Wilderness Lodge DVC additions - Copper Creek Villas & Cabins

[orky8]

*Shrug*. Like I've said, I hold no animosity towards Disney for offering DVC nor towards DVC members for purchasing it. I just personally believe it's a bad product with inordinate inherent risk. I also plan on going every year with my daughter (now seven months and already with one trip under her belt), but I'll be a cash guest the whole way.

If that is true that you will go every year for the next 18 years, and if you stay at moderates or above, you will be wasting money by not buying DVC. Of course, those are two big "ifs" and those "ifs" are the reason its hard to know if DVC will we a savings in the long run. Let's say you, hypothetcially, will go to Disney World ever year for the next 18 years for 1 week. I chose a random week in August and got nightly rates for the lowest cost room (with the discounts that are typically available) of $162 for Port Orleans, $247 for Wilderness Lodge, and $332 for the Contemporary. So some math:

PO: $162/ night x 7 nights = $1134 / week x 18 years = $20,412
WL: $247 / night x 7 nights = $1918 / week x 18 years = $34,524
CR: $332 / night x 7 nights = $2324 / week x 18 years = $41,832

Now, let's compare against DVC. I'd say the going resale rate for SSR (which roughly compares with the features of Port Orleans) is $75 / point, WL is probably $80 / point, and BLT is $105 / point. Maintenance fees are $5.17 / point for SSR, $6.02 / point for WL, and $5.05 / point for BLT. For a week at each resort in August (the same week I priced out above), you will need 120 points for SSR, 127 points for WL, and 139 for BLT . So some math:

SSR: ($75 / pt x 120 pts = $9,000) + ($5.17 / pt x 120 pts x 18 years = $11,167) = $20,167
WL: ($80 / pt x 127 pts = $10,160) + ($6.02 / pt x 127 pts x 18 years = $13,761) = $23,921
BLT: ($105 / pt x 139 pts = $15,595) + ($5.05 / pt x 139 pts x 18 years = $12,631) = $28,230

 

[GoofGoof]

Great analysis- although it's not that clearcut- because you could technically be making interest on your $9,000. But yes, you still come out ahead. The even bigger savings is when you use those SSR points to stay at BLT like I'm doing in September- or the Polynesian this January- then you're using your "$20k" number for a "$41k" room

You also are not factoring in increases in both cash room rates and DVC maintenance fees. If you assume that they both go up at about the same rate (which is historically accurate) there is still a much more substantial impact on cash room price than DVC. The reason is you have locked in the fixed portion of your DVC price. In the examples above over 18 years about half of your total cost came from the price of buying the points (which is fixed) and half from fees (which rise). Only the fees go up each year so a 4% increase in maintenance fees only adds 2% to your overall room cost. A 4% increase in a cash rate is just 4%. Over time that is a huge savings as price increases compound.

 

[orky8]

Great analysis- although it's not that clearcut- because you could technically be making interest on your $9,000. But yes, you still come out ahead. The even bigger savings is when you use those SSR points to stay at BLT like I'm doing in September- or the Polynesian this January- then you're using your "$20k" number for a "$41k" room

Join us @CaptainAmerica You know you want to...

You also are not factoring in increases in both cash room rates and DVC maintenance fees. If you assume that they both go up at about the same rate (which is historically accurate) there is still a much more substantial impact on cash room price than DVC. The reason is you have locked in the fixed portion of your DVC price. In the examples above over 18 years about half of your total cost came from the price of buying the points (which is fixed) and half from fees (which rise). Only the fees go up each year so a 4% increase in maintenance fees only adds 2% to your overall room cost. A 4% increase in a cash rate is just 4%. Over time that is a huge savings as price increases compound.

Yes, as you both pointed out, there is a little bit more nuance. If you try to factor in the present value and future value, what your money might earn, assuming you "invested" it instead of spending it, and whether you'd take out a loan, etc., etc. I also assume maintenance fees will rise at roughly the same rate as room rates, but you never know. Regardless, as @andysol noted, the real benefit can come when you use your SSR points at other resorts. Plus, some would say SSR is a Deluxe whereas my comparison was to a moderate resort (Port Orleans).

