CastAStone
5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
They’ve let me post the link before so I assume it’s ok. www.dvchelp.com
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Why is Riviera resale so cheap?
- Thread starter Schweino
- Start date
Club Cooloholic
Well-Known Member
Well one thing I know is that it's kind of crazy to me that I bought into AKL at about $110 a point about 4 and half years ago and now it's worth more with less years remaining.
You captured my thinking last fall. As we want that home resort option way over thinking ‘what about resale?’ we bought direct.
UofMGuy423
Well-Known Member
In pulling up 12/1/22-12/14/22 this morning at Riviera, it's showing you could book a 1BR - Preferred or a 3BR Grand villa for the whole 2 weeks. The rest of the room categories have some sporadic availability during those two weeks.
Yeah, this is what I saw too. I guess my question is, if I were to of checked on 1/1, does that availability show differently then because it would be the 11 month window?
UofMGuy423
Well-Known Member
Probably decent availability as that would be a month earlier than now. I was able to book a 2BR Villa at Riviera for Thanksgiving week at the 10 month mark, which is a pretty popular week.
Crunched some different numbers, playing a hypothetical 225 pt purchase Direct:
In the above, the Total Value between BR resale and 225 Direct obviously leans towards BR. However, assuming I wanted to sell the contract after 12 years (bottom part of sheet) to recoup funds, the True Value is heavy towards direct. OOP (Out of pocket) difference also is lower for Direct than BR. Selling at 114/pt is the cut off - 113 and lower the OOP difference shifts to favoring BR. However this doesn't account for any money saved with dining/merch discounts. While that wouldn't be huge, it's worth noting.
Someone mentioned a 'New Member' discount if you buy 200+ points direct. I am guessing that is something not advertised and you would have to call Disney to discuss? At 193/pt direct purchase, that to me becomes a no brainer.
In the above, the Total Value between BR resale and 225 Direct obviously leans towards BR. However, assuming I wanted to sell the contract after 12 years (bottom part of sheet) to recoup funds, the True Value is heavy towards direct. OOP (Out of pocket) difference also is lower for Direct than BR. Selling at 114/pt is the cut off - 113 and lower the OOP difference shifts to favoring BR. However this doesn't account for any money saved with dining/merch discounts. While that wouldn't be huge, it's worth noting.
Someone mentioned a 'New Member' discount if you buy 200+ points direct. I am guessing that is something not advertised and you would have to call Disney to discuss? At 193/pt direct purchase, that to me becomes a no brainer.
i<3riviera
Active Member
I like your analysis; sure there are things we all could nitpick but I think you have the broad strokes down and you've created it yourself so it's the best kind of analysis to make a decision; the things I like ...
RVA is expected to be available for direct sale for several more years; so don't feel like you have to rush to buy there if you find a good resale option at BRV; RVA prices have risen consistently but it hasn't been dramatic so you're unlikely to miss out on some amazing deal; RVA will be there when you're ready if you do want it in the future
final thought: you're likely getting to the point in your analysis where you're not seeing a substantial gap between your options; at least you can see how depending on the assumption, multiple options are very competitive; it's worth going over the soft benefits of each location again to see if those may better guide your decision
best of luck!
- consistently doing your analysis in 2022 real (constant) USD; you could add inflation to be fancy but excluding it completely is better than doing inflation inconsistently
- looking at a two room sizes; owning DVC can change your vacation style so looking at accommodation growth is good
- limited analysis window of 12 years; if you value RVA's (or any longer life resort) with its full life it will usually win but the value of those future years should be discounted in some way; all sorts of things can change in the future (you might be vacationing to Mars by 2060!)
