Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[The Mom]

I don't think zero was ever possible. People need to eat, have necessary property repairs made, get medical treatment, etc. Necessary workers had to go to work, and I'm sure that spread the virus in the early days.

Exactly. Reducing the number to zero would have required a total, 2 week lock down of everyone. Which might have meant even more initial deaths but a decrease in numbers long term. And it would have required everyone on earth doing so simultaneously, or as soon as travel restrictions were eased, the numbers would shoot up again.

And even then it might just become dormant, and flare right up again. Until either a vaccine was found, or this particular strain mutated into something less deadly.

 

[Jrb1979]

i mostly agree with that, though i don't think that's solely a U.S. issue. it's a human being issue. what we learned through this is not only is all work essential, but the human experience isn't solely sustained by food, water, shelter.

this is my opinion, but zero COVID wasn't really ever attainable, especially with the number of asymptomatic and mild cases, and even more so in a globalized world. but again, i think if we took a balance look at COVID through a strictly clinical lens (without politics), i think we'd see that there's no need for a zero COVID strategy when much more could be achieved with targeted measures and approaches.

I agree with most of that. Lockdowns may have not been needed but I believe the restrictions many places have are needed. The best way to slow the spread from the beginning is with CONTACT TRACING. That is something that never really happened. Contract tracing is the best way to isolate places where there is hot spots.

Instead all I hear is how it wouldn't work or I am not giving my government my information.

 

[Kevin_W]

tourism hasn't returned in florida because of bureaucratic restrictions. state governments still have quarantine lists, which makes people reluctant to even deal with traveling. i have family that own property down there that desperately want to go but won't because they don't want to deal with cuomo's restrictions once they get back. a lot of people don't want to vacation in 95 degree weather with mask mandates. that's policy, not "the virus."

That's probably all true, but I think the mask part is probably more in people's heads. It hit 90°F on 2 of the days we were there and wearing a mask wasn't a big deal at all (FWIW, I had this one). Even my daughter had no issues at all with putting one on when we left out hotel room and leaving it on until we returned.

I know from talking to coworkers that some are just leery to travel at all. Even if they feel it could be safe, they feel no need to do so and are content to just postpone until a later time.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Remember back in April - May when it seemed people were dropping like flies from this? Sweeping through nursing homes and such? We hit a plateau at a much higher level now and it is a long time dropping. Seems almost like we are seeing fewer deaths or have become normalized to them.
I hope something changes for the better....

It’s crazy to think that these death rates are somehow celebrated as doing good. Even if the average is down to “only” 30 people a day in FL that’s an annual total over 10,000 people dying. I can’t see how anyone thinks that’s doing good.

I remember when we first got to 500 deaths a day and it took my breath away.

 

[Jrb1979]

That's probably all true, but I think the mask part is probably more in people's heads. It hit 90°F on 2 of the days we were there and wearing a mask wasn't a big deal at all (FWIW, I had this one). Even my daughter had no issues at all with putting one on when we left out hotel room and leaving it on until we returned.

I know from talking to coworkers that some are just leery to travel at all. Even if they feel it could be safe, they feel no need to do so and are content to just postpone until a later time.

To add to that. Even here in Canada more people are doing their vacations in driving distance over flying across the country.

 

[baymenxpac]

I agree with most of that. Lockdowns may have not been needed but I believe the restrictions many places have are needed. The best way to slow the spread from the beginning is with CONTACT TRACING. That is something that never really happened. Contract tracing is the best way to isolate places where there is hot spots.

Instead all I hear is how it wouldn't work or I am not giving my government my information.

i think contact tracing is good in theory, but once there is vast community spread (which was the case very early in this thing), it's probably a waste of resources.

the WHO estimated last month that there have been 750 million infections worldwide. there's no way you can trace that many people, it's just impossible.

the best contact tracing people can do is: if you develop symptoms, don't be a jabroni. stay home. (a good use of gov't resources last spring, IMO, may have been an emergency paid sick leave program). if you have someone you know you spent a lot of time with in the day or two before you became symptomatic that's vulnerable, give 'em a head's up.

That's probably all true, but I think the mask part is probably more in people's heads. It hit 90°F on 2 of the days we were there and wearing a mask wasn't a big deal at all (FWIW, I had this one). Even my daughter had no issues at all with putting one on when we left out hotel room and leaving it on until we returned.

I know from talking to coworkers that some are just leery to travel at all. Even if they feel it could be safe, they feel no need to do so and are content to just postpone until a later time.

maybe. look, like i have said before, i'm not super bullish on the efficacy of masks in the general population (based on previous WHO and CDC recommendations about mask use in these situations). but it's not a hill i'm willing to die on, provided life is allowed to go on.

for everyone, it's certainly an individual choice. but to say it's solely the virus and that the hassle of gov't restrictions (or even that panicky gov't restrictions influence people's individual level of comfort) is, IMO, ill-advised.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

THIS is so incredibly horrifying. Look at that graph.

