On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

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pheneix

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I've been giving consideration to what could go right for Disney on earnings day tomorrow vs the obvious catastrophes. And I do see a few ways they can avoid a total stock collapse.

One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Theme parks division.... Okay, they lost more money than we think. Almost certain. There's nothing good there. One could imagine that consumer products outside the parks has done kinda sorta okay tho?

Media Networks at Disney could be a bright spot. I've read some Wall St critters expecting less of a crash on the bottom line than hyped. Remember that Disney enjoys nosebleed carriage fees for ESPN that no one else has. The advertising market is absolutely crap. We know live events were knee capped. I will want to see how more "routine programming" fared selling ad time. They have the election to look forward to, at least.

Movie studio? Meh. They probably are profitable off legacy licensing revs. Everything else was non-existent.

In truth, Disney is probably getting their face ripped off tomorrow. They've been hiding skeletons in their closet not discussed here. Some of those gotta come out even against good news.

Either way, worth giving consideration to the above and a chance that Disney's world doesn't end tomorrow.
 
D

DVCakaCarlF

Well-Known Member
pheneix said:
I've been giving consideration to what could go right for Disney on earnings day tomorrow vs the obvious catastrophes. And I do see a few ways they can avoid a total stock collapse.

One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Theme parks division.... Okay, they lost more money than we think. Almost certain. There's nothing good there. One could imagine that consumer products outside the parks has done kinda sorta okay tho?

Media Networks at Disney could be a bright spot. I've read some Wall St critters expecting less of a crash on the bottom line than hyped. Remember that Disney enjoys nosebleed carriage fees for ESPN that no one else has. The advertising market is absolutely crap. We know live events were knee capped. I will want to see how more "routine programming" fared selling ad time. They have the election to look forward to, at least.

Movie studio? Meh. They probably are profitable off legacy licensing revs. Everything else was non-existent.

In truth, Disney is probably getting their face ripped off tomorrow. They've been hiding skeletons in their closet not discussed here. Some of those gotta come out even against good news.

Either way, worth giving consideration to the above and a chance that Disney's world doesn't end tomorrow.
Click to expand...
Skeletons being what? Personal or financial?
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
pheneix said:
I've been giving consideration to what could go right for Disney on earnings day tomorrow vs the obvious catastrophes. And I do see a few ways they can avoid a total stock collapse.

One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Theme parks division.... Okay, they lost more money than we think. Almost certain. There's nothing good there. One could imagine that consumer products outside the parks has done kinda sorta okay tho?

Media Networks at Disney could be a bright spot. I've read some Wall St critters expecting less of a crash on the bottom line than hyped. Remember that Disney enjoys nosebleed carriage fees for ESPN that no one else has. The advertising market is absolutely crap. We know live events were knee capped. I will want to see how more "routine programming" fared selling ad time. They have the election to look forward to, at least.

Movie studio? Meh. They probably are profitable off legacy licensing revs. Everything else was non-existent.

In truth, Disney is probably getting their face ripped off tomorrow. They've been hiding skeletons in their closet not discussed here. Some of those gotta come out even against good news.

Either way, worth giving consideration to the above and a chance that Disney's world doesn't end tomorrow.
Click to expand...
I think the Fed has proven that stock price has nothing to do with the operation of the businesses 😂
 
WDW Pro

WDW Pro

Well-Known Member
pheneix said:
I've been giving consideration to what could go right for Disney on earnings day tomorrow vs the obvious catastrophes. And I do see a few ways they can avoid a total stock collapse.

One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Theme parks division.... Okay, they lost more money than we think. Almost certain. There's nothing good there. One could imagine that consumer products outside the parks has done kinda sorta okay tho?

Media Networks at Disney could be a bright spot. I've read some Wall St critters expecting less of a crash on the bottom line than hyped. Remember that Disney enjoys nosebleed carriage fees for ESPN that no one else has. The advertising market is absolutely crap. We know live events were knee capped. I will want to see how more "routine programming" fared selling ad time. They have the election to look forward to, at least.

Movie studio? Meh. They probably are profitable off legacy licensing revs. Everything else was non-existent.

In truth, Disney is probably getting their face ripped off tomorrow. They've been hiding skeletons in their closet not discussed here. Some of those gotta come out even against good news.

Either way, worth giving consideration to the above and a chance that Disney's world doesn't end tomorrow.
Click to expand...

