Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disstevefan1]

OK, now Mufasa is petering out. Number 3 for the last 3 days, closer to half a million per day.

Its fine. Mufasa made money, that's the important thing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

OK, now Mufasa is petering out. Number 3 for the last 3 days, closer to half a million per day.

It’s flatlined…it actually held on longer than it originally looked. It appear to be a disaster after opening.

Tally is at $630….so in the breakeven realm.

Now we can move on…and they can go ahead and stop trying to make more of them (please)

 

[Disstevefan1]

It’s flatlined…it actually held on longer than it originally looked. It appear to be a disaster after opening.

Tally is at $630….so in the breakeven realm.

Now we can move on…and they can go ahead and stop trying to make more of them (please)

At 630M it made some money. For Disney movie business today we have to be thankful its not a loss.

There WILL be losers this year so we should be thankful about Mufasa.

 

[easyrowrdw]

@Casper Gutman probably does assign more weight to those factors than I do, but the notion that he was claiming that these films would have been wildly successful if not for some nefarious conspiracy is a crude and derisive caricaturisation of what he said. I don’t see how reasonable discussion is possible when certain posters (not you, I hasten to add) seem unwilling or unable to respond to others sincerely and in good faith.

I agree. There has to be a willingness to consider the other person's position and that one's own position could change. That's definitely a big factor. I guess I just thought it was interesting that two people who ostensibly agree on the social factor at issue still disagree on the impact of that factor. To me, it seemed indicative of the complexity of the matter.

As Buford points out, I never stated that the rage campaign was the sole or primary cause for the failures of certain films. Disney certainly believes it had some pronounced impact, however, since they are censoring their product, authorizing tens of millions in reshoots, settling or dropping lawsuits they were likely to win, and otherwise taking extraordinary measures to attempt to placate the rage network.

Yes, I made sure to quote you directly so as to provide your exact words. Your posts had already been quoted and when I read them I thought the juxtaposition with Buford's was interesting.

 

[brideck]

It’s flatlined…it actually held on longer than it originally looked. It appear to be a disaster after opening.

Y'all's definition of flatlined is really strange. I think it was BrianLo who was talking a month back or so about the dramatic underestimation of the long tail on this board.

Just counting from today to when Mufasa finally leaves theaters, it will make more than 85% of all US releases do in their entire theatrical run.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

There were some Dogman haters on here or another thread. Anyway, reviews are out, Dogman is 77% Fresh compared to 58% Mufasa. Hopefully it does well and we get more Pilkey films in the future.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

There were some Dogman haters on here or another thread. Anyway, reviews are out, Dogman is 77% Fresh compared to 58% Mufasa. Hopefully it does well and we get more Pilkey films in the future.

My kids loved Dogman growing up, some of their first books.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Y'all's definition of flatlined is really strange. I think it was BrianLo who was talking a month back or so about the dramatic underestimation of the long tail on this board.

Just counting from today to when Mufasa finally leaves theaters, it will make more than 85% of all US releases do in their entire theatrical run.

That wasn’t the comparison…

The comp is large tentpoles with massive screens and $200+ production budgets and $150+ marketing budgets

By those standards… this is not a hit…it’s around a neutral.

And when I use “flatline”…I use it as the steep drop off of most - not all -movies right around 21 days after release. It works out to be a huge chunk of the overall take. Not always…but predictably so.

Now…Mufasa started out terribly…so its “flatline” was actually delayed.

And the reward for that…maybe break even?

 

[Dranth]

It’s noticeable how certain opinions seem to get more pushback than others. Over time, we’ve seen conversations shift away from actual debate and lean more toward dismissiveness or mockery instead of engaging with the argument itself.

Some "opinions" deserve to be dismissed as not all opinions are equal.

I would also argue that in most cases, the folks who get dismissed tend to earn that over time by constantly repeating the same thing over and over and over, provide little to no data to support their opinions and when shown anything to the country claims it is fake, a cover up or someone was paid off.

For example, if someone only believes angry youtubers who claim their opinions are fact, dismisses all real-world evidence to the contrary and accuses everyone else of being a shill then that person is not to be taken seriously.

 

[Disney Irish]

There were some Dogman haters on here or another thread. Anyway, reviews are out, Dogman is 77% Fresh compared to 58% Mufasa. Hopefully it does well and we get more Pilkey films in the future.

