Small note: the NBA has postponed all games for the time being.
As our friend @TP2000 posted, all colleges in a 20mi radius of DLR are online only at this time.
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Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown
- Thread starter TP2000
- Start date
Small note: the NBA has postponed all games for the time being.
As our friend @TP2000 posted, all colleges in a 20mi radius of DLR are online only at this time.
TragicMike
Well-Known Member
First of all, there's VACCINATION available for the flu while none exists for the Coronavirus. Still, 1 Billion people worldwide came down with the flu so even if 1 Million died, that's a mortality rate of just .1%. The death rate of the Coronavirus is 3.4% meaning if 1 Billion people caught it, there would be 34 Million deaths. Trump's task force immunologist said that the virus is 30 times more lethal than the flu and with further testing MIGHT go down to 10x. https://theweek.com/speedreads/9014...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Perhaps that number is high enough to elicit a reaction from you?
Secondly, this is all moot because current death amounts don't mean squat, that's because there's low infection rate at the moment due to all the drastic precautions being taken. No one ever says "Oh no, it's the Flu season we must lock ourselves in the house and avoid crowded places!" like we are currently doing with the Coronavirus. Wait a month or two when millions could become infected, the death toll will rise exponentially.
However, this is still ignoring the main underlying issue; this virus has a high hospitalization rate. The Congress in-house doctor expects 75-150 millions Americans to contract the virus. 10% to 20% of infected may need to be hospitalized, in comparison, flu hospitalization rate is less than 0.1%. MIDDLE SCHOOL MATH TIME: Let's assume we get those rookie numbers down to only 1% needing hospital care. 1% of the US population is ~700,000, there are 300,000 open hospital beds (https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf). Those hospital beds also have to go to victims of midnight tornadoes, car crashes, Opioid overdoes and backyard pool drownings. This WILL massively overwhelm our hospitals. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
If and when hospitals are overwhelmed, that is when the death rate shoot way up. Go watch videos of Wuhan where people are dropping dead in the streets and the horror scenes in the hospitals. Or read up on how Italy's current lockdown only allows commercial places of groceries and pharmacies to remain open. Then get back to me when a backyard pool drowning paralyzes the 8th largest economy in the world.
DrAlice
Well-Known Member
How about the student workers who WILL NOT BE PAID when their campus closes down? (You know, the single mom in my class that is trying to get a degree for a better job.)
Your info is several weeks old.
The death rate for coronavirus in South Korea, the main country to have begun widespread testing by the hundreds of thousands last week, is now 0.77%. And as more test results come in and we see just how many people have or had the coronavirus and suffered only minor to mild symptoms, the death rate will continue to decline.
TragicMike
Well-Known Member
I'm sorry, how many people have to die before this becomes important to you?
South Korea also has a much younger general population, and the population that the virus was centered on was mostly female (who have a lower death rate for this virus).
There are "other factors" regarding the population in Korea with the virus, but apparently mentioning exactly what is against the rules and gets posts ministry of truth'd around here.
Practical Pig
Well-Known Member
I have a brother and his family who were RV-ing from California to WDW to meet up with more family there - until a few hours ago. I just called him to urge him to change those plans, to find that he had just done so and will be returning home, and none of the family will be going to those parks now.
The five weeks remaining in his vacation will largely be spent in our family summer home, which is an hour and-a-half drive from the nearest city, and stocked for an extended stay if necessary. That's pretty much a 180 degree turn around from their heading to a huge public petri dish, and it was just based on the last day of reporting.
I've been in the mindset that the public reaction has been over-reactive, and I haven't participated in the panic-buying frenzy. I'm starting to wonder if maybe should have.
The five weeks remaining in his vacation will largely be spent in our family summer home, which is an hour and-a-half drive from the nearest city, and stocked for an extended stay if necessary. That's pretty much a 180 degree turn around from their heading to a huge public petri dish, and it was just based on the last day of reporting.
I've been in the mindset that the public reaction has been over-reactive, and I haven't participated in the panic-buying frenzy. I'm starting to wonder if maybe should have.
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DrAlice
Well-Known Member
Yeah, ok. I'm talking about colleges making classes go online while still allowing their sports teams to be in close contact with one another and teams from other areas.
Yes, I'm aware the SoCal schools are going online. My question was about whether they are still keeping sports, clubs, campus libraries, etc. going at the same time.
Nirya
Well-Known Member
Here is how I would look at this from an economic standpoint:
First off, let's assume that things that health officials are saying, from a projected death rate of around 2% (WHO recently upped it to 3.4%, but I'm going to go on the low side just because) to a infectious rate between 2-3.14 (essentially how many people will be infected by coming in contact with an average disease carrier). Let's also realize that the rate of hospitalization is obviously much higher than the death rate, and let's also realize that mild to moderate symptoms of the virus are essentially pneumonia.
