Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[MoonRakerSCM]

Fascinating reddit thread of theatre workers talking about how utterly abysmal presales are for Snow White-



This is looking to be a maseive bomb.

 

[DKampy]

I don't think that's really a fair assessment. From my observation, and my own opinion. When people say they don't care what celebrities say, they don't want hear them preaching to us. Things like, their political views, environmental stuff, the economy... Not many want to hear about the environment or the cost of groceries from people flying around on private jets making millions

But people can relate with the oligarchs in charge flying to their own private resort in Florida for a weekly golf vacation

As a film fan I personally don’t care what an actor says off screen…. All I care about is the end product…. Including Gina Carano… I don’t agree with her statements or political views, but that does not stop me from enjoying her work on the Mandalorian

From my viewpoint…. As someone who grew up at the time of Sean Penn and Susan Sarandon… politics have always been apart of Hollywood…. Even in the 1940’s and 1950’s people were accusing Hollywood of being communists

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Wait, you’re seriously saying it’s normal to emigrate because you hate the leader of your country?! That seems a rather extraordinary step to take in my opinion. I very much doubt people would have reacted so calmly to those remarks had they come from Zegler.

Countless people threaten to move every election, he just has the means and the fortitude to do it. My own brother tried to move to Canada in 2016, their immigration laws are so strict he couldn’t get a Visa though.

I’m trying whatever I can within reason. We have a scouting trip to Costa Rica coming up in a couple of weeks (worst case scenario, a fun visit.)

If things continue the way they are going, and if my marriage is messed with, we’ll sell everything and move to Australia if we can get in. (I know a business owner there who would “sponsor” me, if necessary.

Hate is a word I dislike and was raised to use rarely, but this is more about preserving my way of life before I’m too old or drop dead. I absolutely will not accept any tampering with my nearly 18 year marriage, and I am willing to lose everything to flee if it comes to that. This is different than last time.

Quit lying about this stuff. People don't like her because she is an awful and pompous person. Everyone normal is sick of you guys lying about this stuff. To deflect criticism.

That’s it. We’re done. Saw that coming weeks ago.

LP

That would be a “long play” vinyl album!

At this point, I’m ready to go to an early screening on Thursday if scheduling allows - before hearing any reviews.

 

[TP2000]

I hope Snow White makes $900 mil and is a blockbuster.

Then maybe Iger can finally afford to improve the parks.

Don't be silly. Disneyland is about to celebrate it's 70th birthday with no new shows, a 10 year old parade brought out of mothballs, and a Walt Disney animatronic show only nerds like us will go see that has just been delayed until July.

There's no money for the parks. We've got to keep the Craft Services table full at all the Burbank studio productions!

So anyways as the outsider looking in,(I have no horse in the race) is SW looking like this barely squeaks out a profit or is it going to be in the realm of Eternals, Cap 4 or the Marvels?

With it's production budget around $250 Million after the British taxpayers send Burbank a check for $55 Million, Snow White would need around $650 Million to breakeven. Judging by the pre-sales at my local multiplex, and the dismal buzz thus far, I don't think it's going to make it to $650 Million globally.

But perhaps the overseas markets will surprise us? After all, a couple Billion foreigners and their pocketbooks aren't controlled by what @Casper Gutman calls "the most powerful people in the country" when it comes to deciding which movie to see on a Saturday night. Or are they?

Between men and women most genres were somewhat close, but the one that had the widest range? Musicals. Men on average had it as their least favorite by the largest margin.

These are clearly men that I don't hang out with at Sunday brunch.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

If things continue the way they are going, and if my marriage is messed with, we’ll sell everything and move to Australia if we can get in. (I know a business owner there who would “sponsor” me, if necessary.

Hate is a word I dislike and was raised to use rarely, but this is more about preserving my way of life before I’m too old or drop dead. I absolutely will not accept any tampering with my nearly 18 year marriage, and I am willing to lose everything to flee if it comes to that. This is different than last time.

I wouldn’t blame you but honestly can’t imagine that happening, I think the worst case scenario is it becomes a state rights issue also, not ideal by any means but even in a worst case scenario you should have 40+ US states that will welcome you and your hubby with open arms.

Stay positive, independent support is something like 80% and even among reps over half support gay marriage, unlike the other can’t be named issue messing with gay marriage would be far more controversial even within their own party.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

But perhaps the overseas markets will surprise us?

