On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[DVCakaCarlF]

Gambling with no risk...which is bogus

In this instance, the stimulus is needed.

 

[tirian]

That is a really good summary. Heard tidbits over the years - but never saw the backstory as laid out.

Very informative. I’m such a “negative” (or perceived as such) to insiders because of the three bold letters...but this is pretty informative. Thank you.

Yeah, I figured it was a good idea to explain why so many people came here.

I forgot to mention Eddie Soto himself used to freely and openly converse on the boards; he just stayed away from anything which might cross NDAs. That’s how many insiders were involved.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

He already quit and slid down the back dwarf elevator once this year...weren’t you on the google that day?

Disney gonna rake profit anytime soon? Reasons for him to hang around?

I’m kidding...but maybe not...

 

[Brer Oswald]

@pheneix Dont mean to press you too much, but about that sequel thread...is that coming tomorrow? Or do you not have the clearance to talk about it?

 

[pheneix]

Any guesses on the timing of this? This week? This month? @pheneix

They'll probably begin immediately after they announce the actions they intend to take. Usually these things come in waves afterward.

I hope they offer a voluntary separation option before an involuntary sacking. Those tend to benefit salaried jobs higher up the food chain more than the front lines. I hope they are offering options for a dignified exit. What does my gut say? It's not gonna be that nice.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

In this instance, the stimulus is needed.

In this case...so when the stimulus is wearing off and they “take their medicine”...Disney will drop to $40 a share where it should be based on its decline in revenue/performance?

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

In this case...so when the stimulus is wearing off and they “take their medicine”...Disney will drop to $40 a share where it should be based on its decline in revenue/performance?

Is that when they are acquired?

 

[brianstl]

He already quit and slid down the back dwarf elevator once this year...weren’t you on the google that day?

Disney gonna rake profit anytime soon? Reasons for him to hang around?

I’m kidding...but maybe not...

If we mean Iger pulled a PR stunt where he tried to put himself in a position where he could avoid all blame if his house fell apart while still being in position to take credit if the people left behind managed to right the ship? Then yes, he already quit.

 

[DVCakaCarlF]

He already quit and slid down the back dwarf elevator once this year...weren’t you on the google that day?

Disney gonna rake profit anytime soon? Reasons for him to hang around?

I’m kidding...but maybe not...

“Can’t get fired if you quit first! Jokes on you @realBobChapek” - @TheRealBobIger

 

[BaconPancakes]

Does anyone else feel like calling in sick tomorrow to be able to read every page of his new thread in real time?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is that when they are acquired?

...I didn’t know Tim Cook was that bored?

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Does anyone else feel like calling in sick tomorrow to be able to read every page of his new thread in real time?

I mean, 430pm EST is the time to be here. Not much can really happen before then (I believe).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Does anyone else feel like calling in sick tomorrow to be able to read every page of his new thread in real time?

I do this while I’m working...including now

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

@pheneix Dont mean to press you too much, but about that sequel thread...is that coming tomorrow? Or do you not have the clearance to talk about it?

Patience, my friend...in time he will seek you out...and when he does, you must bring him before me...

 

[BaconPancakes]

I do this while I’m working...including now

Who am am I kidding, same...

 

[UNCgolf]

it was hysterical last quarter how just talk about D+ positivity pretty much killed any 'ESPN is sinking the company' talk... all while the fundamentals of what ESPNs transformation and it's role in the business hadn't changed a bit.

With so much uncertainty right now.. you gotta think Disney stays conservative on projecting any recovery stuff for next quarter.

ESPN sinking the company was also nonsensical talk because all indications are it remained one of the (and possibly the) most profitable sections of the entire company. It just wasn't as insanely profitable as it was 10 years ago.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Speaking of skeletons, @pheneix have you been following the developments at Ubisoft?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

That's neat. I wouldn't mind working at UCF for a few years to be close to the parks, but they dont seem to ever need profs with my background. Looks like a fun school though.

It's super late right now, and I caught your avatar out of the side of my glasses...and thought there was a huge spider crawling up my monitor!

 

[tirian]

I've been giving consideration to what could go right for Disney on earnings day tomorrow vs the obvious catastrophes. And I do see a few ways they can avoid a total stock collapse.

One thing Disney absolutely needs is knockout D+ and Hulu subscriber growth. Disney announced back in May that D+ had around 51 million subs. Say they absolutely killed it and are close to 80 million subscribers. Hulu likewise experiences the same growth, but sorry, I don't recall their sub numbers off hand. With this momentum they can definitely abate some of the pain from the parks. Because of the value that Wall St places on subscriber businesses that lose lots of money, this could even save the stock. Even while DTC is losing tons of money, the revenue still good cash in the till.

Disney's cash position could also be better than expected. They raised $11 billion in debt since the last earnings report. Not inconceivable they have a better cash/cash equivalents position than we speculate. Perhaps north of $12 billion. The caveat here is that they are burning thru this cash at an astonishing rate. This is not in question. "When does the cash burn end?" That's the first question. "Is it worth continuing to loan money to this company if they can't answer the cash burn question?" is the second one.

Theme parks division.... Okay, they lost more money than we think. Almost certain. There's nothing good there. One could imagine that consumer products outside the parks has done kinda sorta okay tho?

Media Networks at Disney could be a bright spot. I've read some Wall St critters expecting less of a crash on the bottom line than hyped. Remember that Disney enjoys nosebleed carriage fees for ESPN that no one else has. The advertising market is absolutely crap. We know live events were knee capped. I will want to see how more "routine programming" fared selling ad time. They have the election to look forward to, at least.

Movie studio? Meh. They probably are profitable off legacy licensing revs. Everything else was non-existent.

In truth, Disney is probably getting their face ripped off tomorrow. They've been hiding skeletons in their closet not discussed here. Some of those gotta come out even against good news.

Either way, worth giving consideration to the above and a chance that Disney's world doesn't end tomorrow.

I think the Fed has proven that stock price has nothing to do with the operation of the businesses

It's going to be nightmare fuel with a cherry and pixie dust dusting.

Wall Street is obsessed with streaming services. If Disney+ posts moderate growth, investors will be happy.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Wall Street is obsessed with streaming services. If Disney+ posts moderate growth, investors will be happy.

I’ll say it again:

Wall Street is obsessed with not really losing a dime like they did during the housing crash...so the fed slid them $3,700,000,000,000 in a white envelope in an alley.

That’s how you “make it go away”

Don’t think D+ has much to do with it. The math has been stated on that for years. It’s $7 a pop...not like they act like they made $6,000,000,000 in the quarter off it.