What I hope my simple example shows is IF you go every year for 18 years, buying DVC is a no-brainer if looking just at that parameter. Of course, the question really is will/would you have go/gone to Disney World every year?

 

[Garfield]

only ting i found - http://www.chipandco.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/sjBwxM7.jpg

Two completely different plans. These are the plans for a long rumored River Country DVC project, which is completely different from the Wilderness Lodge DVC cabin project of which the discussion is about. What is funny is that you correctly linked in your first post, so this last link is not the only thing you found.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Join us @CaptainAmerica You know you want to...

If we ever see $67 points again, I'll consider it.

Y'all need to get some Cast Member friends. The friends and family rates are sweet.

 

[raymusiccity]

Yes, as you both pointed out, there is a little bit more nuance. If you try to factor in the present value and future value, what your money might earn, assuming you "invested" it instead of spending it, and whether you'd take out a loan, etc., etc. I also assume maintenance fees will rise at roughly the same rate as room rates, but you never know. Regardless, as @andysol noted, the real benefit can come when you use your SSR points at other resorts. Plus, some would say SSR is a Deluxe whereas my comparison was to a moderate resort (Port Orleans).

What I hope my simple example shows is IF you go every year for 18 years, buying DVC is a no-brainer if looking just at that parameter. Of course, the question really is will/would you have go/gone to Disney World every year?

Well, another advantage is you're not necessarily going to 'The World' every year. We've already been to Aulani and plan on a return trip in July. There's a lot of flexibility between all the properties, with more on the way!

 

[GoofGoof]

If we ever see $67 points again, I'll consider it.

Y'all need to get some Cast Member friends. The friends and family rates are sweet.

I don't know anyone who works at WDW, but from reading here (especially in Spirit's threads) it seems like unfortunately the CM discounts aren't what they once were. It's a shame to limit a benefit like that for CMs who aren't exactly generously compensated, but that seems to be the direction management wants to go in.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I don't know anyone who works at WDW, but from reading here (especially in Spirit's threads) it seems like unfortunately the CM discounts aren't what they once were. It's a shame to limit a benefit like that for CMs who aren't exactly generously compensated, but that seems to be the direction management wants to go in.

I'm not sure what our friend Spirit has alluded to, but CMs get 40% for friends and family, 50% for themselves. That's year-round, with some periods bumping to 50% and 60%. Maybe his point is that he doesn't think it's worth it even with the discount?

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm not sure what our friend Spirit has alluded to, but CMs get 40% for friends and family, 50% for themselves. That's year-round, with some periods bumping to 50% and 60%. Maybe his point is that he doesn't think it's worth it even with the discount?

I think there was some talk about lack of availability and blackouts, but maybe that's just park admission.

Edit:
There's some discussion on the topic here:
http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...-wdws-future-you.887031/page-110#post-6376490

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think there was some talk about lack of availability and blackouts, but maybe that's just park admission.

Edit:
There's some discussion on the topic here:
http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...-wdws-future-you.887031/page-110#post-6376490

Yeah no blackouts on room nights and I've never had any difficulty getting a room. If you MUST have a specific resort and view combination, you might have some trouble, but I always go in looking for AKL, WL, or a cabin, and I've never missed out.

 

[devoy1701]

Very, very sad news. Even if I knew it was coming ... and told y'all.

The thing that makes the WL what it is is that feels like it truly is in the wilderness. I don't see how adding 26 waterfront cabins and accompanying structures and paved pathways is going to do this. I really think this flat out sucks ... especially as someone who just bought resale points at the current VWL in 2014 and has yet to even use them once.

Pretty soon, WDW is going to resembles much of FL: pavement, traffic and tiny little berms with shrubs and a few palm trees. The MK already feels like a Disney outlet mall with a few attractions.

So much for Old Dead Guy Walt's Blessing of Size.

Might be the beginning of the end of my favorite resort. In one sense, I'm thinking that those areas weren't really guest areas anyway, so it's not going to take away form the essence of the resort (except for the units going in near the beach and behind the existing Villas building). Reading through this though I realize now it means that they'll need to remove quite a few trees (unless they plan carefully) and the WL might lose that "tucked in the woods" feeling it has...especially when viewed from Bay Lake.

