Wish (Walt Disney Animation - November 2023)

TsWade2

Well-Known Member
I have to remember not to engage with the Disney Hate Club who all seriously need to find another hobby.
point pointing GIF by Shalita Grant
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
The problem with the "War on Families" narrative is that the numbers just don't bear that out as being the truth. Disney's RepTrak numbers have fallen since Florida's government started ginning up the culture war against the company from 78.1 in 2020 all the way to 73.8, which is still a (checks notes) "Strong" reputation. And even if all of the roughly 33% of Americans who believe that same-sex relationships are morally wrong (annual Gallup poll) were to be so turned off as to immediately stop buying tickets to Disney movies, that wouldn't account for why ticket sales are off by well over 50%. And it also wouldn't make sense in the face of the fact that Lightyear has been Disney's 2nd-best performing animated movie at the box office since the pandemic. The "audacity" of the same-sex kiss in that movie was so widely circulated in the circles that would have been offended by its inclusion that you should have seen the biggest impact there.
 

mickEblu

Well-Known Member
The problem with the "War on Families" narrative is that the numbers just don't bear that out as being the truth. Disney's RepTrak numbers have fallen since Florida's government started ginning up the culture war against the company from 78.1 in 2020 all the way to 73.8, which is still a (checks notes) "Strong" reputation. And even if all of the roughly 33% of Americans who believe that same-sex relationships are morally wrong (annual Gallup poll) were to be so turned off as to immediately stop buying tickets to Disney movies, that wouldn't account for why ticket sales are off by well over 50%. And it also wouldn't make sense in the face of the fact that Lightyear has been Disney's 2nd-best performing animated movie at the box office since the pandemic. The "audacity" of the same-sex kiss in that movie was so widely circulated in the circles that would have been offended by its inclusion that you should have seen the biggest impact there.

I think you are trying to oversimplify the whole thing. You have to remember Lightyear was the first time Disney did anything like that and it was quite shocking for a lot of folks. That was a big turning point and I think some people were caught off guard. This is why you don’t see the biggest impact there. Also, it’s based on the gazillion dollar Toy Story franchise which tends to put some butts in seats. You are also assuming that anyone pro Gay marriage is pro same sex kiss in Lightyear which is far from the truth and doesn’t account for many parents who are not comfortable with that.
 
The problem with the "War on Families" narrative is that the numbers just don't bear that out as being the truth. Disney's RepTrak numbers have fallen since Florida's government started ginning up the culture war against the company from 78.1 in 2020 all the way to 73.8, which is still a (checks notes) "Strong" reputation. And even if all of the roughly 33% of Americans who believe that same-sex relationships are morally wrong (annual Gallup poll) were to be so turned off as to immediately stop buying tickets to Disney movies, that wouldn't account for why ticket sales are off by well over 50%. And it also wouldn't make sense in the face of the fact that Lightyear has been Disney's 2nd-best performing animated movie at the box office since the pandemic. The "audacity" of the same-sex kiss in that movie was so widely circulated in the circles that would have been offended by its inclusion that you should have seen the biggest impact there.

Quantifying the individual impact of any of these issues is hard. But I don't know that anyone is saying it's the only reason. Actually the opposite: some folks are denying that Disney's reputation decline is real or that the reputation decline is causing any material impact on revenue. Even mentioning the topic seems to get folks really upset.

Regardless of the reasons for the change in movie revenue, I think there's a ton of fundamental questions that Disney needs to ask: what is the "right size" for movie budgets if the size of the revenue pie has shrunk? Does Disney+ provide enough revenue to shrug off issues at the box office? Does Disney+ need big theatrical productions in order to sustain subscription levels, even if those movies are considered a flop? Is Disney+ priced appropriately? Are there simple partnerships or deals that could be offered to Disney+ subscribers to get them out to the movie theater more often?
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
I think that's the first time I've seen anyone who brought numbers into a conversation accused as "oversimplifying" things. If anyone is generalizing and projecting here, I don't think it's me.

You are also assuming that anyone pro Gay marriage is pro same sex kiss in Lightyear which is far from the truth and doesn’t account for many parents who are not comfortable with that.

To echo an earlier poster, I was specific and careful about what poll I cited. This one was "Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. How about gay or lesbian relations?" The people who answer morally wrong to that are exactly the people we're talking about here. Because if you don't believe it's morally wrong, why on Earth would you be squeamish about it in a movie? The legality of marriage is a separate polled question.

