Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)

[Sir_Cliff]

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but the part I can’t get past is that movies like Trolls 3, Ninja Turtles, and Migration are pulling in bigger numbers. So clearly families are willing to get out there for some movies. And those are examples of movies that received a mid level reception, not the Marios or Spider Verses. I said some time ago that maybe Disney suffers from brand recognition, so that people know they can wait for something on Disney+ but aren’t clear about where Trolls will be streaming. So maybe that explains the discrepancy.

Migration just became the 6th animated release of 2023 to gross over $100 million domestically.

I agree that there is still an audience for these movies, and that Disney+ is probably hurting them more than anything else.

I think the goal posts have moved quite a bit, though, as Migration and Trolls 3 didn't perform spectacularly by pre-pandemic standards.

I do agree, though, that the Disney branding here is probably working against them because there's no doubt once you see a Disney film that it will eventually end up on Disney+. It is interesting that the film has performed more in line with what you might expect internationally.

 

[TP2000]

I’m not sure how to explain it, but Wish is continuing to do significantly better internationally than it did domestically:

It’s a little high but that’s pretty standard for animated Disney movies, I pulled up a couple recent movies on box office mojo and it’s in the neighborhood of other titles.

Wish is currently 27% domestic, 73% international

Frozen was 29% domestic, 71% international

Tangled was 34% domestic, 66% international

Moana was 36% domestic, 64% international

Looked at another way with the actual inflation adjusted dollar amounts, Wish fares much worse overseas compared to its Pre-2020 predecessors.

Wish did 15% of the Overseas Box Office of Frozen II
Wish did 36% of the Overseas Box Office of Moana
Wish did 33% of the Overseas Box Office of Tangled
Wish did 39% of the Overseas Box Office of Brave
Wish did 21% of the Overseas Box Office of Zootopia

Movie Comparison: Wish (2023) vs. Frozen II (2019) vs. Moana (2016) vs. Tangled (2010) vs. Brave (2012) vs. Zootopia (2016)

Domestic box office comparison between Wish (2023) and Frozen II (2019) and Moana (2016) and Tangled (2010) and Brave (2012) and Zootopia (2016)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[LittleBuford]

Looked at another way with the actual inflation adjusted dollar amounts, Wish fares much worse overseas compared to its Pre-2020 predecessors.

View attachment 765578

Wish did 15% of the Overseas Box Office of Frozen II
Wish did 36% of the Overseas Box Office of Moana
Wish did 33% of the Overseas Box Office of Tangled
Wish did 39% of the Overseas Box Office of Brave
Wish did 21% of the Overseas Box Office of Zootopia

Movie Comparison: Wish (2023) vs. Frozen II (2019) vs. Moana (2016) vs. Tangled (2010) vs. Brave (2012) vs. Zootopia (2016)

Domestic box office comparison between Wish (2023) and Frozen II (2019) and Moana (2016) and Tangled (2010) and Brave (2012) and Zootopia (2016)

www.the-numbers.com

I didn’t say it did better than its predecessors. Nothing of the sort.

 

[Miss Rori]

I think the goal posts have moved quite a bit, though, as Migration and Trolls 3 didn't perform spectacularly by pre-pandemic standards.

Yeah, in the end Wonka outlapped all the holiday animated titles by a good margin and left them to fight over scraps. Interesting to consider that because it was very popular overseas and didn't have a blockbuster like Aquaman in the way, it's a way bigger hit than Disney's similarly-conceived Mary Poppins Returns was back in 2018.

I do agree, though, that the Disney branding here is probably working against them because there's no doubt once you see a Disney film that it will eventually end up on Disney+.

Oh yeah, more than anything the pivot to streaming has been disastrous for animated Disney movies. At first they just let it be Pixar's problem, but now...I do wonder how heavily they'll promote Wish whenever it arrives at D+, and whether it actually will get a second wind there and finally get all that shelfwarming merchandise moving. I don't think any of their theatrical titles that did underwhelming box office business has managed to do that since Encanto, and that had the advantage of being a Christmas Day drop.

