Or... Let There Be Carnage got bad to middling reviews and scores and thus was the cause of a lack of interest in a sequel.
Cf. Cars 3
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Cf. Cars 3
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Just like anything I think it comes down to execution. Venom 3 while fun wasn't executed very well, so it didn't have any hook in my opinion to bring people back. And I could have told you it would have done better than Joker 2, as it didn't try to do the bait-and-switch of it being a musical. Its why, while I think it'll do well overall, some maybe turned off by Wicked since the trailers aren't 100% clear its a musical. As believe it or not there are people out there that don't know its a musical.
There are a few other mid-level movies that may interest people such Here, Heretic, and Elevation before Wicked and Gladiator 2 open.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
We still haven’t really seen a good superhero film severely underperform yet. Maybe The Marvels in the extreme sense?
But I feel too like this remains largely just a quality control issue out of Warner and Sony.
The MCU box office average benchmark post-Endgame is largely consistent with the pre Endgame run.
But I feel too like this remains largely just a quality control issue out of Warner and Sony.
The MCU box office average benchmark post-Endgame is largely consistent with the pre Endgame run.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Finally saw Wild Robot, pretty good and better than anything I’ve seen from Disney in ages.
TalkingHead
Well-Known Member
Inching closer and closer to the inevitable Marvel/DC crossover movie(s). Alan Smithee’s dying to have another credit.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
‘Wicked’ To Cast $80M+ Opening Spell, ‘Gladiator II’ To Roar $65M – Box Office Early Look
'Wicked' is set to capture females in its opening weekend with $80M while 'Gladiator II' is eyeing $65M with men and older women in the pre-Thanksgiving frame.
deadline.com
A rising tide raises all ships. Theatres are having a much, much better second half of the year.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I know we've had to adjust expectations post-2020, but $80M seems low even by adjusted standards for something like Wicked. Especially since predictions from just a week or so ago was $100-$125M. So that seems to indicate that pre-sales are not going as well as originally hoped. Is it possible Moana 2 is having an effect?‘Wicked’ To Cast $80M+ Opening Spell, ‘Gladiator II’ To Roar $65M – Box Office Early Look
'Wicked' is set to capture females in its opening weekend with $80M while 'Gladiator II' is eyeing $65M with men and older women in the pre-Thanksgiving frame.
A rising tide raises all ships. Theatres are having a much, much better second half of the year.
I wonder if it'll be adjusted down again as we get closer to release.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I guess I never bought into over-inflated expectations.
Just comparing it to Wonka, Poppins Returns and Greatest Showman. It seems to be looking quite strong for the holiday musical slot it is filling. Budget is mostly in line with the first two.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Musical movies typically haven't opened too big, but I think the idea is that this being one of the most anticipated musical-to-movie releases gave it a larger potential.I guess I never bought into over-inflated expectations.
Just comparing it to Wonka, Poppins Returns and Greatest Showman. It seems to be looking quite strong for the holiday musical slot it is filling. Budget is mostly in line with the first two.
Guess we'll see how it goes, but I can see it being adjusted down closer to $70M as we get closer to release.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Coincidently, $80 million is about what Oz the Great and Powerful opened to in 2013.
Projections seem to be increasingly tougher for the predictors to gauge these days……pre~2020…It would usually get close to accurate….this year the Movies either over or under performs the projections
Yeah, I think because there's three A-level titles opening in less than a week's time no one wants to predict a blowout for any single one of them and be proven wrong. Not to mention how very, very wrong the Thanksgiving predictions were last year; Wish was expected to be an easy first place for the holiday weekend, and boy that didn't happen, nor did the frantic hopes that it would be an Elemental-esque slow burn.
That article linked to actually gives a good breakdown of why the projected numbers are what they are: Wicked has stronger presales than Gladiator II in part because women are planning outings for it (as happened with Barbie), but Gladiator II is the sort of movie that could have more walk-up business from both men and women who aren't interested in Wicked (and some might make time for both). I'd also note that both movies are lengthy, which limits how many showings each can have in a day, and being Big Big Movies some viewers might wait until they can see them in a premium format like IMAX (this happened with the recent Dune duology, which helped them leg out in their theatrical runs), though this will be trickier with Wicked because Moana 2 arrives just 5 days later. In fact that also might be driving presales. Moana 2 will primarily be driven by walk-up business -- families with kids being what they are trying to book ahead could be derailed by all sorts of things! -- but that it is performing well in presales is encouraging.
