xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
Maybe he just likes dark beer and has nothing to do with Beer at all?
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Will Disneyland USA suffer? ALL Of Disney's Theme Parks Now Closed - Reopening Dates Unknown
- Thread starter TP2000
- Start date
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
Reading is hard. At least it’s a unique spot of stupid nonsense.
DrAlice
Well-Known Member
Just FYI:
I can't speak to how he chose his screen name, but he is long and well-known around here for working with the city and the resort on political matters. He's part of (head of? sorry, I've forgotten) the PAC known as SOAR (Save Our Anaheim Resort). He's not just a beer guy pretending to have inside knowledge.
Anyway... about that Coronavirus......
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NobodyElse
Well-Known Member
I hate to think we're all completely and accurately summed up by our user names.
DrAlice
Well-Known Member
From the BBC, quoting the WHO:
"The WHO argued that China has had fewer than 80,000 cases out of a population of 1.4 billion people and in the rest of the world, there have so-far been 2,790 cases out of a population of 6.3 billion. "
I find this a fascinating way to look at this. Amidst all the panic and scare in the media, when you look at the actual MATH, a tiny fraction of the world is actually infected. And, R0 is estimated to be somewhere in the 2-4 range (For reference, R0 for measles is like 12-18 people!).
"The WHO argued that China has had fewer than 80,000 cases out of a population of 1.4 billion people and in the rest of the world, there have so-far been 2,790 cases out of a population of 6.3 billion. "
I find this a fascinating way to look at this. Amidst all the panic and scare in the media, when you look at the actual MATH, a tiny fraction of the world is actually infected. And, R0 is estimated to be somewhere in the 2-4 range (For reference, R0 for measles is like 12-18 people!).
SoCalMort
Well-Known Member
Isn't a R0 of 2-4 the same as 1918's pandemic?
DrAlice
Well-Known Member
Yup, in that range. So, yes, I get what you are implying about potential spread. Having said that, are we better or worse today than we were in 1918 in terms of containing a virus? An honest question, and a worthwhile debate to have. Remember, though, in 1918 there was a World War going on (with horrible trench conditions) that could've helped spread the virus. *shrug*
AND, let's be clear: despite a similar spread potential, this virus is NOT AT ALL like the 1918 influenza virus. That virus was deadly to young, healthy people. It caused massive immune reactions in the young that lead to lung damage, making people extremely susceptible to bacterial pneumonia. And, remember, antibiotics were not widely available yet to treat those secondary infections. In contrast, this coronavirus is killing the same demographic of people that typically die of the seasonal flu, the old and immunocompromised. So, while I think it is ok to talk about similar spread potential, be careful about invoking the name of "Spanish Flu" as it really is a different animal... Err.. virus...
I'm totally enjoying the chance to geek out here.
Darkbeer1
Well-Known Member
OK, just to clarify things.
Back in the late 1970's, when I was a late teen, I built my first computer (Heathkit), and was given the online nickname "Darkbeer".
A roommate of mine, Eric, built the first circuit board for the Apple II that allowed multiple phone lines to be connected to allow group chatting.
My real name is David Michael Klawe, and a member of "Support our Anaheim Resort Area", also known as S.O.A.R. I am also on the W.A.N.D. Executive Board, a Neighborhood Leadership Council member of AnaheI'M First. and other related items.
And I am a member of S.O.A.R., not the head, her name is Jill.
In the mid 1990's I started to cover/report on Disney and other Theme Parks, I provided content for newspapers, Jim Hill Media, MousePlanet, MiceAge and more, until shortly after my marriage in the early 2010's.
My theme park insights have placed me in working with Visit Anaheim, The Chamber and related groups. I currently sit on Task Forces and other similar projects, including APD and AFD situations.
At the last Chamber major event, I was invited to sit at the DLR table, front and center, along with many TDA senior staff.
Earlier this week, I went to a reception hoted by Rebecca Campbell. Every Councilmember, including the Mayor plus the senior city staff (Including the APD and AFD chiefs) are all colleagues.
I am NOT trying to scare people, I am trying to let folks know that the Federal, State and Local authorities, along with major groups that could be affected, such as Disney, Hotel Owners, the Ducks, the Angels and more are discussing common sense measures to try and protect the public IF COVID-19 reaches Orange County.
But if you don't think people are worried about a possible spread of the disease, I would go to the CDC website, and see what their current thoughts are.
Back in the late 1970's, when I was a late teen, I built my first computer (Heathkit), and was given the online nickname "Darkbeer".
