As for the the D+ money, assuming that as a revenue stream for the film, though not wrong, is certainly misleading. Disney+ can pay $100m and that goes 100% for the film, so it makes it profitable. In that train of thought, they could just pay $2 billion and call it the most profitable remake in history. Does not change the fact there is no money being made.
I know you know, but I want to get the semantics airtight for those who are confused...
So, a small correction: There is indeed revenue from D+ for TLM. It's real and not just on paper or in an accounting spreadsheet.
D+ gets revenue. Real revenue in dollars from subscriptions. If D+ didn't have Disney attached to it, it would have to pay other studios for their content. And it pays that user fee for content it airs from the subscription revenue. Money coming in to D+ pays for TLM to be on D+.
If TLM were to go to Netflix. Netflix would pay Disney for TLM from its subscription revenue. Which is exactly what D+ is doing in order to show TLM. Otherwise, how would one characterize the sub revenue for D+? "It just happens?" Revenue coming into D+ is spent on content. Sometimes to other production companies for content (O Hai! Bluey!) and sometimes to its own Disney studios.
TLM will most definitely not make a profit in the theatrical window. If that is the measure of "a flop", then, it flopped.
But TLM will have other pay windows: digital download, DVD bluray, and then D+, which is taking in money so that it can pay to have TLM on its streamer to entice people to remain subscribed.
It's likely that TLM will, in the post-theatrical window, in all these Pay-2, Pay-3, and so on in all these 'windows' of opportunity will finally break even and not have been a net loss for TWDC. TLM will not be responsible for bankrupting TWDC.
Now, could D+ say it paid WDS $2B dollars for TLM and proclaim it to be one of the most profitable movies ever? Technically... yes. But everyone would know that's a lie. And, in fact, I've never seen Disney comment on how profitable or not any of their movies have been in the post-theatrical window. It's just not a thing that they care to promote.
E.g. Disney will put out a PR statement about how one of their movies had a record-breaking first weekend. But it doesn't put out PR statements about how much money a movie made once it left theaters.
So, there's no incentive (and, in fact, disincentive) to play those games.
Post-theatrical profit or loss is only a thing right now because people who want Disney to fail (or just the remakes to fail) will proclaim that a loss in the theatrical window is... DOOM!!! They forget that for TWDC, the post-theatrical window can reverse the fortunes of "a flop."