Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[BrianLo]

Not sure what other industry related box office sites (not Disney fan sites) and discussion boards you visit, but the international reception of this film has been debated ever since the film and its casting were announced.

Countless posts in this thread (since removed because of curious reasons) discussed it months ago as well with the expected challenges in Asia among other regions.

Also, I did not imply the film did well domestically - it greatly underperformed the other live action Disney remakes domestically, it was just projected to perform that way so its performance was not a surprise.

I don't do much of reddit, so probably mostly deadline. Fair enough, I just still think there would be better receipts about the unexpected split if they existed as readily as you are implying. It's a bit of a historical re-write to say anyone really had the exact pulse of the film, here at least. I'm certain someone, somewhere got it right, but it wasn't really the prominent take.

It's rare domestic overtakes International. Granted that's a really hard thing for someone to nail down and quantify pre-release, so I'm also not expecting tons of evidence to the contrary. Had domestic really properly missed like International, we'd be discussing a 400 million movie instead.

Also to be fair this doesn't really matter and is totally silly semantics. It wound up where it wound up. I own the fact *I* thought International would do better, that was my personal miss on this one. Even if I never actually explicitly said so. The reception, domestic, reviews, audience scores and cinemascores were what I expected.

 

[Bullseye1967]

I don't do much of reddit, so probably mostly deadline. Fair enough, I just still think there would be better receipts about the unexpected split if they existed as readily as you are implying. It's a bit of a historical re-write to say anyone really had the exact pulse of the film, here at least. I'm certain someone, somewhere got it right, but it wasn't really the prominent take.

It's rare domestic overtakes International. Granted that's a really hard thing for someone to nail down and quantify pre-release, so I'm also not expecting tons of evidence to the contrary. Had domestic really properly missed like International, we'd be discussing a 400 million movie instead.

Also to be fair this doesn't really matter and is totally silly semantics. It wound up where it wound up. I own the fact *I* thought International would do better, that was my personal miss on this one. Even if I never actually explicitly said so. The reception, domestic, reviews, audience scores and cinemascores were what I expected.

Fair enough - we’re talking past each other, but we’re not in much of a disagreement.

You are correct that I cannot imagine somebody pegging it exactly that domestic would do 110% of foreign (as that is dramatically different than any prior remake split), but the idea the foreign market reception would be more challenging than domestic is not a surprise.

This is what honest conversation looks like. Congrats to both of you. We need a lot more of this!

 

[TP2000]

Anyway, when I saw The Little Mermaid, it was in a packed theater. The audience loved it. I live in an area with a slightly higher Black population than white, and a lot of Black mothers and their daughters seemed really happy to have a princess that looks like them. The movie may not be the home run hit at the box office that Disney wanted, but it at least gives a new generation of Black girls a heroine they can look up to and dress up as. A heroine that STAYS a woman of color throughout the movie instead of turning into a frog for 75% of the film.

I love that anecdote. I think it's fabulous that Black moms could take their daughters to a movie and see a starring actress that is Black, if that's what is important to them. I am demographically the polar opposite of a young Black woman ... But I have been a lifelong fan of Motown, and Barry Gordy and Motown's story of very hard work, sheer talent, and great triumph and how they all helped our country achieve all the fabulous civil rights advances we won in the 1960's is inspiring to everyone.

That said, at some point you have to realize that statistically the Black female demographic is only 7% of the nation in the 2020's. There are 335 Million Americans, and only 22 Million of them are Black women aged 1 to 105. Only 4% of the nation are Black females aged 45 or younger, which would be Mermaid's target audience of moms and their daughters.

You can't build a Billion dollar box office by aiming for only 5% or less of the population. You have to get a broader box office appeal to make a Billion dollars. Mermaid didn't do that, for several reasons. But the hard facts and data of US demographics in 2023 would seem to be a big part of that.

 

[Chi84]

I love that anecdote. I think it's fabulous that Black moms could take their daughters to a movie and see a starring actress that is Black, if that's what is important to them. I am demographically the polar opposite of a young Black woman ... But I have been a lifelong fan of Motown, and Barry Gordy and Motown's story of very hard work, sheer talent, and great triumph and how they all helped our country achieve all the fabulous civil rights advances we won in the 1960's is inspiring to everyone.