 

[TsWade2]

I‘m sorry, but Wish has been overly hated unfairly, the critics, the Disney haters, and no offense, you guys. While the movie is not perfect or the best, but I think it’s really a good movie and I enjoyed it. It may not be doing well at the box office, I think Wish is making a comeback in different platforms. It’s doing good on digital when it debuts last Tuesday. It was trending number 4 on top charts. We’ll see how well it does on DisneyPlus. If it’s a hit on DisneyPlus, then it’ll become a classic like Sleeping Beauty and Encanto.

 

[Advisable Joseph]

so I don’t know why it did so poorly at the US box office. It might not have been emotionally impactful enough to go in the Disney Hall of Top Earners, but it seems like it should have done at least ok at the box office.

It was looking to do much better before the reviews per https://www.boxofficepro.com/5-day-...ish-aim-to-bring-out-thanksgiving-moviegoers/, but those reviews and Trolls 3 caused a bomb.

Europe's timing for Wish and Trolls was different, so Trolls had less of an impact.

From a weekend or two ago...

"Wish is proving a sleeper success for Disney, dropping just 3% on its ninth session in cinemas. The animation added £362,026 to reach a £12.2m cume." (UK): https://www.screendaily.com/news/me...fice-with-25m-opening-weekend/5189694.article

"Wish ha superato invece la soglia degli 8,5M (per la precisione, 8.735.840 euro), che lo rende uno dei successi del periodo natalizio": https://cineguru.screenweek.it/2024...55m-dopo-il-weekend-11-14-gennaio-2024-41286/, which means that Wish had climed over 8.5 million euros, becoming a Christmas success.

 

[Miss Rori]

Yeah, the bad reviews and the lukewarm response from the Saturday public preview screenings did a number on this movie. It reminds me a lot of what happened with The Flash, which had a bunch of public surprise screenings in the week leading up to release -- there were people who were excited, then they saw it and...well. (Not to mention all the apologists saying "It's a love letter to DC / Disney"...which doesn't really work when it's made by DC / Disney, trucking out reference after reference just to say "Look at all these things you liked once! Look at them!")

 

[Advisable Joseph]

Not to mention all the apologists saying "It's a love letter to DC / Disney"...which doesn't really work when it's made by DC / Disney, trucking out reference after reference just to say "Look at all these things you liked once! Look at them!"

I'm sorry, but it feels like the "Top Critics" taught people to feel that way about Wish. Why would one say that a 100th anniversary special shouldn't be a love letter to the past unless one is envious?

There definitely a target audience for that in Europe.

 

[Miss Rori]

I do wonder whether we've reached a point where it's harder for "pretty good" movies to make a lot of money at the box office. My sense with Wish was that it was building up quite a lot of momentum until the reviews came out, which were surprisingly negative and killed the momentum completely. Even before the movie was released, the buzz around the film was painting it as another failure from Disney.

I definitely think that the bar has gone up as to what people are willing to support at the box office compared to pre-Covid 2019, when stuff like the Lion King remake could clear a billion without effort. The last two years or so have been littered with massive franchise disappointments -- most obviously Marvel and DC's superhero sagas, but also the most recent Fantastic Beasts, Transformers, Fast & Furious, and Indiana Jones movies, even if the reviews weren't bad. Avatar's one thing, Mission: Impossible's another.

 

[DisneyHead123]

It was looking to do much better before the reviews per https://www.boxofficepro.com/5-day-...ish-aim-to-bring-out-thanksgiving-moviegoers/, but those reviews and Trolls 3 caused a bomb.

Europe's timing for Wish and Trolls was different, so Trolls had less of an impact.

From a weekend or two ago...

"Wish is proving a sleeper success for Disney, dropping just 3% on its ninth session in cinemas. The animation added £362,026 to reach a £12.2m cume." (UK): https://www.screendaily.com/news/me...fice-with-25m-opening-weekend/5189694.article

"Wish ha superato invece la soglia degli 8,5M (per la precisione, 8.735.840 euro), che lo rende uno dei successi del periodo natalizio": https://cineguru.screenweek.it/2024...55m-dopo-il-weekend-11-14-gennaio-2024-41286/, which means that Wish had climed over 8.5 million euros, becoming a Christmas success.

I guess it’s hard for me to imagine that parents pay all that much attention to reviews, because I could care less. If I’m taking a preschooler to a movie I’m not expecting much, other than it not terrify my kid. But maybe other parents do things differently… or, as I suspect, maybe the audience for “kids movies” is comprised largely of young adults these days. Young adults I think would be more influenced by reviews, buzz, and social media.