You're also completely discounting that there are people who are happy with Disney's decisions in this space and make a concerted effort to seek out and support this entertainment because of that. Hint: There may be some of those people in this very thread, and based on the "Like" war, they're equal to or greater than the number who share your conclusions.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
Quantifying the individual impact of any of these issues is hard. But I don't know that anyone is saying it's the only reason. Actually the opposite: some folks are denying that Disney's reputation decline is real or that the reputation decline is causing any material impact on revenue. Even mentioning the topic seems to get folks really upset.

Regardless of the reasons for the change in movie revenue, I think there's a ton of fundamental questions that Disney needs to ask: what is the "right size" for movie budgets if the size of the revenue pie has shrunk? Does Disney+ provide enough revenue to shrug off issues at the box office? Does Disney+ need big theatrical productions in order to sustain subscription levels, even if those movies are considered a flop? Is Disney+ priced appropriately? Are there simple partnerships or deals that could be offered to Disney+ subscribers to get them out to the movie theater more often?

Feel free to read and engage with any of my earlier posts where I attempt to discuss the impact of D+ on box office returns. I'm not the one focusing on reputation/cultural issues or claiming it's the only/primary cause of declines.
 

mickEblu

Well-Known Member
I think that's the first time I've seen anyone who brought numbers into a conversation accused as "oversimplifying" things. If anyone is generalizing and projecting here, I don't think it's me.



To echo an earlier poster, I was specific and careful about what poll I cited. This one was "Regardless of whether or not you think it should be legal, for each one, please tell me whether you personally believe that in general it is morally acceptable or morally wrong. How about gay or lesbian relations?" The people who answer morally wrong to that are exactly the people we're talking about here. Because if you don't believe it's morally wrong, why on Earth would you be squeamish about it in a movie? The legality of marriage is a separate polled question.

You're also completely discounting that there are people who are happy with Disney's decisions in this space and make a concerted effort to seek out and support this entertainment because of that. Hint: There may be some of those people in this very thread, and based on the "Like" war, they're equal to or greater than the number who share your conclusions.

You tried to make the false correlation that Lightyear having higher numbers than some movies that came after it meant that people didn’t have a big issue with the “kiss” and I explained why numbers alone don’t tell the whole story. Some of you guys are in denial. I don’t know what else to say.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
You tried to make the false correlation that Lightyear having higher numbers than some movies that came after it meant that people didn’t have a big issue with the “kiss” and I explained why numbers alone don’t tell the whole story. Some of you guys are in denial. I don’t know what else to say.

Right, right. Which is why Elemental has the biggest post-pandemic BO. It's not like that came after the "damage" of Lightyear or anything. It even had a minor NB character, which is even more "3rd rail" than gay characters for people.
 
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crispy

Well-Known Member
That is fine if that’s your opinion… but the poster was stating how The Disney Brand was wholesome family branding… and Disney is not that anymore…I would like to know how Wish reflects that

I think the point is that people have lost trust in the Disney brand. Even if Wish is "wholesome," people aren't going to blindly spend money on seeing it. The audience has been burned (some by Disney politics, some by mediocre movies, some by franchise fatigue, some by the constant live action retreads). Most people can find a reason to hate Disney right now.

Good word of mouth can overcome this (see Elemental), but since Wish had bad reviews that isn't happening. The trust in the brand is gone for many people.
 
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brideck

Well-Known Member
I think the point is that people have lost trust in the Disney brand. Even if Wish is "wholesome," people aren't going to blindly spend money on seeing. Good word of mouth can overcome this (see Elemental), but since Wish had bad reviews that isn't happening.

The trust in the brand is gone for many people.

I cited the trust metric not that long ago. It is reduced slightly, but by no means "gone," and certainly not enough to reduce ticket sales by over 50%. What's true for you and your personal experience is not true writ large.
 

mickEblu

Well-Known Member
Right, right. Which is why Elemental has the biggest post-pandemic BO. It's not like that came after the "damage" of Lightyear or anything. It even had a minor NB character, which is even more "3rd rail" than gay characters for people.

When did I say that the DEI stuff was the only factor? Elemental was a good movie. The brand has been damaged but it’s not irreparable for probably most people. Elemental didn’t do great out the gate because the loss of faith/ trust by the people. Then the word got out that it was not only a good movie but also not “woke” (only woke-ish). That’s the reason the movie had legs.
 

brideck

Well-Known Member
When did I say that the DEI stuff was the only factor? Elemental was a good movie. The brand has been damaged but it’s not irreparable for probably most people. Elemental didn’t go great out the gate because the loss of faith/ trust by the people. Then the word got out that it was not only a good movie but also not “woke” (only woke-ish). That’s the reason the movie had legs.