That said, at some point you have to realize that statistically the Black female demographic is only 7% of the nation in the 2020's. There are 335 Million Americans, and only 22 Million of them are Black women aged 1 to 105. Only 3% of the nation are Black females aged 45 or younger, which would be Mermaid's target audience of moms and their daughters.

You can't build a Billion dollar box office by aiming for only 5% or less of the population. You have to get a broader box office appeal to make a Billion dollars. Mermaid didn't do that, for several reasons. But the hard facts and data of US demographics in 2023 would seem to be a big part of that.

Have you seen The Little Mermaid?

 

[TP2000]

Have you seen The Little Mermaid?

Nope.

Now that you mention it, I haven't even seen the 1989 animated version. But I've been on the ride at DCA at least a dozen times. And I've seen the stage show at Tokyo DisneySea a couple of times in the last 20 years, and been on Scuttle's Scooters there once. And I've seen the Little Mermaid parade float in Paint The Night.

What does that all get me? A 50% off coupon for a churro?

 

[TP2000]

Not sure what other industry related box office sites (not Disney fan sites) and discussion boards you visit, but the international reception of this film has been debated ever since the film and its casting were announced.

Countless posts in this thread (since removed because of curious reasons) discussed it months ago as well with the expected challenges in Asia among other regions.

I went to Google. Back in April and early May of this year, Little Mermaid was projected to get upwards of $300+ Million at the domestic box office, and another $500+ Million at the overseas box office. For a combined global box office of $800 Million or more. There were some industry sources who assumed Mermaid would get $1 Billion globally, just like Aladdin did in 2019.

(Adjusted for inflation, Aladdin got $1.2 Billion in 2023 dollars)

The reality is that Mermaid couldn't really make it to $300 Million domestically, but got close enough. But overseas was a total disaster, and it only got $265 Million. Thus, it was a money losing movie globally. Blame the darn foreigners.

Long-Range Box Office Forecast: The Little Mermaid Prediction

Disney Live-Action remakes do well despite criticism, can this? - check out our Long-Range Box Office Forecast for The Little Mermaid.

moviegainz.com

Live-Action Little Mermaid Predicted To Make Big Box Office, But Can It Beat Aladdin's Opening Weekend?

The next Disney live-action blockbuster is almost here.

www.cinemablend.com

 

[LSLS]

I feel sorry for people who made up their minds about this movie without seeing it. It’s the kind of sweet, joyful movie that is Disney at its best. I thought the performances were stellar and the cinematography was gorgeous!

Honestly I'm one that had made up my mind to an extent (in that I didn't have any desire to see it and there wasn't much that would change my mind). But, part of that is on Disney. The trailer ticked every box of me not wanting to see it. It may have turned out a lot better (I'm not questioning you saying it did FYI), but the trailer was dark, the CGI looked bad, and it showed me it's essentially just the same story with a couple songs from Lin (who, hot take, I'm totally sick of as well, but different topic). It may not have played out like that at all, but the trailer confirmed what someone like me feared would be the case. And, I think what you saw were a lot of people who seemed to be against this before the trailer, had their minds made up after it.

But, this movie has been weird in general. There was so much hate from one side, and so much praise on the other WAY before the movie came out. I think both sides completely had their minds made up already. It was a fast search, so I may be missing it completely, but I have struggled to find where someone wrote "I did not want to see this movie at all, but it was great," OR "I was so excited for this movie when it was announced, but it was not good." I know it feels like such a dead horse at this point, but it really is such a fascinating movie to me from a financial standpoint.

 

[LittleBuford]

But, this movie has been weird in general. There was so much hate from one side, and so much praise on the other WAY before the movie came out. I think both sides completely had their minds made up already. It was a fast search, so I may be missing it completely, but I have struggled to find where someone wrote "I did not want to see this movie at all, but it was great," OR "I was so excited for this movie when it was announced, but it was not good."

My feelings didn’t shift to the same extent as in your hypothetical examples, but I wasn’t especially excited for the film until I saw the trailers, and after watching it, I left a frank review detailing what I liked and didn’t like.

In other words, I would disagree with the claim that we all went into the film with our minds already made up. Some of actually watched it first before deciding what we thought of it!

 

[Chi84]

Nope.

Now that you mention it, I haven't even seen the 1989 animated version. But I've been on the ride at DCA at least a dozen times. And I've seen the stage show at Tokyo DisneySea a couple of times in the last 20 years, and been on Scuttle's Scooters there once. And I've seen the Little Mermaid parade float in Paint The Night.

