Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Heppenheimer]

I tried to watch that entire exchange objectively and I'm not sure I see where Paul was against science. In fact, I saw him repeatedly ask Fauci to explain what science or study has shown that someone who has recovered from Covid or has been fully vaccinated against Covid has become re-infected with the virus and why that person should be required to wear a mask? Fauci hypothesized that some new variant may still infect that person. True as that may be, one of thousand things could infect someone, but conjecture is not science.

Yes, there are no large scale studies at the present time that demonstrate convincingly that the current variants are resistant to the existing vaccines... but that's because this investigation is ongoing right now. Neither the vaccines nor the variants have been circulating at sufficient scale for long enough to make that determination as of yet, but we have at least laboratory in vitro evidence that should make us concerned enough that the vaccines may have diminished efficacy against the variants. Given all that we've gotten wrong by letting our guard down prematurely over the past year, I would think simple humility and caution should be the guiding principle until we starkly reduce the amount of circulating virus.

So yes, because the evidence for the question that Senator Paul wants answered is currently unclear and emerging, he is going against the scientific process. He's demanding an immediate answer for something that is not yet known, and he should know, as someone who was a licensed physician, that these kinds of answers don't just materialize with the snap of a finger.

Conjecture is not science, but it leads us to use the scientific process to answer the desired question. Saying we should observe caution until the process provides that answer isn't only good medicine, its good public policy. Especially after a year in which an excess of 500K American died of something that didn't exist a year and half ago.

 

[danlb_2000]

So interesting commentary about the MA School Study that is leading to the 3' vs 6' policy, on my EpiTwitter. Basically, many think it was a poor study that is being used to justify a policy change that people desperately want. The conclusion may be true, but they relied on self-reporting based on district policies, and only cases officially reported to the state (and we know schools have been caught playing games about this) and have so many caveats to their data collection that it doesn't have the confidence levels that you would want when using it to decide policy recommendations for an entire country. I took a look at the study and there are two large paragraphs of disclaimers that I don't think would pass WDWmagic's rigorous study-standards if the conclusion would have said that 6' was better.

Think about how much crap gets thrown toward the mask effectiveness studies, and other distancing studies about how well it duplicates an actual exposure situation vs a lab setup? But for this, everyone is all "study says it's safe," without actually looking at the details to see if it was a well-designed study. I don't have kids, so I don't have a dog in this race. But if we demand good studies, and good science, shouldn't we want to make sure that is what happened when the conclusion is something people want to hear?

I do find it interesting that they are basing this big a change in policy on the results of just one study.

 

[GoofGoof]

So the state of Florida has now lowered the age to 50 and over for anyone who wants the vaccine.

Reading an article in todays local paper and after just listening to the Governor's press conference it is a little concerning.

When the state opened it up to 60 just last week there was really no demand they are saying. Somewhere around 50-60% of people in the 60 age group wanted it.

Their internal numbers are showing people below 40 years old and younger, that drops all the way down to around 40% of that age group will get it.

I dont now how we get to 80% nationwide if this trends in other state.

I am thinking 60-65%% nationwide now will probably be where we end up.

States will all have different uptake. It’s possible there will be states with 80%+ and some with barely over 50% vaccinated. I doubt we get above 70-75% vaccinated nationwide. There‘s a good possibility that at some point we reach herd immunity geographically but not nation wide. If you need a minimum of 60% immune to reach herd immunity and 25% of the population can’t be vaccinated (kids) then you need to get 80% of adults vaccinated to reach 60% immune from vaccine. We will get a small bump from people who aren’t vaccinated but naturally immune but there will also be a percent of people vaccinated but it doesn’t take so not immune. If we assume those 2 groups offset each other than we need to get to 80% of adults vaccinated to reach 60% immunity. The good news is once we get 12-17 year olds approved (sometime soon) that number drops to 71% vaccinated to get to 60% of the total population. I think some states will exceed 70% vaccinated by end of May. Others may never reach that. Keep in mind that assumes 60% is enough to reach herd immunity. If it’s 90% like some “experts” like to claim then we will never get there.