 

[Disstevefan1]

The chance to get it down to zero was back in January/February. But the measures needed to achieve it, and maintain it, would have been unacceptable to the people of the US.

Agreed, It’s so easy to Monday morning quarterback this thing.

The only way to have achieved the theoretical “zero” you would need a crystal ball and a flux capacitor.

Could you imagine if someway the US magically knew in early January, and ignored the WHO, and the US implemented a nationwide shutdown and closed the borders in the first week in January?

Folks would be going nuts and asking why.

 

[Chi84]

well, the first part is true. gatherings were limited to 500 people. but those restrictions have slowly eroded. as of this week, it is no longer recommended that even elderly swedes continue to isolate.

sweden's economy took an initial hit, but it did not tank. sweden saw its economy shrink 8.6% in the april-to-june, but over the same period, the EU saw an 11.9% contraction. spain was 18.5%, france and italy were 13.8% and 12.4%, respectively.

yes, swedes voluntarily decided to decrease mobility, but that's what SHOULD happen in the face of uncertainty. trust in your people to go along with a pragmatic public message.

we live in a global economy, so of course a pandemic is going to show up in economic indicators. no, you can't force people to participate in the economy, but when you effectively communicate with your populous and resist the urge to panic, you create a more resilient people. which makes the economy recover more quickly. is why it's now life and usual in sweden.

tourism hasn't returned in florida because of bureaucratic restrictions. state governments still have quarantine lists, which makes people reluctant to even deal with traveling. i have family that own property down there that desperately want to go but won't because they don't want to deal with cuomo's restrictions once they get back. a lot of people don't want to vacation in 95 degree weather with mask mandates. that's policy, not "the virus."

There's a lot of sense in what you've said. As far as life in Sweden being back as usual though, aren't the theme parks still closed? On a Disney site, that looks to many of us as if life is not back to usual.

I agree with what you say about trust and a pragmatic public message. Our politicians and media personnel behave like children, and so the thinking is that most people in this country should be treated like children. We could still benefit from a leader with the force of moral authority guiding people in making the correct choices, especially in the upcoming holiday season. Instead, they limit themselves to forcing people to wear masks in public, despite no evidence that COVID is transmitted by momentarily passing someone in a store aisle. I've been called naive and worse, but I believe that if people are told the truth and asked to live up to a certain standard, a great many of us would respond positively.

Despite what is often said here, wearing a mask is a big deal to a lot of people who won't return to an entertainment venue like WDW until the mandate is lifted. Right now Disney is taking more extreme precautions than many other businesses, and the fans who are putting up with them are diehards who would go no matter what. But my prediction is that WDW will not get the number of guests it needs as long as it is forcing people to wear masks outside in the sun in 95 degree weather and to put them on 2-year-olds. Dismissing something because it is "in people's heads" and contrary to one's own experience is not helpful.

 

[MisterPenguin]

All the charts, statistics and various data thrown at everyone over the last months has reached blizzard proportions. So now it all is basically an unintelligible white out, a picture on a screen mostly obscured by electronic snow. In short the graphics are not helpful anymore. Sorry to burst your bubble.

Number of people being tested.
Number of people testing positive.
Positivity rate (ratio of the first two)

Number of people hospitalized
Number of people in ICU

Number of people dead from COVID as reported today
Number of people dead aligning their date of death in the chart, rather than the day reported.

And that's basically it.

Is that really that hard?

Or is this the equivalent of putting one's fingers in one's ears and chanting: I can't hear you I cant hear you....

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yet another example of why weekly reports would give a more accurate picture of what is going on. No trend conclusion can be drawn by the last few days of data.

That's why most charts (the good ones) have a rolling 7 day average.

No one should look at the current day's number and declare that things have turned around for better or worse.

Just look at the trend line.

 

[baymenxpac]

There's a lot of sense in what you've said. As far as life in Sweden being back as usual though, aren't the theme parks still closed? On a Disney site, that looks to many of us as if life is not back to usual.

I agree with what you say about trust and a pragmatic public message. Our politicians and media personnel behave like children, and so the thinking is that most people in this country should be treated like children. We could still benefit from a leader with the force of moral authority guiding people in making the correct choices, especially in the upcoming holiday season. Instead, they limit themselves to forcing people to wear masks in public, despite no evidence that COVID is transmitted by momentarily passing someone in a store aisle. I've been called naive and worse, but I believe that if people are told the truth and asked to live up to a certain standard, a great many of us would respond positively.

