Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JoeCamel]

Amazing that the virus took the holiday weekend off. Not like there is any urgency or....... to get people tested and injected.......

 

[Disney Experience]

From the Fierce Pharma report:

But Slaoui rejected the U.K. approach during his CBS interview. Changing the dosing regimen without data “would not be responsible,” he said. Waiting up to three months to inject the second dose could leave people with “incomplete immunity, waning immunity, maybe even the wrong kind of immune response induced,” which may not be timely corrected by the second dose, he said.

If people wonder what "maybe even the wrong kind of immune response induced" might mean, we can look at

Antibody-dependent enhancement and SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and therapies - Nature Microbiology

Mechanisms of antibody-dependent enhancement of disease and mitigation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines and therapies are discussed.

www.nature.com

Non-neutralizing antibodies, or antibodies at sub-neutralizing levels, enhanced entry into alveolar and peritoneal macrophages, which were thought to disseminate infection and worsen disease outcome.

So lower/incomplete immunity from changing the dose/sequence/timing could lead to ADE...or it could not. Not sure trying these variances (lower dosage or no secondary shot) in mass and outside a study is wise. One can extrapolate a little from the studies such as no ADE between first and second doses, but that is not much data.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Feds consider half-doses of Moderna COVID-19 vaccine to stretch supplies, as U.K. spaces out Pfizer, AstraZeneca shots

Initial supplies of COVID-19 vaccines are obviously limited, even as drugmakers ramp up production, so governments are looking for ways to stretch their stocks. | As drugmakers ramp up COVID-19 vaccine production, governments are looking for ways to stretch their stocks before additional doses...

www.fiercepharma.com

So we are already thinking about cutting corners.. with absolutely no science based evidence that it’s ok to do this. Why do we always try and look for ways around things??
If it takes longer to get people vaccinated, then it takes longer. Vaccinate the way all the tests were done and that’s it. A study of it now to see if this still has the same effectiveness, well can’t be done, it’s to late. Keep pumping out the vaccine and let’s listen to what the science is saying with what they’ve shown already.

 

[Disney Experience]

While the U.K. is delaying second doses of AstraZeneca and Pfizer's vaccines to allow more people to get the initial shot, U.S. health officials are none too keen on the idea, The New York Times reports. “I would not be in favor of that,” NIAID director Anthony Fauci told CNN last week. Others fear the country's piecemeal approach to shot distribution would only be complicated further by the switch. “Doubling the number of doses doesn’t double your capacity to give doses," Saad Omer, a vaccine expert at Yale University, told the Times.

COVID-19 tracker: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines sharply cut hospitalizations in older adults, CDC data show

New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. | New data from the CDC show that the COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna dramatically cut hospitalizations in older adults. Europe is on track to reach herd...

www.fiercepharma.com

In the US our immediate bottleneck is getting the vaccine to the people ("The last mile"), not the quantity of vaccine material available. So stretching the number of doses does not give us a lot when we cannot inject the doses we have.

 

[DisneyCane]

So we are already thinking about cutting corners.. with absolutely no science based evidence that it’s ok to do this. Why do we always try and look for ways around things??
If it takes longer to get people vaccinated, then it takes longer. Vaccinate the way all the tests were done and that’s it. A study of it now to see if this still has the same effectiveness, well can’t be done, it’s to late. Keep pumping out the vaccine and let’s listen to what the science is saying with what they’ve shown already.

Agree 100%. This is truly a case where science should be followed. A scientific study was done and gave results. It would be asinine to use a different dosing regimen than what was shown to be effective without doing a study first. Like you said. Give the proper dosage at the proper intervals. It's better to have less people actually protected vs. just injecting more people and hoping.

 

[Disney Experience]

Concerning using half the current dose of Moderna's vaccine as they are thinking about doing:

They do have Phase 2 (Study mRNA-1273-P201) information from a few hundred subjects. That is what they are using to consider the half-dose. From Moderna's FDA briefing:

The immune response as assessed by bAb and nAb after 2 doses were comparable in the 50-µg and 100-µg dose groups, with an overall geometric mean fold rise (GMFR)>20-fold in bAB as measured by ELISA and >50-fold in nAb as measured by microneutralization assay at 28 days post-dose 2. In the 100-µg dose group, the older age cohort (≥55 years) had slightly lower bAb response when compared to the younger age cohort (18 to <55 years) at 28 days post-dose 2, but the nAb response was similar between both age groups

https://www.fda.gov/media/144434/download

I would (If I had not already been vaccinated) still prefer the full dose tested by a full Phase 3 (15000+ vaccinated) subjects.

 

[carolina_yankee]

So we are already thinking about cutting corners.. with absolutely no science based evidence that it’s ok to do this. Why do we always try and look for ways around things??
If it takes longer to get people vaccinated, then it takes longer. Vaccinate the way all the tests were done and that’s it. A study of it now to see if this still has the same effectiveness, well can’t be done, it’s to late. Keep pumping out the vaccine and let’s listen to what the science is saying with what they’ve shown already.

