeing the “while stationary” removed in mid May? Reasonable?
That sounds like a natural next step. Though May is laughably soon.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Makes sense. Seems like it would only be asking for trouble if they were different.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
I feel like one rule they moved to several months after opening that no one talks about much is the no eating or drinking (open containers) in line. I'd like to be able to take a beer into lines. I was always respectful about taking a sip and putting the mask back up, but I recognize some just took that as their excuse to walk the whole line maskless.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I don't even want to imagine how that would go!
Good news is that some states that were surging have turned around (NY & NJ). Probably due to vaccinations.
The bad news is that over half the states still have very high number of cases. Florida has rising cases and rising hospitalization. And Michigan is the worst.
Until vaccinations can turn that around, there will be no end to COVID mitigation protocols. Guessing when that may be is problematic. We know when there will be enough doses for everyone who's will to get vaccinated, but we don't know how many will hold out. We don't know when children can be vaccinated. We don't know if a new variant will 'escape' the current vaccines. We don't know how effective contact tracing will be when numbers get low enough to put that in place.
So even throwing the 'vaccine hesitant' to the COVID wolves and let Darwin decide their fate doesn't give us assurance of 'returning to normal' since that population will keep alive the virus to continue to mutate.
The bad news is that over half the states still have very high number of cases. Florida has rising cases and rising hospitalization. And Michigan is the worst.
Until vaccinations can turn that around, there will be no end to COVID mitigation protocols. Guessing when that may be is problematic. We know when there will be enough doses for everyone who's will to get vaccinated, but we don't know how many will hold out. We don't know when children can be vaccinated. We don't know if a new variant will 'escape' the current vaccines. We don't know how effective contact tracing will be when numbers get low enough to put that in place.
So even throwing the 'vaccine hesitant' to the COVID wolves and let Darwin decide their fate doesn't give us assurance of 'returning to normal' since that population will keep alive the virus to continue to mutate.
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
CMs have to be done being vaccinated. Assuming all that want one get shot 1 by May 1 they will have shot 2 end of May and be fully immune by June 12. I don’t think they will consider allowing guests without masks before then but it could also be longer. That’s the earliest date.
There are a lot of caveats here. IF we used the UK level of restrictions, Israel vaccine passports, and achieved the same level of vaccination (80%+ of adults in Israel, 90%+ in UK), then yes.... cases will go to near zero. Which is what you're seeing in Israel right now.
Israel's average peak was 8,295 cases.... they are now averaging 174 cases: a 98% reduction in cases.
USA peak was 255,000 cases. 98% reduction would be a mere 5,000 cases per day.
But critically --- cases are still falling in Israel. They haven't stabilized at 174 per day.
Israel's 7-day average over the last 6 weeks:
March 1: 3565
March 8: 3519
March 15: 2332
March 22: 1121
March 30: 421
April 7: 302
April 15: 174
So really, from March 8 to April 15th, Israel had a drop of 95% -- A drop of 95% in just 5 weeks! And it's still dropping! In just the last 2 weeks, it dropped 60%!!!
If the US can drop 95% in the next 5 weeks, of the current average of 72,000 cases: 3,600 cases per day.
You're the one saying we are 4-6 weeks behind Israel. If that's true -- if we follow the same trajectory as Israel: down to 3,600 per day in 5 weeks. Following the trend, potentially down to 1,000-2,000 per day in 6-8 weeks.
And that's what Dr. Gottlieb was talking about: With different societal decisions, we could eradicate Covid, within the next 2 months. Israel will likely be under 100 cases per day within the next 1-2 weeks.
If we don't reach the same level of vaccination as Israel, if we don't use a similar level of mitigation, we are unlikely to get there, unlikely to reach herd immunity.
[... and today, thus far, Israel is reporting 34 new cases of Covid. 34! On April 9th, they reported 188. That means, as of tomorrow... the 7-day average in Israel will be down to 152! Israel is well on a path to <100 cases per day by next week]
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Again, comes back to definition of low. If we hit a level where cases are under say 10,000 per day is that low? It’s far from near zero
Bill in Atlanta
Well-Known Member
Got it. So maskless Christmas party [ON] off ?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
Depends entirely on unions I think and not just on how many are or not vaccinated. I think CMs are just as tired of telling people to mask up as people are of doing so.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Israel’s drop was while people were getting vaccinated not 4-6 weeks after everyone who wants a shot has gone. We were talking about keeping covid mitigations after everyone is vaccinated, not removing them now.
Not conspiracy... merely lagged counting of death. That's something we have seen continuously, takes an extra couple weeks to get all deaths reported. For example, I work with a major metropolitan hospital, they told me they had a breakthrough death yesterday, first they have seen. They don't actually report it to the CDC until the next weekly data collection next week.
They ARE doing great. If you were expecting 100% protection, that just wasn't realistic or consistent with the science. 74 deaths, even 200 deaths at this juncture, would be significantly BETTER than the studies even suggested. Take the win!
And several countries are on a path to eradicate it soon. Israel already has essentially eradicated it.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
On. I’m hoping for maskless July 4th fireworks as the overly optimistic date and maskless Oct 1 50th anniversary as the middle ground.Got it. So maskless Christmas party [ON] off ?
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