Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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mmascari

Well-Known Member
MisterPenguin said:
I don't understand the continued use of 14 days of quarantine when we have tests available.
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Because do we really have tests readily available? With a fast enough result time? If it takes 4-5 days to get a test and 4-5 days for a result, 8-10 days total. The a 14 day quarantine isn't much more. Without any surprise billing too. Especially if you're just giving it a "best effort" and not really completely quarantine either way.

SamusAranX said:
Love this article. Very balanced and sobering take. The answers aren't easy. :(
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From the article:
Dr. Mina said mitigation generally aims for an R of just above one, while suppression aims for an R of below one.

Some epidemiologists and economists argue ramped-up testing could enable the economy to reopen safely without a vaccine. Mr. Romer estimates the U.S. could restore $1,000 in economic activity for every $10 spent on tests.
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I had been using "slow" vs "contain", but "mitigation" vs "suppression" fits the description too. As a country, we've mostly done the "mitigation".

The answers are easy. Not everyone likes them, and so there is trying to pick and choose which ones are done. But, as we see, it doesn't work unless you do all the stuff. Have to put in all the work. But, none of it is a hard question.

Jwink said:
Low tests. Low numbers.
Positivity rate 😬😬😬
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Remember, Positivity rate is a measure of how well the community spread is understood. With a rate that high, it's not understood and the case number is going to be incorrect and low.

GoofGoof said:
One reason this is so hard is there’s a guy who owns that bar. It’s his business and if it’s not open he could lose it. From his personal perspective keeping bars closed is a huge negative. That’s where the rub comes in between the best interest of individual businesses and the best interest of the overall economy. I do believe that it’s possible to get 80-90% of the economy open safely but not that 10-20% that includes businesses like clubs, bars, professional sports stadiums and other businesses relying on large group gatherings. It’s a tough pill to swallow if you are in one of those businesses. That’s why it’s not as easy as making decisions based on public health vs the economy. In some cases the decisions in favor of public health also help the economy.
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It's not a hard decision, it's an unpopular one, there's a difference. All of those clubs, bars, businesses relying on large group gatherings have financial records, pay taxes and payroll. If the public health need demands they all be closed for some amount of time, the answer is to just pay them to be closed. Pay the guy that owns the bar as if the government came in and exclusively reserved the entire place. Have him pay his workers as if they worked the hours, pay the suppliers for the product that would have been used. Pay them all as if they did the work, but require they stay home instead. As we don't want them competing in the market with others, just replacing the consumer purchaser with government to consume the supply. It still creates edge cases where not everyone does well. What about someone who only opened a bar last month? Or, even worse, the guy who was opening next month but hasn't yet? Or the guy thinking about opening. Somewhere there is a line, and people on the line are going to lose. But, it's not hard to make the line smaller and minimize the people, just unpopular.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
mmascari said:
It's not a hard decision, it's an unpopular one, there's a difference. All of those clubs, bars, businesses relying on large group gatherings have financial records, pay taxes and payroll. If the public health need demands they all be closed for some amount of time, the answer is to just pay them to be closed. Pay the guy that owns the bar as if the government came in and exclusively reserved the entire place. Have him pay his workers as if they worked the hours, pay the suppliers for the product that would have been used. Pay them all as if they did the work, but require they stay home instead. As we don't want them competing in the market with others, just replacing the consumer purchaser with government to consume the supply. It still creates edge cases where not everyone does well. What about someone who only opened a bar last month? Or, even worse, the guy who was opening next month but hasn't yet? Or the guy thinking about opening. Somewhere there is a line, and people on the line are going to lose. But, it's not hard to make the line smaller and minimize the people, just unpopular.
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I don’t disagree that the approach you describe is a good way to handle it, but there is strong resistance to that too. There’s a lot of resistance to even extending unemployment benefits let alone bailing out small businesses. I agree that if we can safely get 90% of the economy going then it’s acceptable for the government to carry the 10% that are left. It’s in everyone’s best interest. I think the main resistance you would get is from the instant gratification crowd. They say they want those businesses open for the sake of the owners and the economy but it’s really more about wanting to do what they want to do.

I also think that if we had a better national plan to keep the virus more in check involving testing and tracing and education of consumers we would be in a much better place from both a public health standpoint and economically. Instead we get political rhetoric, Covid denial, deep state conspiracies and pushing drugs that are proven to be ineffective. It’s sad that we are in the place we are right now. Not all that shocking, but still sad. There’s still time to make up for lost time and do better. I just don’t think the plan should be give up now and just hope for a vaccine. It almost seems that is the approach some would prefer.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
mmascari said:
From the article:
Dr. Mina said mitigation generally aims for an R of just above one, while suppression aims for an R of below one.