The problem doesn’t seem to be a lack of doses, but the lack of logistical distribution of doses. That will improve and probably quickly now that the holidays have passed. Plus, more vaccines should be coming online in the next 8-10 weeks to further ramp up supply. Just let it play out. I would need to be convinced to receive partial vaccination.

 

[Disney Experience]

The problem doesn’t seem to be a lack of doses, but the lack of logistical distribution of doses. That will improve and probably quickly now that the holidays have passed. Plus, more vaccines should be coming online in the next 8-10 weeks to further ramp up supply. Just let it play out. I would need to be convinced to receive partial vaccination.

But it is disappointing to see that, given the forewarning, the logistical distribution of doses has been so bad. I think the public exposure and admission of the problems can make it possible for better distribution.

There are always startup glitches, but these vaccines and the requirements have been known for some time. The federal govt told the states to prepare well before vaccine approval. Did they prepare well enough before approval? If they did, then the only thing we could complain about is the number of doses delivered to each state. But for now the state and local part of the distribution is not keeping up with the lower amount of doses available. I hope post covid the states and federal do a good debrief/after action report and learn from it. I hope they learn even sooner than that,

In a much older post I talked about how using state, local, and commercial for vaccine delivery was good versus having a more "command economy"-like with direction and implementation of everything from a federal level. So far the results are arguing that I might have been wrong.

I too hope that the logistics improve soon and our bottleneck goes back to how many doses are manufactured.

 

[GoofGoof]

Some sobering math on the vaccine progress and speed of vaccinations. Many estimates suggest 60-80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. For argument sake let’s assume it’s the mid-point of 70% or about 230M Americans vaccinated. Based on the 2 dose requirement that’s 460M jabs. There are roughly 180 days until June 30. If we want to finish the vaccine rollout by June 30 we would need to average over 2.5M vaccinations a day. One way to speed it up a little is if the JnJ single dose vaccine is approved and 100M people receive that, reducing the total jabs needed to 360M or 2M per day on average. Even at 2M a day that’s 40,000 vaccinations a day on average per state. If we look at FL they make up 6.4% of the US population so assuming the same percent of vaccinations that’s 128,000 vaccinations a day. Is it doable? I think so, but they need to ramp up more mass vaccination sites quickly.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Some sobering math on the vaccine progress and speed of vaccinations. Many estimates suggest 60-80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. For argument sake let’s assume it’s the mid-point of 70% or about 230M Americans vaccinated. Based on the 2 dose requirement that’s 460M jabs. There are roughly 180 days until June 30. If we want to finish the vaccine rollout by June 30 we would need to average over 2.5M vaccinations a day. One way to speed it up a little is if the JnJ single dose vaccine is approved and 100M people receive that, reducing the total jabs needed to 360M or 2M per day on average. Even at 2M a day that’s 40,000 vaccinations a day on average per state. If we look at FL they make up 6.4% of the US population so assuming the same percent of vaccinations that’s 128,000 vaccinations a day. Is it doable? I think so, but they need to ramp up more mass vaccination sites quickly.

If my time playing RTS games taught me anything, what we need to do is start building more medical universities to produce more nurses. Next, we invest points into Amazon drivers to give them the phlebotomy skill.

 

[Trentster05]

If my time playing RTS games taught me anything, what we need to do is start building more medical universities to produce more nurses. Next, we invest points into Amazon drivers to give them the phlebotomy skill.

Or some of us UberEats Drivers. It's a side job for me, but not sure I could do with delivery and injecting. I'd pass out giving it. Here is your ramen and a vaccine!

 

[techgeek]

If my time playing RTS games taught me anything, what we need to do is start building more medical universities to produce more nurses. Next, we invest points into Amazon drivers to give them the phlebotomy skill.

Too bad life isn’t Rollercoaster Tycoon... I always used to build first aid buildings right outside my top attractions. Disney could pop a vaccine tent up at the exit from Space Mountain and get our numbers heading into orbit pretty quickly.

 

[DCBaker]

Follow up on the pharmacist who deliberately ruined those 500+ doses of the Moderna vaccine -

"The 46-year-old pharmacist, whose license was granted in 1997, was "an admitted conspiracy theorist," and told investigators he believed the Moderna vaccine "was not safe for people and could harm them and change their DNA," Det. Sgt. Eric Sutherland said in the probable cause statement."

"Brandenburg gave "a full confession that he had done exactly this. His intent was to destroy the medication. He did the things that he was accused of," Ozaukee County District Attorney Adam Gerol told a judge during the Zoom video conference hearing."

"The police alleged Brandenburg tampered with the vials not only with the full knowledge they'd be rendered "effectively useless" but also knowing that anyone who received those doses would be put at greater risk.

