Will There Every Be a 5th Major Park?

[cheezbat]

I think that number is way low. Animal Kingdom cost $1 billion in 1998 dollars (roughly $1.3 in 2010 dollars), and most people still consider it an "incomplete" park. A new park, done right (i.e. Animal Kingdom with Beastly Kingdom) would probably run about $2 billion. That being said, the Dream and Fantasy cost about $1 billion each, so once they're done, the investment spending for Parks and Resorts (if it continues) will likely be redirected towards the parks.

Actually, from what i was told, the park cost $700 Million after all the initial cuts (Beastly Kingdom, anyone?). If they had kept all the plans, it would have been slightly over a billion. That extra $300 million or so would definitely have been worth it.

 

[flavious27]

I think the best idea is to branch out further, much further. The world's largest indoor waterpark based somewhere other than CA and FL. Maybe the D.C. or Atlantic city area. If a fifth park will simply draw attendance from others in FL and land is not available in Disneyland area or is too expensive, why not go somewhere else? Capitalize on the densely packed East Coast cities that need something to do other than casinos and seasonal theme parks that are so-so. The Marvel or even ESPN sports based theme would work well, and ESPN is where all the money is currently. In Atlantic City you could partner up with one of the struggling casino chains who have the hotels and the land, so the overhead is much lower than one might think. Right now AC needs something to save it, and Disney can operate a year round indoor waterpark that would definitely get my business.

Disney wouldn't go near AC, that place is awash in corruption, crime and chaos. Also, it is in a negative growth period that does not show signs of ending. If Disney is going to build a large waterpark, they will want their own hotels and shopping on the same property, while having the land to expand to more attractions.

 

[flavious27]

They are spending 1.2 Billion just to fix DCA during the 2009-12 time frame, and that only buys them a half dozen new rides (2 major, 4 minor) and lots of pretty detailing on surfaces and areas that lacked pretty detailing previously.

If they can spend 1.2 Billion to do that type of quality work at DCA, which is an unprecedented thing to do to an exsiting theme park and yet doesn't get them near the size of building an entire park, then I would peg the cost of a quality theme park at around 3 Billion instead of just 1 Billion.

Of course, you could spend 1 Billion to build a new park, but then that would put you right back into the position that DCA was in when it opened in 2001. You'd just need to spend a couple Billion more over the next decade trying to fix the bad perception people had of the place on opening day.

It's less expensive to do it right the first time.

EDIT: Oh, just saw your post right above mine! You already addressed some of that, and great thoughts there. It's truly amazing what they are doing to DCA (I just strolled through yesterday afternoon after work, and am still floored by it all). It's fascinating to think what could be done if they attempted the same thing with one or two of the existing WDW parks.

I believe that disney won't screw up a new gate at wdw and there would be the land to not compromise.

 

[flavious27]

I pose the question right back at you... Why build a new park at WDW? I'm really not trying to be a jerk, just take a step back and look at it logically.

Outside of our fan wish to have something new to go to, I really don't see how it makes real world sense for Disney to build a fifth gate.

It isn't like our vacations are getting longer. Normal people just dont have more than a week to spend and a fifth park would likely canabalize attendance from the existing ones. It isn't like more people wil come in droves if it is constructed. Animal Kingdom basically confirmed that whole the market continues to grow by a percentage point or two, a new gate doesn't cause a huge jump in new tourists.

What may be viable is just what is being discussed here, long term master planned additions to the existing properties. Imagine if all the parks had as many attraction offerings as Disneyland. 250 attractions in four well built out theme parks would really justify an increase in return visitorship even mores than it does now. It may increase the frequency by which people visit.

I see the biggest financial benefit to the company is not only having people stay longer, but by driving the traffic up at the other three existing parks which would in turn increase merchandise and food sales. If they actually set a goal of getting Epcot to MK level attendance (17 million / year) and then set out to do the same at the other parks imagine what an amazing place WDW would become.

A 5th gate would do the same thing that the other 4 gates have accomplished, fulfilling a specific genre. MK is the all family park. Epcot is the educational, world fair park. DHS is the studio, movie based park. DAK is a zoo, animal based park.

A fifth gate could cover literature; classic and modern along with comics. IOA is based on this genre. A 5th gate doesn't have to be all thrill and e-rides, nor does it have to be completely finished at opening.

 

[juniorthomas]

I pose the question right back at you... Why build a new park at WDW? I'm really not trying to be a jerk, just take a step back and look at it logically.