If FL ends up one of the states on the lower end that’s a bad sign for WDW and a bad sign for businesses in general. Tourism will depend on the masses feeling safe traveling somewhere and it will be a tougher sell to get people to leave their home area where cases are very low and community spread is contained to go somewhere where cases are still pretty high, especially if kids aren’t vaccinated yet. The young adult, Spring Break and party crowd won’t care, but families with children are the bread and butter of tourist areas. It will hopefully be a short term issue and the places with lower vaccine uptake either catch up with natural immunity or the people realize they need to take the vaccine and go get it. It could mean a lost Summer though.

 

[Patcheslee]

I’m asking this because I really don’t know the reason and in my head it makes sense doing. Would love to know the other side from anyone.
So we are 2 months away for the most part, maybe a bit longer in some places, shorter then others in some places for the end of the school year. Now believe me, I feel for the kids that need to be back in that environment.. also feel for the parents who have been changing their lives the last year for home schooling and all the virtual stuff. Here’s the question.. why with so little time left in this year are we pushing to get the schools open for maybe a few days.. for maybe a few days for a few kids. Is a month or two of going in and out really going to help? Why not wait until August-September, the new year, when we will have so much more under control, vaccines widely administered,etc..then attack it with a good plan? I mean just this week 3 schools in PA that just opened 2 weeks ago are closed again for deep cleaning for 2 weeks with outbreaks. Please convince me why we can’t wait just a bit longer when I don’t believe 2 months of who knows what in trying to open schools won’t do much of anything but probably more confusion.

Here we are back to full in person for all grades. Anyone still on virtual is REQUIRED to attend in person for Indiana statewide testing that is in 3 weeks. I don't know how many other states require yearly testing, but it is possibly a consideration. They've had 3 weeks now of full time and alot of extra work assigned to catch other kids back up because they didn't do everything while at home.

 

[Chi84]

Your Unvaccinated Kid Is Like a Vaccinated Grandma

Parents should bet on vacations with their kids this summer.

www.theatlantic.com

I haven’t read much about kids and COVID but this is the third article in as many days that I’ve seen about lower risks and children, maybe because thoughts are turning to the next school year. Could this be why they’re treating schools differently?

 

[Mark52479]

States will all have different uptake. It’s possible there will be states with 80%+ and some with barely over 50% vaccinated. I doubt we get above 70-75% vaccinated nationwide. There‘s a good possibility that at some point we reach herd immunity geographically but not nation wide. If you need a minimum of 60% immune to reach herd immunity and 25% of the population can’t be vaccinated (kids) then you need to get 80% of adults vaccinated to reach 60% immune from vaccine. We will get a small bump from people who aren’t vaccinated but naturally immune but there will also be a percent of people vaccinated but it doesn’t take so not immune. If we assume those 2 groups offset each other than we need to get to 80% of adults vaccinated to reach 60% immunity. The good news is once we get 12-17 year olds approved (sometime soon) that number drops to 71% vaccinated to get to 60% of the total population. I think some states will exceed 70% vaccinated by end of May. Others may never reach that. Keep in mind that assumes 60% is enough to reach herd immunity. If it’s 90% like some “experts” like to claim then we will never get there.

If FL ends up one of the states on the lower end that’s a bad sign for WDW and a bad sign for businesses in general. Tourism will depend on the masses feeling safe traveling somewhere and it will be a tougher sell to get people to leave their home area where cases are very low and community spread is contained to go somewhere where cases are still pretty high, especially if kids aren’t vaccinated yet. The young adult, Spring Break and party crowd won’t care, but families with children are the bread and butter of tourist areas. It will hopefully be a short term issue and the places with lower vaccine uptake either catch up with natural immunity or the people realize they need to take the vaccine and go get it. It could mean a lost Summer though.

Correct me if I am wrong, but, I think Fauci did say couple of weeks ago 60% might do it

 

[GoofGoof]

I tried to watch that entire exchange objectively and I'm not sure I see where Paul was against science. In fact, I saw him repeatedly ask Fauci to explain what science or study has shown that someone who has recovered from Covid or has been fully vaccinated against Covid has become re-infected with the virus and why that person should be required to wear a mask? Fauci hypothesized that some new variant may still infect that person. True as that may be, one of thousand things could infect someone, but conjecture is not science.

