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What's Still On and What's Now Off

choco choco

Well-Known Member
Listen to the politicians, but realize they may be using one of the oldest tricks in the book, under promising/over delivering. We need widespread testing, right now we don’t have it, once we have it things will change. When will we have it? That’s the uncertainty that is causing them to make these statements.

It's a really hard question to solve, because - and I'm saying this as someone who is a scientist by trade - biology is really, really, really hard. It's one of those things where politicians/media/laypeople are trying to say blanket terms like "testing" that make almost no sense to the people who are actually working on this stuff.

Testing of what? There are multiple ways to "test" for the disease, depending on what question is being asked. A different test has to be used for the question, "Do you have it?" than from the question, "Have you had it?" than from the other question, "Where do you have it?" than from the question, "How bad do you have it?" Like, each of those things is its own test!

That doesn't even go into the reality that tests results are really only probability statements, because it's really hard to account for the infinite number of ways each person's body is its own unique specimen with unique nuances to their operation. So it's somewhat of an art and statistics game what doctors and officials do once they see the numbers from the test.

I'm not aware yet that there's been any broad consensus of which "test" is agreed upon to be the best method for going forward. And I mean, if we haven't even got that, I don't know how quickly we can get rid of the uncertainty. It seems to be the wild wild west right now, where everyone seems to be developing something for market, even things where the overall usefulness seem to be a reeaaaaal stretch, simply because governments are willing to pay for anything as soon as possible.

Maybe this approach is the best way to go: a great broad race in the hope that something good actually stumbles out. Maybe it would be better if some government agency says, "we are testing only for this, because its most useful in the long term for the greatest number, so everybody only work on this type of test" and we target a more focused approach.

Who knows 🤷‍♀️?
 
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mnelson3

Well-Known Member
Dear lord...I hope you were laughing when you typed “for the 50th” 😳

The longer the parks are closed the more unlikely anything happening will be. Worried about Tron which was going to be one of the highlights for MKs 50th.

Hey there’s always MSEP that can come to the rescue lol. You can imagine those who predicted MSEPs return, way before Covid19 happened, will eat that up like crazy if it actually does come back next year, like they “predicted the future”.
 

WDW862

Well-Known Member
The longer the parks are closed the more unlikely anything happening will be. Worried about Tron which was going to be one of the highlights for MKs 50th.

Hey there’s always MSEP that can come to the rescue lol. You can imagine those who predicted MSEPs return, way before Covid19 happened, will eat that up like crazy if it actually does come back next year, like they “predicted the future”.
When will MSEP finally die?
 

electric

Member
What kind of evidence are you hoping for? A picture of Disney's secret attraction cancellation plans?

The parks are closed. At some point, as they reopen, we'll find out how accurate these rumors were. Until then, insider rumors are the best evidence available.
I love inside info, but I also see most of his posts are super vague......... my uncles cousins dads mom told me this super secret thing but I cant tell you, but i'll let you know that i've heard something BIG
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
I just don’t see Disney and Universal allowing two politicians to destroy their companies because the medical “experts”, who care not about the economy.

Let alone Six Flags, smaller parks, and every restaurant in the country.

How many lives is the entire US economy worth?
The US economy wouldn't exist if it weren't for people. Lives matter.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
It goes both ways. Keeping everyone in a bubble will destroy the economy. I’m sure thousands of businesses are already done for. All for something less deadly flu. And much less deadly than obesity, smoking, driving a car to work.....
Your logic is faulty. You're comparing 1 year of deaths for all the causes you listed vs. roughly 2 months worth of deaths from the virus...AND data that is likely LOWER than reality.
 

Gomer

Premium Member
It goes both ways. Keeping everyone in a bubble will destroy the economy. I’m sure thousands of businesses are already done for. All for something less deadly flu. And much less deadly than obesity, smoking, driving a car to work.....
US estimates in deaths per day:
Car Accidents (2016): 102
Flu(based on 2019-2020 Flu Season): 250-371
Obesity related illnesses (2016): 822
Cigarettes(2018): 1315

Covid-19 deaths in US yesterday 4/14 (with social distancing restrictions in place): 2407
 

Surferboy567

Well-Known Member
anywhere past May, Americans will start to say no more.

Well, the current model suggests that May 1 isn’t feasible for opening. I don’t know about you...but I’d prefer to continue to live then contract a virus and spread it to fellow co-workers for them only to repeat the cycle.

Once again, these aren’t just numbers every number is a person’s life.

Of course, my perception could be different then others but that is how I feel.
 

jpeden

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
Well, the current model suggests that May 1 isn’t feasible for opening. I don’t know about you...but I’d prefer to continue to live then contract a virus and spread it to fellow co-workers for them only to repeat the cycle.

