Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Tonight is the Oscars, so out of curiosity, here's the 10 nominees ranked by domestic gross:

Wicked: $473 million
Dune: Part 2: $282 million
A Complete Unknown: $73.7 million
Conclave: $32.4 million
The Substance: $17.4 million
The Brutalist: $15.7 million
Anora: $15.6 million
I'm Still Here: $5.2 million
Nickel Boys: $2.7 million
Emilia Perez: No domestic numbers (Netflix USA distribution)

Wow. This can't bode well for Oscars viewership numbers.

That said, I do think it was very smart of them to choose Conan O'Brian to be the host; he's not known as being political at all, and it should help tone down that unfortunate element quite a bit. The Oscars needs all the help it can get to remain relevant, and this should help it regain trust and viewers.

Up until yesterday, I was planning to watch tonight (which would have been very good for their Nielsen number!). But then I got an invite to a Japanese steakhouse I like for this evening, and I'll be doing that instead. A gaggle of old confirmed bachelors in the desert going out to dinner instead of watching the Oscars?!? The days of us Gays throwing the Gay Super Bowl parties for the Oscars are long over I'm afraid.

But that Best Picture lineup? Oof. I imagine Wicked will be a top contender. I actually know a couple people who have seen it! That's a change.

 

[Disney Irish]

While it hasn't set the world on fire, Cap: Brave New World has quietly managed to slowly start inching it way to a decent WW box office -

Currently sitting at ~$342M WW its almost a certainty that it will hit over $400M on its way to $425Mish if not a bit more by the end of its run, putting it into profitability range during theatrical and certainly when it leaves and does its post-theatrical run. Which shows that again don't count a movie out until the end of its theatrical run, it may just end up legging it out even if its slow.

 

[TP2000]

While it hasn't set the world on fire, Cap: Brave New World has quietly managed to slowly start inching it way to a decent WW box office -

Compared to the previous five Marvel tentpole movies, this isn't "decent". It's disappointing.

I mean, at least Captain America 4 beat The Marvels, but that's an extremely low bar to use a disastrous mega-flop that lost a few hundred million for the studio like The Marvels. It appears Captain America 4 will come in less than Ant-Man and the Wasp; which is another low bar for Marvel.

Currently sitting at ~$342M WW its almost a certainty that it will hit over $400M on its way to $425Mish if not a bit more by the end of its run, putting it into profitability range during theatrical and certainly when it leaves and does its post-theatrical run.

If it makes $400 Million (likely), it will lose $50 Million at a broad 2.5X formula. Or, assuming they spent $90 Million on marketing and using a more precise 60/40 domestic/overseas box office formula, it will lose around $70 Million.

If it makes it to $425 Million (Iess likely), it will lose $25 Million at a broad 2.5X formula, or using a more precise 60/40 domestic/overseas box office formula, it will lose around $45 Million.

Captain America 4 is not a box office success, nor is it even profitable, even with its modest (for Marvel) budget of $180 Million.

Which shows that again don't count a movie out until the end of its theatrical run, it may just end up legging it out even if its slow.

This is not what good legs look like. In fact, this is the opposite of "legging it out".

Captain America: Brave New World (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Captain America: Brave New World (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Agent H]

AMC revealed this popcorn bucket for Snow White.

 

[Disney Irish]

Compared to the previous five Marvel tentpole movies, this isn't "decent". It's disappointing.

I mean, at least Captain America 4 beat The Marvels, but that's an extremely low bar to use a disastrous mega-flop that lost a few hundred million for the studio like The Marvels. It appears Captain America 4 will come in less than Ant-Man and the Wasp; which is another low bar for Marvel.

View attachment 846929




If it makes $400 Million (likely), it will lose $50 Million at a broad 2.5X formula. Or, assuming they spent $90 Million on marketing and using a more precise 60/40 domestic/overseas box office formula, it will lose around $70 Million.

If it makes it to $425 Million (Iess likely), it will lose $25 Million at a broad 2.5X formula, or using a more precise 60/40 domestic/overseas box office formula, it will lose around $45 Million.

Captain America 4 is not a box office success, nor is it even profitable, even with its modest (for Marvel) budget of $180 Million.



This is not what good legs look like. In fact, this is the opposite of "legging it out".

View attachment 846931

Captain America: Brave New World (2025) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Captain America: Brave New World (2025) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

And as discussed many many many many many times, does a movie stop earning money just because it leaves theaters? No, of course it doesn’t. You guys are so shortsighted in your “tracking” of movies.

So if it does hit $400M+ it’s in that profitability range because it can make up any shortfall from theatrical in the post-theatrical space. Which turns this into a decent run for a movie that started out disappointing.

Again don’t count something out just because it doesn’t open strong.

 

[TP2000]

And as discussed many many many many many times, does a movie stop earning money just because it leaves theaters?

As discussed at least once or twice, this thread is for Disney Box Office results. Not bargain bin DVD sales next Christmas or a Disney+ earnings call two fiscal quarters from now.

No, of course it doesn’t. So if it does hit $400M+ it’s in that profitability range because it can make up any shortfall from theatrical in the post-theatrical space. Which turns this into a decent run for a movie that started out disappointing.

Again don’t count something out just because it doesn’t open strong.

The data speaks for itself. Captain America 4 is not "legging out". It's doing the opposite of that.