Anyway...looking forward to our non Disney World vacation to Acadia National Park this summer.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Bump.

Has there been ANY movement on this? 2016 packages go on sale Monday and I'm agonizing over my decision for January. We just stayed at AKL in April and were really hoping for WL but we're going to stay away if it's going to be a major construction zone the whole time we're there. That leaves us the option of either downgrading to Riverside or upgrading to the Contemporary. Neither option is ideal, so I'd like to be 100% sure about the WL construction before I book anything.

 

[note2001]

Bump.

Has there been ANY movement on this? 2016 packages go on sale Monday and I'm agonizing over my decision for January. We just stayed at AKL in April and were really hoping for WL but we're going to stay away if it's going to be a major construction zone the whole time we're there. That leaves us the option of either downgrading to Riverside or upgrading to the Contemporary. Neither option is ideal, so I'd like to be 100% sure about the WL construction before I book anything.

Over on the DIS there were some pics taken (through drapes) into rooms being converted on the ground floor of the main lodge, the wing closest to the Hidden Springs pool. If I'm permitted, I'll find it and link. http://tinyurl.com/pem8q2t

** Update, Links over to the DIS are not allowed here... so, although I hate to take images without permission, I will give credit to the poster "tigger137" over there (PLEASE give him/her thanks if you see them):

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Havent heard anything- sorry. Have you considered renting DVC points instead from a place like David's? The Poly is almost completely open right now for January- if you rented a studio for a week it would be $1,386 or $198/nt

I'll be booking with a CM Friends & Family discount. It'll be a bit above that price but worth it, IMO, for daily housekeeping and the ability to manage my own ressie.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Over on the DIS there were some pics taken (through drapes) into rooms being converted on the ground floor of the main lodge, the wing closest to the Hidden Springs pool. If I'm permitted, I'll find it and link. http://tinyurl.com/pem8q2t

** Update, Links over to the DIS are not allowed here... so, although I hate to take images without permission, I will give credit to the poster "tigger137" over there (PLEASE give him/her thanks if you see them):

Thanks for that. So we have room conversions in progress but no word yet apparently on clearing for the new structures.

 

[note2001]

Thanks for that. So we have room conversions in progress but no word yet apparently on clearing for the new structures.

I did link you off to the conversation over on that board showing that Disney is indeed going forward with the Cabins, but a self-declared police officer reported my link as offensive and seems, had it deleted.
(Sigh. I'll never understand why these websites feel it's an us-against-them thing, failing to realize we're all just real people just looking for and to share info, not sneaky thieves.)

 

[danlb_2000]

Thanks for that. So we have room conversions in progress but no word yet apparently on clearing for the new structures.

I think we are at least a few months away from that. The South Florida Water Management District sent a letter to Disney concerning the permit on June 4th and Disney has not responded yet. Until the permit is approved they can't start the work there.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think we are at least a few months away from that. The South Florida Water Management District sent a letter to Disney concerning the permit on June 4th and Disney has not responded yet. Until the permit is approved they can't start the work there.

Should I roll the dice on a January 23 trip, or is it fairly certain we'll be in the thick of things by then?

 

[danlb_2000]

Should I roll the dice on a January 23 trip, or is it fairly certain we'll be in the thick of things by then?

I would think they would have started work by then.

 

[Next Big Thing]

I'm not sure what our friend Spirit has alluded to, but CMs get 40% for friends and family, 50% for themselves. That's year-round, with some periods bumping to 50% and 60%. Maybe his point is that he doesn't think it's worth it even with the discount?

Oh goodness, you are misguided. I'm sure certain CM's who have been working for the company for periods of time get those benefits, but CPs/part-time (a good majority of front-line CMs) only receive 20% most of the year in park. It goes up to 40% at the holidays.

What the spirit is talking about from what i've gathered is the on-site employee only discount store which sells highly discounted merch, normally out-of-season or stuff that they just don't sell anymore. Yes great finds can be had, but don't kid yourself that this somehow makes up for how terrible CMs get treated.