Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
zurj said:
All this talk about hoping the vaccine is safe? How safe are we talking here? Like 99.997% safe? Because that's about how safe it is for people 0-19 to just get the virus. Vaccines, especially new ones, have a much higher potential to be statistically more dangerous. But to be "deemed safe" (whatever that means) by our never-failing-all-wise-government, to benefit Big Pharma, whose companies can't be sued if their product destroys a child's life and yet stand to make billions if they just "deem it safe", doesn't sound 99.997% safe to me. How safe is safe enough for kids? Because it almost sounds safer to just let kids get the virus.

But then I guess the kids might spread the disease to the rest of the population who has only a 99.96% survival rate if they are under age 70. And what good is a kid if we can't unselfishly inject him with a brand new vaccine with no studies on long term impact in order to protect the rest of the population which consists of adults who have not only lived their lives, but can make the choice as to whether that 99.96% survival rate is worth risking in order to re-join this dirty, germ filled society.

Of course it's the 70+ crowd we must attempt to keep alive forever, and only 94.6% of those will survive this horrific disease. In England and Wales, the average age of death to this deadly virus was 82... 82!!!! and to think, many of those might have lived to see 83 one day! Many of those were taken too soon, and if you don't inject this vaccine with unknown consequence into your children, another 82 year old might die needlessly. Of course the average age of death from all other causes in England and Wales is 81, which I guess is a silver lining to those deniers out there who just so happen to not want fear of this deadly virus to dictate their actions.

Please, tell us again how crazy and selfish we are for wanting to avoid putting a new vaccine into our children's bodies because the government "deems it safe".

Call me crazy for not wanting to put strange stuff with unknown side affects into my kids body in order to keep that deadly virus away, but with 99.997% odds, I guess I'll just have to roll the dice.
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You can’t live your life in fear of a vaccine :cool:
 
DisneyDebRob

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
DCBaker said:
"Less than two weeks after Carnival Cruise Line said it would begin to restart cruises from PortMiami and Port Canaveral on Nov. 1, on Monday the company canceled all cruises through the end of November.

Cruises are currently banned in the U.S. through Oct. 31 after the White House blocked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from extending its “no-sail” order until February 2021 as it had planned. The industry first shut down passenger cruises in mid-March amid COVID-19 outbreaks on several ships.

Carnival Cruise Line was the only major cruise company that said it intended to restart limited cruising Nov. 1. All others previously canceled cruises through November. Competitors Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, MSC Cruises, Disney Cruise Line and Virgin Voyages are selling U.S. cruises for December."

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I think, well most of us, saw this coming a long time ago. I would be surprised, with the rates rising actor the country right now that this isn’t pushed back to March, April time frame. Maybe that’s a bit further out then most would think but if it’s even half as bad as what some are predicting come this winter, it could be a long haul.
 
Miss Bella

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
That‘s what I was referring to. It was a joke of course. Everyone can do what they want and nobody should label anyone as “living in fear” because of valid concerns about a virus or a vaccine.
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I agree with that. I would also say don’t call people selfish, ignorant, stupid, conspiracy theorist or any of the other names that get thrown around here for not wanting to get vaccinated or not wanting things locked down.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
LUVMCO said:
I agree with that. I would also say don’t call people selfish, ignorant, stupid, conspiracy theorist or any of the other names that get thrown around here for not wanting to get vaccinated or not wanting things locked down.
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Nobody is any of those things for not wanting to get vaccinated or not wanting things locked down. However, some of those things can apply if for example someone brings up a ridiculous narrative from a conspiracy theory like only 6% of Covid deaths are actually from Covid, that’s a conspiracy theory. It’s not selfish to not want to be locked down, I don’t think many people want that anyway, it is selfish to go to work or a party knowing you are infected or refusing to comply with requests for contact tracing. Stuff like that. I’m not going to call anyone here stupid or ignorant...even if I thought they might be;). I think we all have a right to have different views or opinions and it’s not my place to decide which are stupid or ignorant.
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Update to the vaccine timeline outline in red...

Reading about the status of various vaccines have left me confused as to which vaccines are which and where they are in development and who's saying what about how far along they are. So, I made an outline...


Monderna/NIH

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -20C, and 2 doses)​
​
Warp Speed: $2.5B, for 100M doses​
​
Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people, enrollment completes in September​
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Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine B” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 1M doses by Oct, 10M by Nov, 15M by Dec.​
​
Earliest according to manufacturer: by the end of 2020.​



Biontech/Pfizer/Fosun

Type: mRNA (requires ultra-cold storage, -70C, and 2 doses)​
​
Phase 3: Started Jul 27, 30K people​
​
Warp Speed: $1.9B for 100M doses (by Dec?)​
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Earliest according to CDC: “Vaccine A” – local health departments, prepare for Oct (just in case, if all goes very well). Late Oct or Nov. 2M doses by end of Oct, 10-20M doses by Nov, 20-30M dosed by Dec.​
​
Earliest according to manufacturer: Regulatory review in Oct. which could theoretically lead to early end of Phase 3.​



AstraZeneca/Oxford
​
Type: altered chimp adenovirus​
​
Warp Speed: $1.2B​
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Phase 3: in progress, recently started, study paused due to unexplained illness. Restarted in Europe, still on hold in the US.​
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Earliest according to CDC: Doses can be delivered by Oct.​
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Earliest according to manufacturer: Doses available by the end of 2020.​


