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What's Still On and What's Now Off

zengoth

Well-Known Member
So, to keep with this original topic-
what's on or off depends on:
1. when Disney opens - June / Fall2020 / 2021+
2. how Disney opens - AP/locals because of restricted travel vs You have to be staying on property in order to be "in the bubble" once your health is cleared
3. decisions on no shows, no fireworks, no parades, no loitering when you pick up your food (go back to your hotel room or car to eat), probably virtual cues, only handfuls in a store at a time.

I think @MisterPenguin needs to start a revised timeline of ifs, and or buts to help us keep it all straight.
 

disney4life2008

Well-Known Member
It's called "financial imagineering" 😆😆😆😄😄😄

Admit it ... what with the expansion of debt, stock buybacks, rising prices, cheapened, crowded theme parks, DVC ubiquity, merch mania, classic movie rehashes, massive acquisitions and whatnot ... the aughties and teens were a helluva golden age for shareholders and a creative triumph for the beancounting wizards. Give credit where it's due!

Where
Not to mention its one of the filthiest spots I have ever seen.

Huh? I actually find cosmic rays to be filthy especially the tables by the bathroom.
 

CastAStone

Moderately Well-Known Member
Premium Member
for like the 8th time in this thread, even a cursory glance at Disney’s 10-k will reassure anyone who knows how to read one that Disney has zero chance of going into bankruptcy in the next 24 months no matter how bad this gets. Yes they’re issuing debt (the one this week is a credit line, not long term debt, and is probably intended to bridge costs that will have cash realized as soon as this is over, e.g. Soul), but they haven’t even cut their dividend yet. If they were concerned about their ability to have cash on hand they’d have done that immediately.
 

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
And how many more people will die because of the unemployment? We won’t know for sure, but it will be in the tens of thousands.
Well, history tells us the second wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu killed more people than the first. So this wave may will kill 50,000+, but if restrictions are lifted without proper infrastructure and protocol, we could be looking at hundreds of thousands of deaths.
 

csmat99

Well-Known Member
As more states run out of money, there will be a bigger and bigger push to reopen the economy, as we’re already seeing in CA and the northeast. I doubt the lockdown will last past June.
Where are you seeing it in CA? Actually see the opposite. You have a gov that has said we won't reopen unless there is plan and widespread testing in place. That is the only way you can help stop spread if second round starts.
 

EricsBiscuit

Well-Known Member
Well, history tells us the second wave of the 1918 Spanish Flu killed more people than the first. So this wave may will kill 50,000+, but if restrictions are lifted without proper infrastructure and protocol, we could be looking at hundreds of thousands of deaths.
the whole point of flattening the curve was to buy time. Time to build hospital builds, acquire supplies, etc. To a great extent, that has been accomplished. We simply can’t afford to print money for 8 months until January when the vaccine might be ready. We just can’t.
Where are you seeing it in CA? Actually see the opposite. You have a gov that has said we won't reopen unless there is plan and widespread testing in place. That is the only way you can help stop spread if second round starts.
Governor Newsom just announced his 6 conditions today.
 

icc2515

Well-Known Member
I agree that if they can pay the costs of staying shut, then they will pay them. My point is what if they can't? Then what will they do?
They will do what every other smart business does when times are tough and their back is against the wall. They will start selling stuff off. Disney has tons of IP worth billions of dollars. Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Movies, the Simpsons, Theme Parks, the list goes on and on. Disney is not going to be like the poor fellow that died from the cold in his little house with a million dollars in the bank.
 

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
They will do what every other smart business does when times are tough and their back is against the wall. They will start selling stuff off. Disney has tons of IP worth billions of dollars. Star Wars, Marvel, Pixar, Movies, the Simpsons, Theme Parks, the list goes on and on. Disney is not going to be like the poor fellow that died from the cold in his little house with a million dollars in the bank.
That’s dumb. It’s like selling off your portfolio during a stock market crash.
 

csmat99

Well-Known Member
Governor Newsom just announced his 6 conditions today.
Correct these are the six. There isn't a push. There is a plan a painfully slow one. The first one - there is nothing in place they can actually do that as it stands right now. If you actually go through all six points the only one they may be able to answer is the third with regards to ability for hospital and health care systems to handle surges.