The great news is that all three movies look to at least have strong starts. If any or all turn out to be good, so much the better, but the review embargoes haven't been lifted yet. Gladiator II did have a world premiere screening a few days back that apparently went well. Wicked's world premiere is this weekend. Social media reactions tend to be glowing most of the time so they needs be taken with a grain of salt (though if they're not wholly enthusiastic that could be a sign of trouble; that happened with, again, Wish), but given how confident Paramount and Universal already are about these films -- they've done a great job raising awareness, all things considered -- we might get the review embargoes lifted sooner rather than later.
An interesting thing with Moana 2 is that apparently, if you're not really tuned into Disney media and/or don't have kids, you might not know about it yet. In the social media circles I travel it's almost only talked up in terms of "Wait, there's a Moana 2 already?" So I guess the presales speak to Disney at least making the Disney families aware of it!
That article linked to actually gives a good breakdown of why the projected numbers are what they are: Wicked has stronger presales than Gladiator II in part because women are planning outings for it (as happened with Barbie), but Gladiator II is the sort of movie that could have more walk-up business from both men and women who aren't interested in Wicked (and some might make time for both). I'd also note that both movies are lengthy, which limits how many showings each can have in a day, and being Big Big Movies some viewers might wait until they can see them in a premium format like IMAX (this happened with the recent Dune duology, which helped them leg out in their theatrical runs), though this will be trickier with Wicked because Moana 2 arrives just 5 days later. In fact that also might be driving presales. Moana 2 will primarily be driven by walk-up business -- families with kids being what they are trying to book ahead could be derailed by all sorts of things! -- but that it is performing well in presales is encouraging.
The great news is that all three movies look to at least have strong starts. If any or all turn out to be good, so much the better, but the review embargoes haven't been lifted yet. Gladiator II did have a world premiere screening a few days back that apparently went well. Wicked's world premiere is this weekend. Social media reactions tend to be glowing most of the time so they needs be taken with a grain of salt (though if they're not wholly enthusiastic that could be a sign of trouble; that happened with, again, Wish), but given how confident Paramount and Universal already are about these films -- they've done a great job raising awareness, all things considered -- we might get the review embargoes lifted sooner rather than later.
An interesting thing with Moana 2 is that apparently, if you're not really tuned into Disney media and/or don't have kids, you might not know about it yet. In the social media circles I travel it's almost only talked up in terms of "Wait, there's a Moana 2 already?" So I guess the presales speak to Disney at least making the Disney families aware of it!
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I don't think that's true. Quorums Unaided awareness on Moana 2 is actually quite high. Higher than anything else upcoming. Though I can't tell you what is normal, other than it's better.
Also Moana 2 played in front of Inside Out 2, which basically represents the entirety of their potential paying audience given how well that one did. Mixed with the viewership numbers on its trailers.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Exactly to say that there isn't awareness that Moana 2 is coming this Thanksgiving is not being honest and just looking to pick a fight about the current state of Disney animation. IO2 sold about ~155M tickets WW, that is a whole lot of faces that saw and are aware of Moana 2 from the trailer that played ahead of IO2.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Weekend box office -
Venom 3 had an ok 2nd weekend hold. But other than that nothing too earth shattering as most stayed away from theaters over the Halloween weekend, opting instead to go to parties I presume.
Venom 3 had an ok 2nd weekend hold. But other than that nothing too earth shattering as most stayed away from theaters over the Halloween weekend, opting instead to go to parties I presume.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Just because there was a trailer in from of Inside Out 2 doesn't mean people will see it. It might be the exact opposite reaction. What is a "Quorum Unaided awareness" and how do you measure it?
You don’t think people are interested in a sequel to the all time top streaming movie
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
The presales suggest it will do quite well. I’m making no definitive predictions, but I do find it somewhat surprising that you’ve already written it off as you have.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Nothing I said implied otherwise. The question I responded to was whether people are aware the movie exists.
It’s a research firm that asks people to list what movies are forthcoming, without prompting them. We don’t typically talk about them because it doesn’t really correlate super well to intent. But it certainly is a good measure of current awareness.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
That's cool to know. I think it will be a good movie. I'm not going to go out my way to see it. I think movie goers are aware as they are with any other upcoming movie. It is a girl princess movie so that crowd will see it.