 

[TsWade2]

I guess it's not coming to DisneyPlus, because Disney is too ashamed of Wish since it flopped and it might be a forgotten.......I need to stop doing that!

 

[Disney Irish]

I guess it's not coming to DisneyPlus, because Disney is too ashamed of Wish since it flopped and it might be a forgotten.......I need to stop doing that!

Wish will be on D+ as soon as Disney is ready for it to be there. They are likely trying to give every opportunity for it to make money in all other places first, including digital where it is now. My guess is it’ll come to D+ sometime by Spring at the latest, so maybe March or April.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Wish will be on D+ as soon as Disney is ready for it to be there. They are likely trying to give every opportunity for it to make money in all other places first, including digital where it is now. My guess is it’ll come to D+ sometime by Spring at the latest, so maybe March or April.

It would be quite a move if Disney decided not to release the film to Disney+ just to punish Disney fans for not seeing it in theatres!

 

[Disney Irish]

It would be quite a move if Disney decided not to release the film to Disney+ just to punish Disney fans for not seeing it in theatres!

Bad Disney fans, no soup for you…

 

[Phroobar]

It would be quite a move if Disney decided not to release the film to Disney+ just to punish Disney fans for not seeing it in theatres!

I don't think Disney fans would even notice or care.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It would be quite a move if Disney decided not to release the film to Disney+ just to punish Disney fans for not seeing it in theatres!

Haven't Disney fans been punished enough?

 

[TsWade2]

It would be quite a move if Disney decided not to release the film to Disney+ just to punish Disney fans for not seeing it in theatres!

Yeah, let’s not go there! I’m trying to get out of this doom and gloom nonsense! At least it’s doing well on digital.

 

[brideck]

I guess it’s hard for me to imagine that parents pay all that much attention to reviews, because I could care less. If I’m taking a preschooler to a movie I’m not expecting much, other than it not terrify my kid. But maybe other parents do things differently… or, as I suspect, maybe the audience for “kids movies” is comprised largely of young adults these days. Young adults I think would be more influenced by reviews, buzz, and social media.

There have been people on this forum who (if I've interpreted their comments correctly) have said stuff like "I'll see a movie if (I'm told) it's good", and then went on to talk, not about critics, but about the Internet writ large (YTers, etc.) as being the source for that truth. I have no idea of the age/demographics of those people, but I wonder how pervasive that sort of attitude is.

I'm not really in a relatable position since I see so many movies, but in the cases where I bother to look I tend to use a Metacritic score as an expectations setter. Crossing that with the genre/purpose of the film can give me a pretty good idea of what I'm getting into. In Wish's case, I think its 47 was unfairly low, and if you read a lot of the top-line summations they're not really about the movie at all, just complaining about the 100th anniversary or "needless" references, etc. before giving it a middle-of-the-road score. I'll also point out that Super Mario got a 46, and it is also a reference-filled movie, so I think that's a particular facet of these movies that critics just aren't very warm to.

 

[Miss Rori]

Is there a reliable chart for how movies sell/rent on digital? The ones I've found have Wish at #8 at best right now or falling out of the Top 10 (Wonka is #1 right now, must have happened this week), which suggests the word-of-mouth isn't kicking in.

 

[Miss Rori]

In Wish's case, I think its 47 was unfairly low, and if you read a lot of the top-line summations they're not really about the movie at all, just complaining about the 100th anniversary or "needless" references, etc. before giving it a middle-of-the-road score. I'll also point out that Super Mario got a 46, and it is also a reference-filled movie, so I think that's a particular facet of these movies that critics just aren't very warm to.

Which makes sense -- references mean very little to those who aren't steeped in "the lore" and with Wish at least also runs the risk of just reminding people of all the better movies they could be watching instead, or how good Disney animation can be whereas the main story and characters are warmed-over leftovers. Wish isn't that different from Space Jam: A New Legacy in the end: It's celebrating Disney's centennial not by making the best animated fantasy musical possible but making a mediocre one and stuffing it with references to other movies to borrow their glory and promote them to keep the streams on Disney+ flowing.

Edit: I keep coming back to the most direct comparison being The Flash, which also has magical floating spheres featuring references to better movies!