Once again, these aren’t just numbers every number is a person’s life.

Of course, my perception could be different then others but that is how I feel.

We are preventing people from doing what they are ingrained to do - provide for their loved ones and support their families. If we keep putting restrictions on people’s ability to move freely and work there will be a breaking point - and people will start to make calculated risks on if they are willing to risk getting a virus that has infected 0.19% of the US population or not be able to put food on the table and keep a roof over their heads - I know which one most people will choose.

I don’t say that to downplay this - because it’s serious and social distancing is helping, but people have their breaking point and we are pushing up against it. Forced government isolation is accepted in a country like China, it won’t be accepted until August or September or even 2021 in western democracies like some people are suggesting.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I just don’t see Disney and Universal allowing two politicians to destroy their companies because the medical “experts”, who care not about the economy.

Let alone Six Flags, smaller parks, and every restaurant in the country.

How many lives is the entire US economy worth?

I suspect they will obey the law. Especially since if people die from Covid acquires in those parks, they would face billions of dollars in civil suits.

How many lives? Are you willing to personally die do that another family can ride Dumbo?
If the virus were to run unchecked, it would be 500,000-5 million American deaths. At that rate, almost everyone would have losses among their friends and family.

So yes... Disney parks, Universal, sports stadiums, Broadway, .... it’s ugly, but they will all likely stay closed for anywhere from another 3 months to another 2 years.
 

MotownMurder

New Member
I for one would lose all respect for Disney if they ignored medical advice and reopened too early. I know I'm not alone in feeling that way. It would be unwise and shortsighted for Disney to risk permanently tarnishing its brand for the sake of profit.

I guess realistically the issue I see them facing is, if they're in a position where they either reopen or go bankrupt (which the OP said would happen very early on in the thread), what is there to stop them from reopening the parks short of a legal mandate? We can say they'll get bad PR, but from Disney's perspective, what's the use of good PR if the company no longer exists?
 

Surferboy567

Well-Known Member
I guess realistically the issue I see them facing is, if they're in a position where they either reopen or go bankrupt (which the OP said would happen very early on in the thread), what is there to stop them from reopening the parks short of a legal mandate? We can say they'll get bad PR, but from Disney's perspective, what's the use of good PR if the company no longer exists?

Disney isn't going bankrupt yes they probably could be in trouble...but they have weathered so many storms.

Plus, I think they have just raised a bunch of debt.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
I guess realistically the issue I see them facing is, if they're in a position where they either reopen or go bankrupt (which the OP said would happen very early on in the thread), what is there to stop them from reopening the parks short of a legal mandate? We can say they'll get bad PR, but from Disney's perspective, what's the use of good PR if the company no longer exists?

In California at least, the legal green light will surely come only when the medical advice deems it appropriate, so the choice won’t be Disney’s to make anyway. I’m less sure about Florida (if WWE can be considered “essential” there, who knows what other bizarre exceptions may follow?), but I really can’t see Disney walking head-first into the PR disaster of a premature reopening, the cost of which may ultimately prove higher than staying shut a little longer.
 

MotownMurder

New Member
In California at least, the legal green light will surely come only when the medical advice deems it appropriate, so the choice won’t be Disney’s to make anyway. I’m less sure about Florida (if WWE can be considered “essential” there, who knows what other bizarre exceptions may follow?), but I really can’t see Disney walking head-first into the PR disaster of a premature reopening, the cost of which may ultimately prove higher than staying shut a little longer.

I agree that if they can pay the costs of staying shut, then they will pay them. My point is what if they can't? Then what will they do? We've got inside sources saying that if they stay closed through summer then they go bankrupt, and now it looks like they won't open until after August at the very least, so what does Disney do? Do they just shrug their shoulders and say "oh well we had a good run, time to close up shop" on the basis of public health? I feel like that's expecting too much social responsibility out of a giant company.

And of course this doesn't matter at all if it turns out they can buy enough debt to get through the lean times, but if that doesn't work I'm not sure Disney will just fall on their sword and stay closed rather than trying some sort of "phased opening" to try and salvage the situation.
 

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
I agree that if they can pay the costs of staying shut, then they will pay them. My point is what if they can't? Then what will they do? We've got inside sources saying that if they stay closed through summer then they go bankrupt, and now it looks like they won't open until after August at the very least, so what does Disney do? Do they just shrug their shoulders and say "oh well we had a good run, time to close up shop" on the basis of public health? I feel like that's expecting too much social responsibility out of a giant company.

And of course this doesn't matter at all if it turns out they can buy enough debt to get through the lean times, but if that doesn't work I'm not sure Disney will just fall on their sword and stay closed rather than trying some sort of "phased opening" to try and salvage the situation.

As I said in my last post, I don’t think we should take the OP’s words as gospel.
 

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