You don't need to say it. Having it be the only topic that you consistently engage with in this thread shows how you feel about the matter. If you think there are other factors, please share those thoughts.

Care to educate me on the difference between woke and woke-ish? I loved Elemental and it is hands-down the most diverse movie that Pixar has ever made. People may not have noticed because they were dressed up like fire or water, but there's racial diversity (truly the movie is largely about race), a strong female lead, and a weepy empath as the main male character.
 

Miss Rori

Well-Known Member
The problem with the "War on Families" narrative is that the numbers just don't bear that out as being the truth. Disney's RepTrak numbers have fallen since Florida's government started ginning up the culture war against the company from 78.1 in 2020 all the way to 73.8, which is still a (checks notes) "Strong" reputation. And even if all of the roughly 33% of Americans who believe that same-sex relationships are morally wrong (annual Gallup poll) were to be so turned off as to immediately stop buying tickets to Disney movies, that wouldn't account for why ticket sales are off by well over 50%.
Yeah, I think the culture war narrative leaves a lot of factors out. It's generally agreed that family animation as a whole has been off its box-office game since the pandemic due in part to multiple films, not just Disney/Pixar titles, ending up straight to streaming, with Illumination and Dreamworks' various modestly-budgeted titles being the luckiest due in part to having open-ended theatrical windows, often at times of year where there wasn't a ton of direct competition (Sing 2, Minions: The Rise of Gru, Puss in Boots - The Last Wish, and of course The Super Mario Bros. Movie as the examples; we'll see how Migration does next weekend). Besides those, there's Across the Spider-Verse, which managed to defy both superhero fatigue and family animation malaise despite featuring non-white protagonists, and - even if it wasn't quite profitable - Elemental, which hung on thanks in part to the open-ended run.

Theories that the Marvel films suffered for being "too diverse" don't acknowledge DC has only had one legitimate box office success story since the pandemic with The Batman. (Also, beyond Spider-Man No Way Home and GOTG Vol. 3 the most successful MCU movie post-pandemic was the Black Panther sequel and it didn't even feature its original lead!) If anything, it's what a friend of mine calls the "glass cliff" theory - years and years into the "reign of superheroes", just as audiences began to tire of the whole business, that's when it became okay to feature female/non-white leads regularly. Then when they underperform, the executives don't have to admit that the well ran dry or the movies themselves weren't good enough or were hard to follow because of the now too-dense continuity (the streaming shows only arrived during the pandemic). Similarly, Star Wars seems to have suffered in its post-movie age for being too desperate to please "the real fans" with most of its shows focusing on cultishly loved side characters from the original trilogy or expanded universe, despite this leaving less of an "in" for potential newer fans or just casual ones.

And if Disney isn't a "wholesome family brand" anymore...where is the chunk of the potential audience that wants that going to go to? It ain't to Nickelodeon or Cartoon Network. No major streaming service has come up with a breakout hit show for kids, especially little kids, comparable to a Spongebob Squarepants or Bluey. No direct-to-streaming animated feature on those has found the exposure of even a lesser Disney title. In particular, Max gutted its family animation and live-action offerings over the past year (including 1950s-onward Looney Tunes shorts and their back catalog of Sesame Street episodes).

Going back to Wish's failure, this was just not a movie that was exciting the masses. Its promotional campaign from the first teaser through the first full-length trailer was half-hearted, and they never found a hook to capture audiences with. (It's been stated elsewhere, but who cares about a corporation's 100th anniversary?) The animation looked off to a lot of people, and the ads had trouble with the crucial big W's in pushing it: Who is Asha (besides a bit of a ditz)? What does she want; what is so bad about not everybody getting their wishes? Why is Magnifico a threat in a kingdom where things are pretty good under his rule, and why does Star come to her to help?

I also agree that there were a lot of interesting ideas sanded off, and I think it may have been because Disney was so scared of offending anyone. If Magnifico (and his wife!) are deceitful despots from the start (rather than him being misguided and from there wicked) and people are clearly suffering under their reign - if their wishes ended up being truly desperate, meaningful things like "Food on the table" or "A cure for illness" - it's even easier for people to read the political allegory they like or don't like into the story than it's been with the final product. Can't have a romance in the movie between Asha and Star because boys hate romance (Corporate Disney HATES the brand being perceived as girly!) and "girlbosses" think they make the woman weak. And the setting is intentionally supposed to be all things to all people (rather than the distinct cultural setting of Coco, Encanto, or an actual fairy or folk tale adaptation) so no one feels "left out", even if it means the Teens don't get actual characterizations because they're not gonna sell toys like Star and Valentino will so why focus on them?
 

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