Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)

[Basil of Baker Street]

To add perspective to the conversation, post-pandemic animated releases global box office:

Universal Top 6:

Mario: $1.4 billion
Minions: Rise of Gru: $940M
Puss in Boots:The Last Wish: 485M
Sing 2: $405M
Bad Guys: $250M
Trolls 3: about $250M
Average: Approximately $620M


Disney Top 6 (at an average of approximately twice the production budget):

Elemental: $487M
Encanto: $231M
Lightyear: $219M
Wish: about $200M
Raya: $116M
Strange World: $70M
Average: Approximately $220M

Assuming your numbers are correct and throwing out the high and low it's still 520m vs 191m

 

[_caleb]

box office bombs do not drive new subscriber acquisitions on streaming, do not reduce subscriber churn, drive lower licensing fees in downstream foreign pay windows, and decimate any potential home entertainment revenue (PPV, EST).

Source?

A disaster like this (and the long list of recent others) is devastating for their entire downstream ecosystem. The fundamental streaming strategy is built on being driven by global box office hits, not as a place to unceremoniously dump box office failures that were rejected by the global marketplace.

I think you misunderstand Disney's fundamental streaming strategy. It's not just the old release and distribution model, but with streaming instead of DVDs. It's flipped. Direct-to-Consumer literally means cutting out the middlemen, such as movie theaters and cable companies.

Films are filling gaps in the Disney+ content library. They release them theatrically in an attempt to make some quick money and promote the film, which was intended from the beginning to be on Disney+. Obviously they need to cut costs and of course they want to make money at the box office AND through streaming. But it is not proven that a flop at the box office means no/low value on a streaming platform, where a film's job is to attract and keep subscribers.

You don't think a bunch of people are going to watch Wish out of morbid curiosity to see why it flopped? I know many watched Lightyear just to see what all the controversy was about.

 

[_caleb]

The "Disney Shuffle" is always entertaining to watch:

"Parents don't take their kids to the movies!"

(Here's a list of family films doing an average of $600M in box office around the world)

"Uh, uh, it's because of streaming!"

(Here's a list of films that went to other streaming services that were major box office successes)

"Uh, uh, it's because those are based on existing brands!"

(Disney billion dollar box office losses include Marvel characters, Pixar character spinoff, Little Mermaid, etc, etc.)

"Uh, uh, that's because of franchise fatigue!"

Remember kids, Disney losing a billion in box office this year alone is because of streaming, parents not taking their kids to the movies, franchise fatigue (unless it is a competitor than franchises are the key to success), sun got in my eyes, and the dog ate my homework.

Always fascinating and entertaining to experience.

You don't think more than one factor might be at play?

You don't think Disney is differentiated enough in the market that they might be a leading indicator of changing audience trends?

You think a few successful films at other studios mean those other studios aren't also betting everything on new Direct-to-Consumer business models?

 

[brideck]

The "Disney Shuffle" is always entertaining to watch:

"Parents don't take their kids to the movies!"

(Here's a list of family films doing an average of $600M in box office around the world)

"Uh, uh, it's because of streaming!"

(Here's a list of films that went to other streaming services that were major box office successes)

"Uh, uh, it's because those are based on existing brands!"

(Disney billion dollar box office losses include Marvel characters, Pixar character spinoff, Little Mermaid, etc, etc.)

"Uh, uh, that's because of franchise fatigue!"

Remember kids, Disney losing a billion in box office this year alone is because of streaming, parents not taking their kids to the movies, franchise fatigue (unless it is a competitor than franchises are the key to success), sun got in my eyes, and the dog ate my homework.

Always fascinating and entertaining to experience.

Got 'em.

So you don't think that known IPs sell themselves and erase a lot of the motivational barriers to taking your family to the theater? Or that knowing that a movie will be piped into your home 2-3 months later on a well-known service that you already subscribe to would demotivate someone from going to the theaters? Understood.

Not sure why you're lumping Marvel (outside of Marvels) and Little Mermaid into those lists. They have at least broken even at the box office, but just aren't the colossal successes of old. I can count the number of massively successful live-action movies this year on one hand.

 

[Stitch's Grandfather]

They know they need to lower production costs. If they'd only spent $90M on Wish, don't you think a large portion of the audience would have written it off as being a made-for-TV-special?

I'm actually a little concerned that Disney does not know how to constrain costs while producing good content. Their costs are completely out of control, which suggests poor financial management at many levels of the company. Somebody like Peltz might come through with a hatchet.

Disney shouldn't consistently require 2x the resources of their competitors just to get a film to market.

 

[_caleb]

Got it. So your position is that box office bombs that do not generate any global marketplace interest is a POSITIVE for downstream subscriber growth, a POSITIVE for PPV/EST sales, and POSITIVE for downstream licensing deals.

No, this is not my position. I said that box office bombs have not proving to have a negative impact on the value of the film to streaming. This is not the same thing.