 

[Disney Irish]

As discussed at least once or twice, this thread is for Disney Box Office results. Not bargain bin DVD sales next Christmas or a Disney+ earnings call two fiscal quarters from now.

And yet we talk about everything else in this thread but box office a lot of times, so don't give me that.

Also this isn't about some DVD sales, its about ALL post-theatrical earnings which includes everything from digital sales to streaming contracts to airline/hotels contracts, etc., all of which brings in $10s if not $100s of Millions for a movie over its life.

So while it still has some life left during its theatrical run in the next couple weeks, if it doesn't move into profitability during theatrical it certainly will post-theatrical. And while it likely won't be $100s of Millions in profit, it should be in the $10s of Millions, making it a success overall even if it was a box office disappointment. So it'll be interesting to see Deadline's breakdown later this spring for this one, as @BrianLo has mentioned previously.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disney and Mattel Debut Collectors Edition ‘Snow White’ Dolls Inspired by the New Live-Action Film (Exclusive)

Be among the first to shop and see photos of the figurines inspired by Rachel Zegler's Snow White and Gal Gadot's Evil Queen.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[DKampy]

Happy Oscars Day, gang! Is anyone going to watch the show tonight?

I was watching the Oscars via the Hulu live stream as I don’t have cable….but after 3 and 1/2 hours it said my live stream has end

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Excuses are in overdrive again

Cap 4 is a fail…but that doesn’t stop the Iger defense force

Move on

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I understood the original post and am honestly confused by your criticism of it.

That’s OK.

 

[Disney Irish]

I was watching the Oscars via the Hulu live stream as I don’t have cable….but after 3 and 1/2 hours it said my live stream has end

Another year for independent movies.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Gal and Rachel presented together. I may have been reading into it, but it seemed a little distant between the two.

 

[brideck]

Gal and Rachel presented together. I may have been reading into it, but it seemed a little distant between the two.

I definitely got that vibe. Pretty much the only presenting duo to not have any banter whatsoever.

 

[DKampy]

…didn’t miss too Much

As usual…the “last minute” favorite that no one will ever watch took the haul

And they gave best actor to one nobody can stand…and managed to behave like an @$$ on stage again

And best actress went to the one who will likely never be in anything again…just happened to be the only hooker nominated this year

Yoi…the academy is as clueless as the DNC

Did you see Anora? I thought Mikey Madison was great in that… it was who I was rooting for…. It was the surprise of the night for me… I was expecting Demi Moore…. Although I would not have been disappointed if she took home the prize either…. The Best Picture win though I was expecting

Every year people complain about how they need to nominate movies that people watched…. As someone who watches everything from popcorn crowd pleasers to small independent films… I don’t think that is the issue…. I like a blockbuster escape film as much as the next person…. But often my favorite film of the year is closer to what is Oscar nominated….it’s not the films fault if no one watches it… this is not the most financially successful film of the year award

 

[TalkingHead]

I thought the winners of the major awards were good choices, except Brody. Surely the most head scratching two time Best Actor winner, and what was that speech?

 

[brideck]

I thought the winners of the major awards were good choices, except Brody. Surely the most head scratching two time Best Actor winner, and what was that speech?

While I was perhaps rooting for Chalamet tonight, do you not like either of his performances in The Pianist or The Brutalist? I think a lot of roles are just more Oscar-capable than others -- the one in The Pianist is definitely one of those. Anyone who did a credible job there had a good chance of walking away with the award.

 

[TP2000]

I was watching the Oscars via the Hulu live stream as I don’t have cable….

I was at a mid-range teppanyaki restaurant in Southwest Utah not watching the Oscars, as I have a few friends who can still rally for drinks and a dinner out on a random Sunday night.

But after two+ hours (and long after feigning humor when the chef pulled down the pants on the Japanese doll to put out the fire on the flaming onions) we wandered out through the bar where most TV's were showing a football game, but one TV said that "Anora" had won Best Picture and had "Swept the Night!".

Anora? What is that? Did anyone see it? I'm going to have to Google this, apparently.

Something tells me the Nielsen numbers on this year's Oscars won't be good. Even if Conan O'Brian tried very hard.

.

 

[TP2000]

Tonight is the Oscars, so out of curiosity, here's the 10 nominees ranked by domestic gross:
Anora: $15.6 million

Quoting you again, after I learned Anora won Best Picture, and Best Actress, and "Swept The Night!" according to the local Las Vegas TV news.

Anora. Um... okay. Assuming everyone who saw Anora only paid $10 for a ticket, averaging out the $14 arthouse tickets in LA or New York with some $6 Tuesday matinees in Wellington, Kansas, we get the following Box Office demographics:

$10 average ticket price = 1.56 Million tickets sold, or 0.5% of the United States saw the movie Anora.

So half of one percent (and I rounded up from 0.45%!) of all 340 Million Americans saw the winner for Best Picture this year.

And who says Hollywood is dead and the Oscars are obsolete?!?

 

[BrianLo]

So it'll be interesting to see Deadline's breakdown later this spring for this one, as @BrianLo has mentioned previously.

That was Mufasa. We likely won’t see this one, it’s neither a major winner or a major loser. Also it would be Spring 2026, technically.

Deadline though has break even estimate (with everything considered in the back end) at 425. Which it might not quite make, but I’d generally trust that figure.