I’m clueless what to expect internationally, I had originally estimated domestic at about $150 million and international at about $200 million for a total of $350 million, then someone showed numbers the other day that showed international is historically double the domestic box office for the remakes so I revises my estimate to $300 million internationally and $450 global. Then today someone posted an article predicting a $100 million GLOBAL opening weekend, that would put international below domestic. I couldn’t find a complete list of when the movie opens everywhere but it’ll be in most of Europe, Asia, etc next week so those numbers need to grow fast if it’s going to have any chance at breaking even. That or word of mouth has to be amazing.

Even at a $500 million break even point I don’t see it happening if opening weekend ultimately ends up around $55 million domestic and $45 million internationally. It’s just too high a hill to climb with a weak start.

 

[Farerb]

I just hope Disney's lesson from Snow White is to not remake Bambi. Bambi is the last of Walt Disney's classics that hasn't been remade and I hope it remains that way. There's just no way to update it for the so called modern audience, they would just turn it to The Lion King with Thumper and Flower taking the roles of Timon and Pumbaa and just say unfunny fart jokes all the time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You'd be incorrect.

There's fair consensus it is missing the mark of 450 or even Deadline's 425 more generous (and likely informed) cut off. Either way it didn't and won't make it.

…right…425…totally

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wouldn’t blame you but honestly can’t imagine that happening, I think the worst case scenario is it becomes a state rights issue also, not ideal by any means but even in a worst case scenario you should have 40+ US states that will welcome you and your hubby with open arms.

Stay positive, independent support is something like 80% and even among reps over half support gay marriage, unlike the other can’t be named issue messing with gay marriage would be far more controversial even within their own party.

“States rights” has been a dog whistle mask of evil for 250 years

Anyone think trying to take over all education is about “the children”?

Who are we kidding?

 

[coffeefan]

Mixed reviews incoming, mostly good to decent with lots of praise for Rachel. People also like the animals and Dopey.

 

[easyrowrdw]

Thanks, sorry. Those are the number of screenings that each of those movies got on their opening Saturday in my market's 6 AMC theaters. It's intended to be a relatively representative way to measure the size of each movie's opening, since the traditional data only shares number of theaters. Every super major release is in basically every theater, so they all just get reported as ~4000 theaters. There's a lot more wiggle room that goes unreported in that. For example, Deadpool & Wolverine opened with an astronomical 179 screenings in my 6 theaters.

The higher the screening count, the more potential BO theaters are thinking that the movie has for its opening. Most of the biggest movies will have more than a single screen at each theater for the first four weeks of their release.

That’s interesting info. Thanks!

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Goosing the numbers to give Mufasa more eyeballs?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Mixed reviews incoming, mostly good to decent with lots of praise for Rachel. People also like the animals and Dopey.

The dissing of Gal is pretty consistent.

 

[Farerb]

The dissing of Gal is pretty consistent.

Because the new litmus test to know if you're a Good Person™ is to stan Rachel as if she's the greatest ever and trash Gal Gadot.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Because the new litmus test to know if you're a Good Person™ is to stan Rachel as if she's the greatest ever and trash Gal Gadot.

Or because Gadot is not a particularly good actress.

Acting talent isn’t political. James Woods and Jon Voight are very good actors. Gadot isn’t. And that’s true even though I’d likely agree with a lot more of what Gadot believes then Woods or Voight.

 

[Farerb]

Or because Gadot is not a particularly good actress.

Acting talent isn’t political. James Woods and Jon Voight are very good actors. Gadot isn’t. And that’s true even though I’d likely agree with a lot more of what Gadot believes then Woods or Voight.

There are many bad or mediocre actors in Hollywood, even ones who are worse than Gal Gadot. None of them gets the same treatment as Gal does.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Regardless of the box office performance of Snow White, is there any doubt that Disney will be, by far, the most profitable studio of 2025?

Disney may lead the gross income numbers in the box office, but who knows what their actual profit is; who knows how much money they put out to achieve that gross income.

Gross income numbers for a company is like jewelry, it looks great but you may have overpaid for it.

 

[Willmark]

These are clearly men that I don't hang out with at Sunday brunch.

Likely not.

Favorite movie genres in the U.S. by gender 2018 | Statista

Like music, movies can be hard to pin down when it comes to which genre they are most aligned with.

www.statista.com

Was misremembering the gap in the breakdown but was correct in that being the lowest for men.

 

[Casper Gutman]

There are many bad or mediocre actors in Hollywood, even ones who are worse than Gal Gadot. None of them gets the same treatment as Gal does.

Gadot gets inappropriate amounts of hatred, yes, but that is not what is happening here. Her acting is being fairly evaluated. And frankly, I can’t think of many consistently employed actors who are as wooden as Gadot - Sam Worthington? He doesn’t really appear much outside of Avatar. Jai Cortney? He’s pretty much disappeared.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Disney's getting desperate...