Some epidemiologists and economists argue ramped-up testing could enable the economy to reopen safely without a vaccine. Mr. Romer estimates the U.S. could restore $1,000 in economic activity for every $10 spent on tests.
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I just wanted to highlight how important this point is. We had some discussions here about what plan B should be if a vaccine never pans out. We could get to a reopened economy without a vaccine if we had a large enough investment in testing and just as importantly public buy in. We can’t have a portion of the population believing that we are doing too much testing already. Everyone has to buy in. We seem to have gotten mostly there on masks. Even though there are a large number of people who still doubt masks are effective most have agreed to wear them when required in order to be able to go to a store or a doctors appointment or to WDW.
 
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mellyf

Active Member
disneygeek90 said:
A Seminole county high school has a confirmed case, families of the students that were in close contact have been notified. I'm not really sure how people expected school to go well.
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Honestly, I'm not sure most people care if it goes well. They either think it's not going to happen to their kid, or they're keeping their kid out. School staff is not an area of concern for most people.

I should add that I teach upper elementary. We started back this week. My students have been amazing with their masks. I have a couple that struggle, but they do well with reminders. :) They're also really working hard at trying to be mindful of social distancing when we go outside for our mask breaks. I love being with my students, and I know they're happy to be back. I have almost half that are remote, so we're able to be spaced far enough apart in class. It's sad too though, because usually the first week is about scavenger hunts and getting to know our classmates, and working in small groups to build teams. Yes, we're doing those things in different ways, but it's not the same.
 
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Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
Touchdown said:
Do you know what shingles is?

there is no reinfection risk with chicken pox because it never leaves your body. That virus is a member of the Herpes family, and herpes, my friend, is forever 😉.
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I've had shingles twice already and it's no fun - especially when you have an outbreak on Christmas Day. Luckily, I caught it early both times and kept it under control with antivirals.
 
Castmbr

Castmbr

Active Member
Kevin_W said:
I live near Ohio State, so this made local news. Not too much different than other campuses, sadly. But I'm glad to see the University taking action. Thousands/tens of thousands of students are paying good money for an education, their right to that education shouldn't be taken away by a few that cannot follow the rules.

www.forbes.com

Ohio State University Suspends 228 Students For Violating Covid-19 Guidelines

As Covid-19 cases continue to increase nationwide, colleges and universities have had to make difficult decisions about the fall semester.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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Obey or the authoritarians will pounce
 
Castmbr

Castmbr

Active Member
IMG_3270.JPG
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Kevin_W said:
Woah, that's funny! I haven't seen anything like that on this thread! :rolleyes:

Checking the math - 0.02% of the US population would be 60,000 dead, or about 1/3 the amount already killed by the disease in the US. There are a range of mortality projections, but the low end of those projections is 5-10x higher than that.
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Funny how accounts get banned and “new” accounts pop up that only post in Covid threads. :rolleyes:
 
jmp85

jmp85

Well-Known Member
Testing Data for State from previous day

Total FL Residents Tested: 58,143
Positive: 3,327
Negative: 54,816

Percent Positive: 5.72 %
 
Castmbr

Castmbr

Active Member
Kevin_W said:
Woah, that's funny! I haven't seen anything like that on this thread! :rolleyes:

Checking the math - 0.02% of the US population would be 60,000 dead, or about 1/3 the amount already killed by the disease in the US. There are a range of mortality projections, but the low end of those projections is 5-10x higher than that.
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I can see that the very sensitive still have no sense of humor. I consider this forum just above twitter , not quite 6 feet under but 3 feet under.
 
Kevin_W

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
GoofGoof said:
Funny how accounts get banned and “new” accounts pop up that only post in Covid threads. :rolleyes:
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Yep, just checked the post history.
Castmbr said:
I can see that the very sensitive still have no sense of humor. I consider this forum just above twitter , not quite 6 feet under but 3 feet under.
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So why make an account a month ago just to post in this and similar thread, then?
 
Castmbr

Castmbr

Active Member
Kevin_W said:
So why make an account a month ago just to post in this and similar thread, then?
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Thanks Pedigree Kevin :rolleyes:

' Best way to learn and understand how the other side thinks is to jump into the cesspool sometimes. I am intrigued at what goes on here especially when a differing opinion is expressed.

After hearing that most of my dept was on the furlough chopping block, I though "Maybe some of these forums might have decent information" ....LOL. Just thirsty drama in an echo chamber.
 
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