Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Analyst]

Are we ready for the King of rock and roll to return this weekend, and dominate the box office?

Stitch of course.

 

[Willmark]

That assumes that consumers want to become their own little film studios creating their own content for their own consumption, that in my opinion can't be assumed. By and large consumers want to consume, not create.

Now will we get to a point sometime in the future where we have a "Ready Player One" type of situation where everyone is in a virtual world making their own stuff, I dunno. But for at least the foreseeable future I don't see that happening, even with the advances in AI that are coming quick.

On an AI story for a second just to show its got a long way to go. I was just in a meeting today where a development team I work with was showing off the latest AI advancements they were working on. They asked AI to summarize a document, something it should easily do and has done for many generations, and the AI just spit out a dictionary full of random words, never summarizing the actual document even after rebuilding the language models. Its still very imperfect, it has a long way to go before its able to fully replace humans in many ways.

So I have no doubt that companies like Adobe are continuing to advance AI, and they will get to the point where it can create photos and even full length movies that are indistinguishable from something human created. But I come back to the question, will a majority of people want to do that for themselves, and I say for now probably not.

No doubt it’s imperfect, for now. The advance from 2018 in its accuracy to now is quite a leap, let alone the last two years.

Point being there is no going back, AI isn’t going to get “worse” it’s only going to improve in its abilities and results.

Now should this happen? Different story there.

As it relates to Disney. Take a look at the hand drawn animation thread. Not sure who said it but (paraphrasing) “the institutional knowledge for 2d animation isn’t there anymore.”

Doesn’t need to be.

Disney own the IP. Up load it to whatever they are using for AI (if they haven’t already done so) and with enough prompts and tweaks to the style they are configured for it.

Obviously not ready for a full length. Animated feature, yet. But again this isn’t decades away nor is it likely years with the pace of change happening.

 

[Disney Irish]

No doubt it’s imperfect, for now. The advance from 2018 in its accuracy to now is quite a leap, let alone the last two years.

Point being there is no going back, AI isn’t going to get “worse” it’s only going to improve in its abilities and results.

Now should this happen? Different story there.

As it relates to Disney. Take a look at the hand drawn animation thread. Not sure who said it but (paraphrasing) “the institutional knowledge for 2d animation isn’t there anymore.”

Doesn’t need to be.

Disney own the IP. Up load it to whatever they are using for AI (if they haven’t already done so) and with enough prompts and tweaks to the style they are configured for it.

Obviously not ready for a full length. Animated feature, yet. But again this isn’t decades away nor is it likely years with the pace of change happening.

As I mentioned in previous posts and threads, its a tool just like any other that an artist may use from their toolbox. But a full wide scale replacement of a lot of the industry as your previous post alluded to, not likely. Sure some jobs will be lost, but many of those would have been lost by some other technological advancement if not AI. And sure it'll be used to replace industry knowledge that is no longer available, but not replace entire divisions of people. Its a tool, and that is how it should be seen.

But this idea that consumers are going to want to become content creators and drive the entertainment industry out of business as you allude to, doubt it. As mentioned consumers by and large aren't wanting to become creators. The 25 year old in Iowa isn't suddenly wanting to be a filmmaker just because AI tools are now or soon will be better able to make believable content. If they didn't want to become a creator before, AI isn't just suddenly going make them desire that. So there is still a need for a Disney and other studios, and will likely be for many decades to come in my opinion. Until we get a "Ready Player One" virtual room where we all plug into everyday.

At one point in the last decade I feared AI and its impact on society, but having used it in its many forms I can say that fear went away real quick. Its not replacing my job at all before I retire in the next 15 years, its only going to make my job easier. And I suspect the same for many industries over the next 15-20 years, it'll just make more jobs easier not replace them.

 

[Agent H]

As I mentioned in previous posts and threads, its a tool just like any other that an artist may use from their toolbox. But a full wide scale replacement of a lot of the industry as your previous post alluded to, not likely. Sure some jobs will be lost, but many of those would have been lost by some other technological advancement if not AI. And sure it'll be used to replace industry knowledge that is no longer available, but not replace entire divisions of people. Its a tool, and that is how it should be seen.