Also, my answer is in your ridiculous question. Box office bombs may indeed generate interest in a film on the part of people who already subscribe to a streaming service. Streaming subscribers are likely more diversified and segmented audiences, a film that flopped at the box office may indeed find a following there.

Imagine how shocked they are at Universal that Mario's $1.4 billion global box office has translated into LESS subscribers for Peacock, MORE churn from existing subscribers, LOWER PPV/EST sales, and LOWER downstream licensing deals.

This is nonsense. Nobody is saying box office success hurts a film at streaming.

Apparently, losing $200M+ on a theatrical release is a POSITIVE and will do wonders down through the ecosystem! I mean, they must be crushing it from Strange World's new subscribers alone!

Again, it seems like you don't understand. And your mocking and condescending are getting in the way of honest discussion. No one is arguing that Disney's recent box office flops weren't box office flops. I'm saying that you're super quick to judge new initiatives only by old standards without acknowledging that Disney has adopted a radically different model that needs to take into account additional metrics.

 

[WorldExplorer]

Puss in Boots: The Last Wish was made for 90 million and I've repeatedly seen people say it looks better than Wish. It managed to make a bit over 450 million.

Wish's art style is also getting a lot of criticism, so it's not like the 200 million really helped.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Dear Santa, All I want for Christmas is for Disney to make a movie that makes more money at the box office than it cost to make and market said movie. - Thanks.

 

[brideck]

Disney would have to start outsourcing animation in order to bring their budgets in-line with others' movies, no? I always thought that the "Made in America" aspect of Disney movies was supposed to be a feature of the brand.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

so is this unlikely to drop on D+ in time for Christmas?

 

[mickEblu]

Disney would have to start outsourcing animation in order to bring their budgets in-line with others' movies, no? I always thought that the "Made in America" aspect of Disney movies was supposed to be a feature of the brand.

It was but it hardly matters with the content they’ve been pumping out and when they have CMs that can have tattoo sleeves and beards. May as well save a few bucks. What brand image are they holding onto?

 

[brideck]

It was but it hardly matters with the content they’ve been pumping out and when they have CMs that can have tattoo sleeves and beards. May as well save a few bucks. What brand image are they holding onto?

I thought we were pro-American, anti-globalism here. Wouldn't that just be something else Disney would be cudgeled with if they started farming movies out to cheap Asian art houses?

 

[mickEblu]

I thought we were pro-American, anti-globalism here. Wouldn't that just be something else Disney would be cudgeled with if they started farming movies out to cheap Asian art houses?

I don’t know. My point is it being made in America hardly matters to me personally when male CMs are running around Disneyland with long painted fingernails and fairies at Bibiddi Bobbidi Boutique have mustaches.

That image is dead and gone.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Why do Americans spend over $100 billion on lottery tickets every year even though they know they will almost certainly not win? Humans are horrible at understanding odds and will do pretty much anything with a massive benefit if there's even the slimmest of chances it might happen.

If the grand deceit at the heart of the film is equivalent to people buying lottery tickets or betting in a casino when they almost certainly won't win, that gives some perspective as to why it all feels a little ambivalent at least to some people.

 

[TP2000]

I don’t know. My point is that image they had is damn near gone so it being made in America hardly matters to me personally when male CMs are running around Disneyland with long painted fingernails and fairies at Bibiddi Bobbidi Boutique have mustaches.

That image is dead and gone.

Agreed.

Isn't there a Disney animation studio now based up in Vancouver? So Disney is already outsourcing to foreigners to save on production costs.

Their image is tarnished and is no longer this...

 

[mickEblu]

Agreed.

Isn't there a Disney animation studio now based up in Vancouver? So Disney is already outsourcing to foreigners to save on production costs.

Their image is tarnished and is no longer this...

View attachment 758987

Also I know they’re not outsourcing to OLC but isn’t OLC out Disney’ing Disney?

 

[TP2000]

Also I know they’re not outsourcing to OLC but isn’t OLC out Disney’ing Disney?

By leaps and bounds. Everywhere in their resort, and every day.

 

[Farerb]

Disney would have to start outsourcing animation in order to bring their budgets in-line with others' movies, no? I always thought that the "Made in America" aspect of Disney movies was supposed to be a feature of the brand.

It will most likely happen now that their animators have unionized.

 

[brideck]

If the grand deceit at the heart of the film is equivalent to people buying lottery tickets or betting in a casino when they almost certainly won't win, that gives some perspective as to why it all feels a little ambivalent at least to some people.

Equivalent in the sense of what would motivate someone to participate. The stakes -- giving up your life's dream vs shelling out $2 for a lotto ticket -- are far different.

 

[brideck]

You still don't get it.

Disney is now such a powerful brand that they are at the forefront of changing global consumer tastes and are winning because they alone have convinced customers around the world to reject their theatrical films in favor of potentially waiting to see them at home - or something.

Not sure how that's your takeaway from the D+ argument. Mine is based on how people are lazy and cheap. You only have to look at how people talk about every streaming service. "You want me to pay $12? A month? For access to more entertainment than I could possibly consume in my lifetime? How dare you? Way too expensive."