If we take all that and went about treating this as the average flu, we'd probably end up in a similar situation to what Italy is currently going through. We'd still end up with an economy getting slowed down in the United States due to millions of people getting sick beyond what the average person undergoes during the flu. We also would see a higher death rate closer to Italy's reported death rate of around 6.7%, as their hospital system became slammed thanks to thousands of people suddenly coming down with the virus all at the same time and lacking the resources to properly deal with it. On top of that, the US healthcare system isn't exactly friendly to those thousands who are at risk of losing their homes and jobs - even Trump's statement tonight that insurance companies won't charge for coronavirus prevention was revealed to immediately mean some companies wouldn't charge for the test but would still charge for the treatment, and that's hoping you do have insurance. And even in that best-case scenario where the high rate of death and disease spurns the government into action after the fact, the economy still slows down regardless because we live in a global economy now and this disease is hitting all over the world.
At this point, we're basically damned-if-we-do, damned-if-we-don't in regards to COVID-19. These steps you're seeing are drastic, yes, but they're also the same steps that other countries have had to take to curtail the spread of what is proving to be a highly-infectious disease. At some point, public health has to take priority, and a well-run government would also try to find a way to protect the economically-vulnerable as well.
Emmanuel
Well-Known Member
Me and my mom experienced the panic buying happen first hand last weekend. We went to our local Sams Club just as they opened and they were out of toilet paper due to the early opening for their highest members. But we were still able to get two cases of water bottles.
Out of all the places we looked at for Toilet Paper we found it at our local Office Depot which doesn't get a lot of foot traffic every time we shop there even on weekends. Like imagine an empty Knotts Berry Farm during the offseason that's how empty my local Office Depot is.
I'd still say try to get what you need so that you'll minimize going out therefore you'll less likely get the virus. But if you're planning to shop for your needs at Costco its gonna be a "Be there at Rope Drop at Disneyland" scenario. Their daily stock of toilet paper and water goes quicker than Rise of the Resistance boarding groups.
Nirya
Well-Known Member
As of now, yes. That said, Harvard-Westlake just cancelled all spring athletics today and is going to online classes only starting Monday (classes are cancelled for the next two days). That's one local private high school, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the other privates do something similar, while the public schools continue to play things by ear.
D
Deleted member 107043
I did seriously consider it for several days though. I decided to go only atter weighing all the risks, including the chance of transmission via commercial air travel, the number of documented cases in OC, and my own ability to fight the disease based on my health and age. I'm aware and very concerned.
Go ahead and live your life, but at the same time remember, as my mother used to say, this is not play time. This is serious.
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tonymu
Premium Member
I am probably alone on this thought, but it seems crazy to me that the solution to help stop the spread of the virus is to extend spring breaks and going to online courses afterwards. While it would be unpopular, I would think it if you wanted to take drastic measures that it would be more effective to cancel spring breaks and keep students in school where they are (colleges) or at home and school (high schools and grade schools) instead of traveling all over the place, and then re-schedule the breaks for after the virus has been contained. If people really think these students and families are not going to travel over their break or new extended break, I think they are naive. Instead these students and families are going to travel over spring break and probably travel more with the extra time and still theoretically spread the virus more as they return than they would if they had stayed at school or home and school.
Darkbeer1
Well-Known Member
One key issue.
Schools are de-facto day-care centers plus provides meals to children, many of which depend on those meals since the "parents" can't figure out how to budget for necessaries before buying other crap.
Closing schools can cause major ripple effects. And if schools and the other day-care centers, Disneyland and Knott's also close, what happen to these kids???
And while I wish I could find a way to get many folks priorities corrected, it isn't happening this year.
Schools are de-facto day-care centers plus provides meals to children, many of which depend on those meals since the "parents" can't figure out how to budget for necessaries before buying other crap.
Closing schools can cause major ripple effects. And if schools and the other day-care centers, Disneyland and Knott's also close, what happen to these kids???
And while I wish I could find a way to get many folks priorities corrected, it isn't happening this year.
socalifornian
Well-Known Member
I haven't heard of really bad diarrhea being a Corona symptom. Am I missing something?
George Lucas on a Bench
Well-Known Member
Well, people gotta wipe up.
It's not that it's not important to me, but I'm not alarmed or panicked about it.
To get me to be alarmed or panicky about Coronavirus, I'm going to need to see a death rate that is at least half that of the average flu season in this country. So about 15,000 Americans dying of this virus within a six month period, or about 2,500 Americans per month.
I could be extremely frank and say I'd like to see at least the same amount of people dying as the average flu season, but I'll just go with half that to do my part in Virtue Signaling.
The only thing you are missing is mass hysteria. I was at my local Ralph's tonight and they had plenty of bath tissue on the shelves, so all is well in Villa Park.