Why does Universal not have this problem? Even the hard core Disney fans didn't show up. In fact I would bet most of you didn't show up to see it. Why? If we are such fans why are we there first showing?
So we're on the same page, which Universal movies are we talking about here? This year, they've managed two viral successes in
Oppenheimer and
M3GAN. The rest of their biggest movies have all been known entities as part of franchises (e.g.
Fast X, which was hardly a success anyway) or based on well-known properties (e.g.
Mario,
FNaF), and those are the movies that are still getting people to see them in theaters. Generally, audiences aren't showing up for things that they don't already recognize.
Is the question about why people don't wait for them to be on Peacock? (I'm assuming that's where they all go.) I don't have Peacock (it only has 60% of the number of D+ subscribers in the US, after all), so I don't know if they have a consistent, well-known, and fast release plan for getting their movies onto the platform. The only one I know about for sure is
FNaF, which did inexplicably get a day and date Peacock release, but still managed to do well in the theaters. Horror is a genre that has also still done well in the theaters (the freaking
Nun II almost made a $100 million), so people have turned out in some numbers. It probably could have been an even bigger smash without the Peacock release.
If you're comparing to
Trolls 3, I'd suggest that everyone would certainly still be calling
Wish a bomb, even if it were doing the marginally better numbers that
Trolls has pulled in.
Edit: All that to say, that I do think Disney has had marketing/messaging/target audience problems with some of these recent movies. Your elevator pitch to the public has to be understandable in a single sentence and appeal to the audience you're seeking. Disney's budgets imply that they're going for a wide, all-ages audience, so the pitch for
Wish had to be something like "a young woman and an adorable magical star team up to defeat an evil king." But they put too much nuance/complication into the evilness of the king, and then revealed that nuance in the trailers. Mass confusion.