It was in the Mufasa thread, I was one of the posters who made a comment, and I will stand by that comment. Critics could say that its the next Lawrence of Arabia and I'll still comment that I think it looks stupid. That doesn't however mean I don't think anyone could enjoy it, most certainly they can. I just think it looks stupid and its not for me. But if its content you want to enjoy and you think it looks good, by all means go watch it and hope for its success. I don't wish any movie to outright do badly, that is not my style, I leave that to others.

 

[brideck]

Critics could say that its the next Lawrence of Arabia and I'll still comment that I think it looks stupid.

It is based on a book series for 1st-3rd graders, after all, so it's going to be pretty inherently stupid on its face. The trailer has made us chuckle a bit, but I'm not sure we're going to make it out to see it anytime soon. Maybe the Paw Patrol movies would be a good comp? Totally different vibe, but similar age group.

It'll be interesting to see what sort of pull it has with older kids, if any. Basically any kid in school today should be familiar with the series (at least in the US -- I have no idea of the global reach of the brand). One of my godkids loved them when he was younger, but now he's in 8th grade -- I don't think he'll be running out to the theater.

 

[Disney Irish]

It is based on a book series for 1st-3rd graders, after all, so it's going to be pretty inherently stupid on its face. The trailer has made us chuckle a bit, but I'm not sure we're going to make it out to see it anytime soon. Maybe the Paw Patrol movies would be a good comp? Totally different vibe, but similar age group.

It'll be interesting to see what sort of pull it has with older kids, if any. Basically any kid in school today should be familiar with the series (at least in the US -- I have no idea of the global reach of the brand). One of my godkids loved them when he was younger, but now he's in 8th grade -- I don't think he'll be running out to the theater.

Yes I'm aware of its origins, along with the rest of the Captain Underpants franchise. But it was brought up in the Mufasa thread by another poster and I just provided a comment that acknowledged their opinion, as I too thought it looked stupid.

But yes it'll be interesting to see if it has any "bite" at the box office, my expectation on totals is similar to Captain Underpants, around $125-$150M WW (maybe $175M?). If it does better than that it'll be considered a hit for the franchise.

 

[brideck]

But yes it'll be interesting to see if it has any "bite" at the box office, my expectation on totals is similar to Captain Underpants, around $125-$150M WW (maybe $175M?). If it does better than that it'll be considered a hit for the franchise.

I totally forgot that there was ever a Captain Underpants movie. That one came out considerably later in the life cycle of that IP (20 years after the first book, 2 years after the last one), so I wouldn't be surprised to see this out perform that one. Though looking at Google Trends, I'm not sure how many people even know this movie exists.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

It is based on a book series for 1st-3rd graders, after all, so it's going to be pretty inherently stupid on its face. The trailer has made us chuckle a bit, but I'm not sure we're going to make it out to see it anytime soon. Maybe the Paw Patrol movies would be a good comp? Totally different vibe, but similar age group.

It'll be interesting to see what sort of pull it has with older kids, if any. Basically any kid in school today should be familiar with the series (at least in the US -- I have no idea of the global reach of the brand). One of my godkids loved them when he was younger, but now he's in 8th grade -- I don't think he'll be running out to the theater.

The books are super popular. My kids are excited for it. I think it was brought up in the Mufasa thread as a possible competitor. My kids had zero interest in Mufasa which makes me think that movie is for a much different audience

 

[MagicMouseFan]

Some "opinions" deserve to be dismissed as not all opinions are equal.

I would also argue that in most cases, the folks who get dismissed tend to earn that over time by constantly repeating the same thing over and over and over, provide little to no data to support their opinions and when shown anything to the country claims it is fake, a cover up or someone was paid off.

For example, if someone only believes angry youtubers who claim their opinions are fact, dismisses all real-world evidence to the contrary and accuses everyone else of being a shill then that person is not to be taken seriously.

I agree with your perspective. Not all opinions are created equal.

I'm curious what those opinions are that you think should be dismissed?

It would be useful to know the type of opinions that you consider to be particularly troublesome and the reasons why.

 

[TP2000]

As Buford points out, I never stated that the rage campaign was the sole or primary cause for the failures of certain films. Disney certainly believes it had some pronounced impact, however, since they are censoring their product, authorizing tens of millions in reshoots, settling or dropping lawsuits they were likely to win, and otherwise taking extraordinary measures to attempt to placate the rage network.

