GoofGoof
Premium Member
Things aren‘t pretty here already. The good part of what happened here is since we never got ahead of the virus and pushed cases down enough there’s no fear of a second wave...our first wave never ended.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
Do you think we won’t see a huge spike because of that? So it will stay pretty flat rather than a true second wave?
hopemax
Well-Known Member
Or you could just not presume that an explanation on why some people are responding a different way to this, is a personal attack on you. I find it offensive that you felt my post was an implication of your beliefs and not a continuation of the previous general statement that we are all coming at this from varying perspectives.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
There is a segment of the population that will never accept it as "safe and effective".
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
A rather large one at that...and it includes more than just anti-vaxxers.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Exactly. Restrictions should be based on the case numbers. A vaccine is just one tool to get those numbers down to where we can safely remove restrictions.
carolina_yankee
Well-Known Member
Interesting article in The NY Times on how the vaccine roll-out might play out. It's probably behind a paywall, so the gist is that there will be multiple options with varying degrees of effectiveness. Metaphorically, there could be a buffet of vaccines to choose from. Who gets which vaccine? Who decides? Will the vaccines lower number enough to ease restrictions? Will people trust them? Will people be willing to take them if the effectiveness isn't as high as they would like? The truly effective ones may be another year or more off.
2021 is expected to be a rocky year. I foresee distancing and masking until at least late next year, and possibly into 2022.
First, a Vaccine Approval. Then 'Chaos and Confusion'
GoofGoof
Premium Member
If you look at Europe they had a long period of much lower daily case numbers than the US after the end of their initial wave and are now seeing a spike that’s being called a second wave. Their spike is not much higher than we have been seeing regularly in parts of the US. I don’t think we can say one way or another if the US numbers will get better, worse or stay the same, just that we can’t have a second wave until the first one ends. In places like NY/NJ where there was a sustained lull in cases for an extended period of time I think it’s more likely to see something that parallels Europe. For the rest of the country its hard to spike in a second wave when the first wave never really ended. In other words the virus progression hasn‘t looked much like Europe all along so maybe its not the best basis for comparison.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Fair point, but if a vaccine is 85% effective and as few as 60% of people are willing to get it that gets us over 50% immune. No telling if that’s enough for true herd immunity but there’s a good chance it’s at least enough to snuff out the major outbreaks and dramatically slow spread. I also believe that once a hundred million+ people in the US and many millions more around the world get the vaccine without major issues many of the 40% left will come forward and get vaccinated. That assumes there aren’t any major issues. This isn’t as contagious as measles so we don’t need 95%+ vaccinated to snuff out the virus. The less people who are resistant up front the quicker this ends. Widespread resistance will just drag it out longer than it needs to go.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I’ve heard a lot of grumblings from people nervous about bringing kids to get vaccinated since the current trials don’t include children. I would assume if the vaccine gets emergency authorization soon they would then start a separate trial for children to prove it’s safe for them too. Could be the opposite of H1N1 where older Americans go first and kids don’t get vaccinated until several months later. Another reason it may take 6+ months to get everyone vaccinated.
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
There are a handful of places in middle America that are really seeing their first wave, it just took a long time to get here. Quite honestly, we probably could have avoided a peak this high. But that’s another thread.
True. At least Pfizer/BnT are trialing high school aged kids as part of phase 3, albeit late. As data for that group comes in they could be part of the wider rollout after front line workers and at-risk population.
I see you found this hysterical, @Willmark. I'd question your sense of humor but I'm sure it begins and ends with Larry the Cable Guy.
Oops! So many Wills. Where there's a will, there's a way for me to confuse the details.
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Willmark
Well-Known Member
I strongly “suggest” you check who you’re reacting to and issue your retraction.
I'm sorry, I had you blocked so I assumed it was you.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
As a parent, I hope this is the route they go...as long as the vaccine is tested and deemed safe for everyone, I fully intend on making sure we all get it.
seabreezept813
Well-Known Member
They won’t allow people to get it until it’s properly tested. Kids, those with certain health conditions, pregnant women, etc will likely need to wait longer. With children having the least severe side effects, I think normalcy could still return once adults can opt into the vaccine.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
My guess is for children the dose will be lower (possibly only 1 shot). Most kids have a very active immune system since they get sick all the time so it won’t take as much of a dose to elicit a response. As we get older our immune system slows (like everything else
). I’m thinking it would be kinda like the opposite of how they have an elderly version of the flu shot which is more potent to ensure an immune response. No clue if that actually has scientific backing just a theory or educated guess.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
Mix the vaccine into an elixir and sell it as a new beverage from the snowy depths of Hoth at Galaxy's Edge cantina bar, at $19.99 a pop. Guarantee this will vaccinate people much faster and more willingly
"Less than two weeks after Carnival Cruise Line said it would begin to restart cruises from PortMiami and Port Canaveral on Nov. 1, on Monday the company canceled all cruises through the end of November.