"Local officials will have a “profound and outsize influence” on any decision to lift public health orders, Newsom said. He went on to outline six key indicators that will guide the state’s decision as it considers lifting the stay-at-home order:

  • “The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
  • The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
  • The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
  • The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
  • The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
  • The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.” "
 

icc2515

Well-Known Member
That’s dumb. It’s like selling off your portfolio during a stock market crash.
The question was what will Disney do if they can't pay their costs anymore. I took that to mean that they could not borrow or raise anymore money. In that case right before bankruptcy what would they do? Start selling stuff off, better for them to decide what to sell then the courts either way it's gets sold off. And as to the selling off your portfolio during a market crash, that is where the smart risk takers make billions. Sell as the market is crashing then take that money and buy buy buy once the market is at it's lowest. It's the little investors that lose everything because people have been led to believe that you have to stay in it when it's going bad. If I would have sold off my portfolio when things started to go down and then bought before they raced back up I would have mad a lot of money. The problem is that I am not smart enough to know when either of those 2 points were.
 

the.dreamfinder

Well-Known Member
The question was what will Disney do if they can't pay their costs anymore. I took that to mean that they could not borrow or raise anymore money. In that case right before bankruptcy what would they do? Start selling stuff off, better for them to decide what to sell then the courts either way it's gets sold off. And as to the selling off your portfolio during a market crash, that is where the smart risk takers make billions. Sell as the market is crashing then take that money and buy buy buy once the market is at it's lowest. It's the little investors that lose everything because people have been led to believe that you have to stay in it when it's going bad. If I would have sold off my portfolio when things started to go down and then bought before they raced back up I would have mad a lot of money. The problem is that I am not smart enough to know when either of those 2 points were.
Then you’d enter bankruptcy to minimize selling assets and leverage them so they can be used to pay down the restructured debt. Disney wiped away a billion plus euros in Euro Disney debt because of TWDC’s existing relationships with the banks who held that debt.

It won’t come to that.
 

Giss Neric

Well-Known Member
As much as I care about this country, I am sad that other third world countries are now relying on their local government to provide food for them to survive. This was from my cousin who works in southeast asia. They can't afford since they're not working. I can't really complain if I don't get my daily fix of food that I'm used to cause I know I can get them and they're available.

The problems this country is facing are still considered as they say "first world problems" compared to what other countries are experiencing.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
the whole point of flattening the curve was to buy time. Time to build hospital builds, acquire supplies, etc. To a great extent, that has been accomplished. We simply can’t afford to print money for 8 months until January when the vaccine might be ready. We just can’t.

Governor Newsom just announced his 6 conditions today.

You’re confusing things. It’s not merely a choice between re-open and lockdown.

Newsom, Cuomo, et al, recognize we can’t stay in total lockdown for long.
That doesn’t mean we go back to crowded theme parks, concerts, etc, etc.

Yes, Newsom laid out conditions for a gradual phased re-opening. Cuomo has talking about gradually opening a valve.
To get that valve completely re-opened— where you can stand in a crowded queue at Disney waiting for FOP for 3 hours... those are the types of things that will come last.

Nobody is saying a total lockdown for 8 months. But mass gatherings will be at least a few months away. With the possibility of much longer.

Nobody know for sure — if you start opening the valve... and it’s June/July and you aren’t getting spikes... maybe you start opening places like Disney in August/ September.
On the other hand, if partial re-openings are accompanied by massive spikes, then places like Disney will have to wait much much longer.

My own guess — and it’s little more than a guess — Disney will partially re-open in late summer/fall with significant capacity and attendance restrictions.
 

Smiley/OCD

Well-Known Member
One of the tastiest got dogs around is NYC street vendors. The big secret is that some vendors never change their own water pan were the hot dogs are floating in. Similar to some barbeque pit grill places in TX. The grill is not cleaned and the meat just keeps cooking daily everyday on the hot grill.
That's why they're called DWDs...Dirty Water Dogs...nothing like a pushcart Sabrett!!
 

Unbanshee

Well-Known Member
Do we think that Disney will open with "the economy", or do we think they'll open on their own (likely delayed) timeline that would align more with their business essentially being a petri dish vs maybe your local restaurant
 

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