Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Florida looking good. Here is the latest death by COVID chart from Florida COVID site
View attachment 507990

It’s % positive and rolling average that are determining the travel obstructions

People don’t want to be INFECTED...not “I have a low chance of dying”

I know you love Disney...but where are you getting your medical analysis from??

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Remember back in April - May when it seemed people were dropping like flies from this? Sweeping through nursing homes and such? We hit a plateau at a much higher level now and it is a long time dropping. Seems almost like we are seeing fewer deaths or have become normalized to them.
I hope something changes for the better....

That’s because the very smart people (guess who I’m not talking about?) figured out how to use some treatments to lessen the severity...and a large number of people are being careful. Just like it was predicted.

Thank Washington (state), New York, New Jersey, Spain, Italy, Germany, Taiwan, Singapore, Japan...dead truth.

 

[GoofGoof]

Remember back in April - May when it seemed people were dropping like flies from this? Sweeping through nursing homes and such? We hit a plateau at a much higher level now and it is a long time dropping. Seems almost like we are seeing fewer deaths or have become normalized to them.
I hope something changes for the better....

It’s crazy to think that these death rates are somehow celebrated as doing good. Even if the average is down to “only” 30 people a day in FL that’s an annual total over 10,000 people dying. I can’t see how anyone thinks that’s doing good.

 

[GimpYancIent]

No. It is not looking good. The Florida site specifically says that the last two weeks are undercounted because it takes that long for death data to be passed locally to the main data bank.

Here's further in on their dashboard...

View attachment 507991

So, their chart of deaths always looks like it's heading toward zero.

Here's what it looks like when you contact the counties every day and get their number before they wend their way through the FL government...

View attachment 507992

It's been stuck in a plateau of 70-100 deaths per day since the August spike was over. Just like it was a plateau after the May spike. And yet, for the past 5 months, the FL chart always looked like deaths were declining to zero because of the two week delay in data.

One epidemiologist tracking FL numbers says it's actually the last 3 weeks you can't trust because of later updates...

View attachment 507993

FL's positivity rate and hospitalization rates have also been in plateau mode. So, there's no reason to think that death rate is in decline.

All the charts, statistics and various data thrown at everyone over the last months has reached blizzard proportions. So now it all is basically an unintelligible white out, a picture on a screen mostly obscured by electronic snow. In short the graphics are not helpful anymore. Sorry to burst your bubble.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s crazy to think that these death rates are somehow celebrated as doing good. Even if the average is down to “only” 30 people a day in FL that’s an annual total over 10,000 people dying. I can’t see how anyone thinks that’s doing good.

Any death rates being celebrated as “good” 9 months on is borderline white jacket.

We are learning a lot about our fellow “Disney fans”

It’s an entertainment company that sells movies, products and amusement parks.

We all have deep memories from that (or we wouldn’t be here)...but adults should be able to separate the memories from the product and keep the eyes on the prize.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

All the charts, statistics and various data thrown at everyone over the last months has reached blizzard proportions. So now it all is basically an unintelligible white out, a picture on a screen mostly obscured by electronic snow. In short the graphics are not helpful anymore. Sorry to burst your bubble.

I think it WAS that in May/June...we have more of a general understanding of what to look for now.

Don’t get distracted by the goal post moving. I learned what not to care about. I’m just looking at metrics restricting travel...keep it just that and the white noise diminishes.

 

[GoofGoof]

All the charts, statistics and various data thrown at everyone over the last months has reached blizzard proportions. So now it all is basically an unintelligible white out, a picture on a screen mostly obscured by electronic snow. In short the graphics are not helpful anymore. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Since the public health decisions in FL are no longer based on science or data and statistics I would say you may be right, but that doesn’t mean everyone should just bury their heads in the sand and ignore what’s happening. Just because the government chooses to do that doesn’t mean people have to follow. We are all free to choose how we want to act and what we want to base our decisions on. I would encourage everyone to look at all the available data and draw their own conclusions and then base their decisions on that vs listening to their echo chamber, but everyone is free to do what they want.