Cruises are currently banned in the U.S. through Oct. 31 after the White House blocked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from extending its “no-sail” order until February 2021 as it had planned. The industry first shut down passenger cruises in mid-March amid COVID-19 outbreaks on several ships.
Carnival Cruise Line was the only major cruise company that said it intended to restart limited cruising Nov. 1. All others previously canceled cruises through November. Competitors Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, MSC Cruises, Disney Cruise Line and Virgin Voyages are selling U.S. cruises for December."
Cruises are currently banned in the U.S. through Oct. 31 after the White House blocked the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from extending its “no-sail” order until February 2021 as it had planned. The industry first shut down passenger cruises in mid-March amid COVID-19 outbreaks on several ships.
Carnival Cruise Line was the only major cruise company that said it intended to restart limited cruising Nov. 1. All others previously canceled cruises through November. Competitors Royal Caribbean Group, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings, MSC Cruises, Disney Cruise Line and Virgin Voyages are selling U.S. cruises for December."
All this talk about hoping the vaccine is safe? How safe are we talking here? Like 99.997% safe? Because that's about how safe it is for people 0-19 to just get the virus. Vaccines, especially new ones, have a much higher potential to be statistically more dangerous. But to be "deemed safe" (whatever that means) by our never-failing-all-wise-government, to benefit Big Pharma, whose companies can't be sued if their product destroys a child's life and yet stand to make billions if they just "deem it safe", doesn't sound 99.997% safe to me. How safe is safe enough for kids? Because it almost sounds safer to just let kids get the virus.
But then I guess the kids might spread the disease to the rest of the population who has only a 99.96% survival rate if they are under age 70. And what good is a kid if we can't unselfishly inject him with a brand new vaccine with no studies on long term impact in order to protect the rest of the population which consists of adults who have not only lived their lives, but can make the choice as to whether that 99.96% survival rate is worth risking in order to re-join this dirty, germ filled society.
Of course it's the 70+ crowd we must attempt to keep alive forever, and only 94.6% of those will survive this horrific disease. In England and Wales, the average age of death to this deadly virus was 82... 82!!!! and to think, many of those might have lived to see 83 one day! Many of those were taken too soon, and if you don't inject this vaccine with unknown consequence into your children, another 82 year old might die needlessly. Of course the average age of death from all other causes in England and Wales is 81, which I guess is a silver lining to those deniers out there who just so happen to not want fear of this deadly virus to dictate their actions.
Please, tell us again how crazy and selfish we are for wanting to avoid putting a new vaccine into our children's bodies because the government "deems it safe".
Call me crazy for not wanting to put strange stuff with unknown side affects into my kids body in order to keep that deadly virus away, but with 99.997% odds, I guess I'll just have to roll the dice.
But then I guess the kids might spread the disease to the rest of the population who has only a 99.96% survival rate if they are under age 70. And what good is a kid if we can't unselfishly inject him with a brand new vaccine with no studies on long term impact in order to protect the rest of the population which consists of adults who have not only lived their lives, but can make the choice as to whether that 99.96% survival rate is worth risking in order to re-join this dirty, germ filled society.
Of course it's the 70+ crowd we must attempt to keep alive forever, and only 94.6% of those will survive this horrific disease. In England and Wales, the average age of death to this deadly virus was 82... 82!!!! and to think, many of those might have lived to see 83 one day! Many of those were taken too soon, and if you don't inject this vaccine with unknown consequence into your children, another 82 year old might die needlessly. Of course the average age of death from all other causes in England and Wales is 81, which I guess is a silver lining to those deniers out there who just so happen to not want fear of this deadly virus to dictate their actions.
Please, tell us again how crazy and selfish we are for wanting to avoid putting a new vaccine into our children's bodies because the government "deems it safe".
Call me crazy for not wanting to put strange stuff with unknown side affects into my kids body in order to keep that deadly virus away, but with 99.997% odds, I guess I'll just have to roll the dice.
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