Here‘s the thing, a leader needs to set an example. We need people to continue to wear masks and distance. Only 12% of Americans are fully vaccinated. I’ve been the biggest advocate here for relaxing Covid safety protocols once the vast majority of people are vaccinated but we aren’t there yet. We cannot change the rules today to say people who are vaccinated don’t need to wear a mask in public because there’s no good way to know who has been vaccinated and many people are not even eligible yet which would create resentment and even more potential line jumping. People now need to still wear a mask, even if they have been vaccinated. Grand standing in front of the cameras to show how proud you are to not wear that mask is just foolish. We are almost out of this pandemic, but we need to get over the finish line. Biden is vaccinated yet when he walks down a hallway to a podium to give a speech he does it with a mask on. That’s not because he could infect someone near him (very unlikely) but as a way to set an example that he’s still wearing a mask even though he’s vaccinated. People lost their minds when the CA Governor banned indoor dining with a group and then got caught having a dinner party. Leaders need to set an example if we want the masses to follow good safety measures.

 

[GimpYancIent]

As a shareholder I really really really don’t want them to cut off their leg and isolate upwards of 30% of their market.

Each MLB team has chosen their own policies for opening day, all different. The Yankee and Met policies will be weighed against the effectiveness of other teams policies after opening day. While quite the sports news flash now after a couple of games it will be walked back beginning with the proof of vaccination requirement. I do not see any actual trends in any entertainment business, sports or otherwise, for proof of vaccination in order to enter. A lot of talk, speculation, rumors, spin but nothing truly solid.

 

[Kevin_W]

I’m asking this because I really don’t know the reason and in my head it makes sense doing. Would love to know the other side from anyone.
So we are 2 months away for the most part, maybe a bit longer in some places, shorter then others in some places for the end of the school year. Now believe me, I feel for the kids that need to be back in that environment.. also feel for the parents who have been changing their lives the last year for home schooling and all the virtual stuff. Here’s the question.. why with so little time left in this year are we pushing to get the schools open for maybe a few days.. for maybe a few days for a few kids. Is a month or two of going in and out really going to help? Why not wait until August-September, the new year, when we will have so much more under control, vaccines widely administered,etc..then attack it with a good plan? I mean just this week 3 schools in PA that just opened 2 weeks ago are closed again for deep cleaning for 2 weeks with outbreaks. Please convince me why we can’t wait just a bit longer when I don’t believe 2 months of who knows what in trying to open schools won’t do much of anything but probably more confusion.

Those are definitely good points. One one side, you can easily say that "every day matters" and than even a couple weeks in school is better than none.

On the other side, you have a "we've developed a routine/system that's working pretty well, why disrupt it for just a few weeks?". That's the camp I'm in, but that's also because we were in a hybrid system that I felt was working fairly well. If you didn't think the system was working well, I could easily see advocating for even a few weeks in school

 

[GoofGoof]

Correct me if I am wrong, but, I think Fauci did say couple of weeks ago 60% might do it

I don’t know about Fauci but there was a guy who worked for the CDC who said that was the agencies target level. Many others say much higher numbers but nobody knows. We also don’t need to reach full herd immunity to see cases drop way down. It’s the end goal, but it may be cases drop, Covid restrictions are relaxed, cases continue to drop and eventually we reach full herd immunity later. We don’t need full herd immunity to see a start of a return to normal.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yes, there are no large scale studies at the present time that demonstrate convincingly that the current variants are resistant to the existing vaccines... but that's because this investigation is ongoing right now. Neither the vaccines nor the variants have been circulating at sufficient scale for long enough to make that determination as of yet, but we have at least laboratory in vitro evidence that should make us concerned enough that the vaccines may have diminished efficacy against the variants. Given all that we've gotten wrong by letting our guard down prematurely over the past year, I would think simple humility and caution should be the guiding principle until we starkly reduce the amount of circulating virus.