But this idea that consumers are going to want to become content creators and drive the entertainment industry out of business as you allude to, doubt it. As mentioned consumers by and large aren't wanting to become creators. The 25 year old in Iowa isn't suddenly wanting to be a filmmaker just because AI tools are now or soon will be better able to make believable content. If they didn't want to become a creator before, AI isn't just suddenly going make them desire that. So there is still a need for a Disney and other studios, and will likely be for many decades to come in my opinion. Until we get a "Ready Player One" virtual room where we all plug into everyday.

Exactly. Who’s going to want to come home from work and create their own entertainment?

 

[Disney Irish]

Exactly. Who’s going to want to come home from work and create their own entertainment?

Don't get me wrong, some people do, as that is essentially what the gaming industry is all about now with gaming channels on Youtube. But they're still playing someone else's creation rather than creating it themself based on some entered prompts into an AI engine. I mean maybe one day we'll get a Holodeck like in Star Trek or the Oasis from Ready Player One. But I don't think we're going to have a society of mini creators all creating their own content trying to sell it to others as the poster alluded to.

I'm actually reminded of an episode of The Orville where one of the characters gave the entire ship a virus because they uploaded an illegal simulation program into their Holodeck style simulator. I can just imagine similar things happening with just random content creators all trying to exchange their content in this future society of mini content creators.

 

[Agent H]

Don't get me wrong, some people do, as that is essentially what the gaming industry is all about now with gaming channels on Youtube. But they're still playing someone else's creation rather than creating it themself based on some entered prompts into an AI engine. I mean maybe one day we'll get a Holodeck like in Star Trek or the Oasis from Ready Player One. But I don't think we're going to have a society of mini creators all creating their own content trying to sell it to others as the poster alluded to.

I'm actually reminded of an episode of The Orville where one of the characters gave the entire ship a virus because they uploaded an illegal simulation program into their Holodeck style simulator. I can just imagine similar things happening with just random content creators all trying to exchange their content in this future society of mini content creators.

That’s exactly what I was referring to. I did not intend my post to refer to playing video games. I like to play Luigi’s mansion after I get home from work and then I will watch tv.

 

[Disney Irish]

That’s exactly what I was referring to. I did not intend my post to refer to playing video games. I like to play Luigi’s mansion after I get home from work and then I will watch tv.

I knew what you meant. I was just expanding on it, because the gaming industry is one area where we are seeing a rise in creators for "Let's Play" content just for people who want to watch rather than play themselves.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney cannot “flood their service with an endless amount of crap”. They don’t have the economic firepower to compete with Netflix in streaming. It costs a fortune to achieve the kind of scale that Netflix has.

A bit of a misunderstanding here. There is no need for Disney to overtake Netflix to be highly successful in the DTC streaming space. Services are never monopolies/duopolies.

There’s a massive first mover advantage that Netflix holds much in the way Disney holds in Florida or Royal holds in the family cruise market. But there’s plenty of room for multiple players.

I misspoke earlier; Disney DTC pulls in 24B of consumer revenue now annually. It was 6B a quarter. Netflix now 40B. It’s notable that on most metrics Disney DTC looks like Netflix circa 2019. Which was never on anyone’s radar in 2019. Iger’s, Wall Street or otherwise. They absolutely have the revenue to stand viably in the market with Netflix as one of the main players. Which is entirely different (and completely unnecessary) to knocking Netflix down. They’ve sped run what Netflix looked like at the time of D+’s release. That’s a monumental success.

While it doesn’t mean they need to beat Netflix, but they absolutely can follow in a parallel footpath. One with a little more bespoke tentpole content; compared to Netflix throwing spaghetti of content at the wall and see what sticks. Though I doubt they’ll fully recreate the pandemic spark that Netflix enjoyed the following year, so the gap close will likely slow down.

 

[Fox&Hound]

So excited for Stitch to dominate this weekend! Here we goooooooooo…

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm reminded of every doom and gloom prediction that has made its way through the entertainment space over the last 100 years and how it was going to take everything down, and yet its still here.

The landscape changes and the entertainment space adapts. Whether that is technology changes or even consumer changes, they adapt, and this with AI will be no different. Its a tool just like any other that has been developed over the last 100 years.