 

[techgeek]

All the charts, statistics and various data thrown at everyone over the last months has reached blizzard proportions. So now it all is basically an unintelligible white out, a picture on a screen mostly obscured by electronic snow. In short the graphics are not helpful anymore. Sorry to burst your bubble.

The majority the discussion here has revolved around the regular update of a handful of charts that have not significantly changed in their reporting method for months. It's true that if you start going down the rabbit hole you can come up with a graph at this point to justify almost anything, but that's how it always has been with large data sets. The science works to filter out the noise and produce an intelligible signal.

If we're supposed to throw out all the data, then how would you suggest we manage it? By what metric should WDW adjust mitigation protocol going forward?

 

[Kevin_W]

All the charts, statistics and various data thrown at everyone over the last months has reached blizzard proportions. So now it all is basically an unintelligible white out, a picture on a screen mostly obscured by electronic snow. In short the graphics are not helpful anymore. Sorry to burst your bubble.

I'm sorry if that's the case for you, Gimp. But I think the graphics were and remain helpful. We're adding more data to the picture continually, which makes it clearer and not unintelligible, IMO.

 

[baymenxpac]

Hate to burst your bubble!

View attachment 507943

I realize I may be responding to an internet robot...

now do deaths.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

now do deaths.

As the title of the thread says, it’s coronavirus and WDW. The main topic is how safe Disney can be.. regulations on opening more if when and if they can.. etc. Deaths of course are horrendous but what Disney is looking at is percent positive.. is it going up or down.. actual real data so they can make decisions. We all know deaths have dropped but the other numbers are determining what Disney will do. They aren’t basing their decisions on how many died in any given day.

 

[baymenxpac]

It’s % positive and rolling average that are determining the travel obstructions

People don’t want to be INFECTED...not “I have a low chance of dying”

I know you love Disney...but where are you getting your medical analysis from??

i think you and i tend to be like-minded people, but i think this is a great example of you letting your politics color your worldview on this.

all the way back in february, we were explicitly told that 40-to-70% of the population would get this: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...ldwide-virus-expert-warning-today-2020-03-02/

marc lipsitch, who has grown more and more shrill as this has progressed, said this on march 3: "This is not an existential threat. This is, qualitatively, it's very much like a bad pandemic of influenza, which we experienced arguably twice or three times in the 20th Century. It's worse than the one that we experienced in 2009. But none of those brought civilization close to its knees. They made things awful for a while."

and goal post moving is really centered on the left, where the goal was always to spread out the timing of the infections, and this was when we assumed (wrongly) there was no built-in human resistance/immune response to this.

look, i don't know how much more evidence you need that you can't prevent yourself from being infected. sure, there are things to do to limit your exposure, but not for an indefinite period of time, and especially not if you're working class. long-term business restrictions aren't the answer, and i feel like anyone that isn't afraid of being labeled a "right winger" or a "conspiracy theorist" is comfortable saying this.

 

[baymenxpac]

As the title of the thread says, it’s coronavirus and WDW. The main topic is how safe Disney can be.. regulations on opening more if when and if they can.. etc. Deaths of course are horrendous but what Disney is looking at is percent positive.. is it going up or down.. actual real data so they can make decisions. We all know deaths have dropped but the other numbers are determining what Disney will do. They aren’t basing their decisions on how many died in any given day.

thanks for your concern (and for pretending that this isn't 2,100 pages of off topic discussion), but brian posted a reference to swedish "cases," i was responding to show that "cases" aka positive tests, are not a good metric, and that deaths in sweden are null and they show no excess mortality for the year 2020. as much as people want to pretend to suit political agendas that sweden is narnia, it doesn't make it so.

also, if disney isn't basing their policies on how dangerous covid ultimately is (which is why they would care about something like what percentage of the tests are positive), then what are they basing their policies on?

 

[BrianLo]

now do deaths.