So yes, because the evidence for the question that Senator Paul wants answered is currently unclear and emerging, he is going against the scientific process. He's demanding an immediate answer for something that is not yet known, and he should know, as someone who was a licensed physician, that these kinds of answers don't just materialize with the snap of a finger.

Conjecture is not science, but it leads us to use the scientific process to answer the desired question. Saying we should observe caution until the process provides that answer isn't only good medicine, its good public policy. Especially after a year in which an excess of 500K American died of something that didn't exist a year and half ago.

And at a minimum people suck at self-diagnosis. How many people have claimed they already had COVID-19 in 2018? Just as policy it is easier to have a uniform rule than Swiss cheese with caveats. People talk about the headache of vaccine passports, recovered passports seems like an even bigger nightmare of an idea.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

As a shareholder I really really really don’t want them to cut off their leg and isolate upwards of 30% of their market.

Have you written your concerns to Chapek?

 

[ABQ]

Here‘s the thing, a leader needs to set an example. We need people to continue to wear masks and distance. Only 12% of Americans are fully vaccinated. I’ve been the biggest advocate here for relaxing Covid safety protocols once the vast majority of people are vaccinated but we aren’t there yet. We cannot change the rules today to say people who are vaccinated don’t need to wear a mask in public because there’s no good way to know who has been vaccinated and many people are not even eligible yet which would create resentment and even more potential line jumping. People now need to still wear a mask, even if they have been vaccinated. Grand standing in front of the cameras to show how proud you are to not wear that mask is just foolish. We are almost out of this pandemic, but we need to get over the finish line. Biden is vaccinated yet when he walks down a hallway to a podium to give a speech he does it with a mask on. That’s not because he could infect someone near him (very unlikely) but as a way to set an example that he’s still wearing a mask even though he’s vaccinated. People lost their minds when the CA Governor banned indoor dining with a group and then got caught having a dinner party. Leaders need to set an example if we want the masses to follow good safety measures.

And that's perfectly fine, I agree about setting an example. I'm not looking to argue for or against Fauci or Paul, but in this particular debate they had, Fauci did not make the point you made here and instead attempted to bolster the need for masks for vaccinated or recovered, that's an additional 29 million people, as they may become infected again, which, with that nearly 30 million having had the virus and a next to null re-infection rate, certainly seems unlikely. I agree with an earlier rebuttal that chances of vaccinated people becoming re-infected are too early to tell.
Again, not trying to argue.

 

[Piebald]

An interesting point I havent seen anyone point out is the proposed vaccination passports. Iceland recently announced they will open up borders to those including vaccinated persons and ONLY Pfizer, Moderna, JJ and AZ. So of course things could change, but if you assume most of Europe and elsewhere may follow similar guidelines they are essentially telling most of the world to off with their Sinovac and Sputnik vaccines. I think most of South America is getting Sinovac. Iceland gets a lot of tourism from China (really most of the world does, you just dont notice it since theres not much in Florida) so how do you think these proposals will go? Will they expand if further research declares the lower tier vaccines as adequate or do you create a huge divide with large socioeconomic repercussions?

 

[GimpYancIent]

With the concerns about facial recognition, magic bans being old technology and anything that requires touching surfaces (i.e. fingerprint scans) because of COVID19 I am surprised the imagineers have not turned to retina scanning. One retina scan at registration time (simply stare into a scanning device) w no physical contact w anything. Voila! To get into your room simply take your glasses off and look at the scanner, to enter a park just look at the scanner, oh yea, link a credit card to your retina scan and when paying for something simply look at the scanner. No touching, secure and specific to each individual. Just a thought.

 

[GoofGoof]

Your Unvaccinated Kid Is Like a Vaccinated Grandma

Parents should bet on vacations with their kids this summer.

www.theatlantic.com

I haven’t read much about kids and COVID but this is the third article in as many days that I’ve seen about lower risks and children, maybe because thoughts are turning to the next school year. Could this be why they’re treating schools differently?