A roommate of mine, Eric, built the first circuit board for the Apple II that allowed multiple phone lines to be connected to allow group chatting.
My real name is David Michael Klawe, and a member of "Support our Anaheim Resort Area", also known as S.O.A.R. I am also on the W.A.N.D. Executive Board, a Neighborhood Leadership Council member of AnaheI'M First. and other related items.
And I am a member of S.O.A.R., not the head, her name is Jill.
In the mid 1990's I started to cover/report on Disney and other Theme Parks, I provided content for newspapers, Jim Hill Media, MousePlanet, MiceAge and more, until shortly after my marriage in the early 2010's.
My theme park insights have placed me in working with Visit Anaheim, The Chamber and related groups. I currently sit on Task Forces and other similar projects, including APD and AFD situations.
At the last Chamber major event, I was invited to sit at the DLR table, front and center, along with many TDA senior staff.
Earlier this week, I went to a reception hoted by Rebecca Campbell. Every Councilmember, including the Mayor plus the senior city staff (Including the APD and AFD chiefs) are all colleagues.
I am NOT trying to scare people, I am trying to let folks know that the Federal, State and Local authorities, along with major groups that could be affected, such as Disney, Hotel Owners, the Ducks, the Angels and more are discussing common sense measures to try and protect the public IF COVID-19 reaches Orange County.
But if you don't think people are worried about a possible spread of the disease, I would go to the CDC website, and see what their current thoughts are.
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SoCalMort
Well-Known Member
... I'm totally enjoying the chance to geek out here.
Well, so long as you don't mind, I'd like a quick reality check on whether or not I have an appropriate level of panic since we all know that is the most appropriate emotional response in situations like this.
I'm a handful of years younger than Disneyland and relatively healthy, so even if 'community spread' (if I am using that term correctly) reaches high levels here in Los Angeles, I am not all that concerned about it seriously impacting my health even though COVID-19 shares a R0 and morbidity rate similar to the 1918 influenza virus because the two are very different 'bugs.'
However, I have a job where I deal face-to-face with a great number of the public. I am getting somewhat concerned about coronavirus directly impacting the amount of my paycheck because of potential precautions that may be taken to prevent community spread. I don't know how quickly things spread in 1917/1918, but COVID-19 has reached six continents in about 60 days and just today it was announced a Korean Air flight attendant worked several international flights while infected.
How realistic is it that a major US city could be put on lockdown like areas of China? I know it is possible, but how probable ... which I guess realistically is unknowable.
SSG
Well-Known Member
Disney Irish
Premium Member
I'm not trying to be mean, but why don't you actually try to learn who someone is before accusing them of lying and fearmongering.
I guarantee you David is someone in the know regarding Anaheim and the inner workings of what that local government is doing about the situation. He has to be vague due to NDAs that he has signed regarding privileged information that he is privy to. So its not just him "trying to sound important and scare people".
So why don't you get a grip and slow your roll...
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
That troll needs to pick his targets better.
Darkbeer1
Well-Known Member
Orange County officials today will declare a local health emergency in response to the coronavirus.
Michelle Steel, chair of the county Board of Supervisors, and board Vice Chair Andrew Do plan to announce the declaration at an early afternoon news conference. Nichole Quick, county health officer, and Richard Sanchez, director of the Orange County Health Care Agency, are also expected to attend.
I should also disclose, my wife, Lisa, works for the Orange County Health Care Agency and is part of the emergency response team, as are a few hundred others from the HCA.
Michelle Steel, chair of the county Board of Supervisors, and board Vice Chair Andrew Do plan to announce the declaration at an early afternoon news conference. Nichole Quick, county health officer, and Richard Sanchez, director of the Orange County Health Care Agency, are also expected to attend.
I should also disclose, my wife, Lisa, works for the Orange County Health Care Agency and is part of the emergency response team, as are a few hundred others from the HCA.
SuddenStorm
Well-Known Member
Darkbeer1
Well-Known Member
Come on, SS, you know I have no connections in regards to politics and Disney, nor do I have a wife.
Sigh, I missed my chance with Tinker Bell (Margaret Kelly) when I set up on a Blind Date Breakfast event at Club 33 many years ago.
Margaret finally got married this Valentine's Day, and I am so happy for her!
Still hoping Ariel will become available
Back to dealing with the real world.....
Sigh, I missed my chance with Tinker Bell (Margaret Kelly) when I set up on a Blind Date Breakfast event at Club 33 many years ago.
Margaret finally got married this Valentine's Day, and I am so happy for her!
Still hoping Ariel will become available
Back to dealing with the real world.....