Fifty-seven of the compromised doses had already been administered by the time they were believed to be ineffective, Aurora Health Care Medical Group President Dr. Jeff Bahr said at a virtual press conference Thursday. The recipients of those doses were notified, Bahr said, and at the time, he said the remaining spoiled doses were then discarded.

Gerol, however, said the initial reports on the status of the vaccine vials weren't accurate.

The DA said he was informed today that the vaccine doses that had been left out weren't discarded but were sequestered by the hospital.

Investigators are waiting on tests to determine if they were damaged in a way that rendered them unusable. The charges against Brandenburg could change depending on the status of the vials, according to Gerol.

"The value of the drugs was somewhere between $8,00 and $12,000, but that, unfortunately all depends on whether they were in fact damaged or destroyed," Gerol said. "If they were not, despite the defendant's intent, there is no reckless endangering safety."

"You possibly have a crime in Wisconsin known as an attempted criminal damage to property," Gerol explained. "That would be a misdemeanor."

Faced with that still-open technical question, the judge ordered the suspect to be released on a $10,000 signature bond. Brandenburg, who was fired from the hospital after his arrest, was ordered to surrender his firearms and was barred from serving as a pharmacist."

Pharmacist sabotaged vaccines because he thought they were 'unsafe,' police say

The pharmacist who allegedly tampered with Moderna vaccines believed they were unsafe and harmed patients, a newly released court document revealed.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Disney Experience]

Follow up on the pharmacist who deliberately ruined those 500+ doses of the Moderna vaccine -

"The 46-year-old pharmacist, whose license was granted in 1997, was "an admitted conspiracy theorist," and told investigators he believed the Moderna vaccine "was not safe for people and could harm them and change their DNA," Det. Sgt. Eric Sutherland said in the probable cause statement."

"Brandenburg gave "a full confession that he had done exactly this. His intent was to destroy the medication. He did the things that he was accused of," Ozaukee County District Attorney Adam Gerol told a judge during the Zoom video conference hearing."

"The police alleged Brandenburg tampered with the vials not only with the full knowledge they'd be rendered "effectively useless" but also knowing that anyone who received those doses would be put at greater risk."

Pharmacist sabotaged vaccines because he thought they were 'unsafe,' police say

The pharmacist who allegedly tampered with Moderna vaccines believed they were unsafe and harmed patients, a newly released court document revealed.

abcnews.go.com

The hospital is working with Moderna to see if all or any of the doses are salvageable. If they are all salvageable then he will only be charged with a misdemeanor.

Pharmacist accused of spoiling hundreds of COVID-19 vaccine doses released from police custody

The fired Wisconsin pharmacist suspected of intentionally spoiling more than 500 doses of the COVID-19 vaccine was released from custody Monday, while prosecutors determine if the charges being considered against him are legitimate.

www.wftv.com

 

[GoofGoof]

The hospital is working with Moderna to see if all or any of the doses are salvageable. If they are all salvageable then he will only be charged with a misdemeanor.

They should at least lock him up until we reach herd immunity

 

[DCBaker]

 

[The Mom]

Please stay on topic, people.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Some sobering math on the vaccine progress and speed of vaccinations. Many estimates suggest 60-80% of the population needs to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity. For argument sake let’s assume it’s the mid-point of 70% or about 230M Americans vaccinated. Based on the 2 dose requirement that’s 460M jabs. There are roughly 180 days until June 30. If we want to finish the vaccine rollout by June 30 we would need to average over 2.5M vaccinations a day. One way to speed it up a little is if the JnJ single dose vaccine is approved and 100M people receive that, reducing the total jabs needed to 360M or 2M per day on average. Even at 2M a day that’s 40,000 vaccinations a day on average per state. If we look at FL they make up 6.4% of the US population so assuming the same percent of vaccinations that’s 128,000 vaccinations a day. Is it doable? I think so, but they need to ramp up more mass vaccination sites quickly.

I think its safe to say with the current speed, IF it stays this way, we won't see normality until early fall, and that's IF there isn't a huge spike this summer, which is very likely because people won't be locked up for another summer. Before rollout began and with the initial estimates it was looking like a "normal" summer, but I just dont see it happening.

Disclaimer:Certain posters may say I enjoy being negative, but NO, I DONT. I have been following this thing since it first emerged in wuhan and so far I, and others, have been right about a lot of patterns that the virus has set (not about WDW closing obviously, but that's a choice that still surprises many) .

 

[oceanbreeze77]

The explosion of hospitalizations should be so incredibly alarming for everyone. I just don't understand the conspiracy theorists who say its fake. Where is the empathy?

 

[Phil12]

The explosion of hospitalizations should be so incredibly alarming for everyone. I just don't understand the conspiracy theorists who say its fake. Where is the empathy?

The Trump cult members still think it's a hoax.