It’s not started to rise as aggressively, but I’ll trot out the trope “deaths lag”.

I have yet to find a single instance where the rise in cases did not eventually correlate quite nicely with deaths. We went through this whole line of thinking with Florida over the Summer. In retrospect the curves matched.

Unfortunately it’s still early days in Europe’s second wave.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It’s % positive and rolling average that are determining the travel obstructions

People don’t want to be INFECTED...not “I have a low chance of dying”

I know you love Disney...but where are you getting your medical analysis from??

The link is in my post.

 

[Disstevefan1]

No. It is not looking good. The Florida site specifically says that the last two weeks are undercounted because it takes that long for death data to be passed locally to the main data bank.

Here's further in on their dashboard...

View attachment 507991

So, their chart of deaths always looks like it's heading toward zero.

Here's what it looks like when you contact the counties every day and get their number before they wend their way through the FL government...

View attachment 507992

It's been stuck in a plateau of 70-100 deaths per day since the August spike was over. Just like it was a plateau after the May spike. And yet, for the past 5 months, the FL chart always looked like deaths were declining to zero because of the two week delay in data.

One epidemiologist tracking FL numbers says it's actually the last 3 weeks you can't trust because of later updates...

View attachment 507993

FL's positivity rate and hospitalization rates have also been in plateau mode. So, there's no reason to think that death rate is in decline.

I go to the FL COVID site, I look at a chart see only 2 deaths from COVID, I am not allowed to say Florida is looking good - Got it.

 

[baymenxpac]

It’s not started to rise as aggressively, but I’ll trot out the trope “deaths lag”.

I have yet to find a single instance where the rise in cases did not eventually correlate quite nicely with deaths. We went through this whole line of thinking with Florida over the Summer. In retrospect the curves matched.

Unfortunately it’s still early days in Europe’s second wave.

it hasn't started to rise at all.

that chart you posted shows a gradual rise in cases in the mid-september. why would we expect something to drastically change after six weeks? deaths don't lag six weeks.

normally, i let most of the stuff in this thread go unchecked. but people bending themselves into a pretzel to say sweden was going to be a war zone, then it wasn't because they had imaginary, voluntarily lockdowns, but now it's going to be a war zone again because there are no mask mandates, is wild to me. can't we just admit that they're the only country that used tried-and-true pandemic response measures and they got it right?

 

[Jrb1979]

it hasn't started to rise at all.

View attachment 508000
that chart you posted shows a gradual rise in cases in the mid-september. why would we expect something to drastically change after six weeks? deaths don't lag six weeks.

normally, i let most of the stuff in this thread go unchecked. but people bending themselves into a pretzel to say sweden was going to be a war zone, then it wasn't because they had imaginary, voluntarily lockdowns, but now it's going to be a war zone again because there are no mask mandates, is wild to me. can't we just admit that they're the only country that used tried-and-true pandemic response measures and they got it right?

Can just forget what has already been done already and move on. Its tiring hearing day in and day out from all of y'all going on and on about the crap that's already happened. We can't change it so move on.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I go to the FL COVID site, I look at a chart see only 2 deaths from COVID, I am not allowed to say Florida is looking good - Got it.

A ray of light through the blinding snow storm!

 

[BrianLo]

it hasn't started to rise at all.

View attachment 508000
that chart you posted shows a gradual rise in cases in the mid-september. why would we expect something to drastically change after six weeks? deaths don't lag six weeks.

normally, i let most of the stuff in this thread go unchecked. but people bending themselves into a pretzel to say sweden was going to be a war zone, then it wasn't because they had imaginary, voluntarily lockdowns, but now it's going to be a war zone again because there are no mask mandates, is wild to me. can't we just admit that they're the only country that used tried-and-true pandemic response measures and they got it right?

For the record. I didn’t say any of that (in your second paragraph). The poster I was responding to said Sweden had developed herd immunity, which it hasn’t because cases are on the rise again.

That was all I was dispelling.