Outside of our fan wish to have something new to go to, I really don't see how it makes real world sense for Disney to build a fifth gate.

It isn't like our vacations are getting longer. Normal people just dont have more than a week to spend and a fifth park would likely canabalize attendance from the existing ones. It isn't like more people wil come in droves if it is constructed. Animal Kingdom basically confirmed that whole the market continues to grow by a percentage point or two, a new gate doesn't cause a huge jump in new tourists.

What may be viable is just what is being discussed here, long term master planned additions to the existing properties. Imagine if all the parks had as many attraction offerings as Disneyland. 250 attractions in four well built out theme parks would really justify an increase in return visitorship even mores than it does now. It may increase the frequency by which people visit.

I see the biggest financial benefit to the company is not only having people stay longer, but by driving the traffic up at the other three existing parks which would in turn increase merchandise and food sales. If they actually set a goal of getting Epcot to MK level attendance (17 million / year) and then set out to do the same at the other parks imagine what an amazing place WDW would become.

Go back and read the thread. Someone asked if anyone thought they would make a new park. I said "I think its reasonable to think they could add something within the next ten years or so."

I'm not on the we need a 5th gate bandwagon. I simply answered a question.

 

[juniorthomas]

That's a fair point - with that logic they wouldn't have buillt the Animal Kingdom.

I just think that they could reasonably spend a billion dollars on the existing parks and we would still be wanting more.

Take a look at the DCA investment:

• Re-theme Orange Stinger into Silly Symphony Swings
• Re-theme Mulholland Madness into Goofy's Sky School
• Replace Golden Dreams with Little Mermaid
• Add theming to Paradise Pier
• Re-theme Sun Wheel into Mickey's Fun Wheel
• Replace Games on the Board Walk
• Re-theme Entrance plaza
• Add Red Car Trolleys
• Add Carsland, to feature 3 new attractions including Radiator Springs Racers

As far as I know, Toy Story Midway Mania and World of Color were not included in the 1.2 billion investment into California Adventure. The vast majority of that money seems to be for Carsland, with a huge portion of that investment in Radiator Springs Racers.

The issues with the Disney World parks aren't as extreme from a theming standpoint, bu they are from an attraction and dead space standpoint. The same amount of investment could certainly be spread across the WDW parks and accomplish quite a bit.

For Magic Kingdom, an additional E-Ticket (Tron) could be the only thing that the Magic Kingdom sees. Epcot could probably see the usage of existing infrastructure/attractions with a significant enhancement to 1 or 2 things (New Imagination Attraction for example).

This would bring them to the Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios. The Animal Kingdom is in need of the most work, but it would all start with a major expansion that would include multiple attractions. It doesn't have the theming issues like DCA so the money allocation can be largely devoted to new additions. Hollywood Studios is a bit trickier but could also use a significant expansion (Carsland or something else).

This might be a good hypothetical discussion for a future podcast or at the very least forum discussion, but if Disney were to allocate a billion dollars to the parks, I would divide the demand as such:

Animal Kingdom: $500 million
Hollywood Studios: $300 million
Epcot: $100 million
Magic Kingdom: $100 million

Now because it doesn't seem that this is in the cards right now, the equivalent of this type of mass investment will probably take place over a longer period of time than what's currently happening in DCA. I think that after the types of improvements that this would bring then it's far more realistic to talk about a 5th gate. Until then, I wouldn't count on it.

I like your strategy, but you know everyone will have a different idea on how to split a billion dollars between the four parks. Logically, it would make sense to spend the money that way so each park could, in theory, be on the same level with the others.

Seems they do things far more piecemeal lately. FLE seems to be the exception to making/upgrading one ride at a time.

 

[juniorthomas]

Disney wouldn't go near AC, that place is awash in corruption, crime and chaos. Also, it is in a negative growth period that does not show signs of ending. If Disney is going to build a large waterpark, they will want their own hotels and shopping on the same property, while having the land to expand to more attractions.

I agree. AC is a blackhole that nobody should want to touch, let alone Disney. Furthermore, I feel like expansion outside of Anaheim/Orlando in the US is incredibly unlikely. After the failed DisneyQuest plan in Philadelphia, I'm sure Disney is not as interested in setting up anything that isn't an expansion on their own land.

I'm interested to see how Aulani does, in fact.