Despite what is often said here, wearing a mask is a big deal to a lot of people who won't return to an entertainment venue like WDW until the mandate is lifted. Right now Disney is taking more extreme precautions than many other businesses, and the fans who are putting up with them are diehards who would go no matter what. But my prediction is that WDW will not get the number of guests it needs as long as it is forcing people to wear masks outside in the sun in 95 degree weather and to put them on 2-year-olds. Dismissing something because it is "in people's heads" and contrary to one's own experience is not helpful.

i can honestly say i'm not sure about theme parks in sweden, though i do think you're right that they're closed. if i'm not mistaken, i believe they were aiming to increase gatherings to a limit of 2,500 people in october. at least last i saw.

agree with everything you said here. i will speak candidly and say that, while i play the game and wear a mask when i go into a store and/or where one is required, i won't take my kids to disney until the mandate is lifted. i'm not going to sit here and make a big deal about it (though i do think masks are basically a talisman), i just will hold off until they can have a normal disney experience.

 

[GoofGoof]

well, the first part is true. gatherings were limited to 500 people. but those restrictions have slowly eroded. as of this week, it is no longer recommended that even elderly swedes continue to isolate.

sweden's economy took an initial hit, but it did not tank. sweden saw its economy shrink 8.6% in the april-to-june, but over the same period, the EU saw an 11.9% contraction. spain was 18.5%, france and italy were 13.8% and 12.4%, respectively.

yes, swedes voluntarily decided to decrease mobility, but that's what SHOULD happen in the face of uncertainty. trust in your people to go along with a pragmatic public message.

we live in a global economy, so of course a pandemic is going to show up in economic indicators. no, you can't force people to participate in the economy, but when you effectively communicate with your populous and resist the urge to panic, you create a more resilient people. which makes the economy recover more quickly. is why it's now life and usual in sweden.

tourism hasn't returned in florida because of bureaucratic restrictions. state governments still have quarantine lists, which makes people reluctant to even deal with traveling. i have family that own property down there that desperately want to go but won't because they don't want to deal with cuomo's restrictions once they get back. a lot of people don't want to vacation in 95 degree weather with mask mandates. that's policy, not "the virus."

Do you have a link to something showing that the group gathering restriction is gone in Sweden? I was under the impression that it was still in place which essentially keeps theme parks there closed but I admit I have no horse in the race so haven’t followed it all that closely. If they have removed it is there any news on theme parks opening? I would assume they are all open or opening soon then. From what I could find online it looks like Sweden is considering more restrictions not less. In the articles attached they are looking to cap night clubs and it looks like they expect the restrictions to be around for a while. Again, I may not be up to date with Sweden‘s plans so if all of this has changed recently than I stand corrected.

Sweden Clamps Down on Nightclubs After Packed Parties Risk Spread

Sweden will cap the number of club-goers at 50, after images of people partying in Stockholm sparked outrage in the country.

www.bloomberg.com

MSN

www.msn.com

Compared to their Scandinavian neighbors the economy in Sweden didn’t fair a lot better. Like I said, we need to wait until the dust settles to look back at the economic impact. Either side can cherry pick stats to make it look like their narrative is accurate. Once this is all over the look back will be fascinating.

Im sorry, but you can’t will people to act a certain way by just saying it over and over. Saying the virus isn’t so bad or people shouldn‘t fear a virus or people need to get out of their basement or the virus will be gone soon isn’t going to make it happen. People are going to make up their own minds. The best way to get the economy back up and running strong is to lower the overall spread of the virus and have safety measures (like Disney does) that makes people feel comfortable.

I know this poll is dated, but it shows that removing safety restrictions at theme parks may attract some additional people it will turn off many more. The idea that if you remove restrictions things would go back to something close to normal is flawed. Many people prefer Disney to keep safety measures and Disney has to consider the demographics too. They have all the internal polling to know which way people lean and it’s telling that they haven’t made any moves to remove restrictions.

Poll finds 78% of US parents won't visit theme parks in 2020

US guests are not yet ready to visit theme parks, as a poll by Morning Consult finds that 78 percent say it's too soon to return to parks in summer 2020.

blooloop.com

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Also, the PCR testing has a decent number of both false negatives and false positives. See Nick Saban for a recent false positive.

I know it is semantics but I don't think asymptomatic people should be categorized as having a "case." They test positive as a virus carrier that may or may not be contagious. A "case" of an illness is someone who gets sick. If they broke the numbers out that way it would give a better picture of how many people get sick from this virus.

Sorry...but they absolutely should. They can spread the virus, they are a "case". They are not a patient.

