Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[baymenxpac]

For the record. I didn’t say any of that. The poster I was responding to said Sweden had developed herd immunity, which it hasn’t because cases are on the rise again.

That was all I was dispelling.

i hear ya, and i don't think those case numbers necessarily dispel that, since PCR testing is great at surveillance and not ideal for clinical diagnosis. the low level of severe and dire outcomes seem to imply, at the very least, an effective immune response by the population at large. but we can geek out about that between ourselves. sorry if it came off like i was busting your chops specifically, bri.

You have a sense of humor.

thanks! my mom says i'm handsome, too!

 

[DisneyCane]

I don’t know what you consider a significant percentage and maybe that’s the disconnect. There are people traveling, there are people flying, there are people going to WDW, but nothing close to where they need to be to turn a meaningful profit. I think where the disconnect comes from is you are looking at things anecdotally. You see people around doing stuff and based on that you assume things are back to normal. That’s far from true in most places. If it wasn’t we wouldn’t have an issue with unemployment, we wouldn’t have an issue with bankrupt businesses, we wouldn’t have air travel down 70% year over year.

It’s possible that in some areas there’s more activity than others and I do think more people are out and about most places locally at restaurants or shopping or other local activities vs what was happening in the Spring. That doesn’t necessarily translate to WDW and other tourism areas. It’s one thing to go out to eat one night and another to get on a plane and fly somewhere to stay for an extended period of time. WDW has seen larger crowds recently than July when they first opened but that has a lot do with less AP restrictions. Locals make up a large portion of the increase. That’s why the parks are much more crowded on weekends and resorts are still half closed. If demand picked up from out of state tourists they would open the resorts and likely slap those restrictions right back on AP holders.

I was just at WDW Tuesday and Wednesday. There were a lot of out of state license plates looking around at the toll plaza at both MK and Epcot. In July and August there were almost none.

Many days there is AP availability for all parks but some are filled for resort and day ticket guests. Either day I could have booked same day for all 4 parks but DHS was unavailable for resort and day tickets.

The biggest thing holding back out of state guests to WDW are the nonsensical, unenforceable and probably illegal mandatory quarantines imposed by the northeast states.

 

[BrianLo]

i hear ya, and i don't think those case numbers necessarily dispel that, since PCR testing is great at surveillance and not ideal for clinical diagnosis. the low level of severe and dire outcomes seem to imply, at the very least, an effective immune response by the population at large. but we can geek out about that between ourselves. sorry if it came off like i was busting your chops specifically, bri.

No worries! A lot of people are very tired of this, understandably.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 73 new deaths reported.

 

[DisneyCane]

i hear ya, and i don't think those case numbers necessarily dispel that, since PCR testing is great at surveillance and not ideal for clinical diagnosis. the low level of severe and dire outcomes seem to imply, at the very least, an effective immune response by the population at large. but we can geek out about that between ourselves. sorry if it came off like i was busting your chops specifically, bri.


thanks! my mom says i'm handsome, too!

Also, the PCR testing has a decent number of both false negatives and false positives. See Nick Saban for a recent false positive.

I know it is semantics but I don't think asymptomatic people should be categorized as having a "case." They test positive as a virus carrier that may or may not be contagious. A "case" of an illness is someone who gets sick. If they broke the numbers out that way it would give a better picture of how many people get sick from this virus.

 

[GoofGoof]

Just some facts on the Sweden myth:

• Sweden did not have as many mandatory closures on things like restaurants and bars compared to the US, but they did and still do have restrictions. On the topic of WDW, if the park was in Sweden it would be closed right now. Most of us are a little frustrated with CA for not allowing DLR to open, it wouldn’t be open in Sweden either. Something I think a lot of people maybe don’t realize because in certain circles that info wouldn‘t fit the narrative.
• Sweden’s economy tanked, just like all world economies. Not “locking down“ did little to save their economy...which was the primary reason to do it. Like it or not the world economy is linked and you can’t just undo that on a whim. We will need to wait several years likely to look back and see if there was any real economic benefit to the Sweden plan.
• The primary myth is that life went on business as usual in Sweden, it didn’t. Although the government didn’t mandate lockdowns people still restricted their own actions. Bars and movie theaters and restaurants were allowed to be open but there was a very large decrease in activity overall. This is also ignored in a lot of circles. As it relates to WDW, there’s a similar myth that if all Covid restrictions were removed business would go back to normal. Also unlikely to be true. I know it frustrates people to hear but you can’t force the masses to participate in the economy during a pandemic. In other words Covid killed the economy not government imposed restrictions. The restrictions expedited the process but it’s very unlikely that the economy would be fine or even better off right now. As we see in FL right now there are no government restrictions but tourism hasn’t returned in any meaningful way and many, many people are still unemployed.

 

[DisneyCane]

Numbers are out - there were 73 new deaths reported.