- you're recognizing some differential value between BRV and RVA at the end of 12 years
- in 2021, DVCM refunded all surplus funds back to owners from the 2020 budget; in theory, this means the actual effective dues from 2020 (2020 initial - credit) is the best representation of true resort costs we could get; if you plot the initial vs. net dues for each resort and make some assumptions; you end up with a pretty solid trend line that shows future RVA dues may lay somewhere between PVB and SSR's current dues
- there is a predictable trend of newer resort dues regressing to the average dues amount at Walt Disney World; looking at the trend for CCV, VGF, PVB, and RVA you can see they reduce for the first several years after opening; there is no reason to think RVA wil buck the trend so again, it makes sense that RVA dues will not rise as quickly
RVA is expected to be available for direct sale for several more years; so don't feel like you have to rush to buy there if you find a good resale option at BRV; RVA prices have risen consistently but it hasn't been dramatic so you're unlikely to miss out on some amazing deal; RVA will be there when you're ready if you do want it in the future
final thought: you're likely getting to the point in your analysis where you're not seeing a substantial gap between your options; at least you can see how depending on the assumption, multiple options are very competitive; it's worth going over the soft benefits of each location again to see if those may better guide your decision
best of luck!
Appreciate you @i<3riviera! Love your datasets you provided. Effective dues + annual dues trending lower (even by pennies) I think bolsters the 'direct' argument over resale.
The one thing Riviera lacks, at least from my research, is a Massage/Spa place for my wife. We could always head to GF or Dolphin for that I spose, because we liked Riviera's rooms over GF's. One of the main reasons we were looking at CC/BR was because our primary travel dates were 12/1-12/14, and we loved how WL was done up for the Holidays - something we would also miss out on, but could split stay it potentially, even if it's only 1 or 2 nights in a 1BR.
We do love the proximity to Epcot because we are sort of foodies and there are a ton of places we have yet to eat there, and we absolutely loved Le Cellier to boot.
Lastly, some life changes may be happening that could make this a 'soonish' thing for us, depending. I will have a few more questions I am sure as things become more solid/stable
The one thing Riviera lacks, at least from my research, is a Massage/Spa place for my wife. We could always head to GF or Dolphin for that I spose, because we liked Riviera's rooms over GF's. One of the main reasons we were looking at CC/BR was because our primary travel dates were 12/1-12/14, and we loved how WL was done up for the Holidays - something we would also miss out on, but could split stay it potentially, even if it's only 1 or 2 nights in a 1BR.
We do love the proximity to Epcot because we are sort of foodies and there are a ton of places we have yet to eat there, and we absolutely loved Le Cellier to boot.
Lastly, some life changes may be happening that could make this a 'soonish' thing for us, depending. I will have a few more questions I am sure as things become more solid/stable
CastAStone
5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
The purchase incentives are indeed advertised: https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/savings
The incentives will be replaced with new incentives on March 3rd. I imagine they’ll get better for Riviera but no way to know for sure.
Figured Id give an update if anyone cares. We decided to hold off for now. We were hoping to get to FL in May but wife got an internship so thats off the table. We do have a trip booked 12/2-12/10 and the first night we are doing a 1BR at Riviera and will use that day to really check it out.
Thanks again all!
Thanks again all!
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
The value of my timeshare is up about $10,000 since the start of COVID.
You definitely need to read the fine print. I am no expert nor do I claim to be one, but my understanding is you don't get certain ownership benefits by owning re-sale points such as access to member events and discounts. Many people would use re-sale to supplement points they own directly.
Covid didn't affect our use of DVC at all.
Covid didn't affect our use of DVC at all.
homerdance
Well-Known Member
Late to the party, but remember that many resales are stripped of points, and direct usually has last, this, and next year available. I know OKW direct was the same price as resale until the recent price hike for extended small point contracts.
But I also suggest taking a few trips before you buy, stay at a few different places. Never buy based on what you think your future vacations will be. And never finance DVC.
rawisericho
Well-Known Member
Do we have a Marni-like DVC insider that can tell us if the resale restrictions had a major effect on sales and what leaderships’ current opinion on the restrictions moving forward is?
nickys
Premium Member
Not to the same degree, no. But @i<3riviera has done some good analysis on Riviera sales.
The fact that the new rooms at GF are being added to the existing condo association speaks volumes though IMO.
rawisericho
Well-Known Member
Just to clarify, you’re suggesting RR didn’t move as well as expected and there may be some hesitation?
nickys
Premium Member
It seems to have sold well. But it could be a lot of buyers are existing owners adding on small contracts just to stay there.
I hadn’t heard that they had made that decision yet. When did they release that?
nickys
Premium Member
GF not Poly.