Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[hpyhnt 1000]

can you fathom how many new rides, and how many amazing refurbs, could have been funded for three billion dollars?

THIS, times, oh I don't know... lets say 3 billion.

Software Maintenance usually checks in around 20% of the purchase price each year.

Since you cited a specific percentage, I'm going to assume you're reasonably knowledgeable about these sort of things and use it for some calculations. If NGE has reached the $3 billion price mark, 20% would equal $600 million in maintenance costs each year, which I assume is more or less bug fixes and optimzation/efficency (i.e.: no new software or hardware additions).

That holding true, and ignoring inflation, that means maintenance would run:

After 1 year: $600 million
After 3 years: $1.8 billion
After 10 years: $6 billion
(and so on...)

And I assume that as a system ages it would only get more expensive to maintain, not to mention inevitably it would need updates, which means these figures would be on the low side. Point is, we have all been looking at the initial amount, but if the 20% maintenance figure is correct its the upkeep thats even more of a bottomless pit. Heck, be optimistic and halve the figure to 10% - its still an absurd amount!

***EDIT: As noted below by devoy1701, the figures for maintenance would probably be lower.

 

[asianway]

THIS, times, oh I don't know... lets say 3 billion.



Since you cited a specific percentage, I'm going to assume you're reasonably knowledgeable about these sort of things and use it for some calculations. If NGE has reached the $3 billion price mark, 20% would equal $600 million in maintenance costs each year, which I assume is more or less bug fixes and optimzation/efficency (i.e.: no new software or hardware additions).

That holding true, and ignoring inflation, that means maintenance would run:

After 1 year: $600 million
After 3 years: $1.8 billion
After 10 years: $6 billion
(and so on...)

And I assume that as a system ages it would only get more expensive to maintain, not to mention inevitably it would need updates, which means these figures would be on the low side. Point is, we have all been looking at the initial amount, but if the 20% maintenance figure is correct its the upkeep thats even more of a bottomless pit. Heck, be optimistic and halve the figure to 10% - its still an absurd amount!

20% is accurate, but is only to keep the software you have running. Upgrade? Stroke another check

Hardware is a completely different beast and budget entirely.

PS: Did someone hack some users accounts? Because Im seeing some negativity on this thread from people I never thought Id see it from...

 

[sweetpee_1993]

THIS, times, oh I don't know... lets say 3 billion.



Since you cited a specific percentage, I'm going to assume you're reasonably knowledgeable about these sort of things and use it for some calculations. If NGE has reached the $3 billion price mark, 20% would equal $600 million in maintenance costs each year, which I assume is more or less bug fixes and optimzation/efficency (i.e.: no new software or hardware additions).

That holding true, and ignoring inflation, that means maintenance would run:

After 1 year: $600 million
After 3 years: $1.8 billion
After 10 years: $6 billion
(and so on...)

And I assume that as a system ages it would only get more expensive to maintain, not to mention inevitably it would need updates, which means these figures would be on the low side. Point is, we have all been looking at the initial amount, but if the 20% maintenance figure is correct its the upkeep thats even more of a bottomless pit. Heck, be optimistic and halve the figure to 10% - its still an absurd amount!

Your post frightens me. I think I just threw up a little.

 

[devoy1701]

THIS, times, oh I don't know... lets say 3 billion.



Since you cited a specific percentage, I'm going to assume you're reasonably knowledgeable about these sort of things and use it for some calculations. If NGE has reached the $3 billion price mark, 20% would equal $600 million in maintenance costs each year, which I assume is more or less bug fixes (i.e.: no new software or hardware additions).

That holding true, and ignoring inflation, that means maintenance would run:

After 1 year: $600 million
After 3 years: $1.8 billion
After 10 years: $6 billion

And I assume that as a system ages it would only get more expensive to maintain, not to mention inevitably it would need updates, which means these figures would be on the low side. Point is, we have all been looking at the initial amount, but if the 20% maintenance figure is correct its the upkeep thats even more of a bottomless pit. Heck, be optimistic and halve the figure to 10% - its still an absurd amount!

Keep in mind that I was referring to the software itself. In the space I work in (which is strictly the software itself), Software makes up about 50% of the total cost of implementing a new system. The rest of those costs are for implementing the rollout, consulting, support, infrastructure, and maintenance. (But you might be on the money when you factor in overhead and hardware costs.)

So half your numbers, but you get the idea. $300M a year for maintaining the software infrastructure. That's the budget of an E-Ticket each year.

