Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown

Nirya

Well-Known Member
The 3.4% number is interesting if it’s a worldwide count, because it probably means Iran is seeing way more deaths than originally thought. China was at that number, but theirs was particularly effected by the rash of deaths right at the start, where more recent times are down to around 1%.
 

DrAlice

Well-Known Member
Here's the thing, how many people get the flu and are never reported?
You sparked my curiosity, so I just looked this up. If I'm reading this correctly, it looks like when the CDC reports the flu burden (illness rates), it is an estimate of total cases based on the actual reported cases. It's complicated statistical modeling, but they are trying to capture the non-reported cases in their final numbers. The mortality rate we think about for the flu includes this estimate of non-reported cases. Of course it isn't perfect, but they try. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm)

I honestly don't know if the WHO is including an estimate of non-reported cases in their mortality rate estimates. If they are, then the comparison between the two diseases is valid. If not, then we are talking apples and oranges here. I haven't had enough caffeine yet this morning to wade through the WHO's website. I'll leave that to someone else here. :)
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
With Chinese cinemas closed, and safe Americans who are addicted to panic doing what they do best, Hollywood is really getting that sinking feeling.


How is Onward doing?
Its going to be a packed second half of the year then if more and more movies shift their schedule.
 

captveg

Well-Known Member
With Chinese cinemas closed, and safe Americans who are addicted to panic doing what they do best, Hollywood is really getting that sinking feeling.


How is Onward doing?

Onward (and Mulan) have already postponed a lot of their international release dates due to the Asian box office being mostly shuttered for the next couple months. That could be seriously bad for both films as piracy could kill their eventual releases in Asia. Mulan especially was counting on a large China box office return.
 

flutas

Well-Known Member
First death in CA today. Elderly with underlying health issues, number 11 country wide.


This could lead to more proactive reactions in the state though as it's starting to hit closer to the park.
 
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Phroobar

Well-Known Member
Are you saying that there is a valid reason to actually go to Banning?
Pinball as far as the eye can see!!!!

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TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I honestly don't know if the WHO is including an estimate of non-reported cases in their mortality rate estimates. If they are, then the comparison between the two diseases is valid. If not, then we are talking apples and oranges here. I haven't had enough caffeine yet this morning to wade through the WHO's website. I'll leave that to someone else here. :)

That part confuses me too. I saw this paragraph in the Times today and found it helpful.

"The death rate among reported coronavirus patients is now about 3.4%, a far higher percentage than previous estimates, the World Health Organization Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus says. He said the virus is more lethal than the flu, which kills tens of thousands of Americans each year, but does not spread as easily."

What I get from that is of the people who have reported to a hospital or doctor's office with flu-like symptoms and been tested for Covid-19 infection, 3.4% of those people later die.

But how many tens of thousands of people in America already have Covid-19 and haven't been tested? How many millions in China had it and weren't tested for it and confirmed as a Covid-19 case?

It's all so confusing. I'm just washin' my hands and livin' my life like I always do!
 

TP2000

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
If you use the death rate math that was used in Japan to close Tokyo Disneyland, we are about halfway towards the US death rate needed to close WDW and Disneyland USA.

Tokyo Disneyland announced it was closing after 8 people in Japan had died, in a country of 120 Million.

There are 330 Million people living in America, so the death rate using that math would need to be 22 Americans died.

Today the 11th death due to Coronavirus related symptoms was reported. So after 11 more Americans die and the death rate reaches 22, will Disneyland close immediately and indefinitely?

Some death rate Fun Facts while you wait in line at Costco to buy 96 rolls of toilet paper...
An average of 1 American dies each day due to Meningitis
An average of 102 Americans die each day due to automobile accidents.
An average of 130 Americans die each day due to Opioid drug overdose.
An average of 1,650 Americans die each day due to cancer.
 
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Mac Tonight

Well-Known Member
So... someone with better medical knowledge can correct me if this is totally wrong...

But over the weekend I was talking to some folks who have 30+ year careers working in hospitals, and they seemed to think that once the weather warms up, it should greatly reduce the spread of the disease or even its ability to survive.

I have a trip planned to WDW in June and they all but guaranteed that this shouldn't impact it by that point. I want to believe them, lol... but, I mean, who knows. Needless to say, I haven't booked my flights yet...
 
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socalifornian

Well-Known Member

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