 

[juniorthomas]

A 5th gate would do the same thing that the other 4 gates have accomplished, fulfilling a specific genre. MK is the all family park. Epcot is the educational, world fair park. DHS is the studio, movie based park. DAK is a zoo, animal based park.

A fifth gate could cover literature; classic and modern along with comics. IOA is based on this genre. A 5th gate doesn't have to be all thrill and e-rides, nor does it have to be completely finished at opening.

You have to admit, its an innovative idea. How often are people on these boards screaming for ideas that were passed on by Disney years ago? (BK?) Literature, while seemingly an extension of FL, is a pretty good starting point.

 

[GrumpyFan]

I would like to think a 5th gate is reasonable, perhaps someday, but not yet. I think there is a lot they can do right now with the parks they already have to increase capacity.

However, I like to look at the numbers and see what they say. The estimates for 2010 aren't out yet, but it can be assumed that they at least stayed close to where they were in 2009. We can guesstimate that there were about 47 million visitors in 2010. That would put the average growth rate since 1999, the year after DAK opened, at 2.6%. IF WDW continues to grow at that rate, by 2021, there will be around 63 million visitors, that's another 16 million visitors! If we break it down, that's an average of 172,600 visitors per day on property, and 43,000 visitors per park. Of course, that's not the best reflection of how many people are in the parks on a given day, but it's a decent estimate.

Here's something else to think about. There's a rule of thumb that many church planners go by called the 80% rule. It theorizes that once attendance hits 80% on a regular service, new people will stop coming, and you may even start to lose people. I would guess that something similar will eventually happen to WDW. Once the average attendance hits 85-90% (guesstimate), people will stop coming. If it's too crowded, people will just find somewhere else to go. So, by this, you have to wonder, where is the tipping point? How long will it be until WDW hits "critical mass", where families will stop coming because it's too crowded? And then, what should they do about it? Will a 5th gate solve the problem, or simply become a bigger risk, should the economy tank?

It's fun to speculate on these things. One thing is sure though. Tourism in Florida will continue to grow. With Legoland moving in to the south, it may bring a few more visitors to the area, or at the least steal a few from WDW. Also, Universal, Seaworld and Busch aren't just sitting idle hoping a few WDW visitors will come see them, no, they're aggressively trying to make their parks unique and appealing to those wanting a slightly different experience. Will Disney try and stay on top, or will they simply co-exist in the Florida theme park business? Only time will tell. But, if history is any indication, I think there's still a lot more to come, 5th gate or not.

 

[Disday]

I like the theme of literature. In that way, they could build a park and attractions regardless of how well a film does. At TDS they have Mysterious Island based on two Verne novels. Imagineers coud give their own interpretations of books. However, I think that the 5th will either be based on Marvel or Villains (Dark Kingdom).

 

[juniorthomas]

I would like to think a 5th gate is reasonable, perhaps someday, but not yet. I think there is a lot they can do right now with the parks they already have to increase capacity.

However, I like to look at the numbers and see what they say. The estimates for 2010 aren't out yet, but it can be assumed that they at least stayed close to where they were in 2009. We can guesstimate that there were about 47 million visitors in 2010. That would put the average growth rate since 1999, the year after DAK opened, at 2.6%. IF WDW continues to grow at that rate, by 2021, there will be around 63 million visitors, that's another 16 million visitors! If we break it down, that's an average of 172,600 visitors per day on property, and 43,000 visitors per park. Of course, that's not the best reflection of how many people are in the parks on a given day, but it's a decent estimate.

Here's something else to think about. There's a rule of thumb that many church planners go by called the 80% rule. It theorizes that once attendance hits 80% on a regular service, new people will stop coming, and you may even start to lose people. I would guess that something similar will eventually happen to WDW. Once the average attendance hits 85-90% (guesstimate), people will stop coming. If it's too crowded, people will just find somewhere else to go. So, by this, you have to wonder, where is the tipping point? How long will it be until WDW hits "critical mass", where families will stop coming because it's too crowded? And then, what should they do about it? Will a 5th gate solve the problem, or simply become a bigger risk, should the economy tank?

It's fun to speculate on these things. One thing is sure though. Tourism in Florida will continue to grow. With Legoland moving in to the south, it may bring a few more visitors to the area, or at the least steal a few from WDW. Also, Universal, Seaworld and Busch aren't just sitting idle hoping a few WDW visitors will come see them, no, they're aggressively trying to make their parks unique and appealing to those wanting a slightly different experience. Will Disney try and stay on top, or will they simply co-exist in the Florida theme park business? Only time will tell. But, if history is any indication, I think there's still a lot more to come, 5th gate or not.