To hone in on some of the comments in this thread, I don't want to downplay how much benefit Disney will get from NexGen IF they implement it correctly AND it works. The amount of data they should be able to mine about their guests will be priceless to them. It's a Sales and Marketing wet dream! The issue I take is that this project is soaking up ALL of TDOs funds...and future projects that TRULY would add to the experience we as guests receive are being put on hold and/or shelved as this Marketing Project bleeds cost overruns, not to mention ticket prices are still going up and offerings are still diminishing...all to help fund this poorly managed initiative. Because of it, the WDW experience that went stale 5 years ago is STILL going to be rotting for the foreseeable future. And the only benefit that guests will see is a rubber armband that can help us spend our money about 5 seconds faster than before along with some interactive queues...

To put it in perspective... $1.1B (I think that's accurate) bought Disneyland Resort a new nighttime water show, a new themed entrance to DCA, a remarkable new Carsland and great E-Ticket, and a 20% boost in attendance. $3B+ has bought Disney World Armbands...

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

20% is accurate, but is only to keep the software you have running. Upgrade? Stroke another check

Hardware is a completely different beast and budget entirely.

PS: Did someone hack some users accounts? Because Im seeing some negativity on this thread from people I never thought Id see it from...

No. This Next Gen thing is utterly revolting and people who normally aren't negative now are, because instead of attractions, upgrades, new stuff, cool stuff... we're getting datamined.

 

[asianway]

No. This Next Gen thing is utterly revolting and people who normally aren't negative now are, because instead of attractions, upgrades, new stuff, cool stuff... we're getting datamined.

Ive been waiting waiting for people to join me in the doom n' gloom clubhouse. Drinks are on me y'all.

 

[hpyhnt 1000]

Keep in mind that I was referring to the software itself. In the space I work in (which is strictly the software itself), Software makes up about 50% of the total value of the cost of implementing a new system. The rest of those costs are for implementing the rollout, consulting, support, infrastructure, and maintenance. (But you might be on the money when you factor in overhead and hardware costs.)

Thanks for clarifying. I've added a note in my original post reflecting your additional remarks.

So half your numbers, but you get the idea. $300M a year for maintaining the software infrastructure. That's the budget of an E-Ticket each year.

An E-ticket? At Universal $300 million would equate to a new LAND (but that gets into yet more issues with the downward spiral or TWDC and Parks and Resorts).

 

[sweetpee_1993]

Ive been waiting waiting for people to join me in the doom n' gloom clubhouse. Drinks are on me y'all.

Make mine a double.

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

Ive been waiting waiting for people to join me in the doom n' gloom clubhouse. Drinks are on me y'all.

Might have to take you up on that offer... I think in order to stomach the news Spirits gonna drop on us, we might need some booze in our systems.

 

[fractal]

And why in he*l would they do this at WDW first? Why pick the biggest resort to experiment on? Would it not have made more sense to try this at say Hong Kong Disneyland first at a fraction of the cost? You can get all the bugs worked out and if it is a complete failure it doesn't cost the company $billions.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I am IT guy for a large fortune 500 company.... the idea and thoughts behind the RFID and NextGen "stuff" to me is brilliant...and Disney is ahead of the game (compared to other theme parks) trying to pull this off. Because of this...they are learning as they go because they have nothing to go by in some regards.

I have no doubt, the RFID and NextGen can be a MAJOR hit with fans and for Disney's bank account... IF and only IF it is designed well, implemented well, supported well, and constantly updated as needed. They CAN do this... and they CAN make a big splash in to Disney innovation with this whole concept... it just needs the right management behind it and support from the CM's and fans to give it a shot.

Too many poo-poo'd on it because of cost right from the beginning thinking it was "taking away from designing new attractions" etc. when in some ways this IS an attraction in and of itself.

No, a lot of us Pooh-Pooh'd it because we know Disney's managements culture and history. They are not known for designing this well, implementing it well, supporting it well or constantly updating things. They're known for NOT doing these and and look at things from a quarterly financial model. They're known for "how little can I spend on this."

 

[dreamfinder]

THIS, times, oh I don't know... lets say 3 billion.



Since you cited a specific percentage, I'm going to assume you're reasonably knowledgeable about these sort of things and use it for some calculations. If NGE has reached the $3 billion price mark, 20% would equal $600 million in maintenance costs each year, which I assume is more or less bug fixes and optimzation/efficency (i.e.: no new software or hardware additions).

That holding true, and ignoring inflation, that means maintenance would run:

After 1 year: $600 million
After 3 years: $1.8 billion
After 10 years: $6 billion
(and so on...)

And I assume that as a system ages it would only get more expensive to maintain, not to mention inevitably it would need updates, which means these figures would be on the low side. Point is, we have all been looking at the initial amount, but if the 20% maintenance figure is correct its the upkeep thats even more of a bottomless pit. Heck, be optimistic and halve the figure to 10% - its still an absurd amount!