View attachment 508002View attachment 508003View attachment 508004View attachment 508005

Yet another example of why weekly reports would give a more accurate picture of what is going on. No trend conclusion can be drawn by the last few days of data.

 

[easyrowrdw]

It’s crazy to think that these death rates are somehow celebrated as doing good. Even if the average is down to “only” 30 people a day in FL that’s an annual total over 10,000 people dying. I can’t see how anyone thinks that’s doing good.

It's not good, but I've pretty much given up on seeing it change much. I used to think we should be aiming for zero, but that simply doesn't seem realistic as this point. If we ever had a chance it's been long since blown.

 

[DisneyCane]

Just some facts on the Sweden myth:

• Sweden did not have as many mandatory closures on things like restaurants and bars compared to the US, but they did and still do have restrictions. On the topic of WDW, if the park was in Sweden it would be closed right now. Most of us are a little frustrated with CA for not allowing DLR to open, it wouldn’t be open in Sweden either. Something I think a lot of people maybe don’t realize because in certain circles that info wouldn‘t fit the narrative.
• Sweden’s economy tanked, just like all world economies. Not “locking down“ did little to save their economy...which was the primary reason to do it. Like it or not the world economy is linked and you can’t just undo that on a whim. We will need to wait several years likely to look back and see if there was any real economic benefit to the Sweden plan.
• The primary myth is that life went on business as usual in Sweden, it didn’t. Although the government didn’t mandate lockdowns people still restricted their own actions. Bars and movie theaters and restaurants were allowed to be open but there was a very large decrease in activity overall. This is also ignored in a lot of circles. As it relates to WDW, there’s a similar myth that if all Covid restrictions were removed business would go back to normal. Also unlikely to be true. I know it frustrates people to hear but you can’t force the masses to participate in the economy during a pandemic. In other words Covid killed the economy not government imposed restrictions. The restrictions expedited the process but it’s very unlikely that the economy would be fine or even better off right now. As we see in FL right now there are no government restrictions but tourism hasn’t returned in any meaningful way and many, many people are still unemployed.

I'd be willing to bet that if the northeast states removes the quarantines and WDW went back to normal (including ride capacity) except kept the social distancing in the queues and continued to require masks (for people that feel comfortable because of the requirements), the attendance would be 70% or more of the same times last year.

 

[GoofGoof]

I was just at WDW Tuesday and Wednesday. There were a lot of out of state license plates looking around at the toll plaza at both MK and Epcot. In July and August there were almost none.

Many days there is AP availability for all parks but some are filled for resort and day ticket guests. Either day I could have booked same day for all 4 parks but DHS was unavailable for resort and day tickets.

The biggest thing holding back out of state guests to WDW are the nonsensical, unenforceable and probably illegal mandatory quarantines imposed by the northeast states.

Look, I am not saying nobody from out of state is going to WDW, I’m sure there are out of state drivers (many people prefer driving to flying right now, like it or not), you also have snow birds from out of state in FL. In any case, the facts are the facts. Half the resorts are closed. If out of state guests were returning in the numbers needed or wanted they would be opening those resorts.

As far as travel quarantine requirements they are a reality, like it or not and I agree its impacting WDW. I don’t think it’s the biggest factor, that’s the virus itself, but it’s a factor.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'd be willing to bet that if the northeast states removes the quarantines and WDW went back to normal (including ride capacity) except kept the social distancing in the queues and continued to require masks (for people that feel comfortable because of the requirements), the attendance would be 70% or more of the same times last year.

Polling that’s been done suggests the exact opposite but you can believe whatever you choose.

 

[sullyinMT]

Yet another example of why weekly reports would give a more accurate picture of what is going on. No trend conclusion can be drawn by the last few days of data.

No, but at least today looks “normalized.” Looking at the charts once today is factored in, the rolling average will be a better picture overall.
We don’t claim victory on one day’s data, we don’t claim defeat, either.

 

[DisneyCane]

It's not good, but I've pretty much given up on seeing it change much. I used to think we should be aiming for zero, but that simply doesn't seem realistic as this point. If we ever had a chance it's been long since blown.

We never had a chance. It is impossible to eradicate a virus like this without a vaccine. The goal of zero was yet another of the poor projections by the IHME model.

BTW, as of a few days ago 82% of Florida's deaths are age 65+ and 40% of the deaths were nursing home residents. I'm not saying it's a wonderful thing but it leads to my attitude about the virus because it is very rare for a child or young to middle aged adult to die from it. For people under 65, there are many other diseases that have the same rare chance of infecting and killing them.

 

[The Mom]

It's not good, but I've pretty much given up on seeing it change much. I used to think we should be aiming for zero, but that simply doesn't seem realistic as this point. If we ever had a chance it's been long since blown.

The chance to get it down to zero was back in January/February. But the measures needed to achieve it, and maintain it, would have been unacceptable to the people of the US.

 

[techgeek]

f WDW took away all of the negative protocols (no entertainment or character interactions and reduced ride capacity) and the states took away their scientifically unjustified (and possibly unconstitutional) quarantines, I'd bet that current attendance and resort bookings would be 80% or more of what they were last October.