I'm just quoting you to note the change in nomenclature for 2025. The hate network is now called the rage network. I commend you for the rebrand and taking a kinder, gentler approach to deplorables like us. Barbara Bush would be proud.

I'm noting it down in my pad, and will try to remember; I'm a member of the rage network now!

Here's the box office for Thursday, previewing how this weekend will likely fall out with several new movies arriving.

As has been noted, Mufasa is flatlining now and Moana 2 is probably at its last sell-by date this upcoming weekend. Someone more in tune with the Indy Theater scene will need to explain what the trajectory for A Complete Unknown might be from here. I'm assuming it's one of those movies designed mainly for Oscar noms and knowing smiles from cinephiles, instead of profitability? Does it stay in theaters now that it just got 8 Oscar nominations today? I imagine so!

'A Complete Unknown' Passes Major Global Box Office Milestone After Earning Eight Oscar Nods

A Complete Unknown, starring Timothée Chalamet as Bob Dylan, has sung to a pivotal box office milestone. Read on for more!

collider.com

Here's where the box office stands now...

Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic $271, Overseas $231 = $277 Million Profit
Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $135, Overseas $165 = Exactly Breakeven!
Complete Unknown (like a rolling stone?): Production $70, Marketing $35, Domestic $39, Overseas $5 = $61 Million Loss

Have a great weekend, gang! Scrape off that icy windshield and go to the movies!

 

[Dranth]

I agree with your perspective. Not all opinions are created equal.

I'm curious what those opinions are that you think should be dismissed?

It would be useful to know the type of opinions that you consider to be particularly troublesome and the reasons why.

I already provided that information but as another example:

• Random poster says the sky is green. Piles of evidence is provided that the sky is in fact blue. Poster says all that evidence is fake or is from dishonest shills that have been paid off and they provide a link to a random site or YouTube video of a guy yelling about how the sky is green (if they provide any "evidence" at all).
  • The more threads someone does this in, the more likely we are dealing with an unserious poster or outright troll and there is zero reason to care or pay attention to what they say at that point. The only reason I see to engage with posters like that is so that readers that come along later can be exposed to reality.

I try not to put people on ignore, but there are certainly posters I don't take seriously.

 

[MagicMouseFan]

I already provided that information but as another example:

• Random poster says the sky is green. Piles of evidence is provided that the sky is in fact blue. Poster says all that evidence is fake or is from dishonest shills that have been paid off and they provide a link to a random site or YouTube video of a guy yelling about how the sky is green (if they provide any "evidence" at all).
  • The more threads someone does this in, the more likely we are dealing with an unserious poster or outright troll and there is zero reason to care or pay attention to what they say at that point. The only reason I see to engage with posters like that is so that readers that come along later can be exposed to reality.

I try not to put people on ignore, but there are certainly posters I don't take seriously.

what planet is he on?

 

[Agent H]

what planet is he on?

Well I can’t say for sure about the sky but dagobah has a lot of green things on it

 

[brideck]

I already talked about Mufasa upthread. It'll be passing Sonic 3 shortly on the domestic side, which firmly puts it into the top 10 for the year (#9, by my count), so I think that means that we'll be getting a profitability breakdown from Deadline in the Spring. Hopefully.

Someone more in tune with the Indy Theater scene will need to explain what the trajectory for A Complete Unknown might be from here. I'm assuming it's one of those movies designed mainly for Oscar noms and knowing smiles from cinephiles, instead of profitability? Does it stay in theaters now that it just got 8 Oscar nominations today? I imagine so!

I'd say A Complete Unknown wasn't just made for Oscar nominations (musician biopics have been all the rage lately), but it certainly got some. That should mean that it'll stay in theaters through the 2nd weekend of March. It also looks like it's getting pretty good holds this week off of Chalamet's performance on SNL last weekend -- he sang 3 Dylan songs for those who missed it, so it was definitely aimed specifically to promote this movie.

I would guess that it's got at least $15m more domestic in it. It's only really started to roll out internationally in the last week or so, and doesn't open in some countries until the end of February, so it's anyone's guess what that number will look like as time passes. Walk the Line got a 2:1 US:Int'l split and more recent movies like Rocketman and Elvis (these are obviously bigger names than Dylan from a popularity standpoint) got 50:50 splits.

Have a great weekend, gang! Scrape off that icy windshield and go to the movies!

We're planning to see five movies this weekend. None of them Disney movies (yet), they're all doing too well at the moment for us to need to go see them.