***EDIT: As noted below by devoy1701, the figures for maintenance would probably be lower.

Keep in mind that I was referring to the software itself. In the space I work in (which is strictly the software itself), Software makes up about 50% of the total cost of implementing a new system. The rest of those costs are for implementing the rollout, consulting, support, infrastructure, and maintenance. (But you might be on the money when you factor in overhead and hardware costs.)

So half your numbers, but you get the idea. $300M a year for maintaining the software infrastructure. That's the budget of an E-Ticket each year.

To hone in on some of the comments in this thread, I don't want to downplay how much benefit Disney will get from NexGen IF they implement it correctly AND it works. The amount of data they should be able to mine about their guests will be priceless to them. It's a Sales and Marketing wet dream! The issue I take is that this project is soaking up ALL of TDOs funds...and future projects that TRULY would add to the experience we as guests receive are being put on hold and/or shelved as this Marketing Project bleeds cost overruns, not to mention ticket prices are still going up and offerings are still diminishing...all to help fund this poorly managed initiative. Because of it, the WDW experience that went stale 5 years ago is STILL going to be rotting for the foreseeable future. And the only benefit that guests will see is a rubber armband that can help us spend our money about 5 seconds faster than before along with some interactive queues...

To put it in perspective... $1.1B (I think that's accurate) bought Disneyland Resort a new nighttime water show, a new themed entrance to DCA, a remarkable new Carsland and great E-Ticket, and a 20% boost in attendance. $3B+ has bought Disney World Armbands...

But to take this even further, even if Software made up 50% of the cost, of this reported 3 Billion, how much of that was/is being spent on R&D and not actual production code? Not to downplay the overall cost, but if production code only ends up running $200 Million, that 20% is a lot more palatable. (I'm speaking as someone who deals mostly with off the shelf solutions, not much custom code)

Beyond that, it still will keep hemorrhaging money. This has progressed well past a LightMagic level fiasco, and they need to get it to do at least something. Although the prospect of not having PP+ be able to take my picture as I walk down Main Street from 300 yds away and tag it using my MagicBand and a targeted RFID receiver is almost tragic...

 

[WDWFanDave]

Might have to take you up on that offer... I think in order to stomach the news Spirits gonna drop on us, we might need some booze in our systems.

Makes me think of Dudley Moore in Arthur...

Bring me a drink every 15 minutes until I pass out, then every half hour! (or something to that effect...it's been a long time since I watched that one...)

I think we're gonna need all the help we can get to swim through the mess that's ahead.

 

[PhotoDave219]

If Mr. Spirit has the money for Golden Oak's then he should pick up a tab once in while :lol

No Spirit bought a Caribbean Island. Its where his private yachts (The Dream and Wonder) will stop by to drop off medicinal supplies (RUM) and nurses.

 

[WDWDad13]

and the poo-poo'ing continues lol

ya know... a lot of people thought Disneyland was a disaster initially too

 

[Soarin' Over Pgh]

Makes me think of Dudley Moore in Arthur...

Bring me a drink every 15 minutes until I pass out, then every half hour! (or something to that effect...it's been a long time since I watched that one...)

I think we're gonna need all the help we can get to swim through the mess that's ahead.

This thread is seriously making me sad.


@WDW1974 please give us a glimmer of hope. Some tidbit of info. Please. Before we all drink ourselves to death.

 

[danlb_2000]

The next gen project brought this to mind, the 7 phases of an IT project....

Phase 1: Uncritical Acceptance
Phase 2: Wild enthusiasm
Phase 3: Dejected disillusionment
Phase 4: Total confusion
Phase 5: Search for the guilty
Phase 6: Punishment of the innocent
Phase 7: Promotion of nonparticipants

It sounds like we are somewhere between 3 and 4.

 

[crispy]

and the poo-poo'ing continues lol

ya know... a lot of people thought Disneyland was a disaster initially too

NGE ain't no Disneyland.

 

[RunnerEd]

Not that I find any joy in other's failures, but....

Quoted for complete and total AWESOMENESS!!!!!

 

[WDWDad13]

ya know its interesting... I had a conversation about this over lunch based on our employees at our company in our organization

new school v/s old school

this doesn't apply across the board but follow me here:
new school loves technology, change, and anything new
old school dislikes change and some new technology

new school likes innovation, changing up of attractions (even classic ones) to make more modern or even completely new
old school hates any change to a classic attraction and thinks most attractions should remain the same forever

the world is changing... people are changing... theme parks are changing... Disney is stepping out on a limb first for the RFID NextGen offerings... I truly believe they will get it right and it will pay dividends down the road.... and most of us will like it down the road too

for now...its going to be a struggle...complain all you want but it isn't going to change anything... also you don't have to use it if you don't want to