Disney's Live Action The Little Mermaid

[Casper Gutman]

And Avatar, which conveniently keeps being left out of the equation.

They can’t include that, because that came out last year and then they would have to address the fact that both Strange and Wakanda were big hits. No, somewhere during 2023 audiences decided they wanted “original” (meaning based on decades old IP) films. The change must have happened sometime after March, because Dungeons and Dragons perfectly fits their model for a 2023 hit, was critically acclaimed as much, if not more, then Barbie, and bombed.

Oh, and no one does historical biopics anymore. At all. Except for Elvis. And Blonde. And Till, I Wanna Dance with Somebody, Big George Foreman, House of Gucci, Eyes of Tammy Faye, Being the Ricardo’s, Spencer, Judas and the Black Messiah, Napoleon… yup, no one does historical biopics.

The analysis is incoherent because it’s about feelings.

 

[LittleBuford]

At any rate, I’m well aware that you’ve referred to Avatar, but in terms that explain its success away in order to promote the “Only Disney is failing” narrative. That was the point I was making, and I stand by it.

 

[celluloid]

If you critique someone with wrong facts of what they said, then expect to be corrected.

I was asked about 2023 trends. The winners are non-oversaturated risks.
I answered. With that.
2022 was brought in. Yes, Disney has hits last year.
Disney had no hits this year thus far. (Guardians finale close but no cigar)

 

[Prince-1]

So far 8 out of the top 10 highest grossing movies in 2023 have been sequels or remakes with Super Mario and Barbie being the lone standouts.

Domestic Box Office For 2023

www.boxofficemojo.com

 

[Disstevefan1]

Not even close. Not to get wonky, but at a very high level, the “ultimate” is the discounted cash flows of the film’s expenses and cash inflows.

So the production costs are Year Zero with any inflows discounted back to the Year Zero date as they come in, meaning all future cash flows (including box office receipts 3-4 years after production) are discounted by the time value of money (TVM) rate. Future year inflows like international licensing, broadcast, etc. are worth less as they get discounted back obviously.

Not knowing the specifics of the production deal (talent/director points, etc) obviously, but this current box office (which also then translates to lower streaming/EST/Pay windows/Intl licensing revenues, etc) will lead to a negative ultimate, no question. The only question is the scale of the loss.

But again, this is the wrong question. A company doesn’t invest hundreds of millions dollars and energize the entire global machine around a tentpole to get a zero NPV.

You invest to generate a meaningful, acceptable return - otherwise just put the cash in a T Bill and go to lunch.

This concept of a “breakeven” tentpole (which TLM is definitely not) is a complete financial disaster for a studio, its producers, and investors. I can assure you nobody at Disney is celebrating.

Thanks for the info. Makes sense.

I was rationalizing that breaking even is better than losing money in general.

I am trying to understand what TWDC is doing with these live action remakes.

It does feel to me it's NOT their objective to actually make money, but to re tell and "fix" these movies?



In my mind, TWDC can't possibly think these remakes will make money, it's about "fixing" the movies.

The upcoming Snow White sounds awful in my opinion. Too many changes in characters and plot.

The actress they picked for Snow White at least seems fine to me though.

 

[celluloid]

So far 8 out of the top 10 highest grossing movies in 2023 have been sequels or remakes with Super Mario and Barbie being the lone standouts.

Domestic Box Office For 2023

www.boxofficemojo.com

Again. ROI matters. Oppenheimer will end as a bigger hit than Guardians vol 3 in film revenue terms(no Oppenheimer merch market)

There is quite a gap in those budgets.

Sony did good with Spiderverse. Quality production. Budget of 100 million and it's spaced a good amount of years. It's only the second animated Spidey theatrical release. Not oversaturated in its own world. It is why domestically even Guardians finale could not top it.

As you pointed out. The top two are of the winning grouping because people were .kre.willing to drop their theater dollars.

 

[Prince-1]

Again. ROI matters. Oppenheimer will end as a bigger hit than Guardians vol 3 in film revenue terms(no Oppenheimer merch market)

There is quite a gap in those budgets.

Sony did good with Spiderverse. Quality production. Budget of 100 million and it's spaced a good amount of years. It's only the second animated Spidey theatrical release. Not oversaturated in its own world. It is why domestically even Guardians finale could not top it.

As you pointed out. The top two are of the winning grouping because people were .kre.willing to drop their theater dollars.

You made some statement about original movies that has already have been proven to be false and you keep coming up with your own reasoning about certain movies like Spiderverse 2 and Avatar 2. Now are movies underperforming??? Absolutely. But if you are talking about ROI then it helps to keep in mind that the way people are seeing movies has been changing. With the average ticket prices and concessions skyrocketing and the window for movies being shown exclusively at the theater shrinking, more people are just skipping the theater entirely except for a select small group of movies like Barbie that has some enormous buzz. I saw yesterday that the new Transformers movie is already streaming for free on Paramount+ and that only came out on June 9th.

 

[DKampy]

I don’t think everything Disney has done has sucked this year… although there was some I did not care for

 

[MisterPenguin]

Hey, anyone want to provide a reputable source for the film profit formula that is used constantly here?

Me!

When I started tracking this stuff, I did my due diligence. The formula is the one Deadline and other trade mags use. Other websites corroborated such calculations. When Deadline, e.g., publishes an article with a list of the top ten profitable movies for the year... it's this formula they use.

And the formula exists because studios won't release actual figures. So, it's just a 'rule of thumb' based on data that is sometimes definitively known about a few movies, which is then extrapolated to all movies.