Nicely stated.

I don't think a 5th gate cannibalizes visiting the other four parks at all. The only way that happens is if they open a park thats too much like one of the others.

Eventually a 5th gate will be necessary to give people something new, but also to hold on to guests longer. May not be soon, but it will happen eventually.

 

[AlishaSimonLee]

It's going to be a bit before anything gets built, but here is an idea, maybe for a 60th anniversary.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disney's_America

Just because the idea failed up north doesn't mean it couldn't work in Florida.

 

[flavious27]

I agree. AC is a blackhole that nobody should want to touch, let alone Disney. Furthermore, I feel like expansion outside of Anaheim/Orlando in the US is incredibly unlikely. After the failed DisneyQuest plan in Philadelphia, I'm sure Disney is not as interested in setting up anything that isn't an expansion on their own land.

I'm interested to see how Aulani does, in fact.

DQ in philly was finished because orl and chicago's dq failed to gain the traction that disney was looking for. If a DQ philly was regularly updated it would have done well, the dave and busters does very good business.

 

[flavious27]

You have to admit, its an innovative idea. How often are people on these boards screaming for ideas that were passed on by Disney years ago? (BK?) Literature, while seemingly an extension of FL, is a pretty good starting point.

Agreed, it would be a good concept for disney to work on. Along with that, while wdi is designing the park, any involvement with the studios will help to create new films.

 

[Disday]

Has Literature as a theme for a park ever been considered by Imagineering? Or, is it being considered? Or, is it just a forum person's idea? Anyone know?

 

[NoChesterHester]

Has Literature as a theme for a park ever been considered by Imagineering? Or, is it being considered? Or, is it just a forum person's idea? Anyone know?

I would venture to guess that Disney would want to own the literature properties in question or they end up paying a bunch of royalties.

Also, if not done on really well known titles the park would end up being esoteric. Unfortunately they need to appeal to a pretty wide swath to make it work.

 

[flavious27]

I would venture to guess that Disney would want to own the literature properties in question or they end up paying a bunch of royalties.

Also, if not done on really well known titles the park would end up being esoteric. Unfortunately they need to appeal to a pretty wide swath to make it work.

It matters how cooperating the estates and authors are towards disney; if Disney tried to use Mary Poppins when pl travers was alive, just forget about it.

 

[Spike-in-Berlin]

At the moment not one of the four existing parks is in a condition that I would call even remotely perfect - and that is actually what I expect from a true Disney-Theme Park! DAK is desperately in need of some major additions, it's still only a half-day park. EPCOT is looking quite depressing in several areas with all the closed or outdated attractions and no addition to the World Showcase since Reagan was president! In the MK the new FLE by the way is the first major addition since the early nineties and even with the FLE there are still areas in the MK that are badly in need of some additions, like e.g. Adventureland (no major addition since the seventies!) and Tomorrowland, as the MK is the signature park of the entire resort.
And although TSM was a major boost for the DHS attendance it is still considered a half-day park by a lot of guests, still something to do there.
In other words, there is no necessity for a fith park whatsoever as the four existing ones are all badly in need of some funding.
Perhaps in 20 years but I don't think that a fifth full-scale park does make any sense. I am one of those die-hard guests who stay up to ten days and more and I would stay for 2 weeks if possible. But most guests have less than 4 or 5 days and it is already impossible to do everything the World offers in this short amount of time so adding a new park would make it even more impossible to do the parks in a normal vacation.

 

[juniorthomas]

DQ in philly was finished because orl and chicago's dq failed to gain the traction that disney was looking for. If a DQ philly was regularly updated it would have done well, the dave and busters does very good business.

That's not really the case.

If you have any idea of what Philadelphia politics are like, you know the real reason why it never happened.

And DQ, at the time, wasn't doing all that badly.

 

[juniorthomas]

Agreed, it would be a good concept for disney to work on. Along with that, while wdi is designing the park, any involvement with the studios will help to create new films.

Because realistically, where else could they take a 5th gate?

We have movies/tv, animals, the world/the future, and princesses and Disney classic rides. Books are a great extension, really.

Anyone have any ideas outside of literature for a 5th gate?