What does that all get me? A 50% off coupon for a churro?

You win an entirely different prize!

 

[Chi84]

Honestly I'm one that had made up my mind to an extent (in that I didn't have any desire to see it and there wasn't much that would change my mind). But, part of that is on Disney. The trailer ticked every box of me not wanting to see it. It may have turned out a lot better (I'm not questioning you saying it did FYI), but the trailer was dark, the CGI looked bad, and it showed me it's essentially just the same story with a couple songs from Lin (who, hot take, I'm totally sick of as well, but different topic). It may not have played out like that at all, but the trailer confirmed what someone like me feared would be the case. And, I think what you saw were a lot of people who seemed to be against this before the trailer, had their minds made up after it.

But, this movie has been weird in general. There was so much hate from one side, and so much praise on the other WAY before the movie came out. I think both sides completely had their minds made up already. It was a fast search, so I may be missing it completely, but I have struggled to find where someone wrote "I did not want to see this movie at all, but it was great," OR "I was so excited for this movie when it was announced, but it was not good." I know it feels like such a dead horse at this point, but it really is such a fascinating movie to me from a financial standpoint.

My recommendation is to see the movie. It was very well-done. The trailers did not come close to doing it justice.

To be fair, I’m not much invested in how Disney is doing financially today so that has no bearing on how I feel about the film.

 

[GimpYancIent]

My recommendation is to see the movie. It was very well-done. The trailers did not come close to doing it justice.

To be fair, I’m not much invested in how Disney is doing financially today so that has no bearing on how I feel about the film.

There is D +.

 

[Chi84]

Alas, I come with unfortunate news from the Land of the Rising Sun, the "Japanese Miracle" is not happening.

The box office dropped again to only $377,277 for a cumulative total of only $22.7M. Looking at previous live action remakes, when the box office reached this low, there was only another $1-$2M for the rest of the run so we'll be kind and forecast approximately $25M.

For perspective, here is how similar live-action remakes performed in this Disney fanatic market (not adjusted for inflation to help TLM):

Alice in Wonderland: $134M
Beauty and the Beast: $111M
Aladdin: $112M
The Little Mermaid: $25M estimated

I leave it up to the reader to determine what is different in this particular remake compared to its much more successful predecessors of beloved Disney animated classics.

Did you see the film? If you did, what do you think is different compared to the other remakes?

 

[LSLS]

Did you see the film? If you did, what do you think is different compared to the other remakes?

I think it's tough to tell yet. What we don't know is if this is a one off, or if there is a trend on these remakes.

 

[MisterPenguin]

For TLM the 'fatigue' is that it made "only" half a billion instead of a full billion to cover its budget.

Some movies have done worse, others have done better.

So... <shrug>?

 

[Chi84]

I think it's tough to tell yet. What we don't know is if this is a one off, or if there is a trend on these remakes.

What trend?

 

[Chi84]

Nearly all Disney film properties are facing movie-goer fatigue.

The issue is not that TLM is different than other remakes. The issue is that it's just more of the same.

Another poster said there was something different than other remakes. I was asking what it was. I saw the movie and liked it more than the other remakes, but I have to say that I generally prefer live-action to the animated versions.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

When Disney pays itself when it puts its own content on D+ is so fake and stupid.

If D+ did not exist and Disney sold right to put even a loser like TLM to Netflix, they really are lessening the loss.

To do otherwise would be completely irresponsible accounting causing the company to pay more in taxes.

 

[LSLS]

What trend?

So, I've been on the "Don't want to see this for a while," and my reasoning has always been I'm sick of these remakes that are basically the same movie (taking away stuff like Cruela and Maleficent here). I know among friends, I'm not alone. SO, you asked what's different about this movie vs the others. I'm curious if others are like me and just sick of this type of movie, or if we need to dig deeper into reasoning.

Long story short, I'm wondering if this is the start of a trend of people being sick of the remakes, but we won't know if that's the case without some more movies to check against.

 

[Disstevefan1]

To do otherwise would be completely irresponsible accounting causing the company to pay more in taxes.

I will agree, it's important for Disney to move the money around on paper for legal and tax purposes.

They also need to focus on making some money too.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I will agree, it's important for Disney to move the money around on paper for legal and tax purposes.

They also need to focus on making some money too.

If D+ doesn’t pay Disney for content, the streaming service is almost certainly turning a tidy profit. You get that, right?