So, here is the reasoning...

In addition to the budget to make the movie, a studio spends *on average* another 50% of that budgetary number on advertising and other administrative fees. I presume the cost of distribution is a big part of that.

And the Box Office receipts are split between the studios and the theaters. Now, when a movie is first released, the studio's cut is more than 50%... maybe more like 60%. But over time as the movie plays, the theater gets a bigger and bigger cut. But that's domestically. Internationally, the theaters get the larger cut. So, as a rule of thumb *on average* the receipts are just considered equally split.

And again, this rule of thumb is because we don't know the real figures. We don't know if a studio decided to spend a minimum on advertising because they didn't think the movie would do well, or splurged on advertising for a blockbuster.

That's why I keep emphasizing it's a "rule of thumb" and "on average." And that a final bottom line of anywhere from a profit of $10M to a loss of $10M should be considered 'break even' because of the vagaries of the black box of studio accounting.

The benefit of the Rule of Thumb is the ability to compare one movie's finances to another with an equal hand and make the comparisons more equitable and not based on 'feeling,' such as when people say, "Surely it made a huge profit because me and all my friends saw it and liked it!!!

 

[MisterPenguin]

Speaking of Avatar2, I did some Internet sleuthing regarding the profit split between a production studio and a Distributor.

1. The studios and distributor could agree on a flat fee the distributor charges the studio to distribute their movie, OR...​

​

2. The studios and the distributor could agree on a profit sharing percentage. The going rate is that the distributor can get anywhere from 10% - 50% of the theatrical profit.​

Avatar2 had a $550M profit (using the rule of thumb).

Disney, as the distributor (as Buena Vista) could then have received anywhere from $55M to $275M from Avatar2.

Anyone want to guess what type of cut Disney asks for?

 

[Phroobar]

Looks like Barbie will be surpassing The Little Mermaid domestically this weekend and only in it's second week.

 

[Jedijax719]

Never speak to soon I guess. This movie isn't going to make it to $300 million after all. It would need a massive expansion at the end of the summer. It's only playing at 208 theaters now.

 

[DKampy]

Never speak to soon I guess. This movie isn't going to make it to $300 million after all. It would need a massive expansion at the end of the summer. It's only playing at 208 theaters now.

Barbenheimer cut off The Little Mermaids legs…I think it could of done it, but theaters needed to get Barbie and Oppenheimer in as many theaters as possible

 

[TP2000]

Barbenheimer cut off The Little Mermaids legs…I think it could of done it, but theaters needed to get Barbie and Oppenheimer in as many theaters as possible

If only the rest of Hollywood had stopped releasing movies throughout the summer, Mermaid would have made more money.

Because the ninth (9th) week of a movie's theater run is where they really make their big box office take?

(I must now beg eternal forgiveness from Miss Marsh, my 5th grade penmanship teacher. I actually have lovely cursive handwriting thanks to her, but using a fat finger on a touchpad is impossible to do in screen grabs, so I just use a clunky version of my printed handwriting. Miss Marsh is not amused, but I think it gets the point across, however unattractively.)

 

[Phroobar]

I noticed Prime has TLM and Elemental for pay per view. Actually I think you can buy them digitally. Anyone know when the Blu-ray will be available?

 

[GimpYancIent]

Barbenheimer cut off The Little Mermaids legs…I think it could of done it, but theaters needed to get Barbie and Oppenheimer in as many theaters as possible

Leg loss is not enough of a descriptor. More Like the prop wash from the override of barbie and Oppenheimer has turned The Little Mermaid into chum.

 

[GimpYancIent]

If only the rest of Hollywood had stopped releasing movies throughout the summer, Mermaid would have made more money.

Because the ninth (9th) week of a movie's theater run is where they really make their big box office take?

View attachment 734045

(I must now beg eternal forgiveness from Miss Marsh, my 5th grade penmanship teacher. I actually have lovely cursive handwriting thanks to her, but using a fat finger on a touchpad is impossible to do in screen grabs, so I just use a clunky version of my printed handwriting. Miss Marsh is not amused, but I think it gets the point across, however unattractively.)

Nope! Competiton is good, manipulation is not. Let the audience decide cleanly, think about it, what portion of the potential viewership will say if the choices are purposely limited then the hell with it and spend both time and money elsewhere?

 

[DCBaker]

I noticed Prime has TLM and Elemental for pay per view. Actually I think you can buy them digitally. Anyone know when the Blu-ray will be available?

DVD/Blu-ray on September 19, 2023 for The Little Mermaid.

 

[Chi84]

I noticed Prime has TLM and Elemental for pay per view. Actually I think you can buy them digitally. Anyone know when the Blu-ray will be available?

I bought in on Prime and was glad I did because everyone in the family loved it. It also comes with a lot of interesting behind the scenes information and interviews.

 

[wtyy21]

Barbie's global gross will be almost $150M more than TLM by end of the weekend - in just 10 days.

‘Barbie’ Pirouettes To Powerhouse $781M Global, ‘Oppenheimer’ A Phenom At $406M WW Through Sunday – International Box Office Actuals Update

Barbie has grossed $780.7M globally through its second weekend while Oppenheimer reached $405.6M

deadline.com

I also expecting in the next few days, Oppenheimer will surpass the total box office number of The Little Mermaid, and depending on Japan's release of Elemental next week (August 4), the overseas numbers of TLM (currently $264M) will be surpassed by Elemental (next week should be around $270M-$290M box office overseas when the film released in Japan), given the unexpected box office turnaround for Elemental.