I'd be willing to bet that if the northeast states removes the quarantines and WDW went back to normal (including ride capacity) except kept the social distancing in the queues and continued to require masks (for people that feel comfortable because of the requirements), the attendance would be 70% or more of the same times last year.

You’re moving your own goalposts. Is the 70%, (or 80%?), based on your thoughts and feelings or do you have a economic basis for that number?

 

[Chi84]

It's not good, but I've pretty much given up on seeing it change much. I used to think we should be aiming for zero, but that simply doesn't seem realistic as this point. If we ever had a chance it's been long since blown.

I don't think zero was ever possible. People need to eat, have necessary property repairs made, get medical treatment, etc. Necessary workers had to go to work, and I'm sure that spread the virus in the early days.

 

[baymenxpac]

Just some facts on the Sweden myth:

• Sweden did not have as many mandatory closures on things like restaurants and bars compared to the US, but they did and still do have restrictions. On the topic of WDW, if the park was in Sweden it would be closed right now. Most of us are a little frustrated with CA for not allowing DLR to open, it wouldn’t be open in Sweden either. Something I think a lot of people maybe don’t realize because in certain circles that info wouldn‘t fit the narrative.
• Sweden’s economy tanked, just like all world economies. Not “locking down“ did little to save their economy...which was the primary reason to do it. Like it or not the world economy is linked and you can’t just undo that on a whim. We will need to wait several years likely to look back and see if there was any real economic benefit to the Sweden plan.
• The primary myth is that life went on business as usual in Sweden, it didn’t. Although the government didn’t mandate lockdowns people still restricted their own actions. Bars and movie theaters and restaurants were allowed to be open but there was a very large decrease in activity overall. This is also ignored in a lot of circles. As it relates to WDW, there’s a similar myth that if all Covid restrictions were removed business would go back to normal. Also unlikely to be true. I know it frustrates people to hear but you can’t force the masses to participate in the economy during a pandemic. In other words Covid killed the economy not government imposed restrictions. The restrictions expedited the process but it’s very unlikely that the economy would be fine or even better off right now. As we see in FL right now there are no government restrictions but tourism hasn’t returned in any meaningful way and many, many people are still unemployed.

well, the first part is true. gatherings were limited to 500 people. but those restrictions have slowly eroded. as of this week, it is no longer recommended that even elderly swedes continue to isolate.

sweden's economy took an initial hit, but it did not tank. sweden saw its economy shrink 8.6% in the april-to-june, but over the same period, the EU saw an 11.9% contraction. spain was 18.5%, france and italy were 13.8% and 12.4%, respectively.

yes, swedes voluntarily decided to decrease mobility, but that's what SHOULD happen in the face of uncertainty. trust in your people to go along with a pragmatic public message.

we live in a global economy, so of course a pandemic is going to show up in economic indicators. no, you can't force people to participate in the economy, but when you effectively communicate with your populous and resist the urge to panic, you create a more resilient people. which makes the economy recover more quickly. is why it's now life and usual in sweden.

tourism hasn't returned in florida because of bureaucratic restrictions. state governments still have quarantine lists, which makes people reluctant to even deal with traveling. i have family that own property down there that desperately want to go but won't because they don't want to deal with cuomo's restrictions once they get back. a lot of people don't want to vacation in 95 degree weather with mask mandates. that's policy, not "the virus."

 

[baymenxpac]

The chance to get it down to zero was back in January/February. But the measures needed to achieve it, and maintain it, would have been unacceptable to the people of the US.

i mostly agree with that, though i don't think that's solely a U.S. issue. it's a human being issue. what we learned through this is not only is all work essential, but the human experience isn't solely sustained by food, water, shelter.

this is my opinion, but zero COVID wasn't really ever attainable, especially with the number of asymptomatic and mild cases, and even more so in a globalized world. but again, i think if we took a balance look at COVID through a strictly clinical lens (without politics), i think we'd see that there's no need for a zero COVID strategy when much more could be achieved with targeted measures and approaches.

 

[Mark52479]

Yet another example of why weekly reports would give a more accurate picture of what is going on. No trend conclusion can be drawn by the last few days of data.

Agreed.

The daily positivity fluctuation is crazy.

No way you can look at just one day. Need to avg the 7 days

 

[The Mom]

I don't think zero was ever possible. People need to eat, have necessary property repairs made, get medical treatment, etc. Necessary workers had to go to work, and I'm sure that spread the virus in the early days.

Exactly. Reducing the number to zero would have required a total, 2 week lock down of everyone. Which might have meant even more initial deaths but a decrease in numbers long term. And it would have required everyone on earth doing so simultaneously, or as soon as travel restrictions were eased, the numbers would shoot up again.

And even then it might just become dormant, and flare right up again. Until either a vaccine was found, or this particular strain mutated into something less deadly.