DrAlice
Well-Known Member
I work with the public also, so I completely understand your apprehension.Well, so long as you don't mind, I'd like a quick reality check on whether or not I have an appropriate level of panic since we all know that is the most appropriate emotional response in situations like this.
I'm a handful of years younger than Disneyland and relatively healthy, so even if 'community spread' (if I am using that term correctly) reaches high levels here in Los Angeles, I am not all that concerned about it seriously impacting my health even though COVID-19 shares a R0 and morbidity rate similar to the 1918 influenza virus because the two are very different 'bugs.'
However, I have a job where I deal face-to-face with a great number of the public. I am getting somewhat concerned about coronavirus directly impacting the amount of my paycheck because of potential precautions that may be taken to prevent community spread. I don't know how quickly things spread in 1917/1918, but COVID-19 has reached six continents in about 60 days and just today it was announced a Korean Air flight attendant worked several international flights while infected.
How realistic is it that a major US city could be put on lockdown like areas of China? I know it is possible, but how probable ... which I guess realistically is unknowable.
Like you, I'm less worried about the health aspects and more concerned about the possible economic impacts of this thing. I really hope that we don't go the route of shutting down a major US city. Currently all research data on epidemics show that shutting borders has little to no impact on reducing transmission rates and only causes more problems (economic impact, promotes anger/mistrust in govt. health officials, people slip through anyway and are hard to track, etc.). But, city, county, and state officials will do what they think the public wants them to do. So at what level of panic should you be? Depends on your local politicians, I think.
SoCalMort
Well-Known Member
What is the immediate impact of such a move and are there higher levels OC officials can declare if things get more severe?
DrAlice
Well-Known Member
When you say "declare an emergency", is this really just about triggering mechanisms that release more $$ to the local area so they can get what they need for a potential response?
Just asking because "declaring an emergency" sounds scary.
EDIT: @SoCalMort posting jinx!
SoCalMort
Well-Known Member
... So at what level of panic should you be? Depends on your local politicians, I think.
..........um...........
Thanks Doctor! I appreciate the response.
Darkbeer1
Well-Known Member
Dr. Alice pretty much has it, it allows more than the current planning meetings that have been held, and now can actually act, and have the funds to do it.
The biggest thing currently happening is working with the Medical Community to make sure they are looking for folks who have the true matching symptoms (not just a runny nose and fever) are placed into isolation, and the authorities are notified, so forensic analysis can be done to see who they had contact with, and where they might have caught the virus.
Edited to add - One thing the declaration will allow is providing COVID-19 testing to hospitals and similar facilities, and that the costs are paid for by the government. (That allows authorities to have the knowledge that someone does/does not have it.)
It is really common sense. If you think you had contact with someone that might have the virus, such as certain Korean Air flights, and have flu symptoms, contact your Doctor or head to Urgent Care ASAP.
Are there higher levels, yes, but that tends to be done in conjunction with Federal and State authorities.
Edited to add, one of the final things is to not allow large public gatherings, or "recommend" they don't happen. The lawyers read that as we must COA, and we need to close down our facilities. Though there are cases in the world where sports teams play in front of empty facilities, with only the team's staff and broadcasters allowed inside.
As I said before, using common sense and doing our best to identify early, and isolate is the best thing we can do now. Plus prepare for the small possibility that a larger breakout happens.
Remember to wash your hands and use common sense.
The biggest thing currently happening is working with the Medical Community to make sure they are looking for folks who have the true matching symptoms (not just a runny nose and fever) are placed into isolation, and the authorities are notified, so forensic analysis can be done to see who they had contact with, and where they might have caught the virus.
Edited to add - One thing the declaration will allow is providing COVID-19 testing to hospitals and similar facilities, and that the costs are paid for by the government. (That allows authorities to have the knowledge that someone does/does not have it.)
It is really common sense. If you think you had contact with someone that might have the virus, such as certain Korean Air flights, and have flu symptoms, contact your Doctor or head to Urgent Care ASAP.
Are there higher levels, yes, but that tends to be done in conjunction with Federal and State authorities.
Edited to add, one of the final things is to not allow large public gatherings, or "recommend" they don't happen. The lawyers read that as we must COA, and we need to close down our facilities. Though there are cases in the world where sports teams play in front of empty facilities, with only the team's staff and broadcasters allowed inside.
As I said before, using common sense and doing our best to identify early, and isolate is the best thing we can do now. Plus prepare for the small possibility that a larger breakout happens.
Remember to wash your hands and use common sense.
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