Um…a lot of traditional parts of tech and entertainment has been taken down over time…replacements aren’t always a 1:1 either

What streaming is kinda trying to do it replicate linear 1:1

Doesn’t seem all that wise

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Are we ready for the King of rock and roll to return this weekend, and dominate the box office?

Stitch of course.

You almost can’t make this up…

Tracking is showing Disney is about to have its biggest opening weekend score in…how long?

And this thread has tangented to AI and “economic theories of streaming”

 

[Disney Irish]

Um…a lot of traditional parks of tech and entertainment has been taken down over time…replacements aren’t always a 1:1 either

What streaming is kinda trying to do it replicate linear 1:1

Doesn’t seem all that wise

Old tech get phased out in favor of new or different tech, doesn't mean its bad just means its different. This is the nature of how technology evolves over time.

Also streaming isn't trying to replicate linear 1:1. While some aspect of it are similar its a different type of distribution method. The main thing that makes it the same is that you pay x company to get access to y content, which is always going to be the case no matter the distribution method used.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Old tech get phased out in favor of new or different tech, doesn't mean its bad just means its different. This is the nature of how technology evolves over time.

Also streaming isn't trying to replicate linear 1:1. While some aspect of it are similar its a different type of distribution method. The main thing that makes it the same is that you pay x company to get access to y content, which is always going to be the case no matter the distribution method used.

How exactly is trying to lock people into longterm monthly subscriptions with rising fees and ads not like linear?

Did you have the Betamax of linear back in the day?

This take is less stable…since the bailout can be done with a swipe (not the company giving you the runaround about a guy with plumbers crack coming out in 6 weeks to turn it off)…and with enhanced tech an alternative would come far faster than it did for linear.

 

[Disney Irish]

You almost can’t make this up…

Tracking is showing Disney is about to have its biggest opening weekend score in…how long?

Probably be the biggest since Avatar 2, which will be surpassed by Avatar 3 later this year.

And this thread has tangented to AI and “economic theories of streaming”

It all affects the box office.

 

[Pix E. Dust]

I must be an outlier here, but I love Netflix. We have Amazon Prime too, but I always seem to go back to Netflex for the variety and quality of shows. I like that they have the older shows instead of all new properties. If I had to get rid of one of the streaming services, it would definitely Not be Netflix.

I agree. Netflix is hands down my favourite. The price is good too. Crave (Canadian) would be my second choice and Prime would be my third. I subscribe to D+ from time to time but cancel it after the month. (For instance, at Christmas, we wanted to watch Hamilton.) I just don't find there is enough on there for adults.

 

[Disney Irish]

How exactly is trying to lock people into longterm monthly subscriptions with rising fees and ads not like linear?

I said that the payment of content is the similarity. But that is going to be the case no matter how the content is being shipped to the consumer. There will not be this "free" option for all content without some payment, whether that be a direct subscription or with ads. The "man" will always get the dollar in the end.

Did you have the Betamax of linear back in the day?

I've had all the tech going back to the 70s, so yes. I even had the first cable offering in my area back before Disney Channel was even a thing in Jimirro's eye.

This take is less stable…since the bailout can be done with a swipe (not the company giving you the runaround about a guy with plumbers crack coming out in 6 weeks to turn it off)…and with enhanced tech an alternative would come far faster than it did for linear.

This was always going to happen even before streaming, as I don't know about your area up in the North East, but out here in the West we can cancel our cable with the click of a button. No visit from a guy, no runaround on the phone. Just a click and cancel, this has been the case for a long time now.

So yeah the lock-in days of linear has pretty much also ended. Its a new world my friend, lots of things change.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Back to front…

The review aggregators are up to 75-85% for the blue guy…despite some usual vile from the “high standards” outlets…

So it’s gonna be big. I know the theaters around me are juiced with presells…and we’re miserable and have no joy here

 

[Figments Friend]

Are we ready for the King of rock and roll to return this weekend, and dominate the box office?

Stitch of course.

Yes!



Saw the film earlier today.
It is a fun romp for Stitch fans, and features some excellent animation of the blue menace himself.

Families and kids will eat this up….
This will be a huge money maker.

-

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The blue monster - it appears - set the record for a Thursday preview (doubling up cruise) and will set up for the biggest Memorial Day weekend by a Disney movie…

…in other news: COVID killed the Box office

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Avengers moving dates is a massive win for the Mando movie