Johnson & Johnson / Beth Israel

Type: altered adenovirus (the one they used for an Ebola vaccine) [1 dose, only refrigeration to store]​
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Warp Speed: $456M (+$1B if proven successful for 100M doses)​
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Phase 3: just started, but will use a much larger test group (60k people), could be done by the end of 2020, enrollment now on a temporary pause due to one subject's unexplained illness​
​
Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​
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Earliest according to manufacturer: Beginning of 2021. Plan to make a billion doses.​


Novavax

Type: sticking proteins on microscopic particles​
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Warp Speed: $1.6B​
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Phase 3: just started, could be done by the beginning of 2021​
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Earliest according to CDC: Nothing from CDC yet about this vaccine.​
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Earliest according to manufacturer: Plan to make 100M doses by 1st Q of 2021.​



Phase 3:

Final phase of trials. A large number of people are given either the vaccine or placebo, double blind​
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Wait to see if there are negative reactions to the vaccine. If there are, vaccine is scrubbed.​
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Wait to see how much more the vaccinated group is protected compared to the placebo. To be effective, people should be at least 50% more protected.​
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If early results show extraordinarily good results, then this Phase can end early, because it would be unethical to leave those who received the placebo to be unprotected by an effective vaccine – this is what leads to an “October vaccine,” which, is only a result of extraordinarily good results.​
​
An independent review board evaluates the effectiveness. The FDA will not approve (or, is not supposed to approve) a vaccine without the board's go-ahead.​
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In addition to governmental approval (or "fast-tracking"), the manufacturers themselves can decide not to release the vaccine until what they consider are appropriate evaluations are made. And, in fact, have pledged to "follow the science" and not release the vaccine until large trials and the science show that it is both safe and effective.​



In short, as Dr. Fauci has said, an October vaccine is not impossible, just very unlikely.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
oceanbreeze77 said:
bummer. I think that's 2/4 that are currently benched???
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It‘s not necessarily a bad thing. More proof that the process is being followed and no corners are being cut. They called this a “study pause” which is routine and normally wouldn’t be publicly disclosed as opposed to a “clinical hold” which is a regulatory requirement and would be disclosed publicly. The companies are being more transparent than usual to ensure the public has confidence in the process. Just more evidence that vaccine research can’t and shouldn‘t follow a political calendar.
 
O

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
It‘s not necessarily a bad thing. More proof that the process is being followed and no corners are being cut. They called this a “study pause” which is routine and normally wouldn’t be publicly disclosed as opposed to a “clinical hold” which is a regulatory requirement and would be disclosed publicly. The companies are being more transparent than usual to ensure the public has confidence in the process. Just more evidence that vaccine research can’t and shouldn‘t follow a political calendar.
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I know its a good thing they are taking all of the precautions and doing it right. Still a bummer that another trial had to pause.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
LUVMCO said:
She or he had valid concerns about giving the vaccine to her children.
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Natural concerns, not valid. The entirety of vaccine hesitancy springs out of misinformation and misplaced fear against a product that ultimately is hypercritically analyzed and approved by many, many, many independent and National health bodies as safe. Thank social media for driving a generation away from science. A child is exposed to millions of antigens in their everyday environment, but vaccine hesitancy places the blame squarely at the foot of one out of falsified fear spread over the last decade(s)... again thanks to social media and poor public science literacy.

There is an entire disease process that is well described in children (MIS-C) that is not captured simply by deaths. One that is already infinitely more common than true serious side effects from the billions of doses of many vaccines given worldwide.

A vaccine for children will be established as magnitudes times safer than rolling the dice with a child contracting the virus. But that will continue to be a hard uphill battle for a large segment of the population that is naturally (although not validly) vaccine hesitant.


I'd encourage anyone with natural concerns to seek more information from vaccine hesitancy clinics, which are typically offered in most major urban paediatric centres, to learn more from Peds ID docs rather than the internet.
 
TrainsOfDisney

TrainsOfDisney

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
It’s not selfish to not want to be locked down, I don’t think many people want that anyway, it is selfish to go to work or a party knowing you are infected or refusing to comply with requests for contact tracing. Stuff like that.
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I don’t think anybody anywhere wants to be locked down. I know I don’t.

I do think that some restrictions make sense right now. Somewhere between Florida and California would be ideal (which I think many southern states like Tennessee, Georgia, Carolinas, etc. are doing a good job of.).
 
Miss Bella

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
BrianLo said:
Natural concerns, not valid. The entirety of vaccine hesitancy springs out of misinformation and misplaced fear against a product that ultimately is hypercritically analyzed and approved by many, many, many independent and National health bodies as safe. Thank social media for driving a generation away from science. A child is exposed to millions of antigens in their everyday environment, but vaccine hesitancy places the blame squarely at the foot of one out of falsified fear spread over the last decade(s)... again thanks to social media and poor public science literacy.

There is an entire disease process that is well described in children (MIS-C) that is not captured simply by deaths. One that is already infinitely more common than true serious side effects from the billions of doses of many vaccines given worldwide.

A vaccine for children will be established as magnitudes times safer than rolling the dice with a child contracting the virus. But that will continue to be a hard uphill battle for a large segment of the population that is naturally (although not validly) vaccine hesitant.


I'd encourage anyone with natural concerns to seek more information from vaccine hesitancy clinics, which are typically offered in most major urban paediatric centres, to learn more from Peds ID docs rather than the internet.
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The vaccine has not been tested on children so I think the pp has valid concerns. I would hope most parents would.
 
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