 

[MisterPenguin]

‘At Capacity’: Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink (Published 2020)

Utah officials issued urgent pleas and said they were planning to open a field hospital, which Wisconsin has already done. At least 14 states have a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations.

www.nytimes.com

Utah officials issued urgent pleas and said they were planning to open a field hospital, which Wisconsin has already done. At least 14 states have a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations.​

​

WEST ALLIS, Wis. — A hospital in Idaho is 99 percent full and warning that it may have to transfer coronavirus patients to hospitals in Seattle and Portland, Ore. Medical centers in Kansas City, Mo., turned away ambulances on a recent day because they had no room for more patients. And in West Allis, just outside Milwaukee, an emergency field hospital erected on the grounds of the Wisconsin State Fair admitted its first virus patient this week.​

​

More than 41,000 people are currently hospitalized with the coronavirus in the United States, a 40 percent rise in the past month, and cooler weather that pushes more people indoors is threatening to expand the outbreak still more. At least 14 states saw more people hospitalized for the virus on a day in the past week than on any other day in the pandemic, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Seven more states are nearing their peaks.​

 

[zurj]

I think the current experience as WDW has more than a little to do with keeping some people away. Also, they are hitting the reduced capacity on the weekends pretty frequently now.

Some of air travel being down is due to the economic circumstances. International travel (to/from the US) being turned off in a lot of cases also effects the domestic passenger numbers to an extent since people aren't flying to/from hubs to go to other countries.

My point was that back in April and May, people were scared to death by the way the media reported on the virus and made it seem like testing positive for COVID was like getting a stage 4 pancreatic cancer diagnosis. As people have come to terms with what it really is, a significant percentage of people are returning to normal, pre-COVID activities.

These significant increases are occurring while the virus is still "out of control." If WDW took away all of the negative protocols (no entertainment or character interactions and reduced ride capacity) and the states took away their scientifically unjustified (and possibly unconstitutional) quarantines, I'd bet that current attendance and resort bookings would be 80% or more of what they were last October. The 20% down would be due to elderly being careful/staying away, the part of the population that still thinks COVID is the bubonic plague and the impact of the economic downturn.

Sounds to me like you're not living in an appropriate amount of fear.

 

[Angelo721]

Read this source https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/could-covid-19-ever-be-eradicated

It says that it is hard if not impossible to totally eradicate a disease like Covid. Can we do it, sure. But if your locked in your house, mask on waiting for the day there are no more Covid cases, then you have a long wait.

Bottom line is that 99.75% if people who get Covid recover (https://www.webmd.com/lung/covid-recovery-overview#2). So why hide?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I go to the FL COVID site, I look at a chart see only 2 deaths from COVID, I am not allowed to say Florida is looking good - Got it.

It’s a good day for DEATHS...not really anything else.

...don’t look for any parades or new ride openings anything soon

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

‘At Capacity’: Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink (Published 2020)

Utah officials issued urgent pleas and said they were planning to open a field hospital, which Wisconsin has already done. At least 14 states have a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations.

www.nytimes.com

Utah officials issued urgent pleas and said they were planning to open a field hospital, which Wisconsin has already done. At least 14 states have a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations.​

​

WEST ALLIS, Wis. — A hospital in Idaho is 99 percent full and warning that it may have to transfer coronavirus patients to hospitals in Seattle and Portland, Ore. Medical centers in Kansas City, Mo., turned away ambulances on a recent day because they had no room for more patients. And in West Allis, just outside Milwaukee, an emergency field hospital erected on the grounds of the Wisconsin State Fair admitted its first virus patient this week.​

​

More than 41,000 people are currently hospitalized with the coronavirus in the United States, a 40 percent rise in the past month, and cooler weather that pushes more people indoors is threatening to expand the outbreak still more. At least 14 states saw more people hospitalized for the virus on a day in the past week than on any other day in the pandemic, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Seven more states are nearing their peaks.​

So you’re saying that’s NOT good then??

 

[zurj]

‘At Capacity’: Covid-19 Patients Push U.S. Hospitals to Brink (Published 2020)

Utah officials issued urgent pleas and said they were planning to open a field hospital, which Wisconsin has already done. At least 14 states have a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations.

www.nytimes.com

Utah officials issued urgent pleas and said they were planning to open a field hospital, which Wisconsin has already done. At least 14 states have a record number of coronavirus hospitalizations.​

​

WEST ALLIS, Wis. — A hospital in Idaho is 99 percent full and warning that it may have to transfer coronavirus patients to hospitals in Seattle and Portland, Ore. Medical centers in Kansas City, Mo., turned away ambulances on a recent day because they had no room for more patients. And in West Allis, just outside Milwaukee, an emergency field hospital erected on the grounds of the Wisconsin State Fair admitted its first virus patient this week.​

​

More than 41,000 people are currently hospitalized with the coronavirus in the United States, a 40 percent rise in the past month, and cooler weather that pushes more people indoors is threatening to expand the outbreak still more. At least 14 states saw more people hospitalized for the virus on a day in the past week than on any other day in the pandemic, according to the Covid Tracking Project. Seven more states are nearing their peaks.​

This will help us live in an appropriate amount of fear.