This is how I’m viewing the Summer with my kids. I’m hoping that if enough people 12+ get the vaccine by the end of the school year we can have a mostly normal Summer since the kids under 12 are lower risk and cases overall should be way down. The one thing that does give me pause is that the article only focuses on hospitalization and death. I agree that the biggest benefit of the vaccines is that they should reduce or eliminate the surge in serious illness, but that doesn’t mean I don’t care if my kid gets ill as long as they don’t end up on a ventilator or dead. I get my kids a flu shot every year to try to avoid them getting the flu and miss school and feel generally bad not just because I’m worried they will die from the flu. I have a trip to WDW planned for August. I have no issue going if my youngest son isn’t vaccinated if the case numbers look good by then. I would not feel comfortable going if cases are still surging in FL or nationwide. If my son (or anyone vaccinated) gets sick and feels bad for a large portion of my trip that’s going to ruin the vacation and it’s not exactly a cheap trip. I think a lot of families with kids will look at the situation and decide on traveling based on that. Many will still go (many went before there was a vaccine).

 

[MaryJaneP]

I tried to watch that entire exchange objectively and I'm not sure I see where Paul was against science. In fact, I saw him repeatedly ask Fauci to explain what science or study has shown that someone who has recovered from Covid or has been fully vaccinated against Covid has become re-infected with the virus and why that person should be required to wear a mask? Fauci hypothesized that some new variant may still infect that person. True as that may be, one of thousand things could infect someone, but conjecture is not science.

What if the vaccinated person or previously symptomatic person was still shedding virus particles and could infect others nearby?

 

[danlb_2000]

Your Unvaccinated Kid Is Like a Vaccinated Grandma

Parents should bet on vacations with their kids this summer.

www.theatlantic.com

I haven’t read much about kids and COVID but this is the third article in as many days that I’ve seen about lower risks and children, maybe because thoughts are turning to the next school year. Could this be why they’re treating schools differently?

Here is the other side of this from a post I made in the vaccine thread...

There was an interesting discussion on a recent episode of the This Week in Virology podcast that looked a couple recent studies that are raising concerns that we have under-estimated the impact the virus has on children.

The first looks at how much we might be undercounting infections in children...

Estimated SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Among Persons Aged ...

This report describes trends in SARS-CoV-2 antibody

www.cdc.gov

The second talks about children suffering long-covid symptoms.

Evidence that Long COVID-19 impacts children

The ongoing coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused over one hundred million reported infections, with over 2.23 million deaths worldwide. While most cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are asymptomatic or mild, some patients report long-haul...

www.news-medical.net

The also talk about anecdotal reports of children recovering from the virus, but no longer having the stamina needed to go back to the sports that used to participate in.

 

[GoofGoof]

And that's perfectly fine, I agree about setting an example. I'm not looking to argue for or against Fauci or Paul, but in this particular debate they had, Fauci did not make the point you made here and instead attempted to bolster the need for masks for vaccinated or recovered, that's an additional 29 million people, as they may become infected again, which, with that nearly 30 million having had the virus and a next to null re-infection rate, certainly seems unlikely. I agree with an earlier rebuttal that chances of vaccinated people becoming re-infected are too early to tell.
Again, not trying to argue.

It’s no different than any of these Covid debates. Paul doesn’t want to wear a mask. It’s selfish and against the public good. Period. Instead of doing what he knows is right he’s blowing that dog whistle for the anti-mask crowd and demanding to see the “scientific proof” he needs to wear a mask. We are a few months away from having the majority vaccinated. People like him turning vaccination into a political issue are really hurting the cause. When you rail on about how people who are vaccinated aren‘t getting a benefit they should it makes some people less willing to get vaccinated.

 

[danlb_2000]

With the concerns about facial recognition, magic bans being old technology and anything that requires touching surfaces (i.e. fingerprint scans) because of COVID19 I am surprised the imagineers have not turned to retina scanning. One retina scan at registration time (simply stare into a scanning device) w no physical contact w anything. Voila! To get into your room simply take your glasses off and look at the scanner, to enter a park just look at the scanner, oh yea, link a credit card to your retina scan and when paying for something simply look at the scanner. No touching, secure and specific to each individual. Just a thought.

I never understood the concern about fingerprint scanners. You are touching so many other surfaces in the park, one finger on a scanner is hardly going to make a difference.