It's going to be nightmare fuel with a cherry and pixie dust dusting.
 
yaksplat

yaksplat

Well-Known Member
pheneix said:
I've been giving consideration to what could go right for Disney on earnings day tomorrow vs the obvious catastrophes. And I do see a few ways they can avoid a total stock collapse.

One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Theme parks division.... Okay, they lost more money than we think. Almost certain. There's nothing good there. One could imagine that consumer products outside the parks has done kinda sorta okay tho?

Media Networks at Disney could be a bright spot. I've read some Wall St critters expecting less of a crash on the bottom line than hyped. Remember that Disney enjoys nosebleed carriage fees for ESPN that no one else has. The advertising market is absolutely crap. We know live events were knee capped. I will want to see how more "routine programming" fared selling ad time. They have the election to look forward to, at least.

Movie studio? Meh. They probably are profitable off legacy licensing revs. Everything else was non-existent.

In truth, Disney is probably getting their face ripped off tomorrow. They've been hiding skeletons in their closet not discussed here. Some of those gotta come out even against good news.

Either way, worth giving consideration to the above and a chance that Disney's world doesn't end tomorrow.
Click to expand...
And that summed up why I dumped all of my disney stock a few weeks ago. I couldn't see any way there would be positive news. Disney used to be one of my go to stocks to hold, but not anymore. I've dumped about 1000 shares this year.
 
D

DVCakaCarlF

Well-Known Member
yaksplat said:
And that summed up why I dumped all of my disney stock a few weeks ago. I couldn't see any way there would be positive news. Disney used to be one of my go to stocks to hold, but not anymore. I've dumped about 1000 shares this year.
Click to expand...
Sounds like something Ron Swanson would say.
 
Notes from Neverland

Notes from Neverland

Well-Known Member
Not a financial analyst by any means, but watching the stock price will be fascinating. Disney's revenue numbers will be abysmal, but who doesn't expect them to rebound once there's any kind of return to normalcy?
 
B

brianstl

Well-Known Member
Notes from Neverland said:
Not a financial analyst by any means, but watching the stock price will be fascinating. Disney's revenue numbers will be abysmal, but who doesn't expect them to rebound once there's any kind of return to normalcy?
Click to expand...
Actually, much if not all of this miserable past quarter is already priced in. The thing that could cause a big drop is guidance that is worse than investors are expecting or if the skeletons that @pheneix has referred to tumble out of the closet.
 
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DVCakaCarlF

Well-Known Member
brianstl said:
Actually, much if not all of this miserable past quarter is already priced in. The thing that could cause a big drop is guidance that is worse than investors are expecting or the skeletons that @pheneix has referred to tumble out of the closet.
Click to expand...
I would agree...the market has already priced in any news from tomorrow. Furthermore, it has already considered the “rebound.”
 
flynnibus

flynnibus

Premium Member
pheneix said:
One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.
Click to expand...

it was hysterical last quarter how just talk about D+ positivity pretty much killed any 'ESPN is sinking the company' talk... all while the fundamentals of what ESPNs transformation and it's role in the business hadn't changed a bit.

With so much uncertainty right now.. you gotta think Disney stays conservative on projecting any recovery stuff for next quarter.
 
P

pheneix

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
DVCakaCarlF said:
I would agree...the market has already priced in any news from tomorrow. Furthermore, it has already considered the “rebound.”
Click to expand...

Further agree. The stock price reflects a sentiment that "things will be okay" and the company will emerge unscathed. That is totally insane but it is probably gonna be the opinion that rules the day. There's also a ton of global government stimulus money that's keeping the markets afloat. Like a ton a ton.

We've definitely discussed the grim on here because its real and we know the world has changed forever. The business world is operating on a lie that things will "come back." Even consumer advertising has a kind of brow beating message saying it.

But you know what? A ton of people are about to lose their jobs in Florida. Not just the lousy people too. All this talk on how the stock price is saved is predicated on the broken backs of working people. Bob Iger's "legacy" can only be salvaged by thousands losing their livelihoods. This is a disgrace. This company is facing an end to its independent existence. It ends with an inevitable absorption into larger corporate beasts. What a disgrace of a legacy to leave behind. A bright side? Most of what we care about at the "Disney" we love will be better off.

I shoulda